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The US and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, leading to a decrease in UK interest rate hike expectations. City traders now predict only one rate rise by December, taking the Bank of England's base rate back to 4%. Previously, markets had priced in two rate hikes as tensions escalated, with Donald Trump warning of severe consequences if Iran did not comply with his demands. However, with the ceasefire in place, rate expectations have fallen, and only 32 basis points of hikes are now expected for the year, down from 62 basis points the previous day. The decline in rate expectations is linked to the significant drop in oil prices, with Brent crude down 13.3% to $94.71 a barrel. This decrease in oil prices could bring relief to UK consumers, potentially leading to lower petrol prices and easing inflationary pressures. Despite the current relief, experts caution that mortgage rates may not fall quickly. The average two-year fixed-rate mortgage has risen to 5.90%, the highest since July 2024. Analysts suggest that while the ceasefire may slow or pause mortgage rate increases, it is unlikely to trigger sharp falls. Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, notes that the ceasefire brings relief for UK consumers but emphasizes that the chances of a rate hike by the Bank of England have been reduced. He adds that the 'heady days' of sustained rate cuts are unlikely to return in the short term. Adam French, head of consumer finance at Moneyfacts, advises that while easing tensions have pushed down expectations for future interest rate rises, mortgage rates are likely to remain higher for some time yet, with lenders cautious about making sudden moves due to market volatility.

Oil markets experienced a dramatic correction on Wednesday, with Brent crude falling 13.9% to $94.10 per barrel and U.S. WTI futures sliding almost 16% to $95, marking the steepest daily percentage drop since the COVID‑19 crash of April 2020. Despite the plunge, prices remain well above pre‑conflict levels, when Brent traded below $73.The price shock followed President Donald Trump's announcement of a two‑week, conditional ceasefire with Iran, contingent on Tehran reopening the strategic Strait of Hormuz for oil tankers. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, confirmed the strait would be managed by the Iranian military during the grace period, while Iran’s national security council accepted the ceasefire on the condition that U.S. attacks be halted.Equity markets reacted positively. The pan‑European Stoxx 600 surged 4%, its biggest one‑day gain in over four years. In the UK, the FTSE 100 climbed nearly 3% to 10,646 points, its highest level since the early days of the Iran war. Travel and leisure stocks led the rally, with Air France up 14.5%, Lufthansa +11%, IAG +9.5% and TUI +12%.Oil majors were the notable laggards; BP and Shell each lost more than 5% as investors priced in continued supply uncertainty. Asian markets also posted strong gains: Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose over 5%, Australia’s S&P;/ASX 200 jumped 2.55%, South Korea’s Kospi surged 7.5%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 3.1% and China’s CSI300 climbed 3.2%.Bond yields eased on the ceasefire news. The U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield fell to 4.24% from 4.30%, while the UK 10‑year gilt slipped to 4.7% from 4.9%.Safe‑haven assets rallied as well: gold rose more than 2% to $4,812 per ounce, and cryptocurrencies recovered, with Bitcoin up 2.9% to $71,327 and Ether gaining 5.6% to $2,234.Market strategists emphasized the provisional nature of the relief. Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank markets strategist, warned that “investors will be breathing a big sigh of relief, but the durability of the ceasefire remains the key risk.” He noted ongoing Israeli‑Iran strikes and unclear extensions to Lebanon could reignite volatility.Energy analyst Saul Kavonic (MST Financial) described the pause as “an off‑ramp for Trump’s bombastic ultimatum, but not yet an off‑ramp for oil markets or the war.” He expects a limited release of tankers from Hormuz in May, which would ease storage pressure without boosting production.Capital Economics chief economist Neil Shearing highlighted potential transit fees for Hormuz passage, estimating a $1‑2 million charge per tanker—equivalent to roughly $1 per barrel—would have a modest effect on global oil prices but could signal a de‑facto partial nationalisation of the route.TD Securities senior strategist Prashant Newnaha cautioned that “renewed escalation cannot be ruled out, but markets are treating this ceasefire as the real deal, and all parties will sell it as a major win.” He added that oil prices are unlikely to revert to pre‑war levels, keeping inflationary pressures alive.Earlier in the week, U.S. equities swung sharply, with the S&P; 500 dipping 1.2% before rebounding after Pakistan’s prime minister urged Trump to extend the deadline and keep the strait open.The conflict, which began after the U.S. and Israel struck Iranian targets in late February, has choked the Strait of Hormuz—through which about 20% of global oil and LNG supplies flow—fueling a worldwide energy crunch.

