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War‑Driven Surge Pushes U.S. Pump Prices Above $4.50 Since the U.S. and Israel struck Iran in late February, the national average gasoline price has climbed to $4.55 per gallon (as of 22 May), roughly $1.50 higher than the pre‑conflict level. The spike reflects a 53 % increase in retail fuel costs, according to data from the Guardian’s interactive chart. Quantifying the Shock: Key Price and Supply Metrics $4.55 – current national average gasoline price (22 May 2026). $3.00 – approximate pre‑war baseline. 53 % – price rise since the first U.S.–Israeli strikes. 20 million barrels per day – share of global seaborne crude that transits the Strait of Hormuz (≈25 % of world trade). 30‑60 days – typical time to turn a barrel of crude into finished fuel. Why Prices Won’t Normalize Even If Hostilities End Tomorrow Energy analysts Denton Cinquegrana (Dow Jones Energy) and David Ruisard (Argus Media) stress that the bottleneck is not just the price of crude but the physical state of Gulf infrastructure. Even an undamaged well requires weeks to restart, and large crude carriers move at only about 13 knots, meaning a full backlog could take three to five weeks to clear. Furthermore, the region’s refineries need time to heat up and resume processing, while logistics for repositioning tankers add additional delays. As a result, industry estimates for a return to pre‑war price levels range from six months to two years. Broader Economic Ripple Effects The sustained “war premium” on fuel is feeding inflation and shaping political sentiment, as reflected in recent polls showing a historic backlash against President Trump. Higher pump prices also pressure other transport fuels: diesel remains tight, and jet fuel spikes have forced European airlines to adjust routes, though Ryanair’s CEO Michael O’Leary notes a modest easing as alternative supplies arrive. Despite the cost, travel demand stays strong—AAA projects 45 million Americans will take a Memorial Day trip, potentially setting a new record. Outlook: Volatility Through Summer, Gradual Normalization Post‑Conflict If the Strait of Hormuz reopens immediately, analysts expect summer gasoline prices to settle in the mid‑to‑upper $3 range. If the chokepoint stays closed, prices could creep toward $5 per gallon and possibly set new records. Both Patrick De Haan (GasBuddy) and Cinquegrana agree that any short‑term dip after a peace announcement would be fleeting, driven more by sentiment than fundamentals. Long‑term, countries hit hardest by the shock—such as Pakistan, India, South Korea and Japan—are likely to build strategic reserves, adding a structural floor to demand. In short, even a rapid diplomatic resolution will not erase the supply‑chain lag, and U.S. drivers should brace for elevated fuel costs well into 2027.

Executive Summary: Miliband’s Call for a Broad‑Based EU DebateOn BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, David Miliband – former foreign secretary and president of the International Rescue Committee – argued that the United Kingdom must achieve a “national consensus” before pursuing any formal re‑entry into the European Union.Milestone Remarks on the Government’s Single‑Market PitchMiliband responded to recent revelations that the UK government has been pitching a single market for goods with the EU as part of a broader trade‑reintegration strategy. He described the current “reset” as insufficient, calling for a “much higher dosage” of engagement.Financial Snapshot: £9bn Reset vs. £3tn Economy£9bn – projected value of the government’s trade‑reset by 2040.£3tn – approximate size of the UK economy.Gap highlighted: the reset represents only about 0.3% of GDP, underscoring Miliband’s criticism of its scale.Strategic Implications for Britain and EuropeThe former minister stressed that security and prosperity hinge on an “institutionalised, deep and strong relationship” with Europe. He noted that the EU’s focus is shifting toward Ukraine’s potential membership, which could reshape the bloc’s dynamics and affect any future UK accession talks.He also warned that the pre‑2016 UK‑EU deal is no longer attainable, implying that any new agreement would need to reflect contemporary geopolitical realities.Looking Ahead: Pathways to Consensus and Possible Policy ShiftsMiliband suggested that the UK must engage in a nationwide debate on wealth creation, generational investment, and the role of government. He hinted that a shift in public opinion could eventually pressure policymakers to negotiate a more ambitious EU relationship, though no specific timeline was offered.

