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Oil prices have reached their highest level in nearly two weeks, with Brent crude rising over 3% to $116 a barrel on Monday morning. The surge comes amid escalating tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran, with Iran accusing the US of preparing for a ground invasion.The conflict has disrupted about one-fifth of global oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) supplies, plunging the world into its biggest energy crisis in decades. Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a nearly 60% rise in oil prices since the start of the war.Analysts warn that oil prices are likely to keep rising unless maritime traffic returns to normal levels in the strait. US President Donald Trump has threatened to 'obliterate' Iran's energy infrastructure if Tehran does not relinquish its stranglehold on the waterway by a deadline of April 6.Greg Newman, CEO of Onyx Capital Group, said energy consumers are only beginning to feel the true fallout of the turmoil, with Brent expected to rise towards $120 and beyond. The scale of the disruption has yet to be fully appreciated, with physical premiums at their highest ever.

China's economy is heavily reliant on oil refining, particularly in Shandong province, where independent 'teapot' refineries play a crucial role. These small refineries, often operating on thin margins, have been vital in keeping China's economy stable amidst the global energy crisis. The crisis began with US-Israel strikes on Iran, causing chaos in the Middle East and prompting Tehran to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for oil and gas flows. However, Iranian oil has continued to flow to China, with imports reaching about 1.6 million barrels per day. China's teapot refineries are now facing significant challenges due to rising crude prices. Iranian light crude, which was previously $11 cheaper than Brent crude, now has a discount as low as $2 per barrel. This has reduced the refineries' profits, with some workers fearing salary cuts. The impact is being felt across the industry, with Luqing Petrochemical, one of Shandong's prominent teapots, allegedly sanctioned by the US for buying Iranian oil. The company has started pressuring employees to quit by cutting salaries and relocating them to difficult work sites. The economic shock is also affecting ordinary people in China, with the government intervening in the retail fuel market to reduce a planned increase in petrol and diesel prices. However, if prices continue to rise, some teapot refineries may go bust. The long-term threat to the industry is not just the war but also the rise of electric vehicles, according to Uncle Wang, a petrol station owner in Weifang. As China transitions to cleaner energy sources, the demand for oil is expected to decline, posing a significant challenge to the teapot refineries and the thousands of people they employ.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a stark warning that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will lead to higher prices and slower global growth, affecting countries worldwide. The Washington-based organisation emphasised that a rise in energy and food costs will harm economic growth this year and could leave lasting scars on the global economy.The IMF's analysis, published in a blogpost by its main department heads, including chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, noted that governments with high levels of borrowing will have limited access to funds to cushion the worst effects of the crisis. The organisation warned that all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth should the conflict continue to disrupt the supply of oil, gas, and fertiliser from the Gulf.While some countries, such as the US, may gain from higher fossil fuel prices as net exporters of oil and gas, the rise in bills for petrol, diesel, and food will harm living standards. Businesses are also forecast to come under pressure to raise prices, possibly forcing central banks to raise interest rates to combat inflation.The IMF highlighted that about a third of fertiliser production travels through the strait of Hormuz, which could push up prices. The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation projects that global prices could average 15% to 20% higher in the first half of 2026 if the crisis persists. Natural gas prices have more than doubled in the UK since last December to about £140 a therm, while a barrel of Brent crude that cost about $60 before the conflict hit more than $116 on Monday before falling back to $112.The IMF added that forecasts for sharp rises in the cost of gas and electricity in Europe next winter are forcing governments to consider higher subsidies and welfare payments to the worst-affected households. The organisation noted that countries such as Italy and the UK are especially exposed by their reliance on gas-fired power, while France and Spain are relatively protected by their greater nuclear and renewables capacity.

The UK government is considering plans to provide financial support to households hardest hit by the looming energy crisis, with a focus on targeting those who need it most. Energy bills are forecast to hit nearly £2,000 a year from July, prompting concerns about the impact on low-income households.Under one plan, extra cash could be injected into the crisis and resilience fund (CRF), a £1bn a year council-run scheme in England that provides preventative support to communities and assists people facing financial crises. The fund could be topped up to help cushion households identified by councils as facing particular hardship from higher energy bills.Chancellor Rachel Reeves has ruled out universal support and is under pressure from financial markets to limit the extent of the support to keep within budget spending limits. However, she has emphasized the need for targeted support, saying: "The progressive, universal approach that we are taking is the right one … £150 off everyone’s energy bills, but then targeted support for those who need it most."The government is also exploring other options, including expanding support to households that have high bills but do not currently qualify for benefits. This could involve allowing councils to dispense funds to households in need.Rising energy costs have been driven by the conflict in the Middle East, with Brent crude oil prices surging to over $116 a barrel. The global oil benchmark is on course for a record monthly rise of nearly 60%, exceeding gains made during the 1990 Gulf war.The UK's interest rate on 10-year debt has also hit its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, just over 5%, although rates eased to 4.95% by Monday. Government borrowing costs around the world have climbed since the US and Israel attacked Iran, as financial markets calculate that governments will be urged to borrow more heavily to cope with the war's aftershocks.

The price of oil has surged to $116 a barrel after Donald Trump's comments on seizing Iranian oil, sparking concerns over a potential escalation in the Middle East conflict. Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil, rose by 2% in early trading on Monday.Trump told the Financial Times that his 'favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran,' which led to a significant increase in oil prices and a drop in Asian stock markets. Japan's Nikkei fell by 3%, while the South Korean Kospi dropped 3.4%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index shed about 1%.The conflict in the Middle East has escalated with the arrival of 3,500 US troops and Houthi rebels in Yemen firing ballistic missiles at Israeli sites. This has led to concerns over a potential disruption in oil supplies, causing natural gas prices to increase in Europe.Analysts warn that if the conflict doesn't end quickly, crude could rise to $150 or even $200 per barrel, which could lead to a global recession. The UK's Keir Starmer is set to hold talks with bosses from Shell, BP, and Equinor to discuss emergency measures to contain the crisis.The war in the Middle East has driven Brent crude to its biggest monthly gain ever, up by 59% since the start of March. Industry figures have warned of potential temporary shortages at petrol pumps in the UK due to the conflict.

