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Oil prices have reached their highest level in nearly two weeks, with Brent crude rising over 3% to $116 a barrel on Monday morning. The surge comes amid escalating tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran, with Iran accusing the US of preparing for a ground invasion.The conflict has disrupted about one-fifth of global oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) supplies, plunging the world into its biggest energy crisis in decades. Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a nearly 60% rise in oil prices since the start of the war.Analysts warn that oil prices are likely to keep rising unless maritime traffic returns to normal levels in the strait. US President Donald Trump has threatened to 'obliterate' Iran's energy infrastructure if Tehran does not relinquish its stranglehold on the waterway by a deadline of April 6.Greg Newman, CEO of Onyx Capital Group, said energy consumers are only beginning to feel the true fallout of the turmoil, with Brent expected to rise towards $120 and beyond. The scale of the disruption has yet to be fully appreciated, with physical premiums at their highest ever.

The recent conflict between the United States and Iran has sparked concerns over military overextension and the US's strategic approach in the Middle East. The war, initiated by President Donald Trump, has been characterized as a 'boomer war,' with limited support among younger generations. According to the article, the conflict's popularity declines with each younger cohort, with only one in five adults under 30 supporting the war.The author, Stephen Wertheim, argues that the war is anachronistic and reflects an outdated approach to foreign policy. He notes that every president since Trump, most notably Trump himself, has repudiated regime-change wars in the Middle East. The conflict has also raised concerns about the US's military capabilities and its strategic priorities in the region.Wertheim suggests that the war may be a last-ditch effort by older generations to impose their will on the region. He notes that sympathy for Israel is declining among millennials and Gen Z, which may have factored into the decision to launch the war. The article also highlights the risks of escalation and the potential for further conflict in the region.The author concludes that the US must reevaluate its approach to the Middle East and avoid tying itself to the region's problems. He argues that Americans must act to make warmakers pay a steep political price to prevent future conflicts. Ultimately, the article suggests that the US-Iran conflict is a critical moment for the US to reassess its foreign policy priorities and avoid further entanglement in the region.

China's economy is heavily reliant on oil refining, particularly in Shandong province, where independent 'teapot' refineries play a crucial role. These small refineries, often operating on thin margins, have been vital in keeping China's economy stable amidst the global energy crisis. The crisis began with US-Israel strikes on Iran, causing chaos in the Middle East and prompting Tehran to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for oil and gas flows. However, Iranian oil has continued to flow to China, with imports reaching about 1.6 million barrels per day. China's teapot refineries are now facing significant challenges due to rising crude prices. Iranian light crude, which was previously $11 cheaper than Brent crude, now has a discount as low as $2 per barrel. This has reduced the refineries' profits, with some workers fearing salary cuts. The impact is being felt across the industry, with Luqing Petrochemical, one of Shandong's prominent teapots, allegedly sanctioned by the US for buying Iranian oil. The company has started pressuring employees to quit by cutting salaries and relocating them to difficult work sites. The economic shock is also affecting ordinary people in China, with the government intervening in the retail fuel market to reduce a planned increase in petrol and diesel prices. However, if prices continue to rise, some teapot refineries may go bust. The long-term threat to the industry is not just the war but also the rise of electric vehicles, according to Uncle Wang, a petrol station owner in Weifang. As China transitions to cleaner energy sources, the demand for oil is expected to decline, posing a significant challenge to the teapot refineries and the thousands of people they employ.

The recent news of a six-year-old girl killed in Lebanon by an Israeli bomb has left many in tears. The child's tragic death serves as a stark reminder of the devastating consequences of war. As we bear witness to such horrors, it's essential that we don't turn away, but instead, take a moment to reflect on the human cost of conflict. The girl's death is a heart-wrenching example of the innocent lives lost in the ongoing violence. It's crucial that we acknowledge the pain and suffering of those affected, rather than becoming desensitized to the news. By doing so, we can work towards a deeper understanding of the complexities surrounding these conflicts. The international community must consider the long-term effects of war on civilians, particularly children. The emotional toll of such experiences can be profound and lasting. As we move forward, it's essential that we prioritize empathy and compassion in our response to these tragedies. Ultimately, it's our collective responsibility to stay informed and engaged, ensuring that the voices of those affected are heard and their stories are told. By doing so, we can work towards a more nuanced understanding of the world and its complexities.

Israel's parliament has passed a law that makes the death penalty the default punishment for Palestinians in the Israeli-occupied West Bank found guilty of intentionally carrying out deadly attacks deemed acts of terrorism by a military court.The legislation, initiated by the far-right Otzma Yehudit party led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, has drawn sharp criticism from opponents who warned it would mark a significant escalation in Israel's penal policy and potentially breach international law.According to the bill, those sentenced to death will be held in a separate facility with no visits except for from authorised personnel, with legal consultations conducted only by video link. Executions will be carried out within 90 days of sentencing.Israel has rarely used the death penalty, applying it only in exceptional cases. The Nazi war criminal Adolf Eichmann was the last person to be executed, in 1962.The measure will allow courts to impose the death penalty without a request from prosecutors and without requiring unanimity, instead permitting a simple majority decision. Military courts in the occupied West Bank will also be empowered to hand down death sentences.For Palestinians under occupation, the bill closes off avenues for appeal or clemency, while prisoners tried inside Israel could have their sentences commuted to life imprisonment.The legislation has been condemned by UN experts, the EU's diplomatic service, Amnesty International, and several countries, including Britain, France, Germany, and Italy, who expressed 'deep concern' over the legislation.The Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, condemned the legislation as a breach of international law and a doomed bid meant to intimidate Palestinians.