The United States and Iran have agreed to a two-week conditional ceasefire, mediated by Pakistan, which includes the temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This development comes after a last-minute diplomatic intervention led by Pakistan's Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, and a threatened US military response.US President Donald Trump had issued an ultimatum for Iran to surrender or face widespread destruction, but less than two hours before the self-imposed 8pm Eastern time deadline, he announced the ceasefire agreement. The agreement is conditional on Iran's complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz.The ceasefire process was clouded in uncertainty after Iran released two different versions of the 10-point plan intended to be the basis for negotiations. Oil prices dived, stocks surged, and the dollar was knocked back on Wednesday as a two-week Middle East ceasefire sparked a relief rally, fueled by hopes that oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz could resume.Despite the provisional ceasefire, attacks continued across the region in the hours after Trump's announcement. The sudden about-face will allow Trump to step back as the US war in Iran has dragged on for five weeks with little sign that Tehran is ready to surrender or release its hold on the strait, a conduit for a fifth of the global energy supply.The agreement was welcomed by various countries, including Germany, Japan, and South Korea, who expressed hopes for a lasting ceasefire and peaceful resolution. However, some countries, such as Iraq and Australia, called for caution and noted that significant work remains to be done to secure a lasting ceasefire.

The looming conflict in Iran has raised concerns about the potential impact on global oil prices, which could have far-reaching consequences for Africa's economy. As a significant importer of oil, the continent is vulnerable to fluctuations in the global market. Rising oil prices could lead to increased inflation, reduced economic growth, and a decline in living standards for many Africans.Africa's economic resilience will be put to the test as the conflict in Iran threatens to disrupt global oil supplies. The continent's dependence on oil imports makes it particularly susceptible to price shocks. Countries with large oil imports, such as South Africa and Nigeria, will be among the hardest hit.The article highlights the need for Africa to diversify its economy and reduce its reliance on oil imports. Investing in renewable energy sources and developing domestic industries could help mitigate the impact of future oil shocks. However, the continent's ability to adapt to these changes remains uncertain.

Oil prices have skyrocketed to more than $110 a barrel following Donald Trump's threat of military action against Iran. The international benchmark for oil prices, Brent crude, rose by 1% to $111 a barrel, while New York light crude jumped 2.6% to $115.3 a barrel. Investors are growing increasingly anxious as Trump escalates his threats against Iran, demanding it reopen the Strait of Hormuz as part of any deal to stop the war. The president set a deadline of Tuesday 8pm ET (1am BST Wednesday) for Iran to agree to a deal with Washington or face fresh attacks on civil infrastructure, including power plants. “The entire country can be taken out in one night, and that night might be tomorrow night,” Trump said. He emphasized that passage through the Strait – a vital shipping channel through which a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies normally pass – was a “very big priority” and should be part of any ceasefire deal. Global stock markets have been choppy since the US-Israel attack on Iran in February, as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has fed fears around inflation and rattled investor confidence. On Monday, Kristalina Georgieva, the head of the International Monetary Fund, warned that the war is likely to lead to higher inflation and slower global growth. Georgieva told Reuters that before the war began, the IMF had expected a small upgrade in its expectation for global growth of 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. Instead, she said, “all roads now lead to higher prices and slower growth”. The IMF is expected to publish its report on the world economic outlook next week.

The Iran war has laid bare the world's reliance on fossil fuels, with oil prices reaching $110 a barrel and potentially rising to $150. This has significant implications for global food security, with food prices expected to leap further due to a fertiliser supply crunch.The UN climate chief, Simon Stiell, noted that fossil fuel dependency is 'ripping away national security and sovereignty and replacing it with subservience and rising costs.' The world's top emitters are divided into two camps: those pursuing a low-carbon future and those determined to exploit their fossil fuel reserves.China, the world's biggest emitter, is leading the charge for an electrified future, with renewables growing at record levels and clean energy driving a third of its GDP growth. India has also set ambitious targets, aiming to generate 60% of its electricity from low-carbon sources by 2035.In contrast, countries like the US, Russia, and Saudi Arabia are benefiting from high fossil fuel prices, with the US oil and gas sector set for a $60bn windfall. The US under Trump stands out as a paradox, with emissions falling until last year but now facing a potential rollback of climate protections.The war in Iran has also highlighted the need for a global transition to clean energy. As John Kerry noted, 'The future is being able to harness the power of electrons and send them where we need them, and use them where and when we need them.' Reducing methane emissions could cut temperatures by 0.3C by the 2040s, and a mandatory methane agreement may be necessary to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

