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The fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel faced a serious crisis on Wednesday as both sides presented conflicting accounts of the agreement. The development raised concerns about the potential collapse of the truce.Israel escalated its military operations in Lebanon, launching its heaviest attack yet on over 100 targets, resulting in at least 254 fatalities. This move directly contradicts the claims of Iran and Pakistan, who brokered the 11th-hour truce and asserted that the ceasefire included Lebanon.In response, Iran halted the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, citing an alleged Israeli breach of the ceasefire. The Fars news agency reported that oil prices had dropped sharply below $100 a barrel following the truce announcement, leading to a global stock market surge.The White House disputed Iran's claims about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, calling the reports 'false' and stating that US President Donald Trump expected it to reopen 'immediately, quickly and safely.' The US signaled its continued adherence to the ceasefire, even as it threatened to unravel.Iran and the US have different interpretations of the agreement. Trump conveyed a version suggesting a 15-point proposal from the US, which included no enrichment of uranium and the destruction of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile. In contrast, Iran's 10-point plan, which Trump initially referred to as a 'workable basis for negotiation,' included the right to enrich uranium and the full lifting of sanctions.The US and Iran are set to engage in talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, this weekend, with a US negotiating team led by Vice-President JD Vance. The talks aim to cement the ceasefire into a more durable peace agreement, but significant gaps remain to be bridged.The situation in the Gulf remains fragile, with the US and Israel claiming to have destroyed Iran's industrial base and significant military assets. Iran, on the other hand, portrays the truce as a victory, with senior politician Ali Akbar Velayati stating that 'America was forced to accept a ceasefire.'

Oil markets experienced a dramatic correction on Wednesday, with Brent crude falling 13.9% to $94.10 per barrel and U.S. WTI futures sliding almost 16% to $95, marking the steepest daily percentage drop since the COVID‑19 crash of April 2020. Despite the plunge, prices remain well above pre‑conflict levels, when Brent traded below $73.The price shock followed President Donald Trump's announcement of a two‑week, conditional ceasefire with Iran, contingent on Tehran reopening the strategic Strait of Hormuz for oil tankers. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, confirmed the strait would be managed by the Iranian military during the grace period, while Iran’s national security council accepted the ceasefire on the condition that U.S. attacks be halted.Equity markets reacted positively. The pan‑European Stoxx 600 surged 4%, its biggest one‑day gain in over four years. In the UK, the FTSE 100 climbed nearly 3% to 10,646 points, its highest level since the early days of the Iran war. Travel and leisure stocks led the rally, with Air France up 14.5%, Lufthansa +11%, IAG +9.5% and TUI +12%.Oil majors were the notable laggards; BP and Shell each lost more than 5% as investors priced in continued supply uncertainty. Asian markets also posted strong gains: Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose over 5%, Australia’s S&P;/ASX 200 jumped 2.55%, South Korea’s Kospi surged 7.5%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 3.1% and China’s CSI300 climbed 3.2%.Bond yields eased on the ceasefire news. The U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield fell to 4.24% from 4.30%, while the UK 10‑year gilt slipped to 4.7% from 4.9%.Safe‑haven assets rallied as well: gold rose more than 2% to $4,812 per ounce, and cryptocurrencies recovered, with Bitcoin up 2.9% to $71,327 and Ether gaining 5.6% to $2,234.Market strategists emphasized the provisional nature of the relief. Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank markets strategist, warned that “investors will be breathing a big sigh of relief, but the durability of the ceasefire remains the key risk.” He noted ongoing Israeli‑Iran strikes and unclear extensions to Lebanon could reignite volatility.Energy analyst Saul Kavonic (MST Financial) described the pause as “an off‑ramp for Trump’s bombastic ultimatum, but not yet an off‑ramp for oil markets or the war.” He expects a limited release of tankers from Hormuz in May, which would ease storage pressure without boosting production.Capital Economics chief economist Neil Shearing highlighted potential transit fees for Hormuz passage, estimating a $1‑2 million charge per tanker—equivalent to roughly $1 per barrel—would have a modest effect on global oil prices but could signal a de‑facto partial nationalisation of the route.TD Securities senior strategist Prashant Newnaha cautioned that “renewed escalation cannot be ruled out, but markets are treating this ceasefire as the real deal, and all parties will sell it as a major win.” He added that oil prices are unlikely to revert to pre‑war levels, keeping inflationary pressures alive.Earlier in the week, U.S. equities swung sharply, with the S&P; 500 dipping 1.2% before rebounding after Pakistan’s prime minister urged Trump to extend the deadline and keep the strait open.The conflict, which began after the U.S. and Israel struck Iranian targets in late February, has choked the Strait of Hormuz—through which about 20% of global oil and LNG supplies flow—fueling a worldwide energy crunch.

