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The war between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has entered its third year, yet a significant demographic shift is underway. According to the United Nations, nearly 4 million people have voluntarily returned to their places of origin in Sudan, drawn by a mix of hope for stability and the unbearable conditions of displacement. However, the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) warns that these returnees are facing a new 'struggle for survival' as they return to communities ravaged by destruction.Key DevelopmentsMassive Return Numbers: The IOM has counted 3.99 million returnees, primarily concentrated in Khartoum and the agricultural state of Al-Jazirah.Displacement Statistics: The conflict has internally displaced nearly 12 million people, with over four million fleeing to neighboring countries.Infrastructure Collapse: Returning farmers find irrigation systems and agricultural equipment destroyed, crippling food production.Funding Shortfall: The IOM’s 2026 crisis response plan requires $170 million but remains underfunded by $97.2 million.Data & Market ImpactThe returnees are not just facing psychological trauma; they are confronting a total collapse of the food system. With irrigation destroyed and equipment lost, food production is at a breaking point. This comes alongside a dire humanitarian statistic where millions are surviving on just one meal a day. The economic impact is severe, as the agricultural heartland of Al-Jazirah struggles to recover, threatening regional food security.Why This MattersThis situation represents a critical tipping point for Sudan's humanitarian landscape. The return of millions to conflict zones creates a paradox where displaced populations are moving from one crisis to another. For the broader region, the destruction of Al-Jazirah—a key agricultural state—poses a significant risk to food supplies beyond Sudan's borders. Furthermore, the failure to provide basic services to returnees risks reigniting mass displacement, potentially overwhelming neighboring countries that are already hosting millions of refugees.Expert InsightSung Ah Lee of the IOM highlights a complex motivation behind this migration: a mix of misplaced hope and desperation. 'Many are returning because they believe security has improved,' Lee noted, suggesting that the perception of stability may be outpacing reality. However, the core issue is the lack of sustainable conditions for return. Without 'urgent investment to restore essential services,' the return is not a solution but a transfer of vulnerability. The systematic erosion of Sudan's food system by siege tactics and violence means that even if security improves, the economic foundation required for survival has been dismantled.What Happens NextThe immediate future for these returnees is precarious. If the funding gap for humanitarian aid is not closed, we can expect a surge in famine-related deaths and a potential second wave of displacement. The international community must recognize that voluntary returns are only viable if accompanied by massive reconstruction efforts. Without a political resolution to the conflict between the army and RSF, and without immediate financial intervention, Sudan faces a prolonged humanitarian catastrophe that could destabilize the entire Horn of Africa region.

The European Union has long voiced strong criticism of Israel’s actions in Gaza and the West Bank, but recent political developments suggest it may finally translate that rhetoric into tangible economic pressure.Key DevelopmentsEU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen labeled Gaza aid restrictions a “man‑made famine” (Sept 2025).EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas condemned Israeli strikes in Lebanon as unjustified (Apr 2026).Spain’s government called for suspending the EU‑Israel association agreement over human‑rights concerns (Apr 2026).Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni announced a pause on the defence‑cooperation pact with Israel (Apr 2026).Hungary’s shift after Viktor Orbán’s electoral loss may reopen EU sanctions on West‑Bank settlers (Feb 2026).Data & Market ImpactApproximately 33% of Israel’s trade is conducted with the EU, giving Brussels significant economic leverage.Israeli participation in the Horizon research programme brings billions of euros in joint scientific funding.A partial suspension of the EU‑Israel association agreement would affect only the trade component, requiring a weighted majority rather than unanimity.Why This MattersEconomic pressure could compel Israel to reconsider settlement expansion and military actions that breach international law.Reduced EU‑Israel trade would impact sectors ranging from technology and agriculture to academic collaborations, affecting businesses and researchers on both sides.EU credibility on human‑rights enforcement would be tested, influencing its global standing and relations with other partners.Expert InsightThe EU’s hesitancy has stemmed from internal disunity and a reliance on diplomatic persuasion. However, the loss of a reliable far‑right ally in Hungary and growing public outrage in Italy and Spain are reshaping the calculus. By leveraging its status as Israel’s largest trading partner, the EU can move from moral condemnation to actionable leverage. Yet the move is fraught with risk: a fragmented response could weaken the bloc’s negotiating power, while a hardline stance may push Israel closer to non‑EU allies such as the United States under a Trump‑aligned administration.What Happens NextEU ministers are likely to revisit the proposal to partially suspend the association agreement, aiming for a weighted‑majority vote.Hungary’s new government may support sanctions on West‑Bank settlers, reviving the stalled measure.Italy and Spain could spearhead a coordinated diplomatic push for broader economic restrictions if settlement activity continues.Israel’s response will hinge on the economic cost versus political support from the United States; a significant EU clamp‑down could force policy recalibrations in Jerusalem.

