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World Economy Apr 18, 2026

Multi‑billion‑Dollar Prediction‑Market Bets Align with US‑Israel Strikes on Iran, Sparking Insider‑Trading Investigation

Traders placed over $1 billion in prediction‑market contracts that precisely matched key moments in…
Sixteen Polymarket accounts each earned more than $100,000 by correctly forecasting the U.S. airstrike on Iran on 27 February, while a single user, known as “Magamyman,” pocketed over $550,000 by betting on the removal of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei moments before his death in an Israeli strike.Just before former President Donald Trump announced a temporary cease‑fire on 7 April, traders placed a staggering $950 million wager that oil prices would fall – a bet that proved accurate.These synchronized bets, which also included $855,000 in contracts predicting the 27 February strike and $580 million in oil‑futures positions placed minutes before Trump’s “productive talks” comment on 23 March, have raised alarms about possible insider information being used in online prediction markets.Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi now allow contracts on virtually any news event, blurring the line between traditional sports betting and financial speculation. The ease of accessing commodity derivatives, especially oil futures, amplifies the potential for profit – and for regulatory scrutiny.Law professors Joshua Mitts (Columbia) and Andrew Verstein (UCLA) note that while the trades could be “lucky,” the timing and scale suggest “hallmarks of suspicious activity” that merit investigation. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has reportedly opened inquiries into the March 23 and April 7 oil‑futures trades, though it has not publicly confirmed the probes.Regulators face a dilemma: existing legislation may be inadequate for the technological realities of blockchain‑based prediction markets. CFTC Commissioner Michael Selig, appointed by the Trump administration, warned that “we will find you and you will face the full force of the law,” yet the agency cannot issue new rules until it has a full five‑member commission.State‑level challenges further complicate oversight. Nevada temporarily banned Kalshi for operating without a gambling license, while Arizona filed criminal charges over election‑betting contracts. Kalshi argues that the CFTC holds exclusive jurisdiction over such markets.A recent academic study screened over 200,000 “suspicious wallet‑market pairs” from February 2024 to February 2026, finding that traders in this cohort achieved a near 70% win rate, generating roughly $143 million from well‑timed bets on events ranging from the capture of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro to celebrity engagements.Congressional leaders have responded with legislation aimed at prohibiting federal employees, including members of Congress and White House staff, from participating in prediction‑market contracts tied to political or policy outcomes. However, experts caution that the legal framework for insider trading in commodity futures remains under‑developed, making enforcement challenging.As prediction markets continue to intersect with geopolitical events, the risk of market distortion grows. “When financial bets are based on classified military information, it undermines both market integrity and public trust,” warned Verstein, highlighting the broader implications for the real economy.
#iran #israel #polymarket
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Politics Apr 18, 2026

UK Prime Minister Starmer Under Fire as Mandelson Vetting Scandal Deepens

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces renewed calls to resign over the Mandelson vetting scandal, wh…
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has rejected calls to quit amid mounting pressure over the Peter Mandelson vetting scandal. Starmer expressed his fury at not being informed that Mandelson had failed his security vetting before being appointed as the UK's envoy to Washington.The controversy centers around the Foreign Office's decision to overrule the recommendation of security officials not to give Mandelson the job. Mandelson was subsequently appointed in December 2024 and took up the post in February 2025, only to be sacked seven months later due to his ties to the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.Starmer maintained that he was kept in the dark about the vetting outcome, describing the Foreign Office's failure to inform him as 'staggering' and 'unforgivable'. He has pledged to provide 'true transparency' to Parliament on Monday. The beleaguered prime minister said he only found out about the botched process on Tuesday, just before the revelations were published.Opposition Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch questioned Starmer's claims of ignorance, calling them 'completely preposterous'. She demanded his resignation, stating that 'all roads lead to a resignation'. The scandal has raised serious questions about Starmer's leadership and the UK government's handling of sensitive appointments.
#Keir Starmer #Peter Mandelson #UK government
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Sport Apr 17, 2026

Guardian Weekly Sports Quiz: European Cup Winners, Tottenham’s Last Relegation, First Female Top‑Flight Coach and More