Shell is poised to report a substantial increase in profits from its commodity trading activities in the first quarter, driven by recent market volatility sparked by the Iran crisis. The energy giant's chemicals and products unit, which encompasses its primary oil trading desk, is expected to see a significant boost in trading results.The company's trading windfall is particularly notable in its renewable energy division, with predicted earnings ranging from $200m to $700m in the first quarter, up from approximately $100m in the previous quarter. This surge is attributed to the historic price rises in oil and gas markets following Iran's retaliation to US-Israeli aggression, which included throttling energy trade through the Strait of Hormuz and launching strikes against key energy infrastructure in the Gulf region.However, Shell's gas production is expected to decline by about 5% to between 880,000 and 920,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, compared to 948,000 in the fourth quarter, due to the impact of the Middle East conflict on its assets in Qatar. A strike damaged Shell's assets at the Ras Laffan liquified natural gas (LNG) complex in Qatar, contributing to the expected decline.Despite these challenges, Shell's boss, Wael Sawan, has warned that Europe could face an energy and fuel shortage in April without a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The company is working with governments to address the oil and gas supply crisis, which has already led to energy rationing in some Asian countries.

The US and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with Tehran temporarily reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Israel has also agreed to the ceasefire. The plan, submitted via Pakistani intermediaries, includes 10 key demands, such as:The lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions on Iran.Continued Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz.US military withdrawal from the Middle East.An end to attacks on Iran and its allies.The release of frozen Iranian assets.A UN security council resolution making any deal binding.The Iranian foreign minister stated that safe passage through the strait would be allowed under Iranian military management, with Iran and Oman charging fees on ships transiting through the strait. The US has yet to publicly state if it will attend negotiations in Islamabad on Friday.Key concerns include Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, which could have significant implications for global oil supplies and regional stability. The US is unlikely to agree to Iran's maximalist demands, but they may form the basis for talks.The ceasefire comes as Trump's approval ratings have hit their lowest level ever, with sizeable majorities of Americans opposed to the war and frustrated by the rising cost of petrol.

President Donald Trump issued a stark warning that the United States would eradicate Iran’s “civilisation” unless the regime reopens the Strait of Hormuz and complies with his demands. The statement, posted on his Truth Social account less than twelve hours before the self‑imposed deadline, declared that a whole civilisation could die “tonight, never to be brought back again.” Trump set the cutoff for compliance at 8 p.m. Washington time (00:00 GMT) on Tuesday, framing the moment as a decisive point in what he called a long‑standing struggle against Iranian extortion and corruption. For more than two weeks, the president has threatened to strike Iran’s civilian infrastructure—bridges, power stations, roads and other non‑military assets—if his terms are not met. Legal analysts have warned that such actions would constitute a war crime under international law. “It’s horrific. It’s pure evil. It’s disqualifying,” said Yasmine Taeb, legislative and political director of MPower Change Action Fund, condemning the president’s rhetoric as that of “a deranged, unstable madman.” She called for a stronger response from both U.S. lawmakers and the global community. Democratic leaders reacted forcefully. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer labeled Trump “an extremely sick person,” while House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries urged Republican colleagues to “put patriotic duty over party and stop the madness,” warning that the conflict could spiral into a world war. Representative Rashida Tlaib suggested invoking the 25th Amendment to remove Trump, citing the recent bombing of a school in Minab that killed over 170 children. Congressional attempts to curb the president’s war powers have stalled; a recent resolution to limit his authority failed to pass, leaving the legal basis for the campaign in question. Critics argue that launching a military operation without congressional approval violates the U.S. Constitution, which reserves the declaration of war to Congress. Republican reactions were muted. Representative Mike Lawler downplayed the threat, stating that any strikes would target only Iran’s energy and civilian infrastructure to cripple the regime’s economy, and affirmed that Trump is acting within his constitutional authority as commander‑in‑chief. The conflict, which began on February 28 when the United States and Israel allegedly killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior officials, has already claimed more than 2,000 lives, including civilians in schools, residential blocks and medical facilities. Iran’s retaliatory rocket and drone attacks have hit Israeli and U.S. assets across the Middle East, while Iranian forces have blocked the Strait of Hormuz, driving global energy prices higher. Despite the heavy toll, Iran’s governing structure appears intact, bolstered by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, designated by the United States as a terrorist organization. No major defections or anti‑government protests have emerged, and Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has assumed a leading role. Trump, while maintaining a hardline stance, left a narrow window for diplomacy, suggesting that “maybe something revolutionary wonderful can happen.” He framed the deadline as “one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the world,” promising that “47 years of extortion, corruption, and death will finally end.” Vice President J.D. Vance echoed the president’s message, warning Iran that the United States possesses additional, undisclosed tools and will employ them if Tehran does not alter its conduct, emphasizing the U.S. desire for free flow of oil and gas.