The LAX Arrest and the Scope of the ChargesShamim Mafi, 44, was apprehended at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) on Saturday, marking a significant escalation in US efforts to curb Iran's global influence operations. Mafi, who became a lawful permanent resident of the United States in 2016, faces a maximum sentence of 20 years in federal prison if convicted. The Department of Justice alleges she acted as a broker for the sale of drones, bombs, bomb fuses, and millions of rounds of ammunition manufactured by Iran and sold to Sudan.Financial Ties: The $7 Million PipelineThe investigation into Mafi reveals a sophisticated financial network designed to bypass international sanctions. Court documents indicate that Mafi and an unnamed coconspirator operated a company called Atlas International Business in Oman. This entity received over $7 million in payments in 2025 alone. Furthermore, the complaint details a specific transaction involving the sale of 55,000 bomb fuses to the Sudanese Ministry of Defence. Crucially, Mafi submitted a letter of intent to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to facilitate this purchase.Exacerbating a Humanitarian CatastropheThe trafficking of these weapons has direct and devastating consequences for the people of Sudan. As the civil war between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) enters its fourth year, the United Nations has warned that the country is at risk of slipping into “full-scale famine and collapse.” By funneling weapons to the Sudanese army—backed by Iran—Mafi’s alleged actions are prolonging the violence. UN officials have stated that weapons from outside sources deserve part of the blame for the crisis, complicating diplomatic efforts to stabilize the region.Geopolitical Ramifications and Future OutlookThis case highlights the deepening entanglement of regional powers in Sudan's conflict. While the United Arab Emirates is often accused of arming the RSF, Mafi's indictment provides concrete evidence of Iran's direct involvement through a US-based conduit. The conviction of a resident for such high-level sanctions evasion suggests a tightening of legal pressure on Iran. Moving forward, this case will likely serve as a precedent for increased scrutiny of financial transactions involving third-party nations like Oman and the monitoring of dual-use technologies.

The United Nations' senior aid coordinator has issued a stark warning that South Sudan could be on the brink of a full-scale famine. The alert highlights the escalating food insecurity across the war‑torn nation and calls for immediate humanitarian assistance to avert a catastrophic humanitarian disaster. Urgent action from the global community is essential to deliver food, nutrition, and medical aid to vulnerable populations, whose livelihoods are already strained by ongoing conflict and displacement. The warning serves as a critical reminder of the fragile stability in the region and the potential socioeconomic fallout if the crisis deepens.

The United Nations’ Under‑Secretary‑General for Humanitarian Affairs, Tom Fletcher, warned the Security Council on Friday that South Sudan is at a dangerous crossroads, facing the prospect of a full‑scale famine and national collapse.Fletcher stressed that “hunger across South Sudan is tightening its grip,” noting that emergency‑level food insecurity is projected for all ten states during the lean season, which runs until the end of July.After a week‑long visit, he reported that humanitarian compounds have been looted and nutrition centres destroyed around Akobo in Jonglei State, where more than 140,000 people are in “dire need of help.” He warned that his next briefing could be dominated by famine warnings.According to the UN official, over 7.5 million South Sudanese will require food assistance this year. The situation is compounded by expected floods that will further isolate communities and damage livelihoods.Escalating violence fuels the crisisUNMISS head Anita Kiki Gbeho told the council that civilians continue to bear the brunt of intensifying clashes between the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army in Opposition (SPLM/A‑IO), especially in Jonglei.Fighting surged late last year after a 2018 peace deal ended a five‑year civil war. In December, opposition forces seized government outposts in Jonglei, prompting a retaliatory operation in January that forced more than 280,000 civilians to flee.Fletcher urged the Security Council to secure unhindered humanitarian access, increase flexible funding, and demand that all parties fully respect humanitarian law and protect civilians and infrastructure.As the council deliberates the renewal of the UNMISS mandate—currently set to expire on 30 April—Gbeho warned that “the scale and urgency of needs on the ground are not yet matched by the type of sustained commitment and investment required to fully meet the shared ambition of a sustainable path to peace.”

While the world focuses on diplomatic efforts to end the war on Iran, Israel has intensified its military actions in Gaza, resulting in a significant escalation of the humanitarian crisis. The number of aid trucks entering Gaza has drastically decreased, violating the October 2025 ceasefire agreement with Hamas. According to the Government Media Office in Gaza, there have been 2,400 military violations by Israeli forces since then, leading to the deaths of over 700 Palestinians.Recent attacks have resulted in significant casualties, including 11 Palestinians killed on Tuesday, with two being children. The intensity of these attacks spiked during peak regional tensions, with Israeli forces bombing Gaza on 36 out of 40 days between February 28 and April 8, while Israel and the US were engaged in a bombing campaign against Iran.The situation in Gaza has deteriorated to the point where economic experts describe it as an 'engineered, compounded famine'. The number of aid trucks entering Gaza is severely limited, with only 41,714 aid and commercial trucks entering over the past six months, representing just 37% of the agreed-upon 110,400 trucks. The fuel situation is even more critical, with only 1,366 fuel trucks entering out of a promised 9,200.Palestinian officials and economic experts argue that Israel is using a 'technical and commercial deception' to inflate the number of aid trucks entering Gaza. This has led to a severe shortage of basic commodities, with bread production plummeting to 200 tonnes daily, far below the 450 tonnes required to feed the population.The crisis has evolved into a complete collapse of the Palestinian economy, with unemployment soaring to 80% and the destruction of over 160,000 jobs across various sectors. The population has lost its purchasing power, forcing civilians into life-threatening situations.The international community has been urged to pressure Israel to open the crossings and prevent a humanitarian catastrophe. The situation in Gaza remains critical, with 18,000 people still trapped, waiting for life-saving medical treatment abroad.

