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World Economy Apr 02, 2026

UK braces for deepening recession as Trump‑Iran war triggers worst energy shock since the 1970s

Larry Elliott argues that the United Kingdom is confronting its most severe energy shock since the …
Britain is confronting the most severe energy shock since the early 1970s, as exports of oil, gas and fertiliser from the Middle East have abruptly stopped. The government says a response plan exists, but details remain vague. It is unclear whether the UK is better prepared for the fallout from Donald Trump’s war with Iran than it was for the pandemic six years ago. Ministers are sending a "we have your back" message to the public while simultaneously signalling to financial markets that any assistance will be limited and targeted. Contingency planning is especially difficult when dealing with an unpredictable leader like Trump. Britain’s heavy reliance on imported energy and food means that reassurance can only hold for a short time. The economy entered the conflict already on shaky ground: unemployment rose steadily throughout 2025 and growth stalled to a virtual standstill in the final quarter of that year. The sudden loss of Middle‑East energy and fertiliser supplies now adds a colossal supply shock. Last year, Trump’s “liberation day” tariff hikes served as a dry run for a far more serious confrontation. This time, the war is taking place in a region that is both volatile and crucial to the global economy. In the past two weeks, the repercussions have been felt across Asia – the Philippines declared a state of emergency, Sri Lanka introduced a four‑day work week, and South Korea announced budget measures to help households cope with soaring energy bills. The continent is the most dependent on Gulf‑exported energy, making the impact there the sharpest. The International Monetary Fund warned that the shock will drive higher prices and slower growth worldwide. Shortages push fuel and food prices up, eroding disposable income, prompting businesses to cut staff, and increasing the risk of recession. The UK, already projected to be one of the poorest‑performing major economies in 2026, could see its fresh graduate cohort face a brutal job market. Trump’s claim that the war could end within two or three weeks appears desperate. Even a rapid cease‑fire would leave substantial collateral damage, creating a stagflation scenario that could hurt Republican prospects in the upcoming mid‑term elections. British officials hope a swift resolution will limit economic damage, allowing a short‑term inflation spike to subside and the Bank of England to resume interest‑rate cuts. Treasury plans include scrapping the planned autumn fuel‑duty rise and providing targeted help for the poorest households, though the path is unlikely to be that simple. Currently, the Treasury is hesitant to act boldly for fear of unsettling bond markets. History – the 2008 banking collapse and the 2020 pandemic – shows that governments can act decisively without triggering a market backlash, using tools such as aggressive rate cuts, increased borrowing, and quantitative easing. The Bank of England has warned of a "substantial negative supply shock" and is expected to soften markets for future rate cuts, which are inevitable. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves could mitigate labour‑market pain by reversing recent increases in employers’ National Insurance contributions, subsidising public transport, and even lowering speed limits to conserve energy. The war, like the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, underscores the fragility of global supply chains and the need for greater British self‑reliance. Investing heavily in renewable energy is essential, but the UK also imports roughly 40% of its food and has not run a manufacturing trade surplus since 1982. In a world of disrupted supply lines, a robust plan for economic self‑sufficiency is more urgent than ever. Larry Elliott is a Guardian columnist.
#war #but #global
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World Economy Apr 02, 2026

Chris Rokos gifts record £190 million to Cambridge, creating UK's largest university endowment and spotlighting hedge‑fund billionaire’s philanthropic surge