The ongoing conflict in Iran has caused significant turmoil in the global oil markets, with Brent crude oil prices climbing 51% since the start of March, according to LSEG data. This surge has put Brent crude on track for its biggest monthly gain on record, surpassing the previous record of 46% set in September 1990 during the first Gulf War.On Friday, Brent crude closed at $112.57 a barrel, up from $72.48 a barrel on February 27, the day before the US-Israeli war on Iran began. The price of Brent crude traded as high as $119.50 a barrel during March, its highest level since June 2022, after Iran largely closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for a fifth of global oil and gas.Despite a coordinated release of 400m barrels of oil from emergency reserves announced on March 11, oil prices continued to climb throughout the month. Analysts at BloombergNEF estimate that 9m barrels of oil per day have been knocked off global oil supply due to the Middle East conflict.The conflict has also had a ripple effect on other assets, with gold prices falling by almost 15% since the start of March, on track for its worst month since 2008. The spot price of gold has been under pressure from the sale of about $3bn of bullion by the Turkish Central Bank last week, which cut its reserves by almost 50 tonnes to 772 tonnes to fund efforts to stabilize the Turkish lira.The Dow Jones industrial average has also been impacted, entering a correction at the end of last week, more than 10% below its record high. Stocks fell despite US President Donald Trump's latest extension on planned strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure, as investors anticipated prolonged disruption to oil from the Gulf.“Markets appear to be placing less weight on White House jawboning and focusing more on the underlying supply risks,” said Fawad Razaqzada, an analyst at City Index. Britain's stock market also had a poor month, with the FTSE 100 index falling more than 8% – on track for its worst month since March 2020, when Covid-19 rocked financial markets.

The UK government's borrowing costs have risen above 5% amid an intensifying global bond market sell-off fueled by the Iran war. The yield – or interest rate – on 10-year debt hit its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, rising 13 basis points to 5.081%, as investors acted on concerns about the economic fallout from the conflict.Borrowing costs also rose for the US and eurozone governments, underscoring growing turbulence in the global financial system after Donald Trump's extension of a deadline for a peace deal failed to soothe jittery investors. Financial markets worldwide slumped on Friday, extending falls seen since the outbreak of the war, with losses in London and across major US and EU trading hubs. The price of Brent crude remained above $110 a barrel.Kathleen Brooks, the research director for the UK at the financial trading platform XTB, said: “Markets feel more panicky this week, and Friday’s price action suggests that investors are losing faith in Donald Trump’s ability to end this war and reach a deal with the Iranians.”Economists have warned that the Bank of England could be forced to take a tough approach to tackling inflation after losing some of its credibility by underestimating the leap in inflationary pressures in 2022. The increase in borrowing costs will add to the challenges facing Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, amid pressure on Labour to provide a package of financial support for households already reeling from a cost of living crisis.

The US stock market closed on Friday with a significant selloff, sending the Dow into correction territory and marking the fifth consecutive week of declines. The Dow fell 800 points, while the Nasdaq index dropped another 2% and the S&P; 500 closed 1.6% lower.Oil prices continued to rise, with Brent crude surging past $110 a barrel. Despite Donald Trump's announcement of extending a pause on Iranian energy strikes, markets remained on edge. Trump has suggested that oil prices and the stock market will stabilize once the conflict ends, but it's unclear if markets will believe him.Consumer sentiment in the US has also declined, with a 6% drop in March, according to a University of Michigan survey. This decline was observed across all age groups, political parties, and income levels. Inflation expectations rose from 3.4% to 3.8%, the largest one-month increase since last April.The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) revised its global GDP growth projections downward, citing the Iran conflict as a significant source of uncertainty. The report warned of higher global inflation due to the spike in energy prices and noted that the Middle East conflict would disproportionately affect the UK's economy.

The recent developments in the conflict between the US and Iran have left global markets reeling. President Donald Trump's threat to attack Iran's civilian power infrastructure led to a surge in oil prices, a plummet in stock futures, and a climb in bond yields. However, the president quickly walked back his statement, announcing that talks with Iran were going well. This move, dubbed 'Taco' (Trump Always Chickens Out), was first seen during the tariffs crisis last year. The immediate market reaction was significant, with bonds and stocks recovering rapidly after Trump's statement. The S&P; 500 stock index jumped 1.5% by 9:30 am in New York, defying earlier futures contracts that signaled a 1% daily decline. However, Iran's response has shown that Trump's tactic may be losing steam. Iranian officials denied the 'productive conversations' Trump claimed had taken place, and launched missile attacks on Israel, Iraq, and other American allies in the Gulf. This has led to renewed market volatility, with oil prices rebounding and stocks giving up their gains. The article suggests that Trump no longer has control of events in Iran and that the conflict's outcome will likely be decided by Tehran. The Iranian regime has little incentive to back down, having already suffered significant losses but still capable of imposing enormous costs on the world by throttling the Strait of Hormuz and depriving the global economy of 12.5 million barrels of oil and 11.5 billion cubic feet of gas per day. As markets continue to react to the situation, it appears that Trump's 'Persian Tacos' may not be enough to calm investor nerves. The S&P; index lost 1.78% on Thursday, closing at a new low for the year, and the price of Brent crude hovered around $108.