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Djibouti, a country with a population of less than a million people and no significant natural resources, has become a crucial hub for foreign military bases. The nation's strategic location at the entrance to the Red Sea, a vital maritime chokepoint through which roughly 12 percent of global maritime trade passes daily, has made it an attractive location for global powers.The country's President, Ismail Omar Guelleh, has leveraged Djibouti's strategic importance to advance his own aims, welcoming bases from the US, China, France, Japan, and Italy. These countries pay significant fees for the privilege of hosting their bases, with the US paying $65 million annually, France $30 million, China $20 million, and Italy and Japan over $3 million each.The Bab-el-Mandeb strait, a narrow corridor barely 30 kilometers wide, is a critical passage for global trade and communication cables. The region's instability, particularly with the US and Israel at war with Iran, has heightened Djibouti's importance. Federico Donelli, author of 'Power Competition in the Red Sea,' notes that Djibouti sits at the center of many global interests, including trade, shipping, and fiber optic connectivity.Djibouti's base-for-cash model is part of a broader development strategy, including significant infrastructure investment from Chinese firms and a new railway linking landlocked Ethiopia to the coast. However, the country's economic benefits have not trickled down to its citizens, with official unemployment near 40 percent and over one in five people living in extreme poverty.The opposition leader, Daher Ahmed Farah, has criticized Guelleh's rule, stating that the country's strategic position and hosting of military bases have not benefited the Djiboutian people. The US embassy has warned Americans to avoid areas near Camp Lemonnier, citing threats against US interests, while Finance Minister Ilyas Dawaleh has expressed concerns about the Iran war risks pushing Djibouti into deeper economic uncertainty.

The temporary cease‑fire in the US‑Israel‑Iran war has given Iran and China a strategic opening to challenge the US dollar’s supremacy in global finance. Both nations share a common objective: to reduce reliance on the greenback, especially in the oil sector where, according to a 2023 JP Morgan estimate, roughly 80% of transactions are settled in dollars. In a practical step toward this goal, Iran’s de‑facto toll‑booth system in the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint that handles about one‑fifth of the world’s oil and LNG shipments—has started accepting transit fees in Chinese yuan. Lloyd’s List reported that at least two vessels had already paid in yuan by March 25, and China’s Ministry of Commerce later acknowledged the reports on social media. Iran’s embassy in Zimbabwe even called for the introduction of a “petroyuan” to the global oil market, underscoring the political symbolism of the move. While Tehran pledged to guarantee safe passage for two weeks under a US‑brokered cease‑fire, Beijing declined to comment. Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff told Al Jazeera that Iran’s actions serve a dual purpose: they “poke a thumb in the United States’s eye” and provide a practical alternative to dollar‑based sanctions. Rogoff added that Iran’s shift to yuan aligns with China’s broader effort to redenominate trade among BRICS nations. For both countries, the yuan offers a way to sidestep US sanctions and lower transaction costs. Their trade relationship, cemented by a 25‑year strategic partnership signed in 2021, sees China buying over 80% of Iran’s oil—often at discounted rates—while Iran imports Chinese machinery, electronics, chemicals, and industrial components. Data from Kpler and TankerTrackers indicate that, despite the conflict, Iran’s oil exports to China have remained near pre‑war levels, ranging between 12 million and 13.7 million barrels in the first two weeks of hostilities. China’s ambition to elevate the yuan is long‑standing. President Xi Jinping, in a 2024 address, expressed hope that the yuan would become a global reserve currency. Yet significant hurdles remain: the yuan is not freely convertible due to strict capital controls, and the Chinese financial system is perceived as opaque, limiting broader adoption. According to the IMF, the dollar still dominated global foreign‑exchange reserves at 57% last year, far ahead of the euro’s 20% and the yuan’s modest 2%. Cross‑border trade settled in yuan rose to 3.7% in 2024, up from under 1% in 2012, per S&P; Global—an encouraging but limited shift. Natixis chief economist Alicia Garcia‑Herrero cautioned that the Strait of Hormuz experiment adds only “incremental pressure” and that a true “de‑dollarisation” would require Gulf states, which have priced oil in dollars since the 1970s in exchange for US security guarantees. European analyst Hosuk Lee‑Makiyama highlighted that China’s ability to supply Iran with essential goods makes the yuan a viable alternative, a dynamic not possible for Europe or Japan. He described China as the closest the world has seen to a “manufacturing one‑stop shop.” Consultancy founder Dan Steinbock echoed that while the dollar’s supremacy is unlikely to crumble overnight, the gradual increase in yuan usage could “chip away” at US dominance in specific sectors over time. Rogoff concluded that the long‑term impact hinges on the war’s outcome. If Iran and China emerge stronger, many countries may diversify away from the dollar to avoid US‑imposed financial constraints. Conversely, a decisive US victory could reinforce dollar hegemony for the foreseeable future.

