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Oil prices jumped back above $100 a barrel and global stocks fell after weekend talks between the US and Iran ended without an agreement and Donald Trump imposed a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The US president announced the blockade on Sunday, targeting Iranian vessels and ships that have paid a toll to Iran for passage through the strait, in an attempt to choke off the flow of Iranian oil.US Central Command said it would start at 10am ET (5.30pm in Iran and 3pm in the UK), blocking all Iranian Gulf ports and coastal areas, in effect seizing control of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. The news drove oil and gas prices sharply higher again, after the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran announced on Wednesday prompted a sharp fall in energy prices, and crude ended the week below the psychological $100 a barrel threshold.Brent crude rose by nearly 7% to $101.74 a barrel on Monday morning, while US crude is up more than 8% to $104.69 a barrel. Gas prices also increased, with the British wholesale gas contract for May soaring by 11.7% to 122.5p a therm. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase said last week they expected oil prices to stay high in the second quarter, above $100 a barrel, before easing in the second half of the year.Most Asian stock markets fell on Monday, with Japan’s Nikkei down 0.7% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index losing 1%, while Chinese stocks rose slightly. Sentiment was helped by Beijing’s announcement of a 10-initiative strategy aimed at deepening ties with Taiwan. European stocks also fell, led by airlines including Lufthansa, Wizz Air, easyJet and British Airways parent IAG. The FTSE 100 index in London lost 0.4%, dropping 45 points to 10,555. Germany’s Dax fell 1%, Italy’s FTSE MiB slipped 0.7% and Spain’s Ibex was down 1.1%. With oil and gas prices rising sharply higher, energy companies such as BP and Shell are rallying.Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at the broker Phillip Nova, said: “In today’s environment, every barrel of risk added to oil markets carries an inflation price tag for the global economy.” She added: “The market reaction underscores a simple but powerful reality: Hormuz risk is not theoretical; it is structural, and it is real.”Interest rate expectations have shifted again; investors now see an 84% chance of two rate increases from the Bank of England this year to tackle rising inflation, up from 60% on Friday. Before the Iran war, the central bank was expected to cut rates. The price of gold fell 0.4% to $4,730.75 an ounce as the blockade fuelled inflation concerns, prompting traders to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.

The ongoing US-Israel war on Iran has taken a critical turn with Donald Trump's announcement that the US Navy would start blockading the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic waterway is crucial for global oil shipments, and any disruption could have significant economic impacts. In response, Iran's Revolutionary Guard warned that approaching military vessels to the strait would be considered a violation of the ceasefire. This development has led to a surge in oil prices, with US crude oil rising 8% to $104.24 a barrel and Brent crude oil increasing 7% to $102.29. The blockade, set to begin on Monday morning, will be implemented by US Central Command (Centcom) and will affect all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports. This move is part of a broader strategy that may include resuming limited military strikes in Iran, according to reports. The situation has drawn international attention, with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese stating that his government has not been asked to participate in the blockade and is keen on continuing negotiations between the US and Iran. Meanwhile, Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf dismissed Trump's threats, asserting that they would have no effect on the Iranian nation.

International activists are preparing to set sail from northeastern Spain to the Gaza Strip in a massive 70-boat flotilla, aiming to break Israel's devastating naval blockade and deliver much-needed humanitarian aid.The initiative, dubbed the 'Global Resilience Flotilla,' boasts a significant increase in participation, with about 1,000 volunteers from 70 countries taking part in the effort. The vessels, departing from the port of Barcelona, are loaded with food, medicine, school bags, and stationery for Palestinian children.Organisers say the mission is being carried out in coordination with Palestinian civil society organisations, maritime security experts, and prominent international NGOs, including Greenpeace and Open Arms—a charity known for its Mediterranean rescue operations. The flotilla has also received increased backing from the Barcelona municipality.Pablo Castilla, a spokesperson for the flotilla, told reporters in Barcelona that the primary goal is to 'condemn international complicity in the genocide committed by Israel in Gaza, demand accountability, and open a humanitarian corridor by sea and land'.Castilla noted a declining international focus on Gaza due to the ongoing United States-Israel war on Iran and Israeli attacks on Lebanon. He warned that Israel is exploiting this geopolitical shift to tighten its siege, restrict aid, expand settlements, and accelerate the occupation of Palestinian territory.The Gaza Strip, under an Israeli blockade since 2007, has faced an unprecedented humanitarian and health crisis since Israel's genocidal war against Palestinians in Gaza, which began in October 2023 and has killed more than 72,000 Palestinians.The prolonged assault has also devastated infrastructure, including hospitals, and left approximately 1.5 million of the enclave's 2.4 million residents displaced and homeless, amid severe restrictions on fuel and medical supplies.Since 2010, all flotillas attempting to break the Gaza blockade have been intercepted or attacked by Israel in international waters.

