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The ongoing conflict between the US and Israel and Iran has significantly altered the dynamics of the nuclear programme negotiations. Former US envoys who dealt with Iran have stated that the US-Israeli attack on Iran and Tehran's subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz have given Iran new tools and resolve to resist pressure to shutter its nuclear programme.Two senior negotiators for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Obama-era agreement to limit Iran's nuclear uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief, said the Trump administration's war had handed Iran a coveted weapon by demonstrating its ability to cut off the Strait of Hormuz, an economic chokehold that one negotiator said would help Iran 'balance the asymmetry of power' with the US.Alan Eyre, a former diplomat who helped negotiate the JCPOA, noted that 'this administration, to say it more politely, cannot unsoil the bed. There's no way to get back to the status quo ante before this war started.'In 2018, Donald Trump withdrew the US from the JCPOA, which barred Tehran from enriching its uranium to weapons-grade. Trump called the deal 'one of the worst and most one-sided transactions' the US had ever entered into.However, after a strategy of high pressure – first through returning sanctions and then, after Trump's return to power in 2025, a war that was meant to destroy Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities – the current US administration has found itself in more complex negotiations than before its campaign of economic and military strikes.Robert Malley, a Yale lecturer who was former special envoy to Iran under Joe Biden and a lead negotiator on the JCPOA, said: 'The strait of Hormuz wasn't an issue before the US decided to strike. You have all the issues inherited from the past, but you just added a few, because the US has handed Iran a tool that it always had, but it never thought of using, or never felt it could.'The chances for a comprehensive agreement addressing all of the US and Iran's grievances appear slim. While the Obama administration sought to negotiate exclusively on Iran's nuclear programme in the lead-up to the 2015 agreement, the Trump administration has sought a broader deal limiting Iran's ballistic missiles programme and its support for regional proxies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.

The Gulf Cooperation Council is reassessing its security model after the brief but intense US‑Israel campaign against Iran. With American bases on Gulf soil turning the region into a target for Tehran’s missile and drone barrage, Gulf capitals are looking to diversify their defence partners beyond the United States. Iran’s lingering missile arsenal and its demand to retain control of the Strait of Hormuz remain the central security dilemma. The strait channels the bulk of Gulf oil trade, and Tehran’s insistence on keeping a foothold there was a sticking point in the cease‑fire talks scheduled to begin in Islamabad. Gulf air defences boasted a high interception rate, claiming to have neutralised more than 90% of the 2,256 drones and 563 missiles that struck the United Arab Emirates, the hardest‑hit member of the bloc. Nevertheless, the Gulf is split on how to engage Iran moving forward. A hawkish bloc led by the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain favours a tougher stance, while Saudi Arabia, Qatar and others are open to restoring diplomatic ties. In a rare development, Saudi Arabia and Iran held their first official conversation since the conflict began, with foreign ministers discussing measures to lower tensions and restore regional stability. Security scholars such as Bader Mousa Al‑Saif of Kuwait University argue that Gulf states must broaden their security network, forging alliances with regional powers like Turkey and Pakistan rather than relying solely on the United States. He warned that the region needs a model that shields it from a perpetual state of war. Pre‑war trends are now accelerating: Saudi Arabia recently signed a defence pact with Pakistan, the UAE announced a partnership with India, and all three Gulf states – Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar – entered rapid defence agreements with Ukraine to counter Iranian drone threats. Talks of a “Muslim NATO” have largely faded, but a new alignment dubbed “Step”, involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan, is taking shape. The coalition’s purpose remains ambiguous, oscillating between counter‑Iran and counter‑Israel objectives, and internal rivalries complicate cohesion. The United Kingdom, which helped protect Gulf airspace during the hostilities, is also seeking deeper defence‑industrial cooperation with Saudi Arabia, as discussed by Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Jeddah. UAE political scientist Abdulkhaleq Abdulla predicts tighter security ties with the United States and a growing willingness among Gulf states to engage with Israel on military and intelligence fronts. Analysts such as Yasmine Farouk of the International Crisis Group note that Saudi Arabia’s extensive oil infrastructure, Red Sea ports and sheer geographic size give it a strategic advantage in post‑war reconstruction, though the cost of rebuilding could strain its Vision 2030 diversification agenda. Looking ahead, the Gulf is expected to layer additional security partnerships—particularly with European nations—while investing heavily in air and missile defence, hardened ports, desalination facilities, maritime surveillance and alternative export routes. As Andreas Krieg of King’s College London observes, the United States remains the only power with a full‑scale military architecture in the Gulf, but its bases are increasingly viewed as “tripwires” rather than protective shields.