The planet is in the grip of an unprecedented climate emergency. The past three years rank as the hottest on record, emissions remain at historic highs and the world is edging ever closer to the critical 1.5°C threshold that scientists warned must not be crossed. In response, a trio of creators – actor Megan Prescott, filmmaker Bree Essrig and self‑described “climate narrative strategist” Jessica Riches – have launched Headline Newds, a series of bite‑size videos released through the non‑profit arm of Adam McKay’s Yellow Dot Studios. The series pairs climate data with the visual style of OnlyFans models, aiming to capture attention where traditional messaging has struggled. The concept echoes McKay’s own gamble with The Big Short (2015), where he hired Margot Robbie to explain complex mortgage‑backed securities while bathing. By swapping finance for climate, the creators hope to avoid the “long, boring explanation” that often alienates viewers. The debut episode, titled The Sun is Daddy, features Prescott gradually disrobing while arguing that solar power could satisfy global energy demand using less land than the fossil‑fuel sector. She frames the argument with the line “Daddy is a giver,” blending sensuality with a factual claim. Provocation is intentional. The Yellow Dot website admits the clips are likely to be taken down on Instagram and YouTube for breaching content policies, but they will remain accessible on OnlyFans, a platform perceived as more tolerant of adult‑oriented material. That platform may also be where the series makes its biggest splash. While mainstream users might approach the videos with a pre‑formed understanding, OnlyFans subscribers are less likely to expect in‑depth climate analysis, potentially making the stark facts about “impending global collapse” more memorable. Only the first episode is currently live, and critics note that the solar‑energy message is already widely accepted, questioning whether the series is reaching beyond basic awareness. Future installments promise sharper focus. An upcoming episode, Spank Banks, will see dominatrix Eva Oh name the banks that profit most from fossil‑fuel projects while delivering a literal spanking. Another short clip features model Sabrina Jade outlining the oil industry’s tactics to downplay its environmental impact, all within a two‑minute runtime that includes more “pelvic grinding” than typical educational content. Whether Headline Newds proves a catalyst for change remains uncertain. It has already generated the media buzz it sought, but its capacity to translate provocation into concrete climate action will likely be judged by any follow‑up series and measurable shifts in audience behaviour. Headline Newds can be watched on YouTube, Instagram and OnlyFans.

Shares of Close Brothers, a UK-based specialist lender, jumped 17% on Wednesday following the bank's announcement that it can easily absorb the cost of a £320m compensation bill related to the car finance scandal. The Financial Conduct Authority's (FCA) compensation scheme, finalized last week, aims to address the issue of drivers being overcharged for loans due to commission payments between lenders and car dealers.The bank expects to pay out approximately £320m in compensation, which is 'broadly similar' to previous estimates and only £26m more than the £294m already set aside. Close Brothers stated that this additional amount can be 'comfortably absorbed by existing capital resources,' ensuring the group remains well-positioned to continue its strategy.The FCA's compensation scheme estimates that victims will receive an average payout of £830. This development has provided relief to investors, especially after concerns were raised by short seller Viceroy Research, which suggested that Close Brothers might need to significantly increase its provision for car finance losses.In contrast, Close Brothers' rival, FirstRand, announced hours earlier that it would sell its UK operations, citing frustration with the FCA's compensation scheme, which it described as 'deeply flawed.' FirstRand stated it would need to raise an extra £510m to cover compensation costs, taking its total provisions to £750m, and potentially slash its earnings forecast and offload its UK business.

The US and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, leading to a decrease in UK interest rate hike expectations. City traders now predict only one rate rise by December, taking the Bank of England's base rate back to 4%. Previously, markets had priced in two rate hikes as tensions escalated, with Donald Trump warning of severe consequences if Iran did not comply with his demands. However, with the ceasefire in place, rate expectations have fallen, and only 32 basis points of hikes are now expected for the year, down from 62 basis points the previous day. The decline in rate expectations is linked to the significant drop in oil prices, with Brent crude down 13.3% to $94.71 a barrel. This decrease in oil prices could bring relief to UK consumers, potentially leading to lower petrol prices and easing inflationary pressures. Despite the current relief, experts caution that mortgage rates may not fall quickly. The average two-year fixed-rate mortgage has risen to 5.90%, the highest since July 2024. Analysts suggest that while the ceasefire may slow or pause mortgage rate increases, it is unlikely to trigger sharp falls. Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, notes that the ceasefire brings relief for UK consumers but emphasizes that the chances of a rate hike by the Bank of England have been reduced. He adds that the 'heady days' of sustained rate cuts are unlikely to return in the short term. Adam French, head of consumer finance at Moneyfacts, advises that while easing tensions have pushed down expectations for future interest rate rises, mortgage rates are likely to remain higher for some time yet, with lenders cautious about making sudden moves due to market volatility.

