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The Welfare Bill Conundrum Tackling the root causes of joblessness, instead of cutting benefits, is the best way to get the welfare bill down, and polling shows voters support that approach, according to research by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation. The Economic Impact of Joblessness In a forthcoming report, JRF economists show that hitting the government’s target of getting 80% of the working age population into jobs would cut the cost of universal credit by £10bn – an eighth of the current bill. The Data Analysis The research points out that official projections show spending on non-pensioner benefits “will remain flat, at around 5% of GDP for the remainder of the parliament”. A survey of more than 4,000 voters showed that 59% supported the idea of reducing the welfare bill in the longer term by tackling the underlying causes. The Impact Analysis The research seeks to push back against the “dominant political narrative” that spending on social security is “spiralling”. Instead, it points out that claims for health-related universal credit have risen more since the Covid pandemic in places where there are fewer jobs available locally, many of them former industrial or coastal areas. The Prediction The report contains calls for the government to prioritise measures such as increasing support for public health, building more social housing, and regenerating struggling regional economies. The research comes ahead of this week’s publication of the interim report from an inquiry into tackling young people not in education, employment or training (Neet) by Alan Milburn, the former cabinet minister who went on to chair the Social Mobility Commission.

The UK's Cooling Revolution More than 4 million homes in the UK now have air conditioning, double the figure from just three years ago, marking a significant shift in how British households cope with increasingly hot summers. Types of Cooling Systems and Their Usage Portable units with power ratings around 1kW are slightly more common than the more powerful built-in versions that can guzzle 2.7kW of power – more than an electric oven. Of the 4 million households with air conditioning, nearly 1.9 million have built-in units, while 2.2 million homes use portable air conditioning units. More than 260,000 UK households have heat pumps that can be used to cool homes. When used in cooling mode, heat pumps work like traditional air conditioning units by extracting heat from the home and releasing it outside. The Financial Impact of Cooling The energy consumption and associated costs of air conditioning are substantial. In a typical week, households use their built-in units for about four hours at a cost of £2.93. However, during heatwaves when usage increases to over nine hours daily, weekly costs soar to £42.43. Portable units, which use 1kW of power, typically cost 83p per week with three hours of usage. During hot spells, when used for more than nine hours daily, this rises to £15.71 weekly. Climate Change Drivers Experts suggest the increase in air conditioning ownership is the result of more people working from home and rising summer temperatures. Some of the UK's warmest summers have been in recent years, with the record high of 40°C set in July 2022. The government's climate advisers have warned that British homes will need air conditioning to survive predicted levels of global heating, as traditional cooling methods like drawing curtains and opening windows become insufficient. Future Projections and Recommendations The Climate Change Committee has recommended that air conditioning should be installed in all care homes and hospitals within the next 10 years, and in all schools within 25 years. Heatwaves were expected to exceed 40°C in all parts of the UK by 2050, potentially leading to an additional 10,000 heat-related deaths annually. With about nine in ten UK homes likely to overheat, the adaptation to higher temperatures is becoming increasingly urgent. However, air conditioning is energy intensive, accounting for about 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainable Cooling Solutions Sam Alvis, head of energy security at the IPPR thinktank, called for more solar panels on roofs alongside air conditioning installations. "We are going to have to get used to being a hot country, which is quite a mindset shift for the UK," he said. "Air conditioning is actually a great pair for solar from an energy system point of view because it matches supply and demand." More efficient modern systems using heat pumps, which are already subsidized by the government to replace gas boilers, could provide a more sustainable cooling solution, though these are rarely installed at present.