Saudi Arabia has halted operational activities at several energy facilities due to recent attacks, according to the Saudi Press Agency. The attacks targeted oil, gas, and electricity sites in Riyadh, the Eastern Province, and Yanbu Industrial City.The attacks resulted in the death of one Saudi national from the industrial security personnel of the Saudi energy company, with seven others injured. The attacks have reduced the kingdom's oil production capacity by approximately 600,000 barrels per day.The Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar, have faced repeated drone and missile attacks from Iran over recent weeks. These attacks have contributed to increased volatility in the oil market, affecting the security of supply for consuming countries.Oil prices have jumped upward as the world weighs the prospects of a shaky Iran-US ceasefire and possibly the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil transit point that Iran has effectively blocked during the conflict.The ceasefire, announced by US President Donald Trump, has been placed in doubt due to Israel's ongoing daily attacks on Lebanon and Iran's attacks on the Gulf countries. Several leaders around the world have called for Lebanon to be included in the ceasefire.

The Gulf region breathed a sigh of relief on Tuesday after Iran and the United States agreed to a two-week truce, halting over five weeks of escalating attacks and hostile rhetoric.However, Gulf states are expressing caution, concerned that the US, seeking a swift exit, might agree to terms granting Iran some control over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which one fifth of the world's oil and natural liquefied gas passes.Iran had nearly brought traffic through the strait to a standstill in response to joint US-Israeli attacks on its soil since February 28. Under the truce, Iran has agreed to halt attacks for two weeks in exchange for resumed maritime transit in the key waterway.Despite this, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are stressing that any deal must result in a permanent, long-term arrangement to keep the strait open. They fear a weakened yet intact Iranian leadership could use the strait as leverage, leaving them under constant threat of disruption and economic blackmail.“There is a quiet but palpable concern that President Trump, eager for a quick political victory, could tolerate some Iranian leverage over the strait in exchange for a fragile truce, prioritising optics over Gulf realities,” said Hesham Alghannam, a Saudi Arabia-based scholar at the Malcolm H Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center.The GCC countries, which have faced near-daily Iranian missile and drone attacks, have welcomed the truce but emphasize that the Strait of Hormuz must reopen. They are also concerned about Iran's future influence over the strait, with a Bahrain-sponsored UN Security Council resolution calling for countries to use defensive missions to keep the maritime chokepoint open being vetoed by Russia and China.A further escalation could have devastating consequences for the GCC economies, undoing decades of work to make the region a safe hub for finance, tourism, and culture. Analysts say GCC countries have stepped up diplomacy in the lead-up to the conflict, but officials across the region have warned Iran should not mistake their inaction as a sign of weakness.“The Gulf will leave no stone unturned if Iran continues to take the path of aggression,” said Hamad Althunayyan, a political analyst and professor at Kuwait University. “The Gulf expects its interests to be represented, and included, in any deal with Iran.”

