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For the second consecutive year, US Vice President JD Vance has emerged as the leading candidate in the straw poll at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), a prominent right-wing gathering in the United States. The poll, which is not necessarily an accurate predictor of the Republican nominee, saw Vance secure 53 percent of the votes from nearly 1,600 attendees. This significant lead highlights Vance's strong support within the conservative base. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, another senior official under President Donald Trump, showed a notable improvement from last year's poll, where he tied for fourth place. Rubio garnered 35 percent of the vote, indicating a rising popularity among CPAC attendees. The straw poll results were announced on stage at the conference, which took place over four days and featured speakers such as Senator Ted Cruz, Iranian opposition leader Reza Pahlavi, and Eduardo and Flavio Bolsonaro, sons of Brazil's former president Jair Bolsonaro. CPAC's annual conference tends to attract attendees from the political right, and this year's event was no exception. The poll results come at a critical time for the Republican Party, with less than eight months until the midterm elections in the US. The party is hoping to defend its congressional majorities amid challenges such as the ongoing war in Iran and rising gas prices. Vance, a veteran and former single-term senator from Ohio, is seen as representing a more isolationist branch of Trump's 'Make America Great Again' (MAGA) base. He has been critical of US involvement in foreign conflicts but has defended Trump's decision to join Israel in joint strikes on Iran. Rubio, on the other hand, has a longer political resume and is viewed as more hawkish towards regime change, particularly in Cuba. Both Vance and Rubio had previously criticized Trump before joining his administration. While the CPAC straw poll has historically shown a realignment in the Republican Party around Trump's politics, it is not always an accurate predictor of future election outcomes. The party's consolidation around Trump's agenda has led to the marginalization of moderate and critical voices.

Donald Trump has indicated a shift in his administration's stance on oil shipments to Cuba, stating that he has 'no problem' with countries sending oil to the island, whether it's Russia or not. This development comes as a Russian oil tanker, under US sanctions, was set to arrive in the Caribbean island. The Russian tanker, Anatoly Kolodkin, carrying 730,000 barrels of crude, could soon discharge at Cuba's Matanzas port. This shipment would provide significant relief to Cuba, which has not received any oil imports for three months, leading to strict rationing of gasoline and exacerbating an energy crisis that has resulted in multiple power outages across the island. Cuba lost its main regional ally and oil supplier in January when US forces captured Venezuela's president, Nicolás Maduro. Trump subsequently threatened to impose tariffs on any country sending oil to Cuba and has mused about 'taking' the island. The US oil blockade has forced Cuba to impose emergency measures to conserve fuel, including strict rationing of gasoline. Fuel prices have soared, public transport has dwindled, and some airlines have suspended flights to Cuba, hitting the country's fragile economy. Jorge Pinon, an expert on Cuba's energy sector at the University of Texas at Austin, noted that once the Russian tanker enters Cuban waters, it 'is almost impossible for the US government to stop it.' The Russian shipment could be converted into 250,000 barrels of diesel, enough to cover the country's demand for about 12.5 days, according to Pinon.

Pakistan's attempts to facilitate peace talks between Iran and the US are encountering substantial obstacles. The intensification of Israeli bombing campaigns on civilian targets in Iran and an expanding US military presence in the Gulf region are casting a shadow over these efforts.Pakistan, maintaining relative neutrality with good relations with both Iran and the US, had hoped to provide a venue for negotiations. However, the conflict is widening, trust is scarce, and the stated positions of Tehran and Washington are far apart. Pakistani officials believe Israel's actions pose a significant risk to any potential talks, particularly given recent attacks on civilian nuclear sites and steel plants.Iran's core concerns include ensuring an end to the war and preventing future attacks by the US and Israel. Former Pakistani ambassador to the US, Maleeha Lodhi, expressed skepticism about US President Donald Trump's reliability, citing his unpredictable nature.Despite these challenges, Pakistan continues its diplomatic efforts. The country's prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, has been in communication with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, and foreign ministers from Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan are set to hold talks in Islamabad to discuss ending the conflict.The situation remains complex, with US troop buildup suggesting that peace talks may not align with US plans. Iran has expressed distrust towards previous US interlocutors, but there is consideration for US Vice-President JD Vance to represent the US in talks, an idea supported by Iran.