A recent investigation by The Sentry has uncovered that Libyan businessman Ahmed Gadalla facilitated hundreds of millions of dollars in loans to support Khalifa Haftar's failed 2019-2020 assault on Tripoli. The report alleges that Gadalla, a key enabler for Haftar family members, secured $300m in loans from a minor bank based in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE), ahead of the offensive. The months-long campaign by forces loyal to Haftar to seize the Libyan capital from the United Nations-recognised government resulted in hundreds of deaths and displaced hundreds of thousands of people. The cost of the campaign was significant, with an estimated $700 million effort mobilised upfront. The investigation suggests that the money likely helped finance operations, including payments to Russia's mercenary Wagner Group, which supported Haftar's offensive. After Haftar's offensive collapsed, the loans remained largely unpaid, leaving the Libyan public to bear the financial burden. Gadalla has faced no accountability, and the report warns that he has since expanded his influence across eastern Libya's financial system, exerting control over key banks and facilitating large-scale letter-of-credit fraud and laundering illicit profits. The Sentry's report also links Gadalla to efforts to procure and transfer military equipment to Sudan, in violation of a UN arms embargo. The group has called on Western governments to impose targeted sanctions on Gadalla and his network, warning that without concerted international action, Libya faces the continued erosion of its economic foundations.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a warning that emerging economies are facing a heightened risk of financial instability due to their increased reliance on market-based finance, particularly from hedge funds and investment funds. A cumulative $4tn flowed into emerging markets last year from outside the formal banking sector, which can bring benefits but also poses significant risks.The IMF's analysis suggests that this type of financing can be more volatile than traditional bank financing and is more likely to be withdrawn suddenly in times of financial stress. This can lead to abrupt retrenchments, intensify external financing pressures, raise borrowing costs, and trigger sharp currency depreciations, ultimately weighing on economic growth.The IMF highlights that some countries are already experiencing these challenges, particularly in the context of the war in the Middle East. Several emerging markets are experiencing a reversal of capital flows from non-resident non-bank investors, which can have a significant impact on their economies.The IMF also notes that hedge funds and mutual funds have the highest propensity to withdraw during market volatility, while pension funds and insurers tend to be more cautious. Additionally, the IMF warns about the growing flows of stablecoins into emerging economies, which can be vulnerable to wider fluctuations in cryptocurrency markets.The IMF's managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, warned that the conflict will lead to higher prices and slower growth, adding that even if the war were to stop today, there would be a lingering negative impact on the rest of the world.

The UK government announced a modest concession for millions of graduates with Plan 2 student loans: a cap on the interest rate at 6% starting 1 September 2026.The decision is presented as a safeguard against a possible surge in inflation linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, rather than a full policy reversal.The 6% ceiling will apply both to undergraduate Plan 2 loans and to postgraduate Plan 3 loans taken out by borrowers in England and Wales.For many borrowers the cap trims the current 6.2% rate by 0.2 percentage points, meaning their debt will grow marginally slower; the repayment threshold of 9% of earnings above the annual limit remains unchanged.Interest rates are normally set each academic year using the Retail Price Index (RPI), which currently sits at 3.2% and is expected to rise – the March 2026 RPI is due on 22 April and analysts anticipate a figure above the February rate of 3.6%.Ministers say the cap “removes the risk of any temporary increase in inflation causing loan balances to compound at an unsustainable rate,” protecting borrowers from rates above 6%.Prime Minister Keir Starmer has pledged to review the student‑loan system, and speculation persists that more extensive reforms could be announced later in the year.The National Union of Students hailed the cap as “a huge win” but warned that without adjustments to the repayment threshold the relief will be limited.Financial planner Ian Futcher of Quilter added that the cap offers “reassurance but not relief,” emphasizing the need for broader changes to ease graduate finances.

Israel's newly approved $271 billion budget has sparked concerns over its implications for the occupied West Bank, with a significant portion allocated to settlement expansion and far-right ideological projects. The budget, the largest in Israel's history, was passed early on Monday from a fortified bunker, amid the ongoing conflict with Iran.The ruling coalition has bypassed legal frameworks to direct billions towards these goals, citing national security concerns. A key allocation is $129.5 million to the Ministry of Settlement and National Missions, which authorizes illegal Jewish-only settlements and outposts on Palestinian land.Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, a settler himself, has been granted sweeping powers over the occupied territory and has openly opposed the two-state solution. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has echoed this sentiment, stating there will be no Palestinian state west of the Jordan River.The budget also includes funds for projects such as building bypass roads through Palestinian towns, providing protection for illegal settlement outposts, and incorporating armed settlers into the state's civilian security apparatus. These moves are seen as entrenching the occupation and empowering far-right elements of Netanyahu's government.The allocation comes against a backdrop of surging violence by settlers and Israeli armed forces' raids on Palestinian communities across the West Bank, which have intensified since the onset of Israel's war on Gaza in October 2023. UN data shows nearly 3,000 attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank over the past two years.The budget's passage has highlighted divisions within the Israeli opposition, with Yair Lapid accusing rival parties of being more focused on criticizing his party than uniting against the governing coalition. Analysts warn that the spending bill will have severe long-term consequences, including further destabilizing the region and undermining any future viable Palestinian state.