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The ongoing conflict in Iran, now in its 18th day, has sparked concerns about the global economy's stability. Typically, during such periods of uncertainty, investors flock to safe-haven assets like gold, causing its price to rise. However, gold prices have remained broadly steady at around $5,000 an ounce.On Tuesday, spot gold was almost flat at $5,001.36 per ounce at 11:00 GMT, and US gold futures for April delivery rose just 0.1 percent to $5,005.20. This lack of movement is surprising, given that gold prices typically shoot up during economic crises as investors look for safe havens to shelter their cash.Experts suggest several reasons for this unexpected stability. Traders may be anticipating that the US Federal Reserve will halt interest rate cuts and perhaps even raise rates in response to rising inflation, making dollar assets more attractive and gold, which pays no interest, less so. Additionally, gold had already risen significantly at the start of the year, which may be contributing to its current stability.Another factor is the strengthened dollar, which provides an alternative safe-haven choice. Higher oil prices, which have soared above $100 per barrel due to the conflict, may also lead to higher inflation, making the dollar more attractive.Experts also note that gold has become a very speculative asset, and typical gold investors, including central banks, tend to be more risk-averse and may have been spooked by the volatility of gold in the current climate.For the price of gold to shift dramatically, two things would need to happen: a clear indication from the Federal Reserve that interest rates may be cut further, despite inflationary pressure, and a change in perception as to the length of the war.

Iran has started to permit a limited but increasing number of commercial vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz, as indicated by ship tracking data. On Monday, eight non-Iranian flagged vessels were detected in the strategic waterway. This represents a notable increase, with MarineTraffic recording nine transits on Monday and Sunday, compared to just five over the preceding two days. According to Michelle Wiese Bockmann, an analyst at Windward, the growing number of ships rerouting via Iran's territorial waters suggests that Tehran is granting 'permission-based transits to friendly countries.' The Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage that normally carries about one-fifth of global oil supplies, has seen traffic plummet by more than 95 percent since the onset of the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran. This drastic reduction has led to a surge in oil prices, which have risen above $100 per barrel, an increase of over 40 percent. Iranian officials have issued mixed messages regarding the strait's status. Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araghchi stated that the strait was 'open, but closed to our enemies'. Conversely, a spokesperson for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned earlier in the month that any ship attempting passage would be set ablaze. The situation has drawn international attention, with US President Donald Trump asserting that Washington does not require other countries' assistance to secure shipping traffic through the strait. Meanwhile, the US military reported dropping bunker buster bombs on 'hardened' Iranian missile sites located near the strait, citing the risk these posed to international shipping.

Asian stock markets experienced a significant downturn on Monday, with South Korea's KOSPI index plummeting 6.5% and Japan's Nikkei 225 falling 3.5%. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong tumbled more than 4%, while Australia's ASX 200 closed 0.75% lower and New Zealand's NZX 50 was down 0.7%.The turmoil was triggered by US President Donald Trump's ultimatum to Iran, warning the country to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face the destruction of its energy infrastructure within 48 hours. The strait is a critical waterway through which about one-fifth of global oil and natural gas exports usually transit.Trump's threat has added to fears of a cascading global energy crisis as the US and Israel's war on Iran approaches its one-month mark with no clear end in sight. Oil prices have surged more than 50% since the start of the war, which began on February 28. Analysts warn that energy prices are likely to rise significantly further if the strait remains effectively closed, with some predicting oil to hit $150 or even $200 a barrel.In response to Trump's ultimatum, Tehran has warned it will completely close the waterway and launch retaliatory attacks on energy and water infrastructure across the region if Trump follows through on his threat. The deadline for Trump's ultimatum is set to expire at 23:44 GMT on Monday.European markets also saw significant losses, with London's FTSE 100 down 1.4% and the DAX 40 in Frankfurt falling about 2% in morning trading. On Wall Street, US stocks saw significant losses ahead of Monday's opening, with futures tied to the S&P; 500 down about 0.8% as of 07:00 GMT.

