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U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the next nuclear accord with Iran will be “far better” than the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) he abandoned in 2018, adding new demands on enrichment, ballistic missiles and proxy groups as a two‑week cease‑fire in the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict nears its end.Key DevelopmentsTrump asserts the forthcoming deal will surpass the JCPOA, which limited Iran’s uranium enrichment to 3.67% and reduced centrifuges to 6,104.New US‑Israel demands include: zero uranium enrichment, removal of the estimated 440 kg of 60%‑enriched uranium, strict caps on ballistic‑missile development, and a halt to support for Hezbollah, the Houthis and other proxy forces.Negotiations are expected to shift to Islamabad, Pakistan after the current cease‑fire expires.Analyst Andreas Kreig (King’s College London) predicts any new pact will likely resemble the JCPOA with limited tweaks, not the sweeping concessions Trump touts.Data & Market ImpactU.S. sanctions imposed after the 2018 withdrawal cut Iran’s oil exports by roughly 60 %, slashing revenue by an estimated $30 billion per year.Frozen Iranian sovereign assets total about $150 billion; their release would inject significant liquidity into Iran’s banking sector.IAEA reports indicate Iran now holds 440 kg of 60%‑enriched uranium, enough to reach weapons‑grade (90%) in weeks if centrifuge capacity is fully utilized.Why This MattersThe outcome will shape three critical arenas:Regional security: A stricter deal could curb Iran’s missile reach, reducing the threat to Israel’s “Iron Dome” and to Gulf‑state oil infrastructure.Global non‑proliferation: Allowing zero enrichment would set a precedent that could pressure other volatile states to accept similar terms, but it also risks driving Tehran underground if perceived as punitive.Economic stability: Lifting sanctions would revive Iran’s oil exports, potentially adding $20‑30 billion to global supply and influencing crude prices.Expert InsightAndreas Kreig warns that Tehran’s political climate has hardened; the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps now dominates strategic decision‑making, making concessions on sovereignty unlikely. While the United Nations resolution attached to the JCPOA prohibited missile work linked to nuclear delivery, the new U.S. demand for outright missile bans exceeds that framework and could stall talks.Economic incentives—rapid asset release and sanction relief—are the primary leverage for Washington. However, without a credible verification regime comparable to the JCPOA’s intrusive IAEA inspections, any “better” deal may lack enforceability, increasing the risk of clandestine enrichment.What Happens NextNegotiators are expected to convene in Islamabad within the next two weeks; the agenda will likely focus on enrichment thresholds and verification mechanisms.If talks stall, both sides may resort to further kinetic actions, as seen in recent strikes on Natanz, Isfahan and Bushehr facilities.International actors—EU, China, Russia—are poised to mediate, pushing for a compromise that balances sanctions relief with robust monitoring.Long‑term, the region’s stability hinges on whether the U.S. can deliver tangible economic benefits to Iran while securing verifiable limits on its nuclear and missile programs.

Day 44 of the US‑Iran war ended without a peace deal as a marathon 21‑hour session in Islamabad collapsed, jeopardising the fragile cease‑fire that has held since the conflict began over six weeks ago.Vice President JD Vance, leading the US delegation, told reporters that the lack of an agreement was "bad news for Iran much more than it’s bad news for the United States of America," before departing Pakistan.Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar pledged that Islamabad would continue to facilitate dialogue between the two longtime adversaries.In Iran, officials downplayed expectations, noting that no one anticipated a settlement in a single session. State‑run IRIB quoted ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei saying the talks were never expected to conclude quickly. Meanwhile, Tehran residents expressed a mix of scepticism and hope after weeks of air attacks that have left a nation of 93 million people reeling; more than 2,000 Iranians have been killed in the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict.In the United States, Vance reiterated that the delegation left with a "final and best offer" for Iran, emphasizing that Washington had communicated its position repeatedly during the talks. He cited multiple conversations with President Donald Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Central Command head Brad Cooper. Trump, however, maintained that the US had already "won" on the battlefield by eliminating Iranian leaders and key infrastructure, stating that a deal would not alter the outcome.The US military reported that two destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz ahead of planned mine‑clearing operations – a first since hostilities began – though Iran’s state media claimed the joint command denied the movement.Academic David Des Roches of the Thayer Marshall Institute told Al Jazeera that while Washington clarified its stance, it did not shift its core demand: preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.In Lebanon, Israel continued strikes, claiming to have hit a "loaded and ready‑to‑launch rocket launcher" in Jouaiya, southern Lebanon. Protests have erupted in Beirut against any direct Israel‑Lebanon negotiations. The Lebanese Ministry of Public Health reported at least 2,020 deaths and 6,436 injuries from Israeli attacks since March 2.In Israel, Channel 12 reported that a drone launched from Lebanon triggered sirens in the Upper Galilee before being intercepted.The stalemate has kept global oil and gas prices soaring, underscoring the broader economic ripple effects of a war that shows no sign of abating.