The ongoing conflict in Iran has caused significant turmoil in the global oil markets, with Brent crude oil prices climbing 51% since the start of March, according to LSEG data. This surge has put Brent crude on track for its biggest monthly gain on record, surpassing the previous record of 46% set in September 1990 during the first Gulf War.On Friday, Brent crude closed at $112.57 a barrel, up from $72.48 a barrel on February 27, the day before the US-Israeli war on Iran began. The price of Brent crude traded as high as $119.50 a barrel during March, its highest level since June 2022, after Iran largely closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for a fifth of global oil and gas.Despite a coordinated release of 400m barrels of oil from emergency reserves announced on March 11, oil prices continued to climb throughout the month. Analysts at BloombergNEF estimate that 9m barrels of oil per day have been knocked off global oil supply due to the Middle East conflict.The conflict has also had a ripple effect on other assets, with gold prices falling by almost 15% since the start of March, on track for its worst month since 2008. The spot price of gold has been under pressure from the sale of about $3bn of bullion by the Turkish Central Bank last week, which cut its reserves by almost 50 tonnes to 772 tonnes to fund efforts to stabilize the Turkish lira.The Dow Jones industrial average has also been impacted, entering a correction at the end of last week, more than 10% below its record high. Stocks fell despite US President Donald Trump's latest extension on planned strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure, as investors anticipated prolonged disruption to oil from the Gulf.“Markets appear to be placing less weight on White House jawboning and focusing more on the underlying supply risks,” said Fawad Razaqzada, an analyst at City Index. Britain's stock market also had a poor month, with the FTSE 100 index falling more than 8% – on track for its worst month since March 2020, when Covid-19 rocked financial markets.

Véron Mosengo-Omba, the general secretary of the Confederation of African Football (Caf), has resigned after repeated calls for his removal and at a turbulent time for African football. His departure comes amid a crisis of confidence in the organisation's leadership, largely due to the decision to strip Senegal of the Africa Cup of Nations (Afcon) title and allegations of corruption.Mosengo-Omba, 66, said he was retiring but his exit follows a period of intense criticism of his tenure, including accusations of creating a toxic workplace culture at Caf. An investigation into staff complaints had previously cleared him of wrongdoing. He is of Congolese origin but a Swiss citizen and a former Fifa employee.In a statement, Mosengo-Omba said: 'After over 30 years of an international professional career dedicated to promoting an ideal form of football that brings people together, educates, and creates opportunities for hope, I have decided to step down from my position as secretary general of Caf to devote myself to more personal projects.'He expressed gratitude to Caf's president, Dr Patrice Motsepe, and his teams, and hoped that the progress made during his tenure would 'last and be sustained'. Mosengo-Omba is expected to run for the post of president of the Democratic Republic of Congo's football federation.The controversy surrounding Caf's leadership has led to Senegal's government calling for an international investigation into the organisation. Caf's competitions director, Samson Adamu, will take over as acting general secretary.Earlier this month, Motsepe admitted that Caf was struggling with questions over its integrity. The organisation is set to expand the Africa Cup of Nations to 28 teams from 24, with plans to introduce a Nations League annually from 2029.

The possibility of US ground troops being sent into combat on Iranian soil is growing, driven by President Trump's desire to avoid being personally and politically humiliated in a war he started, mismanaged, and cannot end. Such a self-serving escalation could prove catastrophic for Trump and the American people, given the history of US military interventions in the region.Trump insists that the war is all but won, Iran is suing for peace, and talks are making good progress. However, in the real world, Iran is still fighting on all fronts, Israel is still bombing, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, and the Iran-allied Houthi militia in Yemen has joined the war, attacking Israel and potentially blocking Red Sea trade routes.The US and Iran have each issued maximalist demands, but there is no sign of actual negotiations. They are even further apart than they were before Trump, egged on by Benjamin Netanyahu, abandoned diplomacy last month. Sometime soon, Trump will be forced to confront the huge gap between what he wants and what's on offer. At that point, he could turn to the troop buildup in the Gulf and order ground attacks.It's incredible to think that after all the mortal agony and anguish of Iraq and Afghanistan, a US president is once again seriously contemplating boots on the ground in the Middle East. Trump's stumped, hoist by his own petard, stuck between a rock and a hard place, and up the creek without a paddle. The creek in question is, of course, the Strait of Hormuz.Trump is increasingly isolated and out on a limb. His wealthy Arab business cronies no longer trust him. US bases on their territory now resemble a liability, not a defence. When he demanded NATO's help, Europe said: we'll let you know. Likewise, Iran's ethnic Kurds are less than keen to die for a muppet. Support for the war among the US public and the Maga right, always weak, is a fast-vanishing mirage.If Trump were to order ground attacks – both he and Netanyahu have publicly discussed the possibility – the targets would most likely be the coastal batteries, missile defences, and concealed armed speedboat bases dotting the northern flank of the Hormuz strait. An attack on the Kharg oil export terminal further up the Gulf is also predicted.The inherent, inescapable military risks are daunting. Casualties would be inevitable. Even if operations went well in the short term, questions would immediately arise about potential escalation when Iran counterattacked, expansion of the operational area, and duration of the occupation.

