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The conflict between the US and Iran has taken a critical turn with mediators from Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey circulating proposals for an immediate ceasefire to both Washington and Tehran. The goal is to halt the five-week-old war and prevent further escalation, particularly in light of Donald Trump's threat to bomb Iran's power plants if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened.The mediators are pushing for both sides to agree to suspend hostilities and reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil shipments. This temporary ceasefire would be followed by a period of detailed negotiations aimed at reaching a more comprehensive peace agreement.Iranian officials have indicated that they would not agree to open the Strait of Hormuz as part of a temporary ceasefire. Additionally, reports suggest that Iran is wary of entering into an agreement that could be violated by periodic attacks from the US and Israel.Trump's ultimatum has been met with strong resistance from Iran. The country's foreign ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, stated that peace negotiations are incompatible with ultimatums and threats of war crimes. Iran's central military command has warned of a 'much more devastating' retaliation should the US and Israel escalate their actions.Lawyers and experts have condemned the potential bombing of power plants and bridges as a likely war crime due to the disproportionate impact on civilians. The international community remains on high alert as the situation continues to deteriorate.Oil prices have fluctuated in response to the developments, with Brent crude futures initially falling by $1.92 to $107.11 a barrel on hopes of de-escalation before rising again. The conflict has already led to significant increases in oil prices, which were at $70 a barrel before the US and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February.The situation on the ground remains volatile, with Israel claiming responsibility for strikes on Iranian petrochemical facilities and Iran's Revolutionary Guards. There have been reports of casualties on both sides, including a missile strike in Haifa, northern Israel, and bombings in Beirut's southern suburbs.

Jamie Dimon, chairman and chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, used his highly‑watched annual letter to shareholders to press the White House to strengthen economic cooperation with U.S. allies, warning that a decline in shared prosperity could produce "truly adverse consequences" for democratic nations.His message arrives as the Iran‑Israel conflict enters its sixth week, a war that has already rattled global energy markets. Economists cited in the letter caution that prolonged fighting could push oil prices above $170 a barrel, a level capable of triggering a worldwide recession.Dimon’s appeal is widely read as a thinly‑veiled rebuke of President Donald Trump. Earlier this year, Trump filed a $5 billion lawsuit against Dimon and JPMorgan, accusing the bank of “de‑banking” him. The timing of Dimon’s comments—just days after Trump’s aggressive rhetoric urging foreign governments to "go get your own oil"—underscores the growing rift between the bank’s leadership and the administration."Economic weakening of the world’s democracies or a fragmentation of their economic bonds could lead to truly adverse consequences," Dimon wrote. He warned that adversarial states aim to make allies less dependent on the United States, potentially turning them into economic “vassals” of hostile regimes.Beyond geopolitics, Dimon highlighted the broader macro‑economic outlook. He warned that the war could generate "sticky" inflation, higher commodity prices, and disrupted supply chains, which together may force interest rates higher than markets currently anticipate. He echoed other economists in warning that inflation could rise rather than fall in 2026.Despite these challenges, Dimon expressed optimism about the U.S. economy, affirming his belief that "the American Dream is alive." He also turned to emerging technology, noting that artificial intelligence could deliver breakthroughs in healthcare, manufacturing, and safety, ultimately shortening the work week and extending life expectancy.Dimon’s annual letter—spanning nearly 50 pages and more than 20,000 words—remains a barometer for Wall Street sentiment. In it, he also critiqued the administration’s tariff policy, arguing that while tariffs have forced renegotiations, a comprehensive foreign‑economic strategy should promote growth both for the United States and its partners.As transatlantic relations strain under soaring energy costs and divergent trade policies, Dimon’s call for a coordinated economic front underscores a pivotal moment: the United States must decide whether to lead a cohesive democratic coalition or risk ceding influence to autocratic powers.