The Grenfell Tower Fire Prosecution Delays Relief at this week’s news that police are sending files to the Crown Prosecution Service, recommending charges against 77 individuals and organisations for their roles in the Grenfell Tower fire, is mixed with grief and anger. On 14 June the disaster’s survivors and their supporters will gather for the ninth annual silent walk around the west London neighbourhood in which the ruined tower stands. Next year marks a decade since the fire. Investigation Findings and Criticisms The public inquiry into the disaster pointed the finger at multiple public and private bodies, decisions and individuals. Three construction firms, Arconic, Kingspan and Celotex, were found to have been deliberately dishonest about their products. Poor regulation of building safety was the fault of central government. Kensington and Chelsea council, and its tenant management organisation, were strongly criticised for poor fire safety and other lapses. So were the architects and contractors commissioned to oversee the block’s refurbishment. The London fire brigade was culpable for its dangerous “stay put” policy, which should have been changed following previous cladding fires, including the one that killed six people in Lakanal House, south London, in 2009. Prosecution Delays and Concerns These conclusions, and the inquiry’s 58 recommendations, were delivered in September 2024. Yet even now, the prospect of criminal trials remains painfully remote. With prosecutors expected to decide on which charges to bring by next June, cases are unlikely to come to court until 2028 at the earliest. One survivors’ group, Grenfell Next of Kin, responded to Tuesday’s announcement with a statement that its confidence in the system has been “shattered”. Another group, Grenfell United, said that survivors “cannot be expected to endure years more of delay”. Calls for Accountability and Change Criminal convictions have never been the only outcome sought. Campaigners welcomed the public inquiry’s findings and recommendations. Multimillion pound settlements of civil suits have been agreed. Earlier this year the government pledged dedicated funding for a long-planned memorial. Building regulation is in the process of being overhauled. A programme of cladding removal continues. Future Actions and Expectations But there is frustration about the pace of change, and concern that the laws on corporate manslaughter and negligence are too weak. Last year the Common Wealth thinktank warned of the “very high threshold for liability” and called for tougher penalties to ensure “meaningful deterrence”. Some of the firms who bear responsibility for the Grenfell fire continue to win public contracts – causing further distress.

Manchester's Significant Decline in Deprivation Manchester has recorded the biggest fall in inner-city deprivation in Britain, according to a report by the Centre for Cities. This achievement is a significant boost for Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, who is preparing to fight the Makerfield byelection before an expected leadership challenge against Keir Starmer. Key Findings of the Centre for Cities Report The report analyzed 63 UK towns and cities and found that Manchester had a 17-percentage-point fall in deprivation rates for neighborhoods within close proximity to its city centre between 2010 and 2025. This is the largest fall of any city analysed. Deprivation Rates: Then and Now In 2010, 75.7% of neighborhoods in and around Manchester's city centre ranked among the most deprived. By 2025, this number had decreased to 58.4%. Nationwide, the share of inner-city neighborhoods in the 20% most deprived places fell by seven percentage points, from 38% to 31%. The Impact of Devolution Andrew Carter, the thinktank's chief executive, emphasized the importance of backing metro mayors. He stated that big cities with devolved powers had outperformed smaller cities and towns, and that the government should continue to support mayors to deliver and ensure their plans for fiscal devolution reward metro mayors for boosting local growth. Future Outlook This report is likely to strengthen Burnham's claim that his approach to economic management, dubbed 'Manchesterism,' could be replicated nationwide. As the frontrunner to replace Keir Starmer, Burnham's success in Manchester could serve as a model for his potential future leadership role.

The Rise of AI Misinformation in Elections The Electoral Commission has called for new legal controls over misinformation from AI chatbots, after a thinktank found they had made serious mistakes during the recent Scottish election. The Study's Findings The thinktank Demos said its investigation had found that AI services gave voters misinformation to 34% of the questions it posed, which it said raised worrying questions about the lack of regulation of AI platforms in the UK. ChatGPT gave wrong information in 46% of its answers, including making up an expenses scandal. Replika had errors in 56% of its answers, inventing a date for a made-up expenses scandal and accusations of nepotism by a candidate. Google Gemini was wrong in 22% of cases, including saying a candidate had not taken a position on assisted dying when they were a supporter. The Impact of AI Misinformation Vijay Rangarajan, the Electoral Commission’s chief executive, said voters want accurate information to help them engage with democracy and it is concerning that AI tools have made the spread of false or misleading information dramatically faster and more accessible than ever. The Call for Regulation The Electoral Commission is pressing ministers to introduce legislation to make AI companies more accountable, including clearer duties on AI platforms to protect voters against misinformation and ensure algorithms do not mislead voters. The Future of AI Regulation Azzurra Moores, an associate director at Demos, said ministers could quickly introduce legal requirements to make AI companies liable under UK defamation and electoral law, introduce mandatory safeguards on accuracy, and force AI firms to allow researchers to independently test how their internal data and training sets worked.