The Lead The Birthday Party, a film by Léa Mysius, brings a change of pace to the Cannes competition with its home-invasion suspense thriller. Adapted from Laurent Mauvignier's French bestseller Histoires de la Nuit, the film has its moments but falters in the third act. The Film's Dark Atmosphere Set in a remote French village, the story revolves around Thomas (Bastien Bouillon), a dairy farmer struggling with money woes. His family, including his wife Nora (Hafsia Herzi) and their daughter Ida, face a sinister threat when three tough guys, played by Benoît Magimel, Paul Hamy, and Alane Delhaye, invade their home on Nora's 40th birthday. The Performance Highlights Benoît Magimel stands out with a ripe turn, embodying a menacing character. The film also features Monica Bellucci as an elegant artist living next door, adding to the tense atmosphere. Despite some narrative shortcomings, the film manages to deliver a claustrophobic and bizarre experience. The Impact Analysis The film's screening at the Cannes film festival highlights its significance in the current cinematic landscape. While it may not fully absorb all plot twists, the tension is capably managed, making it a grimly compulsive watch. The Prediction As a contribution to the thriller genre, The Birthday Party will likely appeal to fans of rural suspense stories. Despite some flaws, Léa Mysius's direction and the performances, particularly by Benoît Magimel, make it a noteworthy entry in this year's festival lineup.

Lead: From On‑Screen Heroine to Real‑World SurvivorIn a candid Guardian interview, Hannah Murray reflects on the paradox of feeling liberated after quitting acting, only to be drawn into a high‑priced wellness cult that jeopardised her mental health. The experience culminated in a psychotic break, a brief hospitalisation, and a subsequent bipolar diagnosis.The cult’s promise and Murray’s descent into its underbellyAt 27, Murray joined an organisation that marketed “wisdom and specialness” for a fee running into thousands of pounds. The group’s charismatic leader, identifiable by a symbolic necklace and a giant Starbucks cup, offered a quick fix for the emptiness Murray felt after years of fame‑driven validation.Initial attraction: desire for lasting “specialness” beyond acting roles.Practices: meditation, gratitude diaries, and “spiritual” workshops.Cost: substantial financial outlay combined with escalating mental strain.The hidden price tag and mental‑health falloutThe cult’s financial demands were matched by a severe psychological toll. Murray experienced a catastrophic psychotic episode, leading to a brief stay in an acute mental‑health unit where she was diagnosed with bipolar disorder.Impact: What Murray’s story reveals about the wellness industry’s lure for young creativesHer narrative underscores a broader vulnerability: young, high‑profile individuals often seek quick‑fix solutions to the pressures of fame, making them prime targets for exploitative “wellness” enterprises. Murray notes a lack of critical scrutiny surrounding the industry’s promises, which are frequently presented as universally benign.Future outlook: Growing calls for accountability and mental‑health advocacyAs more public figures share similar experiences, the wellness sector may face increased regulatory attention and a push for transparent, evidence‑based practices. Murray’s memoir adds momentum to a cultural conversation about protecting vulnerable talent from predatory self‑help movements.

