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Iraq is facing a balancing act as the US-Israeli war on Iran exposes deep divisions within the country. The conflict has highlighted the divisions between those who view the attacks on Iran as a means to end Tehran's longstanding influence over Iraqi politics and those who are loyal to the Islamic republic. The war has struck Iraq during a precarious power vacuum, following the stepping aside of caretaker leader Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, whose coalition won the largest share of seats in November's parliamentary elections. This power vacuum has exacerbated tensions, with factions from the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella body of Iran-backed armed groups, vowing to drag the US into a long war of attrition. The group has claimed responsibility for numerous drone and missile attacks on targets in Iraq and neighboring countries, including the US base in Erbil and the city's international airport. In response, unclaimed airstrikes attributed to US and Israeli forces have hit positions across the country, killing several commanders and fighters. Iraqi leaders are attempting to maintain a balancing act, denouncing the killing of Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei while rejecting attempts by Tehran to draw Iraq into the conflict. However, this balancing act is complicated by the fact that pro-Iran groups are also members of the Popular Mobilisation Units (PMU), a sprawling institution that operates with its own agenda. The conflict has significant implications for Iraq's stability and economy, with a looming financial disaster hanging over the country due to the crisis over the strait of Hormuz and the loss of oil revenue. The US pressure and threat of sanctions have forced some members of the pro-Iran Shia alliance in Iraq's parliament to distance themselves from more militant factions. The killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, has also had a profound impact on the Iraqi resistance factions, which have struggled to respond effectively to the recent war. The insider close to the pro-Iran factions noted that the killing of Nasrallah has affected the Iraqi resistance factions more than the killing of Khamenei, as Nasrallah had a direct appeal to many commanders.

Following US and Israeli strikes that killed senior Iranian figures, concerns have emerged about the power dynamics within Iran's leadership. The country's response to these actions and the implications for the region are significant.This episode of 'The Take' examines the key players in Iran's system, how decisions are made, and the potential impact of losing top figures on Iran's response to the ongoing conflict with the US and Israel.Key topics include:The structure of Iran's leadership and decision-making processesThe role of senior figures and their influence on policyThe potential consequences of their loss for Iran's stance on the US-Israel conflictThe analysis features insights from Ali Hashem, a senior Al Jazeera correspondent, providing a deeper understanding of the complexities at play.

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Secretary-General, Jassim al-Budaiwi, has urged the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to take immediate action to stop Iranian attacks on Gulf countries, which he described as a 'flagrant violation' of international law and the UN Charter.Speaking at the UNSC, al-Budaiwi called on the council to 'take all necessary measures' to bring an end to Iran's attacks on Gulf countries and to protect maritime corridors and guarantee uninterrupted maritime navigation through strategic waterways in the region.The GCC chief also emphasized the need for the six GCC states – Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates – to be included in any talks or deals with Iran 'to enhance regional security and prevent further escalation or repetition of such attacks in the future.'Iran has been carrying out daily missile and drone attacks across the Middle East, including in Arab Gulf nations, since the US and Israel launched a war against the country on February 28. These attacks have struck civilian sites, including critical energy facilities, and have effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key Gulf waterway through which about one-fifth of the world's oil and liquified natural gas supplies transit.The situation has sent global energy prices skyrocketing, and frustrations are growing across the Gulf as the US-Israeli war on Iran drags on. According to Al Jazeera's Zein Basravi, 85 percent of the projectiles fired by Iran have targeted Gulf countries, with the UAE being the hardest hit.