Hedge‑fund founder Chris Rokos has pledged a historic £190 million to the University of Cambridge f…
When billionaire hedge‑fund manager Chris Rokos announced a £190 million contribution to the University of Cambridge, the move instantly became the largest single donation to any UK university in modern history. The funds will establish a new “school of government” aimed at bridging policy, science and emerging technologies. Rokos, a 55‑year‑old Oxford graduate, has amassed an estimated £2.6 billion fortune, primarily through his firm Rokos Capital Management (RCM), which he founded in 2015 after a high‑profile stint at Brevan Howard. RCM now oversees **over £22 billion** in assets, employs roughly 350 staff, and operates from offices in London, New York, Singapore and Abu Dhabi. In the most recent fiscal year ending March, Rokos paid himself nearly £500 million, according to Companies House filings, reflecting the firm’s strong performance amid volatile markets. Beyond finance, Rokos has kept a remarkably low public profile. He famously declined to provide a photograph when launching a £500 million fund in 2007, and he has avoided media attention despite owning one of England’s most expensive private residences. The £175 million refurbishment of the Grade I‑listed Tottenham House in Wiltshire – featuring a tennis pavilion, private cinema, basement squash court and a proposed “subterranean family link” to a pool house – has drawn local council scrutiny but stands as a tangible testament to his wealth. Rokos’s career trajectory began in banking at UBS and Goldman Sachs, moving to Credit Suisse where he was recruited by Alan Howard. He later joined the founding team of Brevan Howard in 2002, generating roughly $4 billion (≈£3 billion) in investor profits and about £600 million for himself before departing in 2012. His philanthropic philosophy emphasizes diversity of thought. In a video released by Cambridge, Rokos warned that a school populated only by “centrist, socially liberal” voices would be a failure, insisting on a broad spectrum of intellectual viewpoints. Earlier this year, RCM’s exploratory talks to bring former UK business secretary Peter Mandelson onto its advisory board collapsed after revelations about Mandelson’s connections to the late Jeffrey Epstein. Rokos also ranks among the UK’s biggest taxpayers and maintains a family office in Mayfair. A lingering legal dispute over a five‑year non‑compete clause with a former employer was settled out of court, clearing the way for his current venture. Overall, the record‑breaking Cambridge donation not only reshapes the university’s academic landscape but also underscores how hedge‑fund wealth is increasingly channeled into high‑impact philanthropy, blurring the lines between finance, education and public policy.
#rokos #university #school
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Business Apr 02, 2026

UK Businesses Plan to Raise Prices as Iran Conflict Drives Up Costs

UK companies expect to raise prices by 3.7% over the coming year due to increased costs driven by t…
UK businesses are planning to raise their prices more rapidly in the coming months due to the escalating costs triggered by the Iran conflict. A recent survey conducted by the Bank of England among over 2,000 chief financial officers revealed that companies now anticipate increasing their prices by 3.7% over the next year. This marks an increase from 3.4% in February, while the expectation of inflation across the economy has also risen from 3% to 3.5%. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has significantly driven up oil and gas prices, leading to predictions of wider price rises as these higher costs impact industries. The UK Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has met with retail bosses to discuss the risks of supply shortages and price increases. There is also pressure on her to mitigate the impact of likely rises in household gas and electricity bills before next winter and to reconsider plans for a 5p per liter increase in fuel duty set to take effect by next March. Bank of England policymakers are closely monitoring UK companies' pricing intentions as they consider whether to raise interest rates in the coming months from their current level of 3.75%. Financial markets are currently pricing in two interest rate rises by the end of the year, reflecting a sharp turnaround from expectations of rate cuts before the conflict began. However, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has cautioned that markets may be getting ahead of themselves, and weak consumer demand may prevent companies from passing on cost increases to their customers. He noted that businesses often report an absence of pricing power. Inflation on the consumer price index was steady at 3% in February but is now expected to rise.
#Bank of England #UK companies #Iran conflict
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World Economy Apr 02, 2026

AI and Influencers Propel Global Secondhand Clothing Market Toward $289 bn Forecast