The British foreign secretary, Yvette Cooper, will urge Sudan's warring parties to 'cease bloodshed' during a major conference on Wednesday, which analysts believe is unlikely to deliver a significant step towards peace.The talks in Berlin – held on the third anniversary of the start of Sudan's ruinous war – are expected to help address a catastrophic funding shortfall that is compounding the world's worst humanitarian crisis.Overall, just 16% of the humanitarian funding needed for Sudan this year has been provided by the international community as the crisis in Iran continues to dominate diplomatic channels.Britain is among the countries attending the conference that are set to announce new funding for Sudan. Cooper will unveil a doubling of UK aid to £15m for Sudanese frontline responders such as the grassroots volunteer network known as Emergency Response Rooms.With the war now entering its fourth year, and with no sign of hostilities abating between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese army, latest assessments indicate more than 19 million people face acute hunger as a result of the fighting, while some areas are at risk of famine.The latest assessment from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) found 'emergency' levels of hunger across much of North Kordofan, West Kordofan, South Kordofan and North Darfur, while levels in some communities remained 'catastrophic'.It added that emergency levels of hunger were expected to spread over the coming months and that the number of people needing humanitarian aid was expected to reach 22-23 million.Despite the scale of the suffering, Cooper hopes that an end to the fighting is achievable. 'Today, in Berlin, I will call for the international community to join in a shared resolve: to secure a ceasefire and a diplomatic solution, to stop the suffering, and allow the people of Sudan to determine their own peaceful future,' she said.

Why does the war in Sudan persist three years after it began? According to the latest episode of Al Jazeera’s podcast The Take, the answer lies in the network of external actors that continue to fund and arm the warring factions – the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The episode, hosted by journalist Malika Bilal and featuring political analyst Dallia Abdelmoniem, explores how regional and global rivalries have turned Sudan into a proxy battleground. With the United States and Israel engaged in a broader confrontation with Iran, and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz inflating oil prices, the cost of fuel and food in Sudan has surged, worsening an already dire famine situation. Key insights from the discussion include: Foreign financing and arms supplies keep both the SAF and RSF operational, preventing a decisive military outcome. US‑Israel‑Iran dynamics divert international attention and resources, allowing the Sudanese conflict to fester. Rising global fuel prices driven by Strait of Hormuz instability increase transport costs, making humanitarian aid more expensive and less accessible. Food price spikes exacerbate famine risk for millions of displaced Sudanese, deepening the humanitarian crisis. The podcast also notes that without a coordinated diplomatic push to address the external backers and the broader geopolitical tensions, a sustainable cease‑fire remains unlikely. Production credits go to Tamara Khandaker (producer), with contributions from Noor Wazwaz, Sari el‑Khalili, Spencer Cline, Chloe K Li, and Tuleen Barakat. Editing was handled by Alexandra Locke, while Alex Roldan provided sound design and Hisham Abu Salah and Mohannad al‑Melhem managed video editing. Listeners can follow the conversation and future episodes on X, Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube.

Sudan's civil war, now in its fourth year, has plunged the country into one of the world's most severe humanitarian crises. The conflict, which began on April 15, 2023, between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has resulted in 14 million people being forced to flee their homes, roughly a quarter of the country's population.The war has caused widespread destruction, with 40,000 people estimated to have been killed and 21 million people facing acute food insecurity, including 6.3 million in emergency conditions. The country's healthcare system is in shambles, with over 200 attacks on healthcare facilities since the war began, resulting in at least 2,052 deaths.Human rights abuses are rampant, with serious violations including massacres, forced recruitment, and arbitrary arrests. Women and girls are particularly vulnerable to conflict-related sexual violence, with 3,396 survivors of sexual violence seeking treatment in MSF-supported health facilities across North and South Darfur between January 2024 and November 2025.The international community has attempted to mediate a ceasefire, but efforts have repeatedly failed. The conflict has also disrupted humanitarian operations, with regional instability affecting supply chains and limiting the movement of goods.The situation on the ground remains dire, with millions surviving on one meal a day and famine already confirmed in multiple areas. The international community must continue to pressure the warring parties to reach a ceasefire and provide urgent humanitarian assistance to those affected.