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The Munition Shortage The United States has enough munitions for any plausible scenario in the Iran war, but rebuilding its depleted inventories will “take years”, according to a new report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Replenishment Timeline Restoring pre-war stockpiles of four critical munitions heavily used by US forces during nearly 40 days of joint fighting with Israel against Iran would take at least two years – and in some cases more than three – the Washington-based think tank said on Wednesday. Land Attack Missile (TLAM) Terminal High Altitude Area Defences (THAAD) interceptors Patriot missiles SM-3 and SM-6 ship-based surface-to-air missiles The Data Analysis The report noted that while US officials publicly project confidence in weapons stockpiles, analysts have said that dwindling munition supplies may be shaping Washington’s calculations over whether to resume the war on Iran. The Impact Analysis “Campaigns against Iran and its proxies – and, for Patriot interceptors, aid to Ukraine – have made the problem more acute,” said the CSIS report. “Alongside replenishing its own stocks, the United States also has to fulfil orders from allies and partners.” The Prediction “Decisions on how to allocate new production have already created bilateral friction, and this friction will continue for the next few years as demand outpaces supply,” the report warned. The main problem is not funding but production time, limited manufacturing capacity and long procurement lead times, with CSIS noting that past procurement levels were relatively low for many systems, slowing replacement efforts despite recent increases in defence spending.

The Diplomatic Breakthrough in the GulfThe United States and Iran have reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding (MOU) to extend the ceasefire between the two nations for 60 days and commence negotiations for a permanent resolution to the conflict, according to officials. This framework, first reported by Axios and confirmed by the White House, represents a significant shift after weeks of stalled diplomacy and recent military skirmishes.The Framework of the Preliminary MOUThe agreement outlines specific terms for de-escalation, most notably regarding the Strait of Hormuz. The deal stipulates that vessel traffic will be "unrestricted" in the strategic waterway, and the US has agreed to lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports. However, the framework is not yet final; it requires the approval of President Donald Trump before implementation.Duration: 60-day extension of the current ceasefire.Status: Pending final approval from President Trump.Key Terms: Unrestricted vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the US naval blockade.Context: Follows sporadic attacks and threats of sanctions against Oman.Resolving the Strait of Hormuz StandoffThe resolution of the Hormuz crisis is a critical economic and strategic development. Iran has long claimed sovereignty over the strait, insisting it must be managed jointly with Oman. Conversely, the US has vehemently rejected any form of Iranian control, including tolling systems. The agreement to allow unrestricted traffic removes a major source of geopolitical tension that threatened to disrupt global energy supplies.Beyond the Waterway: The Nuclear and Regional Sticking PointsWhile the Hormuz issue appears resolved, other complex challenges remain. The MOU reportedly requires Iran to commit to not pursuing a nuclear weapon, though Tehran has reiterated this stance publicly. The core disagreement lies in the US demand to dismantle Iran's entire nuclear program versus Iran's insistence on its right to enrich uranium domestically under the NPT.Furthermore, the broader regional conflict involving Hezbollah and Israel in Lebanon complicates the peace process. Iran has insisted that any truce must include Lebanon, where Israel has intensified attacks and issued displacement orders. The US has previously stated that Lebanon was not part of the April truce, creating a potential fracture in the diplomatic path forward.The 60-Day Countdown: What Comes Next?The next 60 days will be a critical test for regional stability. If President Trump approves the MOU, it establishes a clear timeline for negotiations. However, the success of this extension depends on resolving the lingering issues of US sanctions, Iran's missile production, and the ongoing war in Lebanon. Failure to address these points could lead to the unraveling of the truce and renewed hostilities.