The LeadGame of Thrones actress Hannah Murray shares her experience of being sectioned in a psychiatric hospital in her new memoir "The Make-Believe: A Memoir of Magic and Madness." The actress describes her mental health journey and the experience of being involuntarily admitted under the Mental Health Act.The Hospital ExperienceThe door to the room opens. A man enters the room. He is a Black man, bald and overweight. He is dressed in uniform. Blue uniform, a blue lanyard that reads "NHS". But I know Steve, the leader of the organisation that introduced me to magic, is a magician. I know he can appear in disguise.I approach the man and try to kiss him.He does not let me kiss him. Then no. It is not Steve.The man has brought me a plate of toast. He has brought me a cup of tea. I add sugar to the tea, which I would never have done in my former life, but a spoonful of sugar helps the medicine go down!I am a Ritual Master. And this, drinking my own urine, is a powerful ritual. This is all I need now to survive … I will never need to eat again. I survive on liquids and air and lightI do not eat the toast. I drink the tea. I am alone in the room again and I urinate into the cup and drink that too.I am a Ritual Master. And this, drinking my own urine, is a powerful ritual. This is all I need now to survive. It is the most potent of potions I can drink. I am a self-contained, utterly self-sufficient being. I will never need to eat again. I survive on liquids and air and light.I decide to explore outside the room. Outside my sanctuary. He has not come. So maybe I need to go searching for him …The Phone CallTime jumps. I am in a corridor lit by overhead strip lights. The electric light is pale yellow in tone. I am sat on one of three chairs in a row against the wall. The chairs are purple, curved plastic. I am still waiting for him to appear.There are two doors in front of me. One is the door to the blue room with the blue sofa and chair. Behind the other door is an office of some kind, and there is a woman in there, shuffling papers and talking on the phone.The woman comes out of the office. She is holding out my phone. My only possession now – the one artefact from my previous life. There is someone she wants me to speak to.Him.When I hold the phone to my ear, I hear a voice I recognise.But the voice belongs to my mother."Hannah?" she says. "Where are you? What's going on?"There is distress in her voice. Her voice is trembling with pain and anxiety.I do not want to hear it.This is a test. A horrible test, certainly, but one that I can pass. They are trying to tempt me back into the human. They are trying to lure me back into the past.I hang up the phone.But, after a moment, it starts to ring. The word Mum lights up the screen."Talk to her," says the woman.I answer the call.My mother sounds different now. Calmer. She asks again what's going on but gently, even cheerfully. I tell her everything's OK. That I'm fine. I tell her not to worry. I'm in a good place.This is the last time I will ever hear her voice, I think. This is the way I say goodbye.The DiagnosisThey tell me I am being sectioned.The words jar with my beliefs."Section 2 … the Mental Health Act … 28 days … right to appeal … "I cock my head.This does not fit at all. It does not fit in the world of Steve, of Ritual Master, of Shambhala and the invention of magic.I am not concerned. I am concerned only with the energy I can feel spiralling up through my body and the voices I can hear in my head.I pace the hospital corridors, delivering a tearful monologue, delivering the greatest performance of my life. A phrase comes to me. The Girl With All the Gifts. The title of a post-apocalyptic horror film released in 2016, starring Gemma Arterton.I am a magician. I am an actress. I am a writer. I have superhuman strength. I can fly. Anything that can be imagined, I can perform it. Every skill and every ability is mine.The film came out as a warning, and a prophecy.And because of me, the apocalypse has been averted.I am the saviour of the planet. I am the girl with all the gifts.The Journey to RecoveryIt was very hard, the journey to get here. It took 27 years. The path was twisting and full of setbacks, there were challenges and so much pain. There were times I wanted to give up. It was very hard. Everyone will have to make their own journey, and their journeys will be their own, unique as snowflakes or fingerprints. That is the beauty of it, the joy of it. Everyone has to figure it out for themselves.But I have laid the groundwork. I have walked the path. It starts with the energy healing, and it goes on and on through the seven dimensions, through increasingly magical planes. It goes on and on until you meet your soulmate, like I met mine.I was in a TV show called Game of Thrones, hidden in plain sight in the midst of a cultural phenomenon. I, the key to the world's salvation, wore the face of a character called Gilly, but really I played every role. Then I worked on a film called Detroit in Boston. David Benioff and Dan Weiss and Kathryn Bigelow were the four horsemen of the apocalypse. Numbers are irrelevant. Three counts as four. David and Dan and Kathryn cast me in the roles that brought about my destiny. The end and beginning of the world.I am the Ur-actress. I am every actress. Every performance ever given has been animated by my energy, my talent, by the gestures and facial expressions I am performing here and now.The Memoir and BeyondThis is an edited extract from The Make-Believe: A Memoir of Magic and Madness by Hannah Murray, published by Cornerstone (£18.99). To support the Guardian, order your copy at guardianbookshop.com. Delivery charges may apply.Hannah Murray will be in conversation with Jessie Cave at Kings Place in London on 5 June.

Last Night's HeadlinesHere are some standout pieces from last night:Barney backs Tuchel’s squad: Tuchel has picked a good England squad and doesn’t care about the wider shout-verse | Barney RonayPep Guardiola turns on the charm as he waves goodbye to a dynasty: ‘My vibe and energy will be there for ever’: Guardiola turns on charm in City farewellSpygate looms over Championship play-off: Boro and Hull attempt to disregard ‘weird and crazy’ spygate noise in playoff finalToday's MatchesScottish Cup final: Celtic v Dunfermline @ Hampden Park @ 15:00Championship Play-off: Hull v Middlesbrough @ Wembley @ 15:30Women’s Champions League final: Barcelona v PSG @ Ullevaal Stadium, Oslo @ 17:00

Bernardo Silva: A One‑Man Utility Engine for Manchester CityThe Guardian’s tribute paints Silva as more than a footballer – a “time‑travelling, shapeshifting superhero” whose relentless work‑rate and technical brilliance defined a decade of success at Manchester City. His imminent exit marks the end of an era where a single player could seamlessly occupy every role on the pitch.The Unprecedented Versatility That Redefined the Modern MidfielderSilva routinely shifted from right‑back to playmaker, winger to libero within a single match, often completing a full positional rotation in a single move. This chameleon‑like adaptability allowed Pep Guardiola to experiment with fluid formations, turning defensive recoveries into instant attacks.Numbers Behind the Legend: Appearances, Goals, Assists and Stamina Records459 appearances for City76 goals and 77 assistsRecorded a Premier League distance of 13.7 km in a single match (City 2‑1 Liverpool, Jan 2019) – a league recordTwo decisive goals in the 2023 Champions League semi‑final against Real MadridHow Silva’s Style Shaped City’s Tactical DominanceHis ability to find space, execute split‑second passes and sustain high‑intensity runs enabled City to:Secure the first 100‑point Premier League seasonAchieve a domestic clean sweep of trophiesWin a treble (league, FA Cup, Champions League) and later a fourth consecutive league titleSilva’s “double engine” stamina meant he rarely needed substitution, giving Guardiola a reliable option to maintain pressure throughout 90 minutes.What Lies Ahead for Silva and the Premier League LandscapeWith Silva likely moving to a sunnier climate, his departure opens a strategic void that rivals will scramble to fill. Teams may seek to develop similarly versatile midfielders or adjust tactics to compensate for the loss of a player who could “play every position in a single move.” For Silva, the next chapter could involve a league where his unique skill set reshapes expectations for midfield endurance and adaptability.