Saudi Arabia has returned its East‑West oil pipeline to full operational capacity, enabling the transport of approximately 7 million barrels of crude per day after a series of attacks disrupted flow earlier this week. In a statement released on Sunday, the Ministry of Energy praised the swift repair work, noting that the turnaround demonstrates the high operational resilience and crisis‑management efficiency of Saudi Aramco and the broader national energy system. The ministry also confirmed that production at the Manifa oilfield—situated off Saudi Arabia’s eastern coast—has been restored to its full capacity of about 300,000 barrels per day (bpd). Efforts continue at the inland Khurais oilfield, which is still recovering from a loss of roughly 300,000 bpd. Earlier reports from the Saudi Press Agency indicated that attacks on a pumping station along the East‑West pipeline had cut daily output by 700,000 bpd. Simultaneous assaults on the Manifa and Khurais fields were said to have reduced combined capacity by 600,000 bpd. No party was identified as responsible for the attacks. The East‑West pipeline, linking the prolific Abqaiq field in the east to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, has become a vital conduit for international oil supplies, especially as Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has choked off about 20% of global oil shipments, driving up energy prices worldwide. Despite a fragile cease‑fire announced on Tuesday between the United States and Iran, maritime traffic through the strait remains severely limited. Data from S&P; Global show that only 22 vessels with active AIS transponders passed through the strait between Wednesday and Friday, a stark drop from the pre‑conflict average of 135 daily transits. Restoring the pipeline’s full capacity is expected to reinforce supply continuity for both domestic and international markets, providing a modest but meaningful cushion to the global economy as geopolitical tensions persist.

Three Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) successfully navigated the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, marking a rare movement of oil cargoes amid the fragile truce between the United States and Iran.The vessels – the Liberia‑flagged Serifos, and the China‑flagged Cospearl Lake and He Rong Hai – each can transport about 2 million barrels of crude, collectively representing a significant volume for a waterway that channels roughly 20% of the world’s oil and LNG shipments.According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) and analytics firm Kpler, the Serifos is chartered by Thailand’s state‑owned energy firm PTT. Loaded with Saudi and UAE crude in early March, it is slated to dock at Malaysia’s Malacca Port on April 21.The other two carriers, Cospearl Lake and He Rong Hai, are chartered by Unipec, the trading arm of Chinese energy giant Sinopec. Cospearl Lake, carrying Iraqi oil, is expected to reach China’s Zhoushan port on May 1, while the destination for He Rong Hai remains undisclosed.Earlier, a tanker named Ocean Thunder, chartered by a Petronas subsidiary, also transited the strait, underscoring a gradual, albeit limited, resumption of traffic.Despite these movements, hundreds of tankers remain stranded in the Gulf, awaiting clearance during the two‑week ceasefire. Their prolonged idling continues to pressure global energy prices, which have surged since Iran’s blockade began in late February.In addition to the loaded vessels, three empty tankers – Mombasa B, Agios Fanourios I, and Shalamar – were observed heading into the strait on Sunday to load fresh cargoes. Notably, Agios Fanourios I signaled a route to Iraq’s Basrah fields to pick up crude destined for Vietnam.Management firms such as Eastern Mediterranean Maritime, Cmb.Tech NV, and Pakistan National Shipping have not provided comments on the recent transits.While the passage of these three supertankers offers a modest relief to the global oil supply chain, the overall situation remains precarious. The continuation of the ceasefire and the resolution of Iran’s blockade will be critical determinants of oil market stability in the weeks ahead.

Iran’s attempt to impose tolls on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz has been labeled illegal by Arsenio Domínguez, the head of the United Nations’ International Maritime Organization (IMO). In an interview with Al Jazeera, Domínguez stressed that such charges would set a dangerous precedent for global shipping. Tehran has asserted its right to levy fees even after the conflict ends, while U.S. President Donald Trump floated the idea of a joint U.S.-Iran venture to collect the payments. Both proposals clash with established maritime conventions. "Countries do not have the right to introduce tools or payments or charges on these straits," Domínguez said, adding that any toll system would be contrary to international law and could cripple the free flow of trade. The remarks came as marathon cease‑fire negotiations between U.S. and Iranian officials in Pakistan concluded without an agreement. U.S. Vice President JD Vance noted that Tehran rejected Washington’s terms, which included a commitment to forgo nuclear weapons development, prompting the American delegation to depart Islamabad after presenting its "final and best offer." Iran’s state‑run Press TV blamed the stalemate on what it called the United States' "excessive demands," citing the toll issue and the nuclear programme as major points of contention. Despite a two‑week cease‑fire announced earlier in the week, maritime traffic remains severely limited. Only 22 vessels with active AIS signals exited the strait between the truce’s start and Friday, a stark drop from the pre‑conflict average of about 135 daily transits, according to S&P Global. The bottleneck is throttling oil and natural‑gas exports from the Gulf. The U.S. military reported that two warships had navigated the waterway to clear Iranian mines, a move Iran denied. President Trump later insisted the strait would reopen "fairly soon," with or without Tehran’s cooperation. Domínguez emphasized that ending the hostilities is the fundamental solution to restoring safe passage. He warned that any resumption of traffic must be accompanied by thorough de‑mining and safety checks to protect both vessels and crews. He also dismissed calls for new legal frameworks, noting that the 1968 traffic‑separation agreement between Iran and Oman—which splits the strait into north‑ and south‑bound lanes—had functioned effectively before the war and does not require revision. Humanitarian concerns feature prominently in Domínguez’s statements. He highlighted that roughly 20,000 seafarers are stranded in the Gulf due to the blockade, warning that prolonged isolation would not only harm these workers but also have a negative ripple effect on the global economy.

