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As the world becomes increasingly turbulent, UK experts are urging people to stockpile emergency foods to ensure they can survive in case of disruptions to food supplies. Prof Tim Lang, a food policy expert, warns that the UK's food system is a 'tinderbox' and that civil unrest and food riots could occur if there are shocks to the system.Experts recommend stockpiling long-life items that can be eaten without cooking, such as:tinned beans, vegetables, and fishrice crackersoatsIt's also important to have water - at least 7-12 liters per person per day. In addition to these essentials, consider including treats like chocolate or crisps to help maintain morale.Sharing stockpiles with neighbors is also crucial, especially for those who are food insecure. With 1 in 7 households with children already struggling to afford food in the UK, experts stress that social solidarity is key to maintaining social order.Countries like Switzerland, Germany, Latvia, and Lithuania take emergency food stockpiles seriously and provide guidance to their citizens on how to prepare. In contrast, the UK's advice on its Prepare website is minimal.Prof Sarah Bridle, at the University of York, recommends having an emergency food store and incorporating long-life items into daily diets. George Monbiot, a Guardian columnist, has revealed the contents of his own stockpile, which includes 25kg of rice, 15kg of dried chickpeas, and 5kg of oats.

Farmers in India and Sri Lanka are bracing for a potential food crisis as the conflict in Iran disrupts global fertiliser supplies. The war has led to a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for oil and gas supplies from the Gulf states, causing a shortage of natural gas and fertilisers.In India, farmers like Gurvinder Singh are worried about the impact on their crops. 'If we don't get fertilisers, there will be less yield. That will affect my entire family and the entire region, because we are completely dependent on agriculture.' India is the world's second-largest fertiliser consumer, using over 60 million tonnes annually, with most of its imports coming from Gulf countries.The World Food Programme has estimated that an extra 45 million people could be pushed into acute food insecurity if the conflict does not end by June. Experts warn that South Asian countries, including India and Sri Lanka, are particularly vulnerable due to their heavy reliance on imported fertilisers and gas.In Sri Lanka, the situation is dire, with farmers facing massive price increases and warning of a potential food crisis. The Sri Lankan government has attempted to control prices and ration fertiliser, but the chairman of the National Agrarian Unity warns that the fertiliser crisis is even bigger than the fuel crisis and poses a threat to national security.The conflict has already begun to strain supply chains, with gas supplies to fertiliser factories cut by 30%. Farmers are stocking up on fertiliser in advance, but many small-scale farmers are already operating with heavy losses and are crushed by debt.

Russia has announced plans to send a second oil shipment to Cuba as the Caribbean nation continues to face significant challenges due to a crippling US blockade. The announcement was made by Russian Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev, who stated that the cargo is currently being loaded and will soon be transported to Cuba. The development comes on the heels of a Russian tanker docking in Cuba's Matanzas oil terminal earlier this week, delivering approximately 700,000 barrels of crude oil. This shipment marked the first significant oil delivery to Cuba in nearly three months, and it was made possible by a waiver granted by the US administration for humanitarian reasons. Cuba has been facing weeks of blackouts, fuel rationing, and food shortages due to the US blockade, which was imposed by the Trump administration. The blockade has been described by Cuban officials as 'cruel' and has had a severe impact on the nation's economy and daily life. In response to the crisis, hundreds of people gathered in Havana to protest the US embargo, chanting slogans such as 'Yes to Cuba! No to the blockade!' The protests reflect the growing frustration among Cubans regarding the economic hardships caused by the blockade. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Oscar Perez-Oliva has stated that Havana and Moscow are working to achieve stability in fuel supplies and are making progress in talks aimed at increasing Russian companies' participation in oil exploration and production in Cuba. US President Donald Trump has commented on the issue, stating that he has 'no problem' with Russia sending oil to Cuba, while also expressing his views on Cuba's political situation.