The Soros Foundation's Major US InvestmentFor decades, the Open Society Foundations have worked to advance justice and human rights in Africa, the Middle East and trouble spots around the world. But the OSF's latest major investment is aimed at a crisis closer to home. On Tuesday, the organisation, founded by the billionaire philanthropist George Soros and headquartered in New York, announced a $300m spend aimed at boosting economic security and defending civil liberties in the US.Addressing America's Dual CrisisThe drastic commitment comes 16 months into Donald Trump's second term as president, with millions of Americans suffering an affordability crisis and activists warning of an extraordinary attack on the rule of law. "We certainly believe that civil society is essential and must stay on the playing field," said Laleh Ispahani, managing director for the US at the OSF. "We've had experience in other countries, unfortunately, where civil society has been targeted by autocratic administrations. It does matter that we still are funding in most parts of the world and are very much in communication with one another as things are happening in the US."The Soros Legacy and Political BacklashSoros has given more than $32bn of his personal fortune to causes around the world. He is also a longtime Democratic donor and favorite bogeyman for the right. The attacks frequently rely on antisemitic tropes, framing Soros – a Jewish survivor of the Nazi occupation in Hungary – as a "globalist" puppet master. Asked whether the foundation was prepared for an inevitable backlash accusing Soros of meddling in US democracy, Ispahani sounded unfazed, saying: "We fully expect that. We wouldn't expect anything less. But we also won't be intimidated into silence."An Integrated Approach to Rights and EconomyFor decades, reformers have often operated in silos, focusing their energies either squarely on democratic rights or exclusively on economic justice. OSF's new initiative is designed to break down those barriers. "What's new and different and perhaps most distinct about this is that it's a unified and focused effort," Ispahani explained. "We want to fund this integrated strategy to improve our democracy by both modernising our rights and freedoms and reforming our economy as things that are two sides of the same coin, because when one suffers, inevitably the other does, too."The Erosion of Civil Rights ProtectionsThe urgency is driven by what the OSF perceives as an alarming reversal of fundamental protections, spearheaded by a rightwing majority on the supreme court. "It's pretty clear to us that today these rights are being rolled back, including the right to protest, civil rights and voting rights, with the supreme court's recent decisions eviscerating very key protections of the civil rights era," Ispahani said. "We had the supreme court putting a nail in the coffin of what was a very widely respected Voting Rights Act with its recent decision in the Louisiana v Callais case, so we're back to this pre-60s moment in the world."Modernizing the Civil Rights ParadigmTo combat this, the OSF is advocating for an expansion of the civil rights paradigm to meet modern threats, from securing the right to elect representatives of the voter's choice to combating new forms of discrimination in algorithmic and technology-driven bias. The OSF has already committed $20m for this year to help organisations on the frontlines with strategic litigation, non-profit sector defence and efforts to track government corruption. Among them are the Roosevelt Institute, the Groundwork Collaborative thinktank, the National Women's Law Center, and state-level groups such as Living United for Change in Arizona.Economic Inequality in AmericaThe other central pillar of the $300m investment is economic security. Even in the wealthiest country in the world, the child poverty rate is 14.3%, estimated to affect about 10.4 million children. The top 20% of households currently capture more than half of all national income. Ispahani argues the current system is failing. "Why not have moral and material rights that resonate across constituencies?" she said. "The right to a good job with fair wages and safe working conditions isn't controversial. The right to stable and affordable housing is likely very popular. The right to accessible and affordable childcare is likely also very popular."The Future of American DemocracyThe Open Society Foundations' substantial investment represents a significant commitment to preserving democratic values in the United States during a period of political polarization and economic uncertainty. By linking civil liberties with economic security, the foundation aims to create a more comprehensive approach to addressing America's challenges. As Ispahani stated, "We think our work has never mattered more. It matters most in places when democracy is under attack, when rights are being rolled back and peaceful dissent is being criminalized."

The 'China Shock 2.0' Warning from BrusselsGermany is facing a critical warning from the Centre for European Reform (CER) regarding its economic reliance on China, which could lead to a repeat of the 'China Shock 1.0' experienced by the United States.The $94bn Trade Imbalance and Currency ManipulationChina's surplus with Germany doubled between 2024 and 2025 from $12bn to $25bn.The total trade imbalance has reached $94bn.China reported a record $1.2tn trade surplus in 2025.The yuan is potentially undervalued against the euro by 40%.Hollowing Out the MittelstandThe report warns that Beijing’s '10,000 little giants' policy is specifically targeting Germany’s Mittelstand, the ecosystem of middle-sized industrial suppliers. The CER describes Germany's failure to diagnose the root cause as 'phantom pain' caused by the loss of export demand.Berlin's Offensive StrategyThe CER concludes that Berlin must stop admiring the problem and instead go on the offensive. The thinktank recommends supporting Paris in pushing the IMF and G7 to confront China’s currency undervaluation and one-sided trade model.