North American Nations Coordinate Ebola Response for World Cup The United States, Mexico, and Canada have announced aligned public health travel measures for people coming from African regions at greatest risk from Ebola as they prepare to host the World Cup next month. In a joint statement, the three nations emphasized that "the health and safety of every person in the region remains our highest priority as we welcome the world to North America." Coordinated Travel Restrictions Implemented The three neighboring countries have established various containment measures to prevent the spread of Ebola across their borders. The United States initially banned noncitizens who had traveled to the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Uganda, or South Sudan in recent weeks from entering the country. This ban was subsequently extended by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to include green card holders who have been in those countries within the previous 21 days. Canada has implemented a 90-day entry ban for residents from the DRC, Uganda, and South Sudan. Additionally, Canadian citizens, permanent residents, and other foreign nationals who have been in affected areas without symptoms must undergo a 21-day quarantine period beginning Saturday. Mexico's Health Secretary David Kershenovich announced enhanced Ebola screening measures at airports, urging the public to avoid travel to the DRC and requiring arrivals from the country to observe a 21-day quarantine. WHO Declaration Triggers Global Response The World Health Organization declared an Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo a public health emergency of international concern on May 17, warning of a high risk that the virus could spread to neighboring countries. This declaration has prompted governments worldwide to implement travel-related containment measures. The coordinated response by North American nations reflects the growing concern about potential transmission during the upcoming World Cup, which will bring together visitors from around the world. Impact on International Travel and Major Events These measures represent one of the most significant coordinated public health responses in recent years, affecting international travel patterns and potentially impacting the experience of fans and participants attending the World Cup. The restrictions may create challenges for travelers from affected regions and require additional resources for health screening at entry points across North America. The joint approach by the three host countries demonstrates a recognition that public health threats require unified responses, particularly when hosting international events that bring together people from diverse geographic locations. Future Outlook for Ebola Containment As the World Cup approaches, health officials will likely continue monitoring the Ebola situation closely, potentially adjusting restrictions based on the evolving outbreak status. The coordinated measures may set a precedent for how nations collaborate on public health responses during international events, particularly in an era of increasing global connectivity and potential disease spread. Success in containing this outbreak will depend not only on travel restrictions but also on effective public health measures within affected regions and continued international cooperation on disease surveillance and response.

The LeadThe United States has escalated its threats against Oman, warning that it would "aggressively" impose sanctions if the Gulf ally helps Iran establish a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz. This intensifies President Donald Trump's recent threats against Oman, including a warning to "blow them up" if they don't comply with US demands regarding the strategic waterway.US Treasury's Aggressive StanceUS Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Thursday that Washington will "not tolerate" either country imposing fees on commercial ships in the strategic waterway. "Oman, in particular, should know that the US Treasury will aggressively target any actors involved — directly or indirectly — in facilitating tolls for the Strait and any willing partners will be penalized," Bessent said in a social media post."All nations should reject outright any efforts by Iran to disrupt the free flow of commerce. Tehran's days of terrorizing the region and the world are over."Global Energy Security at RiskAbout 20 percent of the world's oil flowed through Hormuz before the conflict, making the Iranian blockade a major strain on global energy supplies. The closure has sent oil prices soaring and threatens economic stability worldwide. The strait's critical importance to global energy markets makes any disruption a matter of international concern.Regional Power Dynamics ShiftThe statement comes less than 24 hours after President Trump threatened to bomb Oman, a key US ally known for its neutrality and mediation efforts in regional crises. This unprecedented threat against a close security and economic partner signals a significant shift in US foreign policy in the Middle East.While Iran has suggested joint Iranian-Omani management of the Hormuz Strait, Oman has not explicitly stated it is seeking control over the waterway, parts of which flow through its territory.Future Outlook for Hormuz StraitThe US and Iran have been indirectly negotiating to reach an agreement for a comprehensive end to the war, with control over the Hormuz Strait emerging as a major point of disagreement. Trump has stressed that the strait must remain a free passageway for international commerce.Ali Bagheri Kani, deputy secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, countered that Tehran will not allow Hormuz to be a source of insecurity for the country, stating that "the powers that have used this passage against Iran's security must be held accountable." The standoff continues as both nations dig in on their positions regarding control of this vital waterway.