Ramesh Kumar, a 42‑year‑old wheat farmer in Gurdaspur, Punjab, India, is already recalculating his budget as fertiliser prices climb and deliveries become erratic.He worries that higher input costs could force him to postpone his daughter’s wedding, delay school fees for his children, or even cut back on the amount of fertiliser he applies – a decision that could lower his harvest.While the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran unfolds thousands of kilometres away, its ripple effects are felt in the fields of Punjab, Kashmir, Pakistan’s South Punjab, Bangladesh’s Rangpur and Nepal’s Gulmi district.The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow chokepoint linking Gulf oil and gas producers to global markets, handles roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil and LNG shipments. Disruptions here delay the flow of natural gas used to produce nitrogen‑based fertilisers, inflating freight, insurance and ultimately fertiliser prices.South Asia, home to nearly two billion people, depends heavily on fertiliser‑intensive agriculture. In India, the sector is worth about $400 billion and employs over 46 % of the workforce; in Pakistan, it contributes close to 20 % of GDP; Bangladesh’s agriculture accounts for 12‑13 % of GDP; and Nepal relies on agriculture for roughly 24 % of its economy.Between 30 % and 35 % of India’s fertiliser imports, and up to 25‑30 % of Pakistan’s, Bangladesh’s, and Nepal’s imports, travel through routes that pass the Strait of Hormuz. Any prolonged blockage could therefore strain supply chains across the region.Governments are attempting to reassure farmers. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced expanded domestic production of urea, DAP and NPK, as well as the rollout of “Made‑in‑India Nano Urea” and solar‑powered irrigation under the PM Kusum scheme.Pakistan’s federal secretary for agriculture highlighted proactive monitoring, increased domestic urea and DAP output, and measures to keep fertiliser affordable.Bangladesh plans to import 500,000 tonnes of urea in the short term and is exploring alternative sources from China and Morocco, while Nepal’s agriculture ministry says supplies for the upcoming rainy season are secured, though it warns of possible shipment delays.On the ground, farmers are already adjusting. In Kashmir, mustard grower Ghulam Rasool says he reduces fertiliser use as soon as price signals rise, even before actual shortages appear. In Pakistan’s South Punjab, wheat farmer Muneer Ahmad fears higher costs will affect the entire community. In Bangladesh, Mohammad Ibrahim notes that fertiliser availability is becoming unpredictable, and in Nepal, Meghnath Aryal worries that delayed deliveries will hurt crop yields.These individual decisions have broader implications. Reduced fertiliser application can lower yields, which in turn pushes up food prices—a critical concern in a region where households allocate a large share of income to food.While no immediate shortage has been declared, the combination of higher global energy prices, logistical bottlenecks and geopolitical risk makes the situation volatile. Authorities in all four countries are urging farmers to supplement chemical inputs with organic alternatives such as manure, compost and green manuring.For Ramesh Kumar and millions of his peers, the distant Gulf crisis is not an abstract geopolitical story; it is a daily calculation of whether they can afford to feed their families and meet essential expenses.

The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil and gas shipping route blocked by Iran since the US-Israeli attacks began, is having ripple effects around the world. If the strait remains closed, transport blockages across the Middle East could cause significant shocks to food and medicine supplies in the UK.UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper is hosting a meeting with 35 other countries to discuss reopening the strait. Experts warn that a prolonged closure could lead to food price inflation doubling in England and medicine shortages due to disrupted supply chains.Impact on Food SuppliesProf Tim Lang from City St George's, University of London, warns that 'all bets are off' for food supplies if the crisis continues. Rising fossil fuel prices will impact food transportation and production, as fuel is used to transport food and produce fertilizers and other inputs.The farming sector is already facing problems, with dairy production hit due to delayed fertilizer purchases and salad vegetable and dairy producers facing disruptions. Iranian imports like pistachios and saffron are also affected.Impact on Medicine SuppliesWhile there's no hard evidence of medicine shortages yet, price increases are being seen, which can signal disruptions in the medicine supply chain. Iran does not manufacture many medicines but affects the sector through rising energy costs and transport links between major pharmaceutical-producing countries and the UK.David Weeks from Moody's notes that shortages are driven by delays in petrochemical precursors for active pharmaceutical ingredients. Medicine stockpiles in European countries, including the UK, can last up to six months, but long-term conflicts could lead to more severe shortages.