Residents of Tehran and much of Iran are breathing a sigh of relief after a two-week ceasefire was announced, bringing an end to daily bombardments. The ceasefire, agreed upon by Iran and the US with mediation from Pakistan, has allowed some traffic to return to the streets of the Iranian capital during daylight hours.Despite the temporary reprieve, Tehran remains far from its usual bustling state, having been targeted by several thousand munitions since February 28. The Iranian capital is home to more than 10 million people. Air defence systems were activated for short periods several times since the ceasefire was announced overnight, but there were no reports of impacts or any official explanation for the activations.People across Tehran are debating whether the ceasefire will hold and what the future may hold for them. A young man noted, “Looks like the ceasefire will continue. I heard the Israelis are opening up their airspace more,” referring to an announcement by Israeli authorities that flights will resume from Ben Gurion Airport.However, others are more pessimistic, especially after two critical islands off southern Iran were attacked on Wednesday morning, hitting oil facilities. It is unclear who was behind the attack. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it shot down a drone in the southern province of Fars.Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain also reported attacks on their territories by missiles and drones from Iran, with Iranian state television confirming this was in retaliation for the post-ceasefire oil attacks. Tehran said it was ready to restart military operations if attacked again.On Tuesday, Iranians had been worried about the targeting of critical civilian infrastructure, such as power plants and bridges, after a threat from US President Donald Trump to end “civilisation” in a country with one of the world’s oldest civilisations. The ceasefire was announced shortly before the midnight GMT deadline that Trump had set for an agreement to be reached.The Israeli military intensified its attacks in the hours preceding the ceasefire, hitting electricity outposts, bridges, and the railway network. Warplanes also struck the Iranian Aluminium Company in Arak, damaging the country’s largest aluminium production facility.Even after the ceasefire, Israel continued attacking Lebanon, killing more than 250 people in a devastating day of attacks on Wednesday. Israel said it was targeting Iran’s ally Hezbollah, but civilian locations across Lebanon were hit.Trump hailed what he described as a decisive victory against Iran while announcing the ceasefire, but his top general emphasised that the deal only signifies a pause and combat operations could start once again if no final deal is reached. The US military said it struck 13,000 targets across Iran in less than six weeks of war.In Iran, similar proclamations of victory and celebrations were broadcast from Iranian state television. A statement from the Supreme National Security Council urged supporters of the government to trust in the system and refrain from making “divisive commentary”.The council also stressed that affairs were being overseen by Mojtaba Khamenei, who was declared Iran’s supreme leader after his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed on the first day of the war on February 28.

The conflict in Gaza has resulted in a significant number of amputations, with over 6,000 adults and children undergoing amputations since October 2023, according to the WHO and Palestinian Ministry of Health. Ola Jamal, 36, is one of the many Palestinians who have been forced to flee Gaza due to the conflict. She was breastfeeding her two-month-old son, Zain, when a missile struck al-Nasr hospital in Gaza, causing her to lose her arm. Jamal and her family were forced to separate, with her children being cared for by another family. This traumatic experience has had a lasting impact on Jamal and her children, with her son Zain still experiencing nightmares and trauma two years after the event. Shadi Sharif Ayesh al-Sous, a father of two, lost his leg in a missile strike while collecting firewood. He had his leg amputated above the knee and now waits to return home to Gaza. However, many Palestinians in Egypt face significant challenges, including restricted access to healthcare and prosthetic care due to their uncertain legal status. Yousef El Deeb, a certified prosthetist at Orthomedics in Cairo, says his clinic has treated about 300 Palestinian patients since October 2023, mostly through the support of NGOs. However, the lack of documentation and uncertain legal status of Palestinians in Egypt makes it difficult for them to access long-term prosthetic care without the support of NGOs. The situation for Palestinians in Egypt is further complicated by their lack of formal residency or refugee status. Without valid residency permits, survivors are often restricted to hostels or share a flat with other families, unable to work and living under the constant pressure of temporary status. This lack of documentation makes accessing hi-tech, long-term prosthetic care almost impossible without the support of NGOs.

The recent showdown between the US and Iran has ended with Iran emerging victorious and Trump being forced to pause his war efforts. This outcome is a clear example of how to defeat Trump. According to Robert Reich, a former US secretary of labor, the strategy that connects all the successful countermeasures against Trump is simple: refuse to cave to his demands, despite his superior military or economic power. Instead, use a kind of jiujitsu to turn Trump's power against him. Examples of successful countermeasures include: Iran using cheap drones and missiles to close the strait of Hormuz and drive up oil prices, putting pressure on Trump. China leveraging its control of rare earth metals to gain leverage in trade negotiations. Russia using its vast deposits of oil and natural gas to gain leverage over US allies. Canada and Mexico winning tariff showdowns with Trump by leveraging their economic importance to the US. Greenland curbing Trump's ambitions through public opinion. Inside the US, similar strategies have been used by: The people of Minneapolis, who organized non-violent resistance to protect immigrants. Harvard University, which leveraged its influence with federal courts to stop Trump's interference. Comedian Jimmy Kimmel, who turned a crisis into a ratings victory. Writer E Jean Carroll, who secured over $88m in damages from Trump in two civil cases. Law firms like Perkins Coie, Jenner & Block, Susman Godfrey, and WilmerHale, which refused to follow Trump's executive orders. On the other hand, countries and organizations that have caved to Trump have only strengthened his leverage over them. For example, Europe seems incapacitated, fearing Trump will leave Nato, while media networks like ABC continue to lose viewers. The bottom line is that there is now a clear blueprint for how to defeat Trump: reject his demands and use your own asymmetric power to turn his power against him.