The Guardian’s 17 April 2026 sports quiz challenges readers with 15 questions on European football,…
On 17 April 2026 the Guardian released its weekly sports quiz, testing readers on recent European football semi‑finalists, Tottenham’s relegation history, the first female head coach in Europe’s top five leagues, and a range of other sporting milestones. The quiz, published on the Guardian’s website, aims to engage fans by linking current events with historic trivia. European Cup tally: The quiz asks how many times Bayern Munich, Arsenal, Paris Saint‑Germain and Atlético Madrid have collectively won the competition. The correct answer is seven – Bayern’s six titles, PSG’s inaugural win last season, while Arsenal and Atlético have yet to lift the trophy. Tottenham’s relegation: After a 14‑match winless streak, Spurs fell into the relegation zone. The quiz asks when they were last demoted; the answer is 1977, a year also marked by Elvis Presley’s death, Pelé’s final professional match, the debut of Star Wars and Manchester United’s sacking of Tommy Docherty. Breaking the glass ceiling: Marie‑Louise Eta became the first woman to manage a club in Europe’s top five leagues when she was appointed interim boss of Union Berlin. Her tenure is expected to be brief as she will move to the women’s side next season. Golf history: Rory McIlroy’s sixth major win prompts the question of which European golfer has more majors. The answer is Harry Vardon, who captured seven majors (six Opens and one U.S. Open) and is celebrated as golf’s first international star. Masters oddities: Shane Lowry made Masters history by becoming the first player to record two holes‑in‑one at Augusta, the 35th hole‑in‑one overall at the tournament. Women’s Six Nations: Wales suffered a 24‑19 defeat to Scotland in the opening round, continuing a recent run of wooden‑spoon finishes. World Cup coaching: Carlos Queiroz was appointed Ghana’s manager, giving him the chance to coach at a sixth World Cup after previous stints with South Africa, Portugal and Iran. Grand National legacy: I Am Maximus joins the post‑war elite of multiple Grand National winners, following Tiger Roll, who claimed back‑to‑back victories in 2018 and 2019. Managerial debut: Former England midfielder Jack Wilshere secured his first trophy as a manager, guiding Luton Town to an EFL Trophy win at Wembley. County Championship rule change: The quiz highlights that Tom Westley, Jonny Bairstow and others have all been substituted this season under new regulations allowing injury or personal‑circumstance replacements. NBA consistency: The Boston Celtics have reached the playoffs for a 12th consecutive season, though they have captured only one championship in that span (2024). Combat sports crossover: Oleksandr Usyk will face kick‑boxing legend Rico Verhoeven, who held the heavyweight kick‑boxing world title for 12 years, in a bout billed as “Glory in Giza” at the Egyptian pyramids. Snooker prodigy: Fourteen‑year‑old Stan Moody qualified for the World Snooker Championship after playing a decisive match while recovering from tonsillitis, underscoring his remarkable determination. Overall, the quiz blends current headlines with historic facts, offering readers a chance to test their knowledge while reflecting on the broader narratives shaping sport today.
#quot #text #answerbuckets
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Entertainment Apr 17, 2026

Acclaimed Filmmaker Asif Kapadia to Helm Final ‘70 Up’ Episode, Closing Landmark ITV Documentary Series

Renowned director Asif Kapadia will oversee the concluding installment of ITV’s iconic ‘Up’ series,…
Asif Kapadia has been appointed to direct the final chapter of the ITV documentary series “70 Up,” slated for broadcast later this year. The series, which launched in 1964, was voted the most influential UK television programme of the last 50 years in a 2024 Broadcasting Press Guild poll. Kapadia, celebrated for his award‑winning documentaries on Amy Winehouse, Ayrton Senna and Diego Maradona, described the role as an "incredible honour and privilege" and called the original “Up” series the ultimate portrait of human life. ITV’s factual controller Jo Clinton‑Davis praised the appointment, noting that Kapadia will bring “passion, creativity and incredible flair” while safeguarding the series’ legacy, which she said has become “part of our cultural fabric.” The series was conceived by Granada’s Tim Hewat, who adapted the Jesuit maxim “Give me the child until he is seven and I will show you the man” into a longitudinal study of British social class. Michael Apted, who served as the series’ long‑time director, passed away in 2021; his earlier prediction that the project would continue “as long as I’m above ground” has now been fulfilled. Over the decades, viewers have followed fourteen participants from childhood to senior age. Notable stories include Liverpool’s Neil Hughes, who dreamed of becoming an astronaut at 14, later endured homelessness, and ultimately emerged as a lay preacher and Liberal Democrat councillor. Only one participant, Charles Furneaux, chose to exit the experiment early, while others, such as scientist Nick Hitchon, have passed away. With Kapadia at the helm, “70 Up” will serve as a tribute to both Apted’s pioneering vision and the courage of the cast, who have shared their lives across seven‑year intervals for more than six decades.
#Asif Kapadia #ITV #Up series
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Stage Apr 17, 2026