It's been 12 months since Donald Trump's 'liberation day' on April 2, 2025, when the US president introduced tariffs on nearly every country the US did business with. The move sent shockwaves through the global economy, causing chaos in Washington and beyond. Experts say that if Trump had spent the last 14 months on the golf course instead of in the White House, the US economy would be in a better place. The wholesale slashing of government jobs and defunding of US aid agencies had already signaled that Trump was in a hurry to upset institutions he considered profligate or useless. Investors quickly understood that chaos was an essential tool in Trump's armoury. Almost as soon as he was inaugurated, there was a steady decline in the value of the dollar against other currencies. Investors sold assets denominated in dollars and bought assets elsewhere: Europe, Asia, South America. Dario Perkins, the head of global research at the consultancy TS Lombard, said: 'If you think that discouraging investors from buying assets in the US is a victory, then you don’t believe in a growing economy.' He added that Trump's policies had led to a decline in US manufacturing jobs and a growing trade deficit. The data supports Perkins' claims. US companies stopped hiring almost as soon as liberation day was announced. Significant revisions in February to data covering 2025 pushed payroll employment down by 403,000 jobs, resulting in the addition of just 181,000 jobs last year. This small boost is set against the 163 million people who are employed in the US. Russ Mould, the investment director of the British stockbroker AJ Bell, said: 'America is still home to the world’s largest economy and its reserve currency, as well as the globe’s largest equity and bond markets, but investors continue to reassess their exposure one year on from liberation day.' The next few months of steadily increasing confidence levels followed probably the calmest period in the second Trump presidency. But sentiment began to fall again in the autumn as the White House battled with Congress over the federal budget deficit and much of the public sector was shut down. A poll by the University of Michigan showed consumer confidence at a near record low at the end of 2025. A six-month moving average produced by the Conference Board showed every generation, from baby boomers to gen Xers, had lost confidence in the economy over the past year. Trump’s liberation day executive order stated: 'The decline of US manufacturing capacity threatens the US economy in other ways, including through the loss of manufacturing jobs.' However, the US manufacturing sector shed 100,000 jobs between January 2025 and March 2026. The ratio of manufacturing workers to total nonfarm employment fell to the lowest point since 1939. Bryan Riley, the director of the National Taxpayers Union Foundation’s free trade initiative, said: 'One year after liberation day, the evidence is in. Tariffs failed even by the Trump administration’s own terms. They did not shrink the trade deficit, did not revitalise manufacturing and did not help farmers. It would be a mistake to replace one set of failed tariffs with another.' Some major US companies have redirected their investments to Europe, but China has proved to be one of the main beneficiaries. In the year to February 2026, China’s industrial profits increased by 15.2%. It's a boom that Beijing will struggle to repeat should Chinese companies face fuel and energy shortages and price hikes. But the decline of two major powers can only be to China’s gain.