The Radical Tax Overhaul to Solve London's Housing Crisis The Centre for London has proposed a radical overhaul of London's property taxation, suggesting the scrapping of Stamp Duty and Council Tax in favor of a Proportional Property Tax (PPT). This proposal aims to address widening inequality, release housing stock, and fund the construction of 106,000 new social homes over the next decade. A Radical Shift in London's Taxation Model The core of the proposal involves replacing the current Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) and the outdated Council Tax system with a new annual property wealth tax. The new Proportional Property Tax (PPT) would be calculated as a percentage of a home's value, with rates increasing for higher-value properties. Base Rate: 0.39% on properties up to £800,000. Incremental Charges: Additional 0.01% for homes up to £999,999, and 0.02% for every £200,000 over £1m (capped at 0.82% for properties worth £5m). Under this model, a £500,000 home in Greenwich would pay £1,950 annually, saving the owner over £15,000 in the first 10 years compared to current taxes. Conversely, a £5m home in Westminster would pay £41,000 annually, saving £86,792 over a decade. Quantifying the Housing Inequality Gap The report highlights a stark disparity in space utilization and affordability. Despite London having more housing per person than 20 years ago, inequality has widened significantly. Floor Space Growth: Average floor space rose by 30% between 2004 and 2023. Income Disparity: Top 20% of homeowners saw a 27% rise in space, while the bottom 40% saw only a 6% rise. Price-to-Earnings: House prices are now 12 times earnings, up from 7 times in the early 2000s. The crisis is further evidenced by the fact that homelessness costs £5.5m daily and a third of children live in poverty after housing costs. Economic Implications for Renters and First-Time Buyers The proposed tax shift aims to alleviate the crushing financial burden on younger generations and renters. By removing Stamp Duty on primary residences, the thinktank estimates an extra 79,000 homes could be released annually as owners move. Renter Savings: Private renters would no longer pay Council Tax, saving more than £1,890 per year. First-Time Buyer Savings: Buyers would save £8,593 across five years of ownership. Deposit Support: The policy aims to help renters save for a deposit, which currently averages £150,000 without family assistance. The Future of London's Housing Market Rob Anderson, the director of research at the Centre for London, argues that the crisis cannot be solved by simply "building more homes." He emphasizes that the current system incentivizes holding onto property rather than downsizing or releasing stock. The proposal suggests that by removing the disincentives of Stamp Duty and Council Tax, the city can unlock existing housing stock and generate the necessary revenue to build 106,000 social and affordable homes, fundamentally altering the trajectory of London's housing affordability.

The Rescue Deal in JeopardyA rescue deal for Thames Water is under threat due to uncertainty surrounding the UK's prime minister position, government insiders have revealed. Ministers are currently negotiating a takeover deal for the stricken water company with a consortium of creditors led by American investment firm Elliott Management, though the expected conclusion this month has been thrown into doubt.Political Uncertainty Clouds Water Company FutureThe uncertainty stems from questions about Keir Starmer's position as prime minister, with his most likely successor, Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, having expressed interest in bringing utility companies under public control. Burnham's supporters have specifically mentioned Thames Water as a potential first target if he enters Downing Street, creating significant hesitation among current government officials about proceeding with the private sector rescue deal.Mounting Financial PressuresThames Water has been attempting to stave off financial collapse for more than two years, burdened by a £17.6bn debt accumulated in the decades following its privatization. The company's previous attempt to sell itself fell through last year when preferred bidder KKR pulled out at the last minute. Creditors, who provided £3bn in emergency funding last year, have demanded a write-off of tens of millions in fines for sewage dumping and reduced environmental investment requirements until 2030.Industry-Wide ImplicationsThe situation with Thames Water reflects broader tensions in the UK's water industry between private ownership and public control. Government sources have previously argued that taking Thames Water public would cost £100bn to compensate private sector creditors, though experts dispute this figure, suggesting ministers may have legal grounds to avoid compensation given the company's financial state and creditors' historical profits. The potential collapse of the deal could trigger special administration—a form of temporary nationalization—forcing the government to either sell the company or bring it under public control.Political Shifts and Future ScenariosRegardless of whether Burnham becomes prime minister, Defra sources believe a weakened Starmer or any other Labour leader would find it difficult to allow the current private sector deal to proceed. Many of Burnham's supporters, including the thinktank Compass, have actively campaigned for public ownership of the entire water industry, arguing that maintaining private ownership with existing debt levels is 'shortsighted and dangerous.' The coming months will likely determine whether Thames Water becomes a test case for the future of UK utility ownership.