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Executive Summary: Coordinated ASEAN Response to Iran‑War Energy ShockSoutheast Asian leaders, convened in the Philippines, pledged stronger cooperation to mitigate the soaring energy prices and supply disruptions caused by the United States‑Israeli war on Iran.Summit Highlights: Energy‑Sharing Pact and Power‑Grid Integration by 2045Ferdinand Marcos Jr opened the meeting, warning that the conflict has raised "higher living costs" and threatened livelihoods both at home and for nationals abroad.ASEAN members, representing over 700 million people, will issue a joint statement demanding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and improved crisis communication.The bloc is pushing for a voluntary energy‑sharing agreement and the creation of an ASEAN power grid to link electricity networks by 2045.Energy Price Surge and Supply Disruptions Across Southeast AsiaIran’s shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has blocked a large share of regional oil and natural‑gas supplies.Manila declared a national emergency in March; Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia have introduced price caps and work‑from‑home schemes.Petrochemical firms in Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore invoked force majeure on existing contracts.Regional Security, Trade Routes, and Economic CooperationBeyond energy, the summit underscored concerns over overlapping territorial claims in the South China Sea, where China, the United States and allies have recently conducted naval drills. Experts like Tan Hsien‑Li expect ASEAN to seek deeper economic ties with like‑minded partners in Latin America and the Asia‑Pacific, and to push for substantive outcomes on the ASEAN Economic Community, Power Grid and Digital Economic Framework.Outlook: Toward a More Integrated ASEAN Energy FrameworkIf the proposed agreements materialise, ASEAN could reduce its vulnerability to external shocks, bolster energy security, and set a precedent for collective action on geopolitical crises. Continued diplomatic pressure on Iran and coordinated regional policies will be critical to stabilising energy markets and safeguarding trade routes in the coming years.

The Philippines has made a grave accusation against China, claiming that Chinese boats were found with cyanide near the disputed Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. Laboratory tests confirmed the presence of the toxic substance in bottles seized by the Philippine navy last year. Security officials warned that the cyanide could have severe consequences for marine life and potentially weaken the reef that supports a warship Manila grounded on the atoll to reinforce its maritime claim. The use of cyanide is seen as a form of sabotage aimed at killing local fish populations and depriving navy personnel of a vital food source. Cornelio Valencia, spokesperson for the National Security Council, emphasized that the cyanide could damage the reef and compromise the stability of the warship. In response, China's Foreign Ministry dismissed the Philippines' assertions as a 'stunt,' accusing Manila of illegally harassing Chinese fishing boats and staging the incident. The incident is part of a broader maritime dispute between China and the Philippines, with China claiming nearly all of the South China Sea, including areas claimed by other nations. The dispute has led to several confrontations, including a violent incident on June 17, 2024, where a Filipino sailor lost a finger. The Philippines also accused Chinese coastguard ships of firing water cannons at Filipino fishermen in December 2025, injuring three people and damaging two fishing vessels. Despite these tensions, China and the Philippines held high-level talks last month to explore preliminary steps towards oil and gas cooperation and confidence-building measures at sea. However, the Philippine Foreign Ministry noted that the scope of coastguard cooperation would be limited and did not include joint patrols. The South China Sea is a critical waterway, with over $3 trillion in annual ship-borne commerce traveling through it. A 2016 ruling by an international arbitral tribunal found China's sweeping claims had no basis under international law, a decision China rejects.

Jeepney driver Arturo Modelo of Manila says his daily earnings have collapsed to roughly one‑third of the usual 600 pesos after fuel costs surged, leaving him unable even to afford his child’s lunch money.Modelo joined a two‑day transport strike on Thursday and Friday, hoping to make a “deaf government” listen to the plight of drivers who can no longer earn a living on the road.The iconic jeepney, born from repurposed U.S. military vehicles after World War II, remains the most affordable commuter option in the Philippines, yet its operators are now bearing the brunt of a global oil shock.Last week, jeepney owners walked out, and this week the protest expanded to include bus, taxi, minibus and motorcycle‑taxi drivers. Nearly a dozen national transport groups marched to the Presidential Palace demanding price caps on petrol and diesel, the removal of fuel taxes, and stricter regulation of the oil sector.Organised under the No to Oil Price Hike Coalition, the demonstrators also blamed “American aggression” against Iran for the domestic economic distress, with union chair Jerome Adonis likening the impact to “a bomb dropped on us”.In response, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr declared a national energy emergency on Tuesday night – the first such declaration in the country’s history. The emergency, set to last one year, grants the government powers to accelerate fuel procurement, curb hoarding and curb profiteering.Fuel prices remain among the highest in Southeast Asia: diesel is now about $2.3 per litre and petrol close to $2 per litre in the Philippines, versus $2.7 and $2.35 respectively in Singapore, while Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand report roughly half those prices.To alleviate the burden, the administration has introduced a 5,000‑peso ($83) subsidy for motorcycle‑taxi drivers and other public‑transport workers, and disbursed 2.5 billion pesos (≈$414 million) in fuel subsidies to roughly 300,000 transport employees. Unions claim the sector employs about two million people, leaving many without aid.During the strike, picket lines appeared at 85 commuter terminals, and jeepneys were scarce on Manila’s usually congested streets. Authorities, however, argued that the action did not cripple the city’s transport network.Union leader Mody Floranda of the Piston group accused President Marcos of favouring oil companies, saying the president could issue an executive order to cap prices but has yet to act decisively.Energy officials note that 98 % of the Philippines’ crude oil is imported and that the country’s high 12 % value‑added tax, excise duties and a deregulated market – shaped by the Oil Industry Deregulation Law of 1998 – amplify price volatility. Professor Krista Yu of De La Salle University highlighted the nation’s limited refining capacity as a structural weakness.Chief economist Emmanuel Leyco warned that the law allowing industry‑driven price adjustments “is the main culprit”, especially as “half the population is poor”.Amid mounting pressure, Marcos signed legislation permitting the temporary suspension of fuel excise taxes when crude oil prices exceed a set threshold. Opposition lawmaker Renee Co urged that the 12 % VAT also be removed, calling both taxes “regressive” burdens on ordinary Filipinos.Co and other lawmakers have also filed a resolution demanding an immediate end to the U.S.‑Israel‑Iran conflict, linking regional geopolitics to the domestic fuel crisis.

Manila, Philippines, is experiencing a rare phenomenon - empty streets. For years, the city's transport congestion has been notorious, ranking worst globally in 2024, according to the TomTom traffic index. However, a 26km drive from the Manila airport to the Quezon City Hall now takes just 45 minutes, instead of the typical two hours, according to Google Maps.The reason behind this sudden change is the surge in fuel prices following the United States and Israel's joint military operation against Iran almost a month ago. This has resulted in a significant decrease in vehicular traffic, with fewer buses, jeepneys, and ride-hailing vehicles plying the streets.The impact is being felt by vendors and transport workers, such as Ruben, a 27-year-old parking attendant, who earned less than half his usual collection on a typical Wednesday. Emily Ruado, a 59-year-old paper napkin vendor, also reported a decline in her daily income from $10 to $5.The financial difficulties faced by individuals like Ruben and Emily reflect a bigger headache for the Philippines, as worries of a sharp increase in prices of basic goods and sudden loss of employment for thousands of people could quickly lead to a stagnating economy. The country's GDP growth rate of 5 percent is now becoming more unlikely.The surge in fuel prices has also exposed the acute insufficiency of Manila's limited railway network, with commuters swelling during rush hour at metro stations. This highlights the need for improved infrastructure and the multibillion-dollar infrastructure corruption scandal still roiling the country.