Visa has disclosed an undisclosed investment in AI coding platform Replit, aiming to embed its payment suite directly into the developer environment so that both developers and AI agents can accept payments without leaving the platform. Strategic Investment and Joint Exploration of AI‑Powered Payments The two companies are testing how Visa Intelligent Commerce and the Trusted Agent Protocol can be woven into Replit’s workflow. More than 1,000 Visa employees already use Replit for prototyping, and the collaboration remains in an exploratory stage with no formal product announcements. Valuation Surge and Funding Milestones Highlight Replit’s Growth September 2025: Replit reached a $3 billion valuation. March 2026: Raised $400 million in a Series D led by Georgian Partners, pushing valuation to $9 billion. Enterprise self‑serve contracts now allow deals up to $200,000 without sales interaction. Customer churn is described as "very, very low" with net retention hitting 300 % in some cases. Implications for the Emerging Agentic Payments Ecosystem The move underscores a broader race to build infrastructure for "agentic payments," where AI agents transact on behalf of users. Competitors such as Robinhood (agent‑driven trading) and Google (shopping agents) are pursuing similar capabilities, suggesting the market will soon demand secure, verifiable AI‑mediated transactions. Future Trajectory: From Prototype to Mainstream Agentic Commerce If the exploratory projects mature, Replit could become a one‑stop shop for developers to build, host, and monetize AI agents, accelerating adoption of Visa’s Trusted Agent Protocol. Analysts anticipate that as enterprise adoption grows and churn remains low, the partnership may evolve into a commercial product suite within the next 12‑18 months, positioning Visa and Replit at the forefront of the next wave of AI‑driven commerce.

A former senior CIA official, David Rush, was taken into custody on May 19 after a joint CIA‑FBI operation uncovered a cache of 303 gold bars valued at over $40 million, along with $2 million in cash and luxury watches. The alleged theft, spanning from 2009 to 2026, has ignited scrutiny of the agency’s internal oversight and the use of gold in covert government finance.Details of the Alleged Embezzlement and the Gold Bar CacheRush, a former senior executive‑service level employee with top‑secret clearance, is accused of misappropriating government assets for personal gain.The FBI affidavit states he claimed military leave and education credentials that were later proven false.From November 2025 to March 2026, he allegedly requested “significant quantity of foreign currency and tens of millions of dollars in gold bars for work‑related expenses.”Searches on May 18 revealed 303 gold bars (≈1 kg each), $2 million in U.S. currency, and 35 luxury watches, many Rolexes.Financial Scale: Valuation of Gold, Cash, and Luxury Watches303 gold bars – estimated market value > $40 million.$2 million in U.S. cash recovered.35 high‑end watches, primarily Rolex, estimated at several hundred thousand dollars.Potential additional undisclosed assets, given the “significant quantity” of foreign currency mentioned in the affidavit.Implications for CIA Oversight and Government Asset ControlsThe case highlights gaps in the CIA’s internal audit mechanisms, especially regarding high‑value commodity allocations for “work‑related expenses.” It also revives longstanding speculation about the agency’s use of gold as a covert funding tool, a practice documented in historical accounts such as Gold Warriors. If proven, the misuse could erode public trust and prompt congressional hearings on asset tracking and clearance protocols.What Comes Next: Legal Proceedings and Policy ReformsRush remains detained pending a detention hearing scheduled for Friday in Alexandria, Virginia.Federal prosecutors are likely to pursue charges of theft of government property, fraud, and false statements.Expect a review by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) to tighten controls on commodity disbursements.Congress may introduce legislation mandating stricter reporting and independent audits of any gold or foreign‑currency transactions within intelligence agencies.

The LeadUnited States President Donald Trump has threatened longtime ally Oman with military force if it gets involved in the dispute over shipping access to the Strait of Hormuz, as Washington's war on Iran once again risks engulfing the Middle East. Trump's threat to "blow up" Oman came as Muscat reportedly held talks with Iran about overseeing passage through the strategic waterway that handles more than 20 percent of the world's global oil traffic.Trump's Unprecedented Threat Against a Key Ally"Nobody is going to control it," Trump said of the strait during a cabinet meeting in Washington. "It's international waters, and Oman will behave just like everybody else, or we will have to blow them up." This direct threat against a country with which Washington has had relations for more than 200 years has sent shockwaves across the region and drawn international criticism.While Hormuz is an international strait, most of it is located solely in Iranian and Omani territorial waters – not international waters – with parts of its outlying areas reaching United Arab Emirates (UAE) territorial waters. This geographical reality complicates Trump's assertion that the waterway is purely international.The Strategic Importance of the Strait of HormuzAs the only route for Gulf oil producers to ship exports to the open ocean, the strait has served as a free international maritime route for decades. Following the US-Israeli joint attacks on Iran on February 28, however, Tehran closed the waterway and began to assert sovereignty over it, including charging tolls of as much as $2m per ship at times.Under international maritime