Britain has weathered a succession of crises since the 2008 financial collapse— austerity, Brexit, Covid, the Ukraine war and recent political turbulence. Prime Minister Keir Starmer says the war in Iran must become a turning point, forcing the country to build lasting resilience at home and with its European partners.Starmer stresses that the UK’s response to the Iranian aggression has been guided by de‑escalation, diplomacy and the swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. While Britain avoided direct offensive action, it intercepted drones, shot down missiles and protected British lives and interests alongside allies who share the same stance.The government’s approach, he explains, is to reduce escalation, work with allies and safeguard economic stability. In a world that is “more volatile and dangerous than at any other point in my lifetime,” such a strategy is presented as essential for protecting British interests.Starmer links global instability to domestic pressures, noting that the same tensions that threaten security also drive up energy prices, disrupt supply chains and strain household finances. To counter this, his administration has capped energy bills and invested heavily in homegrown energy sources, aiming to free the UK from reliance on external gas suppliers.On the defence front, the UK has announced the largest sustained increase in defence spending since the Cold War, reinforcing European alliances and expanding military capacity. Parallel to these security measures, the government has launched an ambitious industrial strategy, strengthened workers’ rights and pledged to lift more than half a million children out of poverty through a new child‑poverty programme.Starmer argues that these policies are not isolated reactions but part of a broader shift toward long‑term resilience. By building secure, domestic energy, robust alliances and a stable economy, Britain can “shape its future and deliver on priorities that matter to working people.”He concludes that Britain will not attempt to recreate the pre‑2008 world; instead, it will forge a stronger, more secure, and more resilient nation capable of withstanding future shocks.

As the clock ticked down to President Donald Trump’s 8 p.m. deadline to force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the six‑week Middle East conflict teetered on the brink of a far more devastating escalation.Trump’s rhetoric had escalated dramatically, with his Truth Social posts warning that the United States would unleash strikes capable of “decimating every bridge and power plant in Iran” and that “a whole civilisation will die tonight.” Legal experts labeled the language as bordering on a genocidal threat.Amid the rising tension, a series of rapid developments unfolded on Tuesday:12:06 GMT – Trump announced a plan to target Iran’s civilian infrastructure, promising total destruction of bridges and power facilities.15:21 GMT – Iranian media confirmed that US strikes hit Kharg Island, the nation’s primary oil‑export hub, but reported no significant damage.15:40 GMT – In the UN Security Council, China and Russia vetoed a Bahraini resolution aimed at protecting commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, arguing the draft was biased against Tehran.16:54 GMT – Qatar’s defence ministry reported a successful missile interception, while the United Arab Emirates warned of a barrage of missile and drone attacks.18:23 GMT – Iran’s envoy to Pakistan, Reza Amiri Moghadam, signalled a “step forward” after a “critical, sensitive stage,” praising Pakistan’s “positive and productive” peace efforts.19:17 GMT – Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif appealed to Trump to extend the deadline by two weeks, urging Tehran to keep the Strait open as a goodwill gesture.20:25 GMT – Iran warned it would target US and Gulf‑allied energy infrastructure, threatening to block regional oil and gas supplies for years.20:41 GMT – Joint US‑Israeli airstrikes struck the Amirkabir Petrochemical Plant in Mahshahr, Iran, prompting local assessments of damage.With less than ninety minutes remaining, diplomatic channels intensified. Pakistani officials, including the military chief Asim Munir, facilitated talks that culminated in a two‑week, double‑sided cease‑fire announced by Trump at 22:45 GMT. The United States claimed to have received a “workable” 10‑point proposal from Tehran.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi quickly confirmed the truce, stating Iran would honor it provided attacks on its territory ceased. Sharif then invited both Iranian and US delegations to Islamabad for further negotiations aimed at a permanent settlement.Early Wednesday, Trump’s tone shifted dramatically. In a Truth Social post he hailed the cease‑fire as a potential “Golden Age for the Middle East,” celebrating the pause in hostilities and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.The episode underscores how last‑minute diplomacy, spearheaded by Pakistan, averted a catastrophic escalation and opened a narrow window for a broader peace process in a region long mired in conflict.