Former Iranian foreign minister Kamal Kharazi has been seriously wounded in an apparent assassination attempt that killed his wife, as US-Israeli strikes continue to pound Iran for a fifth week.Iranian media on Thursday reported that Kharazi's home in Tehran was targeted the previous day in an air strike. The official was hospitalised with serious injuries, according to newspapers Shargh, Etemad and Ham Mihan.“We have seen what looks like an assassination attempt against the former foreign minister, Kamal Kharazi … We don’t know why he’s been targeted. He has been gravely wounded, and his wife was killed,” said Al Jazeera’s Mohamed Vall, reporting from Tehran.Air strikes were reported on Thursday across Iran, including in Tehran, Isfahan and Shiraz. Four people were reported killed in Larestan, in southern Iran.Meanwhile, the spokesperson of the armed forces’ unified command said Tehran will press on with the Middle East war until the US and Israel face “permanent regret and surrender”, the semiofficial Tasnim news agency reported.Ebrahim Zolfaghari, spokesperson of the Khatam al-Anbiya central headquarters, said US and Israeli assessments of Iran’s military capabilities were “incomplete” and that Tehran would step up its military actions, with “more crushing, broader and more destructive” attacks in store for its adversaries.The threat followed comments by US President Donald Trump that Washington would hit Iran “extremely hard” within weeks, although Iran was “essentially decimated” and the US was on track to achieve its military objectives.More than 1,340 people have been killed in Iran since the US and Israel launched joint air strikes on February 28. At least 24 people have been killed in Israel, as well as 13 US soldiers in the region.

Oil prices experienced a significant surge, rising more than $5, after President Donald Trump stated that the United States would continue its military operations against Iran. This development has heightened investor concerns about potential sustained disruptions to global oil supplies.Brent crude futures saw a notable increase, rising $6.33, or 6.3%, to $107.49 per barrel early on Thursday. Similarly, US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up $5.28, or 5.3%, to $105.40 per barrel. These gains followed an earlier decline of more than $1 in both benchmarks prior to Trump's televised address to the nation.The recent escalation in tensions between the US and Iran has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, in retaliation for the US-Israeli attacks. This strategic move has disrupted approximately one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies, precipitating the world's most significant energy crisis in decades.Trump emphasized that the US military is nearing its objectives in the conflict, which he expects to conclude within two to three weeks. His remarks have contributed to increased uncertainty in financial markets.Asian stocks were severely impacted following Trump's speech. Most Southeast Asian countries, which heavily rely on oil imports, are particularly vulnerable to the sharp rise in oil prices triggered by the Middle East conflict. The MSCI gauge of EM Asia equities experienced a 2.3% decline, while regional currencies weakened by 0.2%.Notably, South Korea's main stock market, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), plummeted by 4.2% after initially gaining nearly 2%. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung urged parliament to promptly pass a 26.2 trillion won ($17.3bn) supplementary budget to bolster the economy during what he described as the worst energy security threat caused by the Middle East crisis.Other Asian markets also saw significant declines, with Singapore's main stock market, the Singapore Exchange (SGX), slipping 0.8%, and Malaysia's benchmark index falling 1%. Markets in Indonesia and Taiwan declined by about 1% and 1.4%, respectively. Stocks in China and Hong Kong also fell, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite index dropping 0.53% and China's blue-chip CSI300 Index losing 0.74%.

Kenya's tea industry is experiencing a severe crisis as a result of the escalating tensions between the United States and Israel against Iran. The conflict has significantly impacted the global economy, and Kenya's tea sector is no exception. The US-Israeli war on Iran has led to increased uncertainty and volatility in the global market, affecting Kenya's tea exports. As one of the world's largest tea producers, Kenya relies heavily on international trade for its tea. The crisis has raised concerns about the future of Kenya's tea industry, which is a significant contributor to the country's economy. The industry provides employment opportunities for thousands of Kenyans and generates substantial revenue for the government. The situation is being closely monitored by industry stakeholders and government officials, who are working to mitigate the effects of the crisis on the tea sector. Potential solutions and strategies are being explored to help Kenya's tea industry recover and stabilize in the face of this challenge.