law, countries are not permitted to charge tolls to shipping passing through natural straits such as Hormuz, even where they are not in international waters. Countries can, however, provide services to shippers, such as insurance, maintenance and docking assistance.Regional Implications of Trump's ThreatShortly before Trump's comment, Iran's state television reported that Iran and the United States were close to agreeing on a memorandum of understanding (MOU) under which Tehran and Muscat would jointly control the strait. The proposal designates payments for passing vessels, framed as "fees for services" rather than "tolls."While the Trump administration has called the claims of such an MoU "a complete fabrication," analysts say his threat suggests that an understanding between Iran and Oman is precisely what the US president is trying to avoid."What Washington wants to prevent is the normalisation of Iranian control over Hormuz, dressed in administrative and legal clothing and given Arab cover by a US ally," Muhanad Seloom, non-resident senior fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, told Al Jazeera.International Reaction and Legal ConcernsCritics called the threat reckless. Raed Jarrar, the advocacy director at the US-based rights group DAWN, likened the US president's comments to those of a "mafia boss.""The UN Charter prohibits the threat of force against any state, and that prohibition binds the United States exactly as it binds everyone else," Jarrar told Al Jazeera. "Threatening to 'blow up' an Arab country because its waters happen to sit along an oil route Washington wants reopened is the same lawless logic that produced this war in February."Samir Puri, a visiting lecturer in war studies at King's College in London, said Trump's threat to Oman was "really surprising" and warned that it would "send shockwaves across the region."Oman's Diplomatic Role in the US-Iran ConflictOman has played a unique role in the region as a mediator between the US and Iran. Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi was a key mediator in US-Iran nuclear talks before the war on Iran began. Just before the US-Israeli joint attack on Tehran in February, Albusaidi had been meeting US officials, including Vice President JD Vance, to facilitate negotiations about the future of Tehran's nuclear programme.Unlike other US allies in the Gulf, such as Qatar, Bahrain and the UAE, Oman does not host US forces. It was nevertheless dragged into the conflict when Iran launched attacks on US military assets and energy infrastructure across the Gulf region in the early days of the war.Future Outlook for the RegionSeloom, from the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, said Oman is "one Gulf state that is simultaneously a US security partner and Iran's most trusted Arab interlocutor.""In peacetime, that ambiguity is an asset. In wartime, it becomes a liability, which is precisely the inversion now playing out," he told Al Jazeera.The analyst argued that joint Iran-Oman control over Hormuz was "more posture than probability." "Oman's real interest is not co-owning Iran's blockade; it is brokering the strait's reopening," he said.Still, according to Seloom, the prospect of Iran and Oman jointly shaping the future of the Strait of Hormuz alarms the US president for three reasons: "It would turn Iran's grip on the chokepoint into a permanent post-war fact rather than a temporary act of war; it would set a precedent that littoral states can metre and monetise an international waterway, eroding the freedom-of-navigation principle the United States underwrites worldwide; and it would hand Tehran a strategic win that outlasts any ceasefire."

The Economic Dilemma Facing Jamaica's Energy Future Jamaica stands at a critical juncture in its energy policy, with preliminary tests off the south coast suggesting the presence of crude oil in the Walton-Morant basin. This potential discovery comes at a time when the island is grappling with the dual pressures of post-pandemic recovery and the escalating costs of climate adaptation. Testing the Waters in the Walton-Morant Basin United Oil & Gas, a UK-based company, holds the exclusive exploration license for the 22,400sq km block. Recent seabed sampling has identified hydrocarbons, a development that energy minister Daryl Vaz has described as "very positive." However, experts caution that even with confirmation, commercial production is unlikely until the mid-2030s. Balancing the Books: Fuel Imports vs. Climate Costs The financial calculus behind this potential shift is stark. Jamaica currently imports all its fuel, a cost that fluctuates between $1.5bn and $2bn annually. While the island generated $4.3bn from tourism in 2024, the economic strain is compounded by the $12bn bill for damage caused by Hurricane Melissa. This financial vulnerability is driving the government's cautious optimism toward oil exploration. The Regional Race for Fossil Fuels Jamaica is not alone in this pursuit. The Caribbean and Latin America are witnessing a resurgence in fossil fuel interest, following Brazil's deep-water discoveries in the 2000s. The region is now joined by Suriname and Guyana as emerging producers, creating a competitive landscape where nations are weighing immediate economic relief against long-term environmental stability. A Green Pledge at Odds with Survival? The environmental implications are significant. Theresa Rodriguez-Moodie of the Jamaica Environment Trust argues that pursuing oil exploration contradicts the island's moral standing to demand climate assistance. "If we want to have any kind of moral high ground... we cannot be considering expanding the fossil fuel industry," she stated. As Jamaica navigates this complex path, it faces the challenge of reconciling its Paris Agreement commitments with the immediate economic survival of its population.