The global resale clothing market is set to grow 12% this year to $289 bn, driven by AI‑enhanced pl…
Forecasts indicate that the worldwide secondhand apparel sector will expand by 12% in 2024, reaching $289 bn (£217 bn), buoyed by artificial intelligence tools and social‑media influencers that help consumers locate desired items.Platforms such as Vinted, Depop, Vestige and ThredUp are expected to sustain an average 9% annual growth over the next five years, pushing the market to an estimated $393 bn—roughly double the growth rate of the broader clothing industry.The outlook stems from ThredUp’s latest resale report, which incorporates analysis from GlobalData. In 2021 the market was valued at just $141 bn, meaning the projected 2024 figure is more than double that baseline.Major brands—including Dr Martens, Zara and Mulberry—are now entering the resale space, either by offering pre‑owned pieces or refurbishing items to satisfy rising consumer demand."Resale is no longer merely expanding; it’s capturing direct market share," said James Reinhart, co‑founder and CEO of ThredUp. The report notes that resale now accounts for one‑tenth of global clothing sales, and that the U.S. secondhand market grew nearly four times faster than the overall market by 2025.ThredUp’s own revenue climbed 20% to $310.8 m last year. Depop reported a 42% increase to £101 m, while Vinted posted a 36% rise to €813.4 m (£710 m) in 2024. However, profitability remains elusive: ThredUp posted a $20 m pre‑tax loss, Depop a £42 m loss, and only Vinted turned a profit, earning €76.7 m. Depop was recently acquired by eBay from Etsy.Reinhart warned that rising inflation—spurred by geopolitical tensions that lift energy and fuel costs for manufacturers—could push more shoppers toward affordable secondhand options."The industry stays robust, driven by young consumers' behaviour," he added.Artificial intelligence is streamlining the massive inventories of resale platforms, enabling rapid cataloguing and matching of items to buyer preferences. "Netflix and Spotify spent decades building data and algorithms to recommend content; AI can achieve similar personalization for fashion almost instantly," Reinhart explained, noting that this reduces friction between spotting an item on social media and completing a purchase.Looking ahead, the market’s next phase will be defined by firms that can unlock supply and leverage AI to connect inventory with the next generation of shoppers, according to Reinhart.Analyst Neil Saunders of GlobalData highlighted that consumers aged 14‑45 (Gen Z and millennials) are projected to generate 70% of market growth. He emphasized that discovery tools must migrate to the social feeds where these shoppers spend their time, and that technology will be essential to simplify selling and maintain sufficient stock for expanding demand.
#thredup #vinted #depop
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World Economy Apr 02, 2026

Korean Culture Sweeps Latin America: K-pop, Food, and Skincare Take Center Stage

The influence of Korean culture is rapidly expanding across Latin America, driven by a soft power c…
Korean culture is taking Latin America by storm, with K-pop, K-dramas, and Korean skincare products leading the charge. In Santiago, Chile, a group of young girls can be seen dancing to the beat of Blackpink's 'How You Like That', a song with over 1.3 billion views on YouTube. The phenomenon, known as hallyu or the 'Korean wave', has been spreading rapidly across the region, with Mexico, Colombia, and Brazil being key markets. Online personalities like Sujin Kim, known as Chingu Amiga, have become incredibly popular, sharing their love of K-dramas and skincare products with millions of followers. In Colombia, K-pop fan Zion Hwang has set up a string of karaoke restaurants to capitalize on the trend, while in Brazil, Korean-Brazilian influencers like Arthur Paek are promoting Korean culture and cuisine to their millions of followers. The Korean wave has also led to an increase in interest in Korean language and culture, with universities offering Korean studies programs and language classes becoming increasingly popular. Dr. Jinok Choi, director of the Universidad Central's Rey Sejong Institute in Santiago, notes that young Chileans are showing a 'real commitment to learning about Korea beyond just its culture'. The growth of Korean culture in Latin America is also being driven by a decline in the US's international appeal, with some observers suggesting that the US's flagging popularity under Donald Trump has led to a shift in interest towards Asian culture. Brazil's health minister, Alexandre Padilha, notes that 'perhaps the US is no longer, in people's imagination, the place they want to go'. As the Korean wave continues to sweep across Latin America, it's clear that Korean culture is here to stay. With K-pop concerts and K-drama fan events becoming increasingly popular, it's likely that the trend will only continue to grow in the coming years.
#korean #korea #culture
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News Apr 02, 2026

US Deploys Third Aircraft Carrier and Multiple Marine Expeditionary Units to Gulf as Iran Conflict Escalates – A Guide to Carrier Strike Groups and MEUs

