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Britain is confronting the most severe energy shock since the early 1970s, as exports of oil, gas and fertiliser from the Middle East have abruptly stopped. The government says a response plan exists, but details remain vague. It is unclear whether the UK is better prepared for the fallout from Donald Trump’s war with Iran than it was for the pandemic six years ago. Ministers are sending a "we have your back" message to the public while simultaneously signalling to financial markets that any assistance will be limited and targeted. Contingency planning is especially difficult when dealing with an unpredictable leader like Trump. Britain’s heavy reliance on imported energy and food means that reassurance can only hold for a short time. The economy entered the conflict already on shaky ground: unemployment rose steadily throughout 2025 and growth stalled to a virtual standstill in the final quarter of that year. The sudden loss of Middle‑East energy and fertiliser supplies now adds a colossal supply shock. Last year, Trump’s “liberation day” tariff hikes served as a dry run for a far more serious confrontation. This time, the war is taking place in a region that is both volatile and crucial to the global economy. In the past two weeks, the repercussions have been felt across Asia – the Philippines declared a state of emergency, Sri Lanka introduced a four‑day work week, and South Korea announced budget measures to help households cope with soaring energy bills. The continent is the most dependent on Gulf‑exported energy, making the impact there the sharpest. The International Monetary Fund warned that the shock will drive higher prices and slower growth worldwide. Shortages push fuel and food prices up, eroding disposable income, prompting businesses to cut staff, and increasing the risk of recession. The UK, already projected to be one of the poorest‑performing major economies in 2026, could see its fresh graduate cohort face a brutal job market. Trump’s claim that the war could end within two or three weeks appears desperate. Even a rapid cease‑fire would leave substantial collateral damage, creating a stagflation scenario that could hurt Republican prospects in the upcoming mid‑term elections. British officials hope a swift resolution will limit economic damage, allowing a short‑term inflation spike to subside and the Bank of England to resume interest‑rate cuts. Treasury plans include scrapping the planned autumn fuel‑duty rise and providing targeted help for the poorest households, though the path is unlikely to be that simple. Currently, the Treasury is hesitant to act boldly for fear of unsettling bond markets. History – the 2008 banking collapse and the 2020 pandemic – shows that governments can act decisively without triggering a market backlash, using tools such as aggressive rate cuts, increased borrowing, and quantitative easing. The Bank of England has warned of a "substantial negative supply shock" and is expected to soften markets for future rate cuts, which are inevitable. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves could mitigate labour‑market pain by reversing recent increases in employers’ National Insurance contributions, subsidising public transport, and even lowering speed limits to conserve energy. The war, like the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, underscores the fragility of global supply chains and the need for greater British self‑reliance. Investing heavily in renewable energy is essential, but the UK also imports roughly 40% of its food and has not run a manufacturing trade surplus since 1982. In a world of disrupted supply lines, a robust plan for economic self‑sufficiency is more urgent than ever. Larry Elliott is a Guardian columnist.

The recent surge in violence in Palestine has resulted in a significant escalation of tensions, with at least 18 people killed in the Gaza Strip and the occupied West Bank. The majority of those killed were victims of Israeli air strikes in Gaza, while a combination of settler and army shootings killed three people in the West Bank.The violence comes as Israel continues to restrict worship at Palestinian holy sites, ostensibly due to the threat of Iranian attacks. The Al-Aqsa Mosque compound has been closed to Muslim worshippers since late February, with authorities extending the state of emergency until mid-April. Additionally, Israeli forces prevented Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Latin patriarch of Jerusalem, from entering the Church of the Holy Sepulchre in occupied East Jerusalem to perform Palm Sunday mass.A global backlash, including soft criticism from United States Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, led to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promising “a plan to enable church leaders to worship at the holy site in the coming days”. In Gaza, the week brought a surge in Israeli air strikes and artillery fire, often targeting police forces – a campaign Israeli officials describe as aimed at degrading Hamas’s control over the territory.However, the prospect of reaching the plan’s promised second stage – when reconstruction can begin – appears remote. Instead, the months-long status quo of repeated Israeli strikes on Palestinians in Gaza continues. At least 705 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since the beginning of the October “ceasefire”, according to the Palestinian state news agency Wafa.Amid heavily restricted aid and stormy weather flooding the tents of hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians, humanitarian conditions also continue to deteriorate in Gaza. The Ministry of Health warned on Sunday that fuel and parts shortages for hospital generators threatened to halt medical services entirely.