For Konstantin, a 53‑year‑old resident of St Petersburg, the war in Ukraine has become a literal scent in the air. Over the past fortnight he has repeatedly detected the acrid odor of burning crude, fuel and chemicals drifting from Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia’s two largest Baltic oil terminals. The facilities at Ust‑Luga and Primorsk together handle about 40% of Moscow’s seaborne oil exports and roughly 2% of global oil supply, according to the International Energy Agency. Both ports lie within 150 km of St Petersburg, making the smoke visible – and smelt – to locals. Ukrainian drones have flown more than 1,000 km from the front lines to strike storage tanks and loading infrastructure, igniting fires that have burned for days. The smell, described by Konstantin as a mix of diesel exhaust, burning plastic and rotten eggs, first appeared in late March. These attacks are a key element of Kyiv’s strategy to erode Russia’s “unexpected windfall” from oil exports, a revenue stream that has surged as the US‑Israel campaign against Iran pushed global oil prices higher. Satellite imagery shows extensive damage at both terminals, with Ust‑Luga’s sprawling processing complex blackened by fire. As a result, both ports are currently unable to dispatch cargo, forcing traders to reroute oil to smaller Baltic and Black Sea ports that lack the capacity to absorb the displaced volume. Financial analysts estimate that the disruption has already cost Moscow roughly $1 billion in lost export earnings, according to Bloomberg data released on March 31. Moreover, every $10 rise in global oil prices translates into about $1.6 billion of additional monthly income for the Kremlin. Russian officials have blamed European nations for allegedly facilitating the drone overflights, but Ukrainian experts dispute this claim. Andrey Pronin, a pioneer of Ukraine’s drone warfare, emphasized that the strikes are meticulously planned to stay within Russian airspace, bypassing air‑defence systems. Since the campaign began, Ukrainian forces have targeted 13 oil sites, seriously damaging at least eight refineries from the Baltic coast to the Volga region. The attacks are timed to coincide with the heightened profitability Russia enjoys from the Iran‑related oil price surge, according to researcher Nikolay Mitrokhin of Bremen University. Beyond the immediate economic impact, Kyiv views the strikes as leverage in negotiations with Moscow. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has floated the idea of a temporary moratorium on attacks against Ukrainian energy infrastructure in exchange for concessions, though the strategy also inadvertently benefits Iran by sustaining higher oil prices. On the tactical side, Ukraine now relies heavily on FP‑1 drones produced by the domestic Firepoint company. These unmanned aircraft can carry up to 120 kg of explosives and travel roughly 1,500 km, enabling strikes deep inside Russian territory. For civilians living near the conflict zones, the nightly “fireworks” of explosions have become a grim routine. Abdulla, a Tatar resident of Crimea, described the constant shelling as a new normal, while analysts note that President Vladimir Putin remains resolute, using the ongoing talks with the White House as a diplomatic façade. Overall, the Ukrainian drone campaign illustrates how modern warfare increasingly intertwines kinetic attacks with strategic economic disruption, reshaping the dynamics of the Russia‑Ukraine war and its broader geopolitical reverberations.

The global oil trade is facing a chokepoint crisis, with Libya's oil disputes mirroring the situation in the Hormuz Strait. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for oil transportation, was briefly closed after US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, causing Brent crude oil prices to soar to nearly $120 a barrel.Libya, with its strategically located oil terminals on the northeastern coast, has become a crucial player in the global oil trade. The country's light, sweet grades of oil are particularly valuable to European refiners. However, Libya's political instability and factional oil deals are threatening to disrupt oil supplies, with Europe's energy security hanging in the balance.The Libyan National Army (LNA), led by Khalifa Haftar, controls the territory where Libya's oil is located, while the Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli signs oil contracts. This has led to a situation where Tripoli may sign oil contracts, but Haftar decides whether oil actually flows. The Arkenu agreement, a private oil company linked to the Haftar family, was recently terminated due to corruption allegations, leaving the future of Libya's oil supplies uncertain.The US is attempting to broker new talks between Tripoli and Haftar's camp, but a deal is not yet certain. Meanwhile, European energy security is at risk, with the Mediterranean Sea becoming a battleground for proxy wars between Russia and Ukraine. The sabotage of oil infrastructure and attacks on tankers are exacerbating the situation, highlighting the need for a stable and secure oil supply to Europe.

US President Donald Trump has issued a stern warning to Iran, stating that the Tuesday deadline for Tehran to agree to free passage through the Strait of Hormuz is final. Failure to comply will result in US strikes on Iranian infrastructure, he emphasized.On Monday, Trump described an Iranian proposal aimed at ending the conflict as 'a significant step' but insufficient to avert US action. The proposal, which includes 10 clauses such as an end to conflicts in the region, a protocol for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of sanctions, and reconstruction, was conveyed to the US via intermediaries.The Iranian proposal was put forward after Pakistan suggested a 45-day ceasefire, which Iran reportedly rejected, seeking a permanent end to hostilities instead. Iran's diplomatic mission head in Cairo, Mojtaba Ferdousi Pour, stressed that Tehran would only accept an end to the war with guarantees that it wouldn't be attacked again.The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway through which about 20% of the world's oil supplies pass, has been a focal point of the conflict. Trump's threat to destroy Iranian infrastructure unless the strait is reopened has caused oil prices to surge and shaken the global economy.Earlier on Monday, Israel struck a key petrochemical plant in Iran's South Pars gas field, killing two commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Israel claimed responsibility for the strike, which appeared separate from Trump's threats.The White House confirmed that a ceasefire proposal was under consideration but stated that Trump had 'not signed off' on it. The conflict, sparked by Israeli and US attacks on Iran on February 28, has seen Iran fire missiles at targets across the Middle East.Trump has been vocal about his stance, suggesting that Iran's leaders are 'animals' who have killed tens of thousands of protesters and expressing that he is 'highly unlikely' to postpone the deadline. When asked about concerns that attacks on infrastructure could be classified as war crimes, Trump responded that he is 'not worried about it,' emphasizing that allowing Iran to have a nuclear weapon would be a greater war crime.