Equity urges dedicated awards for theatre choreographers and movement directors after Olivier win

The Equity‑backed Choreographers and Movement Directors Network (CMDN) argues that theatre choreogr…
Equity’s Choreographers and Movement Directors Network (CMDN) says that theatre’s physical storytellers are still marginalised by awards bodies and should receive dedicated recognition.At the recent Olivier Awards, Fabian Aloise secured the best theatre choreographer prize for "Evita" at the London Palladium. While the network welcomed the visibility, it pointed out that the movement directors behind the nominated productions were omitted from any specific category, sparking a broader debate about the language used to credit theatrical creation.CMDN highlighted several movement directors whose work shaped this season’s most impactful shows, naming Leanne Pinder ("Punch"), Sarah Golding ("Kenrex"), Imogen Knight ("Dead Man Walking"), Jenny Ogilvie ("Into the Woods"), Sung Im Her ("The Glass Menagerie"), Lucy Hind ("Inter Alia") and Kloé Dean ("The Boy at the Back of the Class").Movement direction, the network explains, is not always dance but is essential to a production’s physical language, characterisation and dramatic flow. "If we celebrate the impact of physical storytelling, we must also evolve how we acknowledge the artists behind it," CMDN said.The network praised the Black British Theatre Awards for expanding their choreography category in 2022 to include movement direction, but noted that the UK Theatre Awards and Critics’ Circle Awards still lack dedicated categories for either choreography or movement direction.Founded in 2023 by movement director and choreographer Polly Bennett, CMDN now counts over 200 members. In a 2025 interview, steering‑group member Ellen Kane asked, "Why aren’t there Oscars or BAFTAs for choreography? Why aren’t we being credited?"Last month, more than a hundred theatre professionals signed a petition urging the Olivier Awards to create a separate video‑design category, arguing that the current system lumps video designers with other disciplines. This year’s Olivier winners illustrate the overlap: Tom Pye (set) and Ash J Woodward (video) shared the best set‑design award for "Paddington: The Musical", while Aideen Malone (lighting) and Roland Horvath (video) shared best lighting‑design for "Into the Woods".
#movement #theatre #awards
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Sports Apr 17, 2026

Barcelona Lodges Appeal with UEFA Over Refereeing Controversies in Champions League Exit

Barcelona has appealed to UEFA over several refereeing decisions in their Champions League quarterf…
Barcelona has lodged a formal appeal with UEFA, protesting a series of refereeing decisions made during their Champions League quarterfinal matches against Atletico Madrid. The Spanish club believes these decisions, which were not adequately addressed by the VAR system, significantly impacted the outcome of the tie, which Atletico won 3-2 on aggregate.The Catalan club expressed concerns over several incidents, including two potential penalty situations that did not trigger VAR intervention. They also pointed out that they finished both matches with 10 men after the dismissals of Pau Cubarsi and Eric Garcia. According to Barcelona, these errors caused significant sporting and financial harm to the club.Barcelona's appeal comes after UEFA rejected their initial complaint regarding a handball incident in the first leg. The club is now seeking improved refereeing and fair application of regulations in future matches.
#list #uefa #champions
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Sports Apr 16, 2026