The Iranian men's national football team made a poignant gesture before their friendly match against Nigeria in Turkey, wearing black armbands and posing with pink and purple school bags with ribbons on them. This powerful display was a tribute to the victims of a devastating air strike on a primary school in Minab, Iran, which occurred on the first day of the Middle East war on February 28. The air strike killed at least 170 people, including students and teachers. The attack happened on the day the United States and Israel launched the war with attacks across Iran. Iran's foreign minister accused the US of a "calculated, phased assault" on the school. According to The New York Times, preliminary findings of a US military investigation indicate that a US Tomahawk cruise missile hit the school due to a targeting mistake. The US military had been bombing an adjacent Iranian base, of which the school building was formerly a part, using outdated data to set the target coordinates. US President Donald Trump initially suggested that Iran itself may have been responsible for the attack, despite the country not having Tomahawk missiles. The incident has added to the tensions between Iran and the US, with Iran qualifying for the World Cup finals this summer but asking for its matches to be moved from the US to Mexico due to concerns over player safety. In the friendly match, Iran lost 2-1 to Nigeria. The team's gesture was a powerful reminder of the human cost of conflict and the impact on innocent civilians, particularly children.

Senegal's national football team, the Lions of Teranga, showcased the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) trophy to a crowd of 70,000 at the Stade de France in Paris ahead of a friendly match against Peru. This display comes despite the controversy surrounding their initial 1-0 win in the final against Morocco in January, which was later overturned by CAF due to a mid-game walk-off by Senegalese players.The team's captain, Kalidou Koulibaly, and goalkeeper Edouard Mendy led the parade, taking the trophy to the stadium's presidential box where it was placed in front of Abdoulaye Fall, the president of the Senegalese Football Federation. The event was attended by thousands of Senegalese supporters, who were joined by Peruvian fans and even Bally Bagayoko, the newly elected mayor of Saint-Denis, who praised the team's unity and spirit.The controversy began when Senegal's players left the field in protest over a penalty awarded to Morocco, which was later missed. The match eventually ended 1-0 in Senegal's favor with a goal from Pape Gueye in extra time. Morocco appealed the result, and CAF's appeals panel awarded them a 3-0 win and the title. Senegal has since announced plans to appeal to CAF and the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS), a process that could take up to a year.The Senegalese government has also called for an independent international inquiry into CAF's decision, citing allegations of corruption. This development has added to the tension between Senegal and Morocco, with the two nations set to remain locked in a dispute over the AFCON title.Despite the controversy, the Senegalese team's display of the trophy was seen as a celebration of their on-field victory and a show of unity among the players, fans, and the community. The friendly match against Peru was the team's first since the AFCON final, and they are now preparing for the World Cup, where they will face France, Norway, and either Bolivia or Iraq.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has issued a stern warning to neighboring countries, urging them not to allow the US and Israel to use their territory to launch attacks against Iran. In a post on X, Pezeshkian emphasized that Iran does not initiate preemptive attacks but will strongly retaliate if its infrastructure or economic centers are targeted. “To the countries of the region: If you want development and security, don’t let our enemies run the war from your lands,” Pezeshkian stated. This message is part of a broader effort by Iran to prevent the escalation of the ongoing conflict with the US and Israel. The conflict began on February 28, when the US and Israel launched air strikes across Iran, resulting in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Since then, the situation has shown no signs of de-escalation, with Israel announcing daily strikes on Iran and Tehran continuing to target its arch-rival and countries hosting US military assets. In recent developments, several Gulf states have been targeted in attacks. In Kuwait, multiple drone attacks damaged the international airport's radar system, while in Abu Dhabi, strikes caused debris to fall near the Khalifa Economic Zone, injuring six people. Iran's military claimed to have struck a Ukrainian anti-drone system depot in Dubai, which it alleged supported US forces. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also urged regional countries to distance themselves from the US, reiterating Iran's stance that it will not tolerate the use of neighboring territories for hostile actions. The conflict has resulted in significant disruptions across the region, with at least 15 American soldiers wounded in an Iranian attack on a Saudi airbase on Friday. The situation remains volatile, with alarm sirens activated in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia's defense ministry reporting ballistic missile and drone attacks, all of which were allegedly shot down.