Amid the second month of the US‑Israel war with Iran, the United States has added a third aircraft …
The United States is expanding its military footprint in the Gulf as the US‑Israel war with Iran enters its second month. Since the Feb. 28 launch of Operation Epic Fury, a joint air campaign targeting Iranian military and nuclear sites, more than four weeks of strikes have resulted in thousands of casualties.Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced the deployment of a third aircraft carrier, the USS George HW Bush, joining the USS Abraham Lincoln, which is currently conducting daily combat sorties from the Arabian Sea, and the USS Gerald Ford, now under maintenance in Croatia.These carrier groups carry thousands of sailors, Marines and specialised support personnel, forming the core of the US’s power projection in the region.Carrier Strike Group (CSG) refers to an aircraft carrier plus its escort ships and support units that together function as a floating base. A typical CSG includes:An aircraft carrier60‑75 fighter jets and helicopters2‑4 Arleigh Burke‑class destroyersA guided‑missile cruiserA submarine for underwater protectionSupply shipsAs of April 1, the USS Abraham Lincoln remains the only carrier launching daily combat missions against Iranian targets, while the USS George HW Bush is en route and expected to eventually replace the Gerald Ford in the Mediterranean.Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) operates as a mini‑carrier, carrying US Marines and equipment for sea‑to‑land invasions. The USS Tripoli ARG arrived in the Middle East on March 27, and the USS Boxer ARG is expected to join the theater by mid‑April. An ARG typically comprises:Three specialised ships~2,200 Marines (a Marine Expeditionary Unit)Short‑takeoff aircraftLanding craft for beach assaultsThe key distinction: ARGs are built to land troops on shore, whereas CSGs are designed to project air power and conduct major naval warfare.A Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) is a rapid‑response, self‑contained force of 2,200‑2,500 Marine Corps personnel capable of combat and humanitarian missions. On Friday, US Central Command confirmed that 2,200 Marines from the 31st MEU arrived in Middle Eastern waters after departing Sasebo, Japan, on March 13. A second unit, the 11th MEU with roughly 2,500 Marines, is inbound after leaving San Diego on March 18.The Pentagon has also ordered about 2,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division to move to the region, adding to the approximately 50,000 US troops already stationed in the Middle East.An MEU is organized into four elements:Command Element – ~200 personnel for planning and command‑and‑control.Ground Combat Element – ~1,200 troops centered on an infantry battalion with artillery and armoured vehicles.Aviation Combat Element – ~500 personnel operating transport helicopters, attack aircraft and Osprey tilt‑rotors.Logistics Combat Element – ~300 personnel providing up to 15 days of self‑sustainment, including medical, engineering and maintenance support.MEUs are typically deployed aboard a three‑ship ARG, which serves as a floating base. The ships include:Landing Helicopter Assault/Dock – a small carrier carrying short‑takeoff aircraft such as F‑35Bs and attack helicopters.Amphibious Transport Dock – a mid‑size vessel transporting troops and heavy vehicles.Dock Landing Ship – primarily for cargo and heavy equipment.MEUs can execute sea‑to‑land assaults, raids, evacuations, humanitarian aid and disaster‑relief operations, and they are often the first forces on the ground in emerging conflicts.The US Marine Corps maintains seven active MEUs; the 31st (Asia‑Pacific) and 11th (West Coast) are currently assigned to the Iran war. The other units are distributed as follows:East Coast: 22nd, 24th, 26th MEUWest Coast: 11th, 13th, 15th MEUAsia‑Pacific: 31st MEUTypically, three MEUs are forward‑positioned at any time, rotating through deployments in the Mediterranean, Gulf and Asia‑Pacific regions.Historically, MEUs have played pivotal roles in US operations: during the 2001 Afghanistan invasion, the 15th and 26th MEUs conducted one of the longest amphibious vertical insertions; in 2003‑2004 they helped secure Iraqi ports and fought in Fallujah; and in 2024 they provided sea‑based support for the attempted abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
#meu #carrier #marine
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Sports Apr 02, 2026

Italy's World Cup Qualification Collapse Fuels Political Firestorm and Calls for Football Overhaul