US Vice‑President JD Vance addressed a podium in Pakistan, confirming that after a marathon 21‑hour negotiation no settlement had been secured to end the conflict with Iran. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump was in Miami watching a mixed‑martial‑arts fight, a stark contrast that underscored the administration’s focus on spectacle over substantive diplomacy. The breakdown was not accidental. Washington insists Iran must relinquish any capacity to develop a nuclear weapon, whereas Tehran maintains its right to a civilian nuclear programme and rejects the notion of a weapons agenda. The US “final and best offer” demanded a complete surrender of that capability, a condition more akin to imposing victory than fostering negotiation. Compounding the impasse, the United States sought unrestricted navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy supplies. Iran, however, pressed for transit fees, lifted sanctions, unfrozen assets, reparations, and a broader regional cease‑fire. The divergent demands meant that a single round of talks could not bridge the gap, resulting in negotiations devoid of trust and a war without a clear resolution. Historical wisdom, echoed by Winston Churchill’s famous remark that "jaw‑jaw is better than war‑war", highlights the high cost of continued fighting. Ironically, the current US‑Iran dispute revolves around a nuclear programme that was once restrained by a deal the Trump administration later abrogated, and a maritime route that the same administration helped ignite by launching the conflict. The fragile cease‑fire’s survival now hinges not only on Washington and Tehran but also on Israel’s expanding offensive in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah, an operation that has drawn accusations of war crimes and threatens to widen the regional conflagration. Financial markets are unlikely to react positively to recent developments. American voters are already feeling the impact of surging fuel prices, and Trump’s consideration of a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could exacerbate the situation. Disrupting a route that carries roughly one‑fifth of global oil would push prices higher, with ripple effects far beyond the Gulf. The current cease‑fire is set to expire in just over a week. While diplomatic talks have not formally ended, a stalemate persists and the logic of escalation is gaining traction. Iran appears unlikely to concede, opting instead to test US resolve at sea. Seasonal heat may limit a full‑scale ground offensive for now, but the risk of a shift toward naval confrontations, airstrikes, and proxy warfare looms, offering no winners—only further loss.

Experts and policymakers are urging the creation of a regional agreement aimed at securing the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that serves as a critical conduit for a significant share of the world’s oil trade. The push for a coordinated diplomatic framework reflects growing concerns over potential disruptions that could arise from geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region. By fostering cooperation among neighboring states, the proposed pact seeks to mitigate risks to maritime traffic and protect the flow of energy supplies. Stability in the Strait of Hormuz is essential for global markets, as any interruption could trigger sharp spikes in oil prices and ripple through the world economy. A regional agreement would therefore not only enhance security for the nations bordering the strait but also contribute to broader economic resilience. While details of the proposed arrangement remain under discussion, the consensus underscores the need for a unified approach that balances national interests with the collective goal of maintaining uninterrupted maritime commerce.

US President Donald Trump has announced that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen 'fairly soon' with or without Iran's assistance, as the US and Iran prepare for peace talks in Pakistan. The strait, a critical maritime chokepoint, has been effectively blocked by Iran, disrupting approximately one-fifth of global oil and natural gas flows.Speaking to reporters, Trump said the US would 'open up the Gulf' and that other countries were ready to 'help out'. He emphasized that ensuring Iran does not possess nuclear weapons is the priority in any agreement, and the strait would open 'automatically' if a deal is reached.Despite a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, shipping in the strait remains at an effective standstill. Only two vessels passed through the strait on Friday, down from five the previous day. More than 600 vessels, including 325 tankers, are still stranded in the Gulf due to the blockage.US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf are set to lead negotiations in Islamabad aimed at securing a permanent end to the war. The US and Iran have offered conflicting messages on the agreed-upon terms for the negotiations, including the contents of a 10-point plan put forward by Tehran.