A Surrealist Masterpiece Emerges from the Depths of Psychiatric ConfinementA recently discovered painting by the surrealist artist Leonora Carrington, made during her confinement in a Spanish psychiatric hospital during the second world war, will go on public display for the first time in London this summer. Known as Villa Pilar, the work was painted in 1940 while Carrington was a patient at sanatorium Morales in Santander, after fleeing Nazi-occupied France following the arrest of her partner, the German artist Max Ernst.The Unveiling of a Hidden Masterpiece from a Turbulent PeriodCarrington suffered a psychological breakdown in Madrid and was admitted to the institution, where she underwent traumatic psychiatric treatments that she later described in her memoir Down Below. But encouraged by her psychiatrist, Dr Luis Morales, Carrington sketched each day, and created two paintings, Down Below and Villa Pilar, which depict the psychiatric hospital as a symbolic underworld. Carrington described her "down below" period as an experience akin to "being dead."A Life Marked by Rebellion and Artistic InnovationBorn into a wealthy Lancashire family in 1917, Carrington rebelled early against the expectations placed on upper-class women. She studied at the Chelsea School of Art before meeting Ernst at a dinner party in London in 1937, when she was 20 and he was 46. The two began a relationship that scandalised their respective social circles and moved together to Saint-Martin-d'Ardèche in the south of France, where they lived and worked until the German invasion.She found kindred artistic spirits in renowned surrealists like André Breton, Salvador Dalí, and Man Ray, who, like her, were fascinated by dreams, the subconscious and the occult. When she eventually settled in Mexico in the 1940s, she became one of the country's most celebrated artists and part of an influential community of women creatives working outside the male-dominated European surrealist movement – alongside figures including the Spanish painter Remedios Varo and the photographer Kati Horna.Carrington was later embraced as a feminist icon, and she always resisted attempts to reduce her to her gender, once remarking: "I didn't have time to be anyone's muse ... I was too busy rebelling against my family and learning to be an artist." She died in Mexico City in 2011, aged 94.The Rediscovery and Symbolic Meaning of Villa PilarCarrington gave Villa Pilar to Dr Morales when she left the sanatorium, and it remained in his family for decades. It was only rediscovered during research for the exhibition by the Faro Santander team, who persuaded the Morales family to loan it publicly for the first time.Vanessa Boni, curator of the exhibition, said Carrington created the work as "a parting gift" to thank Morales for helping her recovery, despite the "brutal" treatments she endured, including cardiazol injections. "As we know from her memoir, it was really traumatic," she said. "Dr Morales kept the painting his entire life, and when he passed away, it was handed down to his daughter."The work depicts the hospital as being populated by hybrid human-animal figures moving through vivid green gardens – imagery that would become central to Carrington's later practice. "It speaks to ideas of inner transformation, metamorphosis and otherness," Boni said. "Both paintings are set in a verdant green landscape, including a green sky, which was a symbolic colour for her."A Transatlantic Exhibition JourneyVilla Pilar will join the exhibition Leonora Carrington – the Symptomatic Surreal at the Freud museum, where Sigmund Freud spent the final year of his life after escaping Nazi-occupied Vienna. To mark the unveiling, the exhibition has been extended until 10 August before travelling to Faro Santander, a new arts centre in the northern Spanish city, in September.Daniel Vega Pérez de Arlucea, director of Faro Santander, said: "This is not simply a matter of showcasing the work of one of the most important surrealist artists, but of recognising and revisiting a chapter of her life deeply rooted in this city."After leaving Santander, Carrington travelled through Lisbon and New York before settling in Mexico, where she became one of the leading figures of surrealism. In 2024, one of her paintings was auctioned for £22.5m, a record for a UK-born female artist.While in New York, Carrington gave her Santander sketchbooks to the surrealist collector Julien Levy, whose collection was sold at auction and dispersed into private collections in 2004. This exhibition marks the first attempts since then to bring the contents together for a major public display.