Executive Summary: Asbestos Detected in Five UK‑Sold ToysFive children’s toys currently available in Britain have been found to contain asbestos fibres, according to laboratory tests commissioned by The Guardian. The discovery follows a wave of recalls that began in January 2026 after asbestos was identified in play sand.Laboratory Findings Reveal Widespread Asbestos in Sand‑Based ToysScientists at Brunel University’s Experimental Techniques Centre analysed six sand‑based products that were still on sale. Five of them tested positive for asbestos fibres.Fun Sand, Sand Art Bottle – HTI Group, sold via Curious MindsGlitter & Glow, Magical Sand Art – KandyToys, listed on GlowtopiaSand Filled Weirdo – Amazon marketplaceWordpad Montessori Sand Tray – Amazon marketplace4 Pack Stretchy Gorilla Toy – Amazon marketplaceBrunel’s lead scientific officer Ashley Howkins warned that “although the risk to health is small because the quantities of asbestos are small, there is still a risk,” especially for younger children.Scale of the Recall: Numbers and Brands AffectedMore than 30 toys have been withdrawn since the January 2026 sand‑sand recall.Five additional products identified in this round, representing three different retailers.Amazon has already removed the Weirdo and sand tray from its European stores and is investigating the gorilla toys.Curious Minds issued a recall notice and refunds within an hour of notification; Glowtopia pledged to remove the affected sand art and await guidance from KandyToys.Regulatory Gaps Exposed by Post‑Brexit Product Safety FrameworkThe incident highlights weaknesses in the UK’s reliance on self‑reporting and the fragmented safety regime across Europe. Products recalled in the Netherlands remain available in the UK, and the European Commission’s Safety Gate portal provides only a partial overview.UK product‑safety minister Kate Dearden acknowledged the concern and noted that new powers are being consulted to strengthen online safety and enforce stricter testing before products reach the market.What’s Next: Strengthening Oversight and Consumer GuidanceAuthorities plan to:Introduce mandatory independent verification for imported toys.Expand the scope of the UK’s product‑safety powers to allow pre‑emptive bans.Improve cross‑border information sharing with EU regulators.Advise consumers to seal contaminated items in double bags and seek local council disposal instructions.Continued monitoring and tighter regulation are expected to reduce the likelihood of asbestos‑containing toys re‑entering UK shelves.

Executive Summary of the UK‑EU Trade Pitch The UK is positioning a single market for goods as the flagship of its effort to re‑integrate trade with the European Union. While the Cabinet Office’s EU‑relations chief Michael Ellam presented the idea in Brussels, EU officials rejected it, preferring a customs union or European Economic Area alignment—options that clash with Prime Minister Keir Starmer's stated red lines. UK Proposes a Goods‑Only Single Market to the EU During recent visits to Brussels, Ellam outlined a framework that would allow tariff‑free movement of goods while keeping the UK outside the EU’s customs union and free‑movement rules. Sources told the Guardian that EU diplomats instead suggested a broader customs union or EEA economic alignment, both of which would require acceptance of free movement of people—something Starmer has ruled out for his lifetime. £9 bn Annual Boost from Proposed SPS and ETS Deals Negotiations include a sanitary‑phytosanitary (SPS) agreement for food and drink. An emissions‑trading scheme (ETS) linkage is also on the table. The Cabinet Office estimates these two measures could add £9 bn a year to the UK economy by 2040. Political Constraints Shaping the UK‑EU Trade Dialogue Labour’s ambition to deepen economic ties runs into the same obstacles that stalled former Prime Minister Theresa May's Chequers plan—namely, the need for a “common rulebook” without free movement of people. EU officials warn that granting the UK preferential treatment could fuel Eurosceptic sentiment in member states, potentially influencing upcoming elections such as the 2027 French presidential race. Domestically, the upcoming Makerfield by‑election adds pressure, with Labour’s Andy Burnham signalling a focus on domestic issues rather than a return to the EU. What the Next Summer Summit Could Deliver The tentative summit, pencilled in for 13 July, is expected to focus on three priority deals: a veterinary agreement, the SPS‑ETS package, and a youth mobility scheme. While the single‑market for goods proposal appears stalled, progress on the food‑trade and emissions deals could still materialise, providing a modest economic uplift and a diplomatic signal that the UK remains a constructive partner despite broader political disagreements.