Britain is confronting the most severe energy shock since the early 1970s, as exports of oil, gas and fertiliser from the Middle East have abruptly stopped. The government says a response plan exists, but details remain vague. It is unclear whether the UK is better prepared for the fallout from Donald Trump’s war with Iran than it was for the pandemic six years ago. Ministers are sending a "we have your back" message to the public while simultaneously signalling to financial markets that any assistance will be limited and targeted. Contingency planning is especially difficult when dealing with an unpredictable leader like Trump. Britain’s heavy reliance on imported energy and food means that reassurance can only hold for a short time. The economy entered the conflict already on shaky ground: unemployment rose steadily throughout 2025 and growth stalled to a virtual standstill in the final quarter of that year. The sudden loss of Middle‑East energy and fertiliser supplies now adds a colossal supply shock. Last year, Trump’s “liberation day” tariff hikes served as a dry run for a far more serious confrontation. This time, the war is taking place in a region that is both volatile and crucial to the global economy. In the past two weeks, the repercussions have been felt across Asia – the Philippines declared a state of emergency, Sri Lanka introduced a four‑day work week, and South Korea announced budget measures to help households cope with soaring energy bills. The continent is the most dependent on Gulf‑exported energy, making the impact there the sharpest. The International Monetary Fund warned that the shock will drive higher prices and slower growth worldwide. Shortages push fuel and food prices up, eroding disposable income, prompting businesses to cut staff, and increasing the risk of recession. The UK, already projected to be one of the poorest‑performing major economies in 2026, could see its fresh graduate cohort face a brutal job market. Trump’s claim that the war could end within two or three weeks appears desperate. Even a rapid cease‑fire would leave substantial collateral damage, creating a stagflation scenario that could hurt Republican prospects in the upcoming mid‑term elections. British officials hope a swift resolution will limit economic damage, allowing a short‑term inflation spike to subside and the Bank of England to resume interest‑rate cuts. Treasury plans include scrapping the planned autumn fuel‑duty rise and providing targeted help for the poorest households, though the path is unlikely to be that simple. Currently, the Treasury is hesitant to act boldly for fear of unsettling bond markets. History – the 2008 banking collapse and the 2020 pandemic – shows that governments can act decisively without triggering a market backlash, using tools such as aggressive rate cuts, increased borrowing, and quantitative easing. The Bank of England has warned of a "substantial negative supply shock" and is expected to soften markets for future rate cuts, which are inevitable. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves could mitigate labour‑market pain by reversing recent increases in employers’ National Insurance contributions, subsidising public transport, and even lowering speed limits to conserve energy. The war, like the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, underscores the fragility of global supply chains and the need for greater British self‑reliance. Investing heavily in renewable energy is essential, but the UK also imports roughly 40% of its food and has not run a manufacturing trade surplus since 1982. In a world of disrupted supply lines, a robust plan for economic self‑sufficiency is more urgent than ever. Larry Elliott is a Guardian columnist.

UK businesses are planning to raise their prices more rapidly in the coming months due to the escalating costs triggered by the Iran conflict. A recent survey conducted by the Bank of England among over 2,000 chief financial officers revealed that companies now anticipate increasing their prices by 3.7% over the next year. This marks an increase from 3.4% in February, while the expectation of inflation across the economy has also risen from 3% to 3.5%. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has significantly driven up oil and gas prices, leading to predictions of wider price rises as these higher costs impact industries. The UK Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has met with retail bosses to discuss the risks of supply shortages and price increases. There is also pressure on her to mitigate the impact of likely rises in household gas and electricity bills before next winter and to reconsider plans for a 5p per liter increase in fuel duty set to take effect by next March. Bank of England policymakers are closely monitoring UK companies' pricing intentions as they consider whether to raise interest rates in the coming months from their current level of 3.75%. Financial markets are currently pricing in two interest rate rises by the end of the year, reflecting a sharp turnaround from expectations of rate cuts before the conflict began. However, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has cautioned that markets may be getting ahead of themselves, and weak consumer demand may prevent companies from passing on cost increases to their customers. He noted that businesses often report an absence of pricing power. Inflation on the consumer price index was steady at 3% in February but is now expected to rise.

A Russian-flagged tanker, the Anatoly Kolodkin, has arrived in Cuba with a cargo of 730,000 barrels of oil, marking the first oil tanker to reach the island in three months. The vessel, under US sanctions, was permitted to deliver fuel for humanitarian reasons.The tanker docked in the Bay of Matanzas, Cuba's largest supertanker and fuel storage port, on Tuesday. Much of the nearby city and the majority of Cuba were without power when the tanker arrived. Cuba has been experiencing an energy crisis, with President Miguel Diaz-Canel stating that the country has not received an oil tanker in three months.The fuel shipment is expected to provide breathing room for Cuba's communist-run government amid growing pressure from the US. The crude on board will take days to process domestically and turn into motor fuel and refined products. The ship is carrying Russian Urals, a medium sour crude, suitable for Cuba's ageing refineries.Cuba produces only 40 percent of its required fuel and relies on imports to sustain its energy grid. Experts estimate that the anticipated shipment could produce about 180,000 barrels of diesel, enough to meet Cuba's daily demand for nine or 10 days.The arrival of the tanker has been welcomed by Cubans, including Energy and Mines Minister Vicente de la O Levy, who expressed gratitude to the Russian government and people for their support. The energy crisis in Cuba has led to long blackouts and severe shortages of food and medicine.