Iranian officials have urged young people to form human chains around the country's power plants, as tensions escalate with the US and Israel. The call to action comes as US President Donald Trump threatens massive strikes on civilian infrastructure if Iran doesn't reopen the Strait of Hormuz.Iranian media showed people gathering outside electricity stations, waving Iranian flags and holding up banners. In Dezful, people gathered on a 1,700-year-old bridge. The country's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, said 14 million people had signed up to fight for their country and declared their readiness to sacrifice their lives in defence of Iran.The US and Israel carried out waves of preparatory strikes that appeared to knock off course the chances of a last-minute ceasefire deal before Trump's 8pm ET (1am BST) deadline for Iran to reopen the strait. Attacks on civilian infrastructure amount to war crimes, legal experts say.Alireza Rahimi, identified by Iranian state television as the secretary of the Supreme Council of Youth and Adolescents, issued a video message calling on young people to form human chains around power plants. He asked them to gather on Tuesday at 2pm around the power plants, which he described as national assets and capital.Iran has formed human-chain demonstrations, also known as human shields, in the past around its nuclear sites at times of heightened tensions with the west. A man in Tehran said his household had collected basic necessities and equipment to charge their mobile phones, in preparation to flee the capital if necessary.The indirect negotiations between the US and Iran are continuing, largely by passing messages through Pakistan. However, the intermediaries said they feared that Israel was bombing the chances of reaching an agreement.

When Elle Middlemas turned 18, she began wondering whether she owned a Child Trust Fund (CTF) – a government‑backed savings account created for children born between 1 September 2002 and 2 January 2011. Her search hit a dead end; she could not confirm if she was entitled to any money and an email to HMRC yielded no response.Middlemas, a Whitby college student, explained that the loss of her mother at age 11 left her with little guidance. “My sister is 21 and spent three years looking for a fund and found nothing, so we assumed we didn’t have one,” she said, expressing the frustration felt by many of her peers.She and her sister are part of an estimated 758,000 people aged 18‑23 who have unclaimed CTFs. Collectively, these dormant accounts hold roughly £1.5 bn, a substantial sum that disproportionately belongs to low‑income families who are often unaware of its existence.Advocates are now pressing the government to automatically release CTFs when holders reach 21 years of age. Experts estimate that such a policy could inject up to £286 m directly into the pockets of young people who need it most.Middlemas finally learned of her entitlement after a conversation with a friend’s parent six months after her birthday. She discovered the Share Foundation, a charity that helps reconnect youths with their funds, and located a NatWest account bearing her name.“I had £700 sitting in my bank and thought, ‘What is going on?’ My sister also had one but never knew how to access it,” she recalled. The sisters plan to use the money to support university expenses and repay debts, underscoring the tangible impact of the scheme.The CTF programme was launched by the Labour government in 2005 to encourage parental savings. Every child received a £250 government contribution, with an additional £250 for those from low‑income families or in local authority care. Parents could add up to £9,000 per year, and any investment gains accrued until the child turned 18.If a parent failed to open an account within 12 months of birth, HMRC would create one on the child’s behalf. Today, the average value of a CTF stands at about £2,200.More than two‑thirds of the six million original recipients are now over 18 and eligible to claim their funds, with HMRC‑allocated accounts representing 28 % of all CTFs.Geographically, the North‑East of England has the highest concentration of HMRC‑allocated accounts, totalling £48 m. Across the UK, youths from the most disadvantaged 15 % of families hold accounts averaging £2,900 in value.Gavin Oldham, chief executive of the Share Foundation, warned that the scheme is hampered by poor communication, limited financial education, and “policy neglect”. He indicated the charity is considering a judicial review to compel the government to release the unclaimed assets.Oldham noted that the charity has already linked “well over 100,000 accounts to young adults”, yet the “sheer quantum of these unclaimed accounts remains a major problem”.“It is strange to find a government which expresses concern over youth poverty while doing so little to deliver on a groundbreaking scheme,” Oldham added.The charity’s proposal to release HMRC‑allocated funds automatically at 21 would free roughly £500 m, including £350 mOldham cautioned that a legal challenge, while potentially successful, could delay payouts for years, leaving vulnerable youths “denied their birthright for far too long”.Beyond immediate release, the Share Foundation is urging the creation of a new, targeted scheme for low‑income youths that embeds a financial‑awareness component, allowing participants to top up their funds through education‑linked incentives.Labour MP Laura Kyrke‑Smith echoed these concerns, describing the CTF system as “confusing and opaque” and calling for proactive tracing of account holders and clearer public information.HMRC responded that it is “directly sending every eligible young person information to help them find their child trust fund”, while also raising awareness via social media, broadcast interviews, and an online tracing tool. The agency added that banks, building societies, and investment firms managing the funds share responsibility for communicating with account holders.