Two weeks after the United States and Israel entered a direct conflict with Iran, the White House faced mounting criticism that the war would drive up fuel costs and anger voters. Former President Donald Trump attempted to calm concerns on Truth Social, noting that the United States is the world’s largest oil producer and that higher prices translate into higher revenues for American companies. Now, five weeks into the hostilities, the reality is becoming clear: defense contractors and oil companies are the primary beneficiaries of the escalating energy market. The Department of Defense announced that Boeing will partner with Lockheed Martin to triple U.S. production of missile seekers, a move that sent Lockheed Martin’s stock up 25% since the start of the year. The announcement also lifted Boeing’s share price, underscoring how wartime procurement is boosting aerospace valuations. At the same time, Iran’s continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly one‑fifth of global oil and gas flows—has pushed U.S. crude from $65 to over $110 per barrel in just a month. Pump prices have mirrored this surge, breaking the $4‑a‑gallon barrier for the first time since 2022. Oil majors have responded with sharp stock gains; ExxonMobil, Shell and Chevron have each risen more than 20% year‑to‑date. According to market‑research firm Rystad Energy, U.S. oil producers stand to earn an additional $63 billion as barrels trade above $100. “Oil prices in March have been materially higher than anyone expected, delivering a windfall for the vast majority of U.S. energy companies,” said Leo Mariani, senior analyst at Roth Capital Partners. The last comparable price shock occurred in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when U.S. gasoline peaked at $5 per gallon and inflation surged to 9%. That episode generated $916 billion in global oil‑and‑gas profits, with U.S. firms accounting for $281 billion. Chevron’s subsequent $75 billion stock‑buyback program—seven times its prior year’s amount—illustrates how quickly companies can translate price spikes into shareholder returns. Research by economists Gregor Semieniuk and Isabella Weber revealed that in 2022, 50% of oil‑company profits went to the top 1% of Americans, while the bottom half of the wealth distribution captured just 1% of those gains. Analysts warn that the current conflict could generate even larger windfalls because it has damaged actual production capacity in the Middle East, not merely reshuffled supply. “You’re benefiting a lot more from higher prices than you are from lost production,” Mariani noted, emphasizing the outsized profit potential. Even if hostilities cease, restoring pre‑conflict output in the region may take months, prolonging the supply crunch. As senior fellow Clay Seagle of the Center for Strategic and International Studies explains, the current situation differs from 2022: “Now we’re dealing with a much more severe supply event because the oil has been actually removed from the market.” Prolonged high prices could eventually curb demand, as consumers and businesses seek alternatives—a shift seen after the 1970s oil shocks when the U.S. moved away from oil‑generated electricity. Nonetheless, many sectors remain vulnerable: diesel, a key fuel for trucks and aircraft, has risen 40%, and airline stocks such as United and American have fallen more than 15% since the year began. Moreover, disruptions to liquefied natural gas (LNG) production threaten fertilizer supplies essential for agriculture. Semieniuk cautions that “we’re approaching the kinds of disruption levels we saw in 2022, and with that, the kinds of profits that we saw there. If this takes longer, it’s going to surpass that.”

President Donald Trump warned that “all hell” would descend on Iran if Tehran failed to agree to a peace settlement within 48 hours. The Iranian government dismissed the demand as “helpless and nervous,” signaling a firm refusal to bow to U.S. pressure.Amid the diplomatic standoff, Iran reported that recent U.S.-Israeli strikes on the Mahshahr Petrochemical Zone resulted in five fatalities and left 170 people injured. The attacks, part of a broader campaign, have also targeted more than 30 Iranian universities since the conflict began, highlighting an expanding focus on the country’s educational and industrial infrastructure.In a separate development, a fire erupted at a key oil complex in Kuwait, raising concerns about potential interruptions to the nation’s oil output and the broader Gulf energy market. While the cause of the blaze remains under investigation, officials are working to contain the incident and prevent any spillover effects on global oil supplies.The twin events illustrate escalating geopolitical friction in the region. Iran’s rejection of the U.S. ultimatum may embolden further confrontations, while the Kuwait fire adds an economic dimension that could influence oil prices and investor sentiment worldwide.

The US labor market demonstrated unexpected strength in March, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3% despite concerns over economic instability and the ongoing conflict with Iran. According to the US Bureau of Labour Statistics, non-farm payrolls grew by 178,000 jobs in March, rebounding from a downwardly revised loss of 133,000 jobs in February.The healthcare sector led the gains, adding 76,000 jobs in March, significantly higher than the 29,000 average monthly increase over the last year. This surge follows a large-scale nursing strike that ended on February 24, which had temporarily removed over 30,000 healthcare workers from payrolls.The construction sector also saw notable growth, with 26,000 jobs added in March. Additionally, the transportation and warehousing sector grew by 21,000 jobs over the previous month, although it has experienced an overall loss of 139,000 jobs since February 2025.In contrast, the federal government, the largest employer in the US, continued to shrink, cutting 18,000 federal employee positions in March. This marks a 355,000 job decline from the same period last year.The White House has praised the jobs report as evidence that President Trump's policies are stimulating the domestic economy. Kush Desai, White House deputy press secretary, stated that the March jobs report 'blew out expectations' with strong construction job growth and a surge in manufacturing job creation.However, experts warn that the impact of the US conflict with Iran, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, is not yet fully reflected in the job numbers. Economists at JPMorgan cautioned that negative payroll readings could become more common, and Angela Hanks, chief of policy programmes at The Century Foundation, noted that wage growth has stalled, and oil prices are skyrocketing, threatening to weaken the job market.The economic uncertainty is also affecting US consumers, with the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey dropping by 6% in March to its lowest level since December 2025. Furthermore, the average price for a gallon of petrol has increased to $4.09 ($1.08 per litre), up from $3.10 ($0.82 per litre) this time last month.

The ongoing war in Iran has ignited a fresh oil supply shock, sending crude prices soaring and rippling through economies worldwide. Analysts note that the conflict’s persistence is tightening global oil flows, prompting immediate spikes in gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel costs. Energy traders report that the heightened uncertainty has amplified market volatility, with benchmark crude benchmarks climbing to levels not seen in months. The price surge is pressuring both consumers and businesses, as higher fuel costs translate into increased transportation expenses and broader inflationary pressures. Governments and central banks are now monitoring the situation closely, aware that sustained higher oil prices could erode economic growth and strain household budgets, especially in regions heavily dependent on imported energy. While the full economic impact remains to be quantified, the consensus among experts is clear: the prolonged Iran war is reshaping the global energy landscape, underscoring the fragility of supply chains and the need for diversified energy strategies.