The United Kingdom has strongly condemned 'reckless Iranian threats' after reports emerged of a missile launch targeting a joint US-UK military base on the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia. However, Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has denied any involvement in the alleged missile launch.According to US media reports, two ballistic missiles were fired at the base, with one reportedly failing mid-flight and the other intercepted by a US warship. The incident occurred approximately 4,000km (2,500 miles) from Iran, raising concerns about Iran's missile capabilities.Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, described the missile launches as a 'false flag' operation, suggesting that Israel might have been behind them. This denial comes as the conflict between Iran, the US, and Israel continues to escalate.The UK has condemned the alleged attack, with Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper stating that the UK would not be drawn into a wider conflict in the Middle East. The UK's Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, noted that the UK would not use a base in Cyprus for Iran-related operations.Israel's military chief, Eyal Zamir, claimed that Iran used 'a two-stage intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of 4,000km' to target the US-UK base. Zamir stated that these missiles pose a threat to European capitals, including Berlin, Paris, and Rome.The incident has significant implications for the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, with analysts suggesting that Iran's missile capabilities could change the calculus of the war for the US and its allies. The conflict has already led to a rise in global oil prices and increased tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran.

US President Donald Trump has taken to social media to mock UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, sharing a Saturday Night Live (SNL) skit that depicts Starmer panicking at the prospect of a call with Trump. The skit, which aired on the premiere of the new British version of SNL, shows Starmer, played by George Fouracres, trying to avoid a call with Trump.The video was shared on the same evening that Trump and Starmer spoke about the escalating tensions in the Middle East and the US-Israel war on Iran. During their call, the two leaders focused on the need to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively blocked by Iran since the US and Israel launched strikes on February 28.The closure of the strait has sent oil prices soaring, creating the biggest energy crisis since the 1970s. Trump has repeatedly criticized Starmer for not doing enough to support the US efforts to break the blockade, accusing him of being a 'coward' and saying he is 'disappointed' in him.Starmer has asserted that any attempt to reopen the Strait of Hormuz needs careful consideration and a viable plan, and that his number one priority is to protect British interests and de-escalate tensions. The UK government has given authorization for the US to use its military bases to carry out strikes on Iranian missile sites that were attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

President Donald Trump has announced a significant diplomatic pause in the escalating conflict with Iran, instructing the US military to delay any strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period. The announcement comes as Trump claims both nations have reached "major points of agreement" and are seeking a "complete and total resolution" of hostilities in the Middle East.This decision follows a tense 48-hour ultimatum issued by Trump on Saturday, in which he threatened to "obliterate" Iranian power plants if Tehran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait is a critical global chokepoint, handling approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas; its closure has already triggered a severe global energy crisis and spiked oil prices.Speaking from Florida, Trump stated that Iran is eager to make a deal and that his envoys, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, have been engaged in talks with a "respected" Iranian leader. For a resolution to materialize, Trump asserted that Iran must relinquish its enriched uranium stockpile, and he suggested the strategic Strait of Hormuz would be reopened very soon if an agreement is reached.The prospect of de-escalation provided immediate relief to global financial markets. Wall Street stocks saw early gains on Monday, while oil prices—which had soared since the onset of hostilities—experienced a sharp decline. The easing of tensions is viewed as a potential "off-ramp" for the war, which analysts suggest may be an attempt by Trump to secure a dignified exit from the conflict.While Iran has not officially confirmed the talks, its Foreign Ministry suggested the pause is a tactical maneuver to lower energy prices. However, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that any attack on Iranian power plants would trigger a massive retaliation, including strikes on US bases and economic infrastructure. Analysts believe the likelihood of Iran refusing this offer is remote, as the country seeks to avoid further devastation.

Global stock markets swung wildly on Monday as investors reacted to US President Donald Trump's decision to postpone military strikes on Iranian power plants. The move led to a relief rally in European markets, with the French Cac 40, Spanish Ibex, and German Dax all rising by 0.8%, 1%, and 1.2% respectively.The FTSE 100 share index, which had fallen by almost 1.5% in early trading, reversed course to gain 0.4% before paring back to close down 0.2%. US markets were up more than 1% in early afternoon trading on Wall Street.Oil prices, which had been rising after Trump threatened to strike Iranian infrastructure, dropped sharply. Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell 10% to $101 a barrel. The UK month-ahead gas prices fell 6% to 142p a therm.Trump announced on his social media platform Truth Social that the US and Iran had “very good and productive conversations” over the past two days regarding “a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East”. He said he had instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period, subject to the success of ongoing meetings and discussions.The global economy has been bracing for much higher oil prices due to disruption in the strait of Hormuz, with Goldman Sachs forecasting Brent crude will average $85 a barrel this year, up from previous expectations of $77 a barrel. Brent hit $119.50 a barrel earlier this month, the highest since the war began.