Universal Music Group (UMG), the world's largest music company, has received a takeover offer from billionaire Bill Ackman's hedge fund, Pershing Square. The deal values UMG at over €50bn (£44bn). Pershing Square, based in New York, has offered a cash and stock deal to acquire the business, which is home to renowned artists such as Taylor Swift and Elton John.Ackman stated that while UMG, led by British-born Sir Lucian Grainge, has done an excellent job in nurturing its artist roster and generating strong business performance, its share price has lagged due to issues unrelated to the performance of its music business. He specifically mentioned the delay in UMG's US listing, underutilization of its balance sheet, and uncertainty around the French conglomerate Bolloré Group's 18% stake in the company.Shares in UMG, listed in Amsterdam since 2021, have lost more than a quarter of their value in the past year. The company is one of the 'big three' record labels, alongside Sony Music Entertainment and Warner Music Group, with a diverse roster ranging from classical music to stars like Adele, Drake, and Ariana Grande.Ackman also cited a 'lack of investor credit' in the company's valuation of its €2.7bn stake in the music streaming service, Spotify. Pershing Square, which Ackman established in 2004, controls over $26bn in assets and bought a 10% stake in UMG in 2021.As part of the proposed deal, Pershing Square would add Michael Ovitz, a veteran talent agent, as chair, along with two representatives from Pershing Square to UMG's board. The deal would also involve a new employment contract and compensation arrangement for Sir Lucian Grainge. Under the terms, UMG would merge with a blank-cheque company set up by Pershing Square and then list on the New York Stock Exchange. Shareholders would receive a total of €9.4bn in cash and 0.77 shares in the new company for every Universal share they own, representing a 78% premium compared to the company's closing share price on Thursday.

Pakistan has put forward a two-phase plan to bring an end to the ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, and to reopen the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz. This initiative has been shared with both Iran and the United States, and is currently being considered by both sides.According to sources, Esmaeil Baghaei, spokesman for Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, has acknowledged Pakistan's diplomatic efforts. The plan, tentatively referred to as the 'Islamabad Accord', involves an immediate ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with 15 to 20 days allocated to finalize a broader settlement.The proposed agreement would include Iranian commitments not to pursue nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets. However, Tehran has responded by stating that it will not reopen the strait as part of a temporary ceasefire, and has expressed skepticism about the proposal.The US has not yet responded to Pakistan's plan, while Iran has rejected a 15-point plan put forward by the US last month, describing it as 'illogical'. The conflict has resulted in significant human suffering, with over 2,000 people killed in Iran since the war began on February 28.The situation remains volatile, with Trump threatening 'hell' on Tehran if a deal is not reached by the end of Tuesday. The international community is closely watching the developments, as the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical artery for global fuel supplies, with over 20 percent of the world's oil and gas passing through the waterway.