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Ramesh Kumar, a 42‑year‑old wheat farmer in Gurdaspur, Punjab, India, is already recalculating his budget as fertiliser prices climb and deliveries become erratic.He worries that higher input costs could force him to postpone his daughter’s wedding, delay school fees for his children, or even cut back on the amount of fertiliser he applies – a decision that could lower his harvest.While the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran unfolds thousands of kilometres away, its ripple effects are felt in the fields of Punjab, Kashmir, Pakistan’s South Punjab, Bangladesh’s Rangpur and Nepal’s Gulmi district.The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow chokepoint linking Gulf oil and gas producers to global markets, handles roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil and LNG shipments. Disruptions here delay the flow of natural gas used to produce nitrogen‑based fertilisers, inflating freight, insurance and ultimately fertiliser prices.South Asia, home to nearly two billion people, depends heavily on fertiliser‑intensive agriculture. In India, the sector is worth about $400 billion and employs over 46 % of the workforce; in Pakistan, it contributes close to 20 % of GDP; Bangladesh’s agriculture accounts for 12‑13 % of GDP; and Nepal relies on agriculture for roughly 24 % of its economy.Between 30 % and 35 % of India’s fertiliser imports, and up to 25‑30 % of Pakistan’s, Bangladesh’s, and Nepal’s imports, travel through routes that pass the Strait of Hormuz. Any prolonged blockage could therefore strain supply chains across the region.Governments are attempting to reassure farmers. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced expanded domestic production of urea, DAP and NPK, as well as the rollout of “Made‑in‑India Nano Urea” and solar‑powered irrigation under the PM Kusum scheme.Pakistan’s federal secretary for agriculture highlighted proactive monitoring, increased domestic urea and DAP output, and measures to keep fertiliser affordable.Bangladesh plans to import 500,000 tonnes of urea in the short term and is exploring alternative sources from China and Morocco, while Nepal’s agriculture ministry says supplies for the upcoming rainy season are secured, though it warns of possible shipment delays.On the ground, farmers are already adjusting. In Kashmir, mustard grower Ghulam Rasool says he reduces fertiliser use as soon as price signals rise, even before actual shortages appear. In Pakistan’s South Punjab, wheat farmer Muneer Ahmad fears higher costs will affect the entire community. In Bangladesh, Mohammad Ibrahim notes that fertiliser availability is becoming unpredictable, and in Nepal, Meghnath Aryal worries that delayed deliveries will hurt crop yields.These individual decisions have broader implications. Reduced fertiliser application can lower yields, which in turn pushes up food prices—a critical concern in a region where households allocate a large share of income to food.While no immediate shortage has been declared, the combination of higher global energy prices, logistical bottlenecks and geopolitical risk makes the situation volatile. Authorities in all four countries are urging farmers to supplement chemical inputs with organic alternatives such as manure, compost and green manuring.For Ramesh Kumar and millions of his peers, the distant Gulf crisis is not an abstract geopolitical story; it is a daily calculation of whether they can afford to feed their families and meet essential expenses.

The conflict in Iran has sparked concerns about a potential global food crisis due to a looming shortage of fertiliser, a crucial component in food production. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route, has been disrupted, impacting the export of fertilisers from Gulf countries.On March 2, Ebrahim Jabari, a senior adviser to the commander-in-chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), announced that the Strait of Hormuz was 'closed', causing oil prices to soar above $100 per barrel. However, experts warn that a parallel crisis is emerging - a considerable threat to global food security due to a shortage of fertiliser.Nearly half of the world's traded urea, the most widely used fertiliser, and large volumes of other fertilisers are exported from Gulf countries via the Strait of Hormuz. Recent disruptions to gas supplies and shipping have already forced fertiliser plants in the Gulf and beyond to shut or cut their output.Countries such as India, Brazil, and China are heavily dependent on Gulf fertiliser exports, with India sourcing over 40% of its urea and phosphate fertilisers from the region. A prolonged fertiliser shortage and hike in fertiliser prices could lead to reduced crop yields, affecting food security worldwide.The urea export prices from the Middle East have surged by about 40%, rising from just less than $500 to a little more than $700 per metric tonne. The price is currently close to 60% higher than this time last year.According to one shipping services company, 20% of the world's fertiliser originates in the Gulf, while 46% of global urea supply comes from the Gulf. Qatar Fertiliser Company (QAFCO), considered the world's largest urea supplier, alone supplies 14% of the world's urea.Analysis by Kpler, a data and analytics company, shows that as much as one-third of global fertiliser trade could be disrupted if the closure of the Strait of Hormuz persists. This could lead to nitrogen fertiliser prices doubling and phosphate prices climbing by about 50%.