The ongoing conflict between the US and Israel against Iran has significantly impacted global oil supplies, causing prices to surge. Despite this, US President Donald Trump claims that the US is 'totally independent' of the Middle East and doesn't need their oil. However, experts argue that the oil market is highly interconnected, making it unlikely that the US can escape the effects of the crisis.The US is a major oil producer, having surpassed other countries due to the fracking boom. Yet, it still imports millions of barrels per day, with a significant portion coming from Gulf nations. This reliance on imports means that the US is not as insulated from global price trends as Trump suggests.Oil prices have risen by nearly half since the start of the war, with Brent crude trading above $100 per barrel. This increase has had a ripple effect on the global economy, with US fuel prices breaching $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022. The surge in fuel costs is likely to impact the US economy and may influence the midterm elections.Experts warn that the concept of 'energy independence' may be a 'smokescreen' and that low-income households will be disproportionately affected by higher fuel prices. While some sectors of the US economy, such as energy production, may benefit from the current situation, the overall impact on consumers is expected to be negative.The article also highlights the broader implications of the conflict, including disruptions to global fertilizer supplies and helium production. With the Strait of Hormuz remaining paralyzed, the effects of the crisis are likely to be prolonged, and experts are skeptical that fuel prices will quickly return to normal even if the conflict ends soon.

According to a new United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) briefing, the global food commodity price index climbed 2.4% in March, marking the second straight monthly increase and the first rise in five months for the broader basket of grains, meat, dairy, vegetable oils and sugar.The surge is largely attributed to the escalating conflict in the Middle East, which has pushed up energy prices and freight rates worldwide. The report highlighted that vegetable oil prices jumped 5% and sugar rose 7% during the month.Analysts warn that the war could trigger a broader wave of food inflation, as higher fuel, fertiliser and electricity costs increase the expense of transporting, processing and cooking food. About one‑third of global fertiliser production passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping lane that has been effectively closed since hostilities began.UN projections suggest that, if the crisis endures, global food prices could be 15%–20% higher in the first half of 2026 than pre‑conflict levels. The FAO noted that “price indices across all commodity groups rose to varying degrees, reflecting both market fundamentals and responses to higher energy prices linked to the conflict escalation in the Near East.”Specific commodity trends showed global wheat prices up 4.3% in March, driven by deteriorating crop conditions and drought concerns in the United States, as well as reduced planting in Australia due to soaring fertiliser costs. Better weather in Europe and strong export competition provided some offset.In the United Kingdom, the Food and Drink Federation – representing 12,000 manufacturers – now forecasts a **minimum 9% rise in food prices by the end of 2026**, a sharp increase from the 3.2% forecast made before the Middle East conflict. This outlook assumes the Strait of Hormuz reopens within weeks and that major energy facilities return to normal within a year – both uncertain outcomes.British producers are already feeling the pressure. The British Tomato Growers’ Association warned that consumers could see higher prices for tomatoes, peppers and cucumbers within six weeks as gas‑heated glasshouses become more expensive to run.Chancellor Rachel Reeves recently met with leaders of major retailers—including Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Morrisons, Marks & Spencer, Aldi and Lidl—to discuss measures that could ease the cost‑of‑living squeeze and strengthen supply chains.Nevertheless, a Bank of England survey of over 2,000 chief financial officers revealed that firms expect to raise their prices by an average of 3.7% over the next year, up from 3.4% in February. Expectations for overall economy‑wide inflation also rose from 3% to 3.5%.

Richard Walker, executive chair of the Iceland supermarket chain and Labour’s appointed cost‑of‑living tsar, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that the government should extend the 5‑pence fuel duty cut beyond its September expiry to cushion households from soaring petrol prices. The call comes as the Strait of Hormuz—a vital conduit for roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil—remains blockaded after the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran at the end of February. The disruption has triggered a sharp rise in global oil prices, intensifying pressure on the UK economy. Under current policy, UK fuel duty is frozen until September, when a review is scheduled. By contrast, Australia recently announced a 14‑pence‑per‑litre cut to its fuel tax, highlighting the disparity with the UK’s modest 5‑pence reduction. Walker emphasized on air: “Given where we are, we need to be thinking about extending or enlarging the existing cut.” He noted that the original 5‑pence reduction was introduced by the Conservative government in March 2022. Chancellor Rachel Reeves had pledged in her November budget to keep the cut in place until August, followed by a gradual increase over five years. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has signalled that the planned September rise will remain “under review” in light of the ongoing conflict. Data from the RAC shows that, since the war began, the average price of a litre of diesel at UK forecourts has jumped 30 % to 185.2 pence, while petrol has risen 16 % to 154.5 pence per litre. Opposition parties are also weighing in: the Conservatives propose scrapping VAT on energy bills for several years, Reform UK calls for a VAT cut on fuel, and the Liberal Democrats advocate a 10‑pence fuel duty reduction.