Spain has taken a firm stance against the US-Israel war on Iran by closing its airspace to US military aircraft involved in attacks. This decision, confirmed by Defence Minister Margarita Robles, underscores Spain's position as a leading critic of the conflict in Europe. The move forces military planes, including those based in the UK and other European countries, to bypass Spain when heading to targets in the Middle East, except in emergency situations. This development comes after Spain denied the US permission to use its military bases for operations related to the war. “We don’t authorise either the use of military bases or the use of airspace for actions related to the war in Iran,” Robles stated, emphasising Spain's clear stance. She described the war as “profoundly illegal and profoundly unjust.” Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has been vocal in his opposition to the war, calling for the US, Israel, and Iran to cease hostilities. His statements have previously drawn criticism from former US President Donald Trump, who threatened to cut off trade with Spain. The decision to restrict airspace access could potentially worsen Spain's already strained relations with the White House. However, Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo reiterated that Spain's stance is part of its broader refusal to participate in or contribute to a war initiated unilaterally and against international law. While US military aircraft can still use Spanish bases for logistics support under a bilateral agreement, 15 American KC-135 refuelling planes were recently diverted from bases in Spain to those in France and Germany.

Donald Trump has issued a stark warning to Iran, threatening to "obliterate" its power stations and fresh water plants if a peace deal is not reached soon. This comes as the US and Israel's joint war against Iran enters its second month, with Tehran remaining defiant in the face of US peace proposals.The conflict has already had significant repercussions, including a record monthly rise in oil prices and concerns over a potential US ground operation to seize Kharg Island. Trump's threat to destroy civilian infrastructure, such as power and water facilities, has been condemned by human rights groups as a potential war crime.The White House has also suggested that Arab countries may be asked to help foot the bill for the war, adding a new dimension to the conflict. "It's an idea that I know that he has," said White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt.International pressure is mounting, with Spain closing its airspace to US planes involved in the conflict and the UK's prime minister reiterating that "this is not our war and we are not going to get dragged into it". Egypt's president, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, has called on Trump to end the war, warning that "no one will be able to stop the war in our region".The conflict threatens to plunge the global economy into recession and trigger shortages of food and pharmaceuticals. The International Monetary Fund has warned that "all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth worldwide" if the conflict continues.

The recent meeting of foreign ministers from Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey in Islamabad signals the emergence of a new four-nation bloc in the Middle East. This bloc aims to promote a ceasefire in the region and curb the dominance of Iran and Israel.The group's primary goal is to persuade all sides to stop the escalation and agree to a ceasefire. According to Yasmine Farouk, a Gulf specialist at the International Crisis Group, the group will meet more frequently to achieve this goal.The meeting in Islamabad made some progress, including an Iranian agreement to allow vessels operating under the Pakistani flag to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The group will also act as a primary interlocutor with Iran, keeping indirect negotiating channels open between Tehran and the US.Turkey is seen as the most committed member of the group, with Hakan Fidan, Turkey's foreign minister, and İbrahim Kalın, the director of Turkish intelligence, urging Gulf states to consider the wider context of the war and the risks of encouraging an outcome in which Israel emerges stronger.The bloc's emergence is significant, as it brings together countries with different interests and perspectives on the conflict in the Middle East. The group's success will depend on its ability to navigate these complex relationships and promote a peaceful resolution to the conflict.

The US-Iran conflict, now in its fifth week, has escalated into a war of attrition with no clear strategy or end in sight. The US continues to hit Iranian targets while building up forces in the region, while Iran launches missile and drone attacks on Israel and neighboring Gulf states.The conflict has significant economic implications, with Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz causing oil prices to surge and disrupting global supply chains. The pain is likely to get worse, with shortages already felt across the world, from Asian factories to European diesel markets.The war should never have been started, with the threat not imminent, objectives unclear, and justification falling apart under scrutiny. Responsibility rests with Donald Trump and Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu. The delusion that force can impose a more compliant regime in Tehran has predictably given rise to a conflict that sustains itself.The only plausible exit is negotiation without preconditions. However, Mr. Trump mixes threats of escalation and claims that negotiations are progressing, with little evidence of a meaningful diplomatic track. The conflict cannot be separated from Gaza, where Mr. Netanyahu is gambling that war with Iran will restore his standing.If US ground forces are committed, the dynamic shifts, and American casualties will harden resolve among those who backed the intervention, making withdrawal politically harder. World powers can shift the incentives away from a US ground war by working together to insulate themselves from economic pain and coordinate diplomatic messaging.