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The ongoing US-Israel war on Iran has taken a critical turn with Donald Trump's announcement that the US Navy would start blockading the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic waterway is crucial for global oil shipments, and any disruption could have significant economic impacts. In response, Iran's Revolutionary Guard warned that approaching military vessels to the strait would be considered a violation of the ceasefire. This development has led to a surge in oil prices, with US crude oil rising 8% to $104.24 a barrel and Brent crude oil increasing 7% to $102.29. The blockade, set to begin on Monday morning, will be implemented by US Central Command (Centcom) and will affect all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports. This move is part of a broader strategy that may include resuming limited military strikes in Iran, according to reports. The situation has drawn international attention, with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese stating that his government has not been asked to participate in the blockade and is keen on continuing negotiations between the US and Iran. Meanwhile, Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf dismissed Trump's threats, asserting that they would have no effect on the Iranian nation.

The ongoing conflict between the US and Israel and Iran has significantly altered the dynamics of the nuclear programme negotiations. Former US envoys who dealt with Iran have stated that the US-Israeli attack on Iran and Tehran's subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz have given Iran new tools and resolve to resist pressure to shutter its nuclear programme.Two senior negotiators for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Obama-era agreement to limit Iran's nuclear uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief, said the Trump administration's war had handed Iran a coveted weapon by demonstrating its ability to cut off the Strait of Hormuz, an economic chokehold that one negotiator said would help Iran 'balance the asymmetry of power' with the US.Alan Eyre, a former diplomat who helped negotiate the JCPOA, noted that 'this administration, to say it more politely, cannot unsoil the bed. There's no way to get back to the status quo ante before this war started.'In 2018, Donald Trump withdrew the US from the JCPOA, which barred Tehran from enriching its uranium to weapons-grade. Trump called the deal 'one of the worst and most one-sided transactions' the US had ever entered into.However, after a strategy of high pressure – first through returning sanctions and then, after Trump's return to power in 2025, a war that was meant to destroy Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities – the current US administration has found itself in more complex negotiations than before its campaign of economic and military strikes.Robert Malley, a Yale lecturer who was former special envoy to Iran under Joe Biden and a lead negotiator on the JCPOA, said: 'The strait of Hormuz wasn't an issue before the US decided to strike. You have all the issues inherited from the past, but you just added a few, because the US has handed Iran a tool that it always had, but it never thought of using, or never felt it could.'The chances for a comprehensive agreement addressing all of the US and Iran's grievances appear slim. While the Obama administration sought to negotiate exclusively on Iran's nuclear programme in the lead-up to the 2015 agreement, the Trump administration has sought a broader deal limiting Iran's ballistic missiles programme and its support for regional proxies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.

Israel has continued its deadly offensive in Gaza, while simultaneously launching military strikes against targets in Iran and Lebanon. The coordinated actions suggest an expansion of the conflict beyond the Gaza Strip, raising concerns about a wider regional confrontation.Analysts note that the simultaneous operations could strain diplomatic efforts and increase the risk of further escalation across the Middle East, as neighboring states monitor the developments closely.

In a recent editorial, the Guardian highlighted the danger of Israel applying the same brutal tactics used in Gaza to Lebanon, and Medical Aid for Palestinians echoes that warning.Field reports from Lebanon describe a climate of terror fueled by mass forced‑displacement orders and relentless military strikes, including assaults on healthcare workers. Aid groups are scrambling to assist Palestinian refugees who have fled their homes, while many others remain trapped, deepening panic in already overcrowded camps plagued by poverty and scarce services.The Israeli military appears to be mirroring Gaza’s playbook: terrorising civilians, imposing forced displacement, and targeting humanitarian and medical infrastructure. Despite a declared cease‑fire in Gaza, Israeli attacks have killed more than 690 Palestinians since October, and restrictions on aid are creating lethal shortages of medicines and equipment.Meanwhile, the West Bank endures escalating settler violence and an Israeli annexation agenda that now threatens to extend into Lebanon, further destabilising the region.Medical Aid for Palestinians stresses that impunity for attacks on civilians and health services endangers both the populations they serve and the organisation’s staff across Gaza, the occupied West Bank and Lebanon.According to the statement, the UK government must not cherry‑pick when to uphold international law. It calls for decisive action to hold all perpetrators accountable, warning that inaction will lead to catastrophic human costs. The world, it asserts, cannot allow the horrors witnessed in Gaza to be replayed in Lebanon, and governments should not become complicit allies of such atrocities.

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President Donald Trump has announced a significant diplomatic pause in the escalating conflict with Iran, instructing the US military to delay any strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period. The announcement comes as Trump claims both nations have reached "major points of agreement" and are seeking a "complete and total resolution" of hostilities in the Middle East.This decision follows a tense 48-hour ultimatum issued by Trump on Saturday, in which he threatened to "obliterate" Iranian power plants if Tehran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait is a critical global chokepoint, handling approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas; its closure has already triggered a severe global energy crisis and spiked oil prices.Speaking from Florida, Trump stated that Iran is eager to make a deal and that his envoys, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, have been engaged in talks with a "respected" Iranian leader. For a resolution to materialize, Trump asserted that Iran must relinquish its enriched uranium stockpile, and he suggested the strategic Strait of Hormuz would be reopened very soon if an agreement is reached.The prospect of de-escalation provided immediate relief to global financial markets. Wall Street stocks saw early gains on Monday, while oil prices—which had soared since the onset of hostilities—experienced a sharp decline. The easing of tensions is viewed as a potential "off-ramp" for the war, which analysts suggest may be an attempt by Trump to secure a dignified exit from the conflict.While Iran has not officially confirmed the talks, its Foreign Ministry suggested the pause is a tactical maneuver to lower energy prices. However, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that any attack on Iranian power plants would trigger a massive retaliation, including strikes on US bases and economic infrastructure. Analysts believe the likelihood of Iran refusing this offer is remote, as the country seeks to avoid further devastation.

Global stock markets swung wildly on Monday as investors reacted to US President Donald Trump's decision to postpone military strikes on Iranian power plants. The move led to a relief rally in European markets, with the French Cac 40, Spanish Ibex, and German Dax all rising by 0.8%, 1%, and 1.2% respectively.The FTSE 100 share index, which had fallen by almost 1.5% in early trading, reversed course to gain 0.4% before paring back to close down 0.2%. US markets were up more than 1% in early afternoon trading on Wall Street.Oil prices, which had been rising after Trump threatened to strike Iranian infrastructure, dropped sharply. Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell 10% to $101 a barrel. The UK month-ahead gas prices fell 6% to 142p a therm.Trump announced on his social media platform Truth Social that the US and Iran had “very good and productive conversations” over the past two days regarding “a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East”. He said he had instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period, subject to the success of ongoing meetings and discussions.The global economy has been bracing for much higher oil prices due to disruption in the strait of Hormuz, with Goldman Sachs forecasting Brent crude will average $85 a barrel this year, up from previous expectations of $77 a barrel. Brent hit $119.50 a barrel earlier this month, the highest since the war began.