The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil and gas shipping route blocked by Iran since the US-Israeli attacks began, is having ripple effects around the world. If the strait remains closed, transport blockages across the Middle East could cause significant shocks to food and medicine supplies in the UK.UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper is hosting a meeting with 35 other countries to discuss reopening the strait. Experts warn that a prolonged closure could lead to food price inflation doubling in England and medicine shortages due to disrupted supply chains.Impact on Food SuppliesProf Tim Lang from City St George's, University of London, warns that 'all bets are off' for food supplies if the crisis continues. Rising fossil fuel prices will impact food transportation and production, as fuel is used to transport food and produce fertilizers and other inputs.The farming sector is already facing problems, with dairy production hit due to delayed fertilizer purchases and salad vegetable and dairy producers facing disruptions. Iranian imports like pistachios and saffron are also affected.Impact on Medicine SuppliesWhile there's no hard evidence of medicine shortages yet, price increases are being seen, which can signal disruptions in the medicine supply chain. Iran does not manufacture many medicines but affects the sector through rising energy costs and transport links between major pharmaceutical-producing countries and the UK.David Weeks from Moody's notes that shortages are driven by delays in petrochemical precursors for active pharmaceutical ingredients. Medicine stockpiles in European countries, including the UK, can last up to six months, but long-term conflicts could lead to more severe shortages.

The global oil market is being significantly influenced by online prediction platforms such as Polymarket, with energy traders using data from these platforms to inform their multimillion-dollar trades. Market experts have noted that Polymarket's datafeeds are being used to create algorithms that impact trading in the global Brent crude futures market. The growing reliance on Polymarket has raised concerns that anonymous account holders may be using insider knowledge to place bets, potentially influencing pricing in the global oil market. One energy trader noted that Polymarket had become the best predictor of the oil market's direction since the US-Israel war with Iran triggered a global oil crisis. Ajay Parmar, head of oil trading at ICIS, stated that betting markets have a long history of strong prediction accuracy, and traders are increasingly turning to Polymarket for market indicators. Tim Skirrow, head of derivatives at Energy Aspects, also confirmed the adoption of prediction markets as a trading tool, noting that any data with alpha is considered in modern markets. The US investment bank Goldman Sachs has included analysis of prediction-market data in its oil market research, and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has launched a trading tool providing a data feed of Polymarket's prediction markets to help traders make informed decisions. However, not all commodity traders are convinced by Polymarket's track record in predicting market-moving events. One trading analyst noted that Polymarket has made bad calls during the crisis, and that hedge funds may be more interested in the platform than traditional traders.

Global markets were jolted on Thursday as oil prices skyrocketed and stocks sank following a televised address by Donald Trump, in which he vowed to take 'extremely hard' action against Iran in the coming weeks. This development has dashed investor hopes of a swift resolution to the conflict in the Middle East.Brent crude prices jumped by 8% to surpass $109 a barrel, reversing the previous day's decline when hopes of de-escalation had briefly pushed the international benchmark below $100 a barrel.Asian markets were particularly hard hit, with Japan's Nikkei index falling 2.4%, China's CSI 300 index dropping 1.36%, and South Korea's Kospi tumbling 4.8%. In Europe, Germany's Dax fell 2%, France's Cac 40 dropped 1.15%, and Italy's FTSE Mib was down 1.45%. The FTSE 100 in London initially opened 0.7% lower but later stabilized, buoyed by gains in fossil fuel companies BP and Shell, which rose 4.5% and 3.1% respectively.Government borrowing costs also increased, with the yield on 10-year UK gilts rising four basis points to 4.886% and the two-year UK bond yield rising six basis points to 4.36%, reflecting growing fears of inflation due to higher energy costs.Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, noted that investors are betting on the impact of delayed oil supply deliveries from the Gulf, given Trump's failure to provide guidance on a potential end to the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. 'Instead of 'no more war', we got 'no, more war!', Beauchamp said, highlighting the market's concerns about hundreds of millions of barrels of oil that may not be delivered soon.The US dollar gained 0.6% against a basket of major currencies as investors sought safe-haven assets, pushing the pound down by almost a cent to $1.321. The market turmoil is already affecting consumers, with the Bank of England warning that 1.3 million more homeowners may see their mortgage payments rise due to financial shocks from the Iran conflict.Additionally, data from the RAC showed that petrol and diesel prices jumped by a record amount in March, with the average price of a litre of unleaded petrol rising by 20p to 152.83p by the end of the month, surpassing the previous monthly record.