Italy's 4-1 penalty shoot‑out loss to Bosnia and Herzegovina in the World Cup 2026 playoff marks th…
Italy awoke on Wednesday in a state of anger and disbelief after the Azzurri were eliminated from the FIFA World Cup 2026 qualification by a 4-1 penalty shoot‑out defeat to Bosnia and Herzegovina, following a 1‑1 draw in regular time.The loss represents the third straight playoff elimination for Italy – previous setbacks came against Sweden and North Macedonia – and has revived what the front page of Corriere della Sera dubbed the "World Cup curse."Italian media, including La Gazzetta dello Sport and Corriere dello Sport, echoed the sentiment with headlines proclaiming “We’re all staying at home,” underscoring the depth of national disappointment.Key moments in the match included a red card for Alessandro Bastoni in the 42nd minute for a last‑man tackle, a turning point that shifted momentum despite Italy leading at the time.Fans expressed their shock and frustration: "Everything went badly from the start of the match. The team wasn’t good, players out of form… it makes no sense," said Davide Caldaretta, a spectator in a Rome pub, to Reuters.Melanie Cardillo, also speaking to Reuters, described herself as “really upset and disappointed,” adding that the repeated failures have eroded hope.Beyond football, Italy recently celebrated a record 30 medals at the Milan‑Cortina Winter Olympics and 40 medals at the 2024 Paris Summer Games, highlighting the country's broader sporting prowess, from speed skater Francesca Lollobrigida to tennis champion Jannik Sinner.Nevertheless, the football debacle prompted a political backlash. Sport Minister Andrea Abodi called on FIGC President Gabriele Gravina to resign, stating, "Italian football needs to be rebuilt from the ground up, starting with changes at the top of the FIGC."Gravina refused to step down, noting that a board meeting next week will determine his future. Tensions have risen between the government and the federation, with Gravina accusing the state of treating football as a "state sport" while favoring other disciplines.Former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi weighed in, calling the elimination “unfortunately not an April Fool’s joke” and emphasizing that football is integral to Italy’s cultural identity.In response to Gravina’s remarks, speed skater Francesca Lollobrigida posted sarcastically on Instagram, "I’m an amateur," underscoring the broader debate over responsibility for the missed qualification.As Italy prepares for the next board meeting, the nation faces a pivotal moment: whether to overhaul its football governance or continue grappling with a perceived "curse" that has kept the Azzurri out of the world stage for three consecutive cycles.
#italy #world #cup
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News Apr 02, 2026

UK to Convene 35-Nation Talks on Reopening Strait of Hormuz

The UK will host a virtual meeting of 35 countries to discuss measures to reopen the Strait of Horm…
The United Kingdom is set to convene a virtual meeting of 35 countries to assess measures to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical Gulf waterway that has been effectively closed due to the US-Israeli war on Iran. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced that UK Foreign Minister Yvette Cooper would host the meeting on Thursday.The meeting aims to “assess all viable diplomatic and political measures that we can take to restore freedom of navigation, guarantee the safety of trapped ships and seafarers and resume the movement of vital commodities”, according to Starmer.Countries around the world have raised serious concerns about Iran’s effective closure of the strait, through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquified natural gas supplies transit. The closure has sent global energy prices soaring and pushed nations to announce that they would release some of their strategic oil and gas reserves in an effort to lessen the crisis.Starmer emphasized that reopening the strait “will not be easy” and that countries that recently signed a statement saying they were ready “to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz” would take part in this week’s talks.In addition to the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the Netherlands are among the countries to have signed it. The UK and other European countries have faced condemnation from US President Donald Trump, who has accused them of both failing to take action to reopen the strait and not providing sufficient support to Washington in its war effort.
#strait #countries #starmer
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Politics Apr 02, 2026

India Embarks on Historic Census: Caste Enumeration Sparks Controversy

India has begun its largest-ever census, a $1.24 billion exercise that will survey 1.4 billion peop…
India has launched the world's largest census, a monumental task that involves surveying over 1.4 billion people across the country's 28 states and eight union territories. The $1.24 billion exercise, which began on Wednesday, will take place over the next year, with more than three million officials collecting data on household composition, living conditions, and access to basic amenities.The census will be conducted in two phases. The first phase, known as the House Listing and Housing Census, will focus on gathering information on household characteristics, while the second phase will involve population enumeration and socioeconomic details, including caste enumeration for the first time since 1931.The inclusion of caste enumeration has sparked controversy, with some arguing that it will help address social and economic disparities, while others fear it will exacerbate existing divisions. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government had initially resisted including caste questions, citing concerns about creating further social divisions.The census is crucial for policy planning and resource allocation, as it provides insights into demographic trends, housing conditions, and welfare amenities. However, experts have raised concerns about the delay in conducting the census, which has left significant data gaps and may impact the accuracy of surveys and policy decisions.There are also worries about how the census data will be used, particularly in light of the government's plans to implement a National Register of Citizens (NRC) and the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), which have been criticized for potentially targeting Muslims and other marginalized groups.Despite these concerns, experts argue that the census is essential for understanding India's complex social dynamics and addressing the needs of its diverse population. Dipa Sinha, a development economist, emphasized that the census data will help governments plan policies and citizens claim their rights.The census is expected to conclude by March 31 next year, with the government facing pressure to ensure transparency and credibility in the data collection process.
#India #Caste enumeration #Ministry of Home Affairs
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