Warriors Stun Clippers with Thrilling Comeback, Advance to NBA Playoff Showdown

The Golden State Warriors have kept their NBA playoff hopes alive with a stunning 126-121 comeback …
The Golden State Warriors have kept their NBA playoff hopes alive with a thrilling 126-121 comeback victory over the Los Angeles Clippers in a Western Conference play-in game. Stephen Curry led the charge with a game-high 35 points, including a crucial deep 3-pointer with 50.4 seconds remaining to put the Warriors ahead for good.However, it was Al Horford who stole the show with his late-game heroics. The 39-year-old veteran had just two points off the bench before his pivotal outburst, finishing with 14 points. Horford connected on four 3-pointers in the final 5:37, including the game-ending baskets, as part of a 27-13 Golden State run to seal the win.The Warriors' victory eliminates the Clippers and sets up a sudden-death matchup against the Phoenix Suns in Phoenix on Friday to determine the West's No. 8 seed and the Oklahoma City Thunder's first-round playoff opponent. Stephen Curry's seven makes on 12 attempts from beyond the arc paced the Warriors to a 19-of-41 long-range barrage (46.3 percent).Other key contributors for the Warriors included Gui Santos with 20 points, six rebounds, and five assists, and Kristaps Porzingis with 20 points. For the Clippers, Darius Garland and Kawhi Leonard each finished with 21 points, while Bennedict Mathurin led Los Angeles with 23 points off the bench.In other NBA play-in action, Tyrese Maxey scored a team-high 31 points to lead the Philadelphia 76ers to a 109-97 victory over the Orlando Magic, securing the 76ers' spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs as the seventh seed.
#Golden State Warriors #Los Angeles Clippers #Stephen Curry
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World Economy Apr 16, 2026

Senate Democrats Block Trump's Bid to Install New Fed Chair Amid Investigations

Senate Democrats are stalling President Trump's effort to install a new Federal Reserve chair, citi…
Senate Democrats have moved to stall President Donald Trump's bid to install a new leader of the US Federal Reserve, condemning the move as 'absurd' given ongoing criminal investigations into the central bank's leadership.Democratic lawmakers on the Senate banking committee urged its Republican leadership to postpone the planned confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh, the financial executive and former Fed governor Trump has nominated to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair.In a letter to banking committee chair Senator Tim Scott, the 11 Democrats called for a hearing currently scheduled for Tuesday to be delayed until investigations into Powell and Lisa Cook, a Fed governor, are closed.Powell is facing a criminal investigation into the renovations of the central bank's headquarters, which he dismissed as a 'pretext' tied to the Fed's refusal to bow to Trump's demands. The Trump administration also tried to fire Cook, an appointee of Joe Biden, for alleged mortgage fraud.The Democratic senators wrote in their letter to Scott: 'It would be absurd on its face to allow President Trump to handpick the next chair of the Federal Reserve as his Department of Justice actively pursues criminal investigations of not one, but two sitting members of the Federal Reserve board.'Warsh's nomination also faces hurdles from within the president's own party, with outgoing GOP senator Thom Tillis stating he would not support any nomination as long as there is an investigation into Powell.
#trump #fed #chair
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Film Apr 16, 2026

Amazon MGM Stalls James Bond Casting Reveal, Vows Thoughtful Choice Before 2028 Launch

At CinemaCon, Amazon MGM executives cautioned fans that the iconic James Bond role remains uncast, …
The heads of Amazon MGM Studios used Wednesday’s CinemaCon trade show to temper expectations surrounding the next James Bond film. Executives confirmed that the iconic spy has not yet been cast, citing a deliberate, respectful approach to the decision.Courtenay Valenti, Amazon MGM’s head of film, addressed the crowd with a measured tone: “We know you’re eager to learn who will embody James Bond, but we’re taking the time to do this with care and deep respect.” She stressed that the role is “a lifetime dream” and a responsibility the studio does not take lightly.Valenti highlighted the caliber of talent attached to the project, noting that the franchise will be paired with renowned director Denis Villeneuve, acclaimed producers Amy Pascal and David Heyman, executive producer Tanya Lapointe, and screenwriter Steven Knight. This combination, she argued, sets the stage for a film worthy of the Bond legacy.The upcoming installment is slated for a 2028 release, implying that principal photography is likely to commence in late 2026. The timeline follows earlier announcements in June 2025 (Villeneuve as director) and August 2025 (Knight as writer).Speculation about potential leads has centered on three actors: Callum Turner, Aaron Taylor‑Johnson, and Jacob Elordi. If Elordi were chosen, he would become the youngest, tallest, and second Australian to portray the famed spy.Despite his recent Oscar‑nominated turn in Frankenstein and a high‑profile role in Wuthering Heights, Elordi’s schedule appears unusually open, fueling further conjecture.Valenti concluded with confidence: “The film is coming, and when the time is right, we’ll have much more to share.”
#bond #you #elordi
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