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Thursday that his cabinet has been directed to begin cease‑fire talks with Lebanon "as soon as possible", a day after Israel launched its largest‑scale offensive against the neighbour, resulting in over 300 fatalities and more than 1,150 injuries.Netanyahu said the request followed “repeated calls” from Beirut for direct dialogue, yet he reaffirmed that Israel will continue targeting Hezbollah. Analysts caution that the intensified strikes could undermine the US‑Iran cease‑fire negotiations slated to start Saturday in Pakistan.The heavy bombing on Wednesday was carried out without the customary warnings, just hours after the United States and Iran announced a two‑week cease‑fire in the broader US‑Israel‑Iran conflict that began on 28 February. While attacks persisted into Friday, their intensity had lessened, and Hezbollah responded with missile fire into Israeli territory.Experts suggest the Wednesday onslaught was designed to disrupt Tehran’s diplomatic overtures, as Iran has insisted that any negotiations must be predicated on a halt to hostilities against both Iran and its ally Hezbollah.Hezbollah, which originated as a resistance movement to Israel’s 18‑year occupation of southern Lebanon (1982‑2000), now functions as both a political party and a formidable armed group—described as comparable to a medium‑sized army and stronger than the Lebanese military.Both Israeli and Lebanese officials have signalled a willingness to engage in peace talks, but Israel’s ongoing bombardment fuels scepticism. Netanyahu reiterated that disarming Hezbollah remains a top priority, even as he ordered the commencement of negotiations.Israeli army chief Eyal Zamir warned on X that the Israeli Defence Forces will continue to fight Hezbollah with “great intensity” and are prepared to resume full‑scale operations if required.Lebanese Prime Minister Joseph Aoun welcomed the prospect of talks, yet Beirut has insisted that any negotiations must occur only after a complete halt to Israeli attacks.The United States is reportedly applying pressure on Israel to curb its campaign. According to a Wall Street Journal report, former President Donald Trump called Netanyahu to urge an end to the bombing, a message echoed by Vice President JD Vance, who said Israel had agreed to “check itself” in Lebanon. European allies, notably Germany and France, have also called for an immediate cessation of hostilities.Hezbollah, which holds 15 of Lebanon’s 128 parliamentary seats, has categorically rejected any dialogue with Israel. Analysts note that Iran’s insistence on including Lebanon in the cease‑fire agreement could strain relations with the Lebanese government, which seeks a greater say in any war‑time decisions.Iran’s 10‑point peace proposal to the United States explicitly demands that Israel halt attacks on all Iranian allies, including Hezbollah, for the cease‑fire to hold. Continued Israeli strikes are therefore viewed as a “grave violation” of Tehran’s red lines and could jeopardise the fragile truce.Confusion persists over whether Lebanon was part of the US‑Iran cease‑fire deal. While Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif affirmed that the agreement covered “everywhere including Lebanon,” U.S. officials, including Trump and Vance, later claimed Lebanon was not included, leading to mixed messages on the ground.As displaced Lebanese begin returning home, the uncertainty surrounding the cease‑fire’s scope underscores the complex web of regional actors—Israel, Hezbollah, Iran, the United States, and Pakistan—each influencing the prospects for a sustainable peace.

The United States team landed in Islamabad on Friday, gearing up for Saturday’s planned cease‑fire talks with Iran aimed at pausing the ongoing US‑Israel‑Iran conflict.New friction erupted on Friday when senior officials from both sides exchanged conflicting accounts of a 10‑point Iranian proposal that underpinned Tuesday’s temporary pause in hostilities.Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned on X that two critical measures—a cease‑fire in Lebanon and the release of Iran’s blocked assets—remain unfulfilled, insisting they must be addressed before negotiations can proceed.Ghalibaf, who is slated to attend the summit alongside Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, echoed the Iranian military’s joint command warning that its “fingers are on the trigger” after what it described as repeated “breaches of trust” by the United States and Israel.Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump escalated rhetoric, telling the New York Post that the U.S. is loading ships with the “best weapons ever made” and will employ them “very effectively” if a deal is not reached. In subsequent Truth Social posts, he dismissed Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz as a “short‑term extortion” and claimed the Iranians are “alive today only to negotiate.”The Trump administration credits Tuesday’s cease‑fire agreement with averting a larger U.S. escalation, yet it has not disclosed the exact framework agreed upon, noting it differs from Iran’s published 10‑point plan.Analysts point to substantial gaps between the parties on several fronts: Iran’s future control of the Strait of Hormuz, the status of frozen Iranian assets, the trajectory of Iran’s nuclear program, and Israel’s ongoing offensive in Lebanon.U.S. and Israeli officials assert that a Lebanese cease‑fire was never part of the deal, contradicting Iran and Pakistan’s position. Nonetheless, President Trump told an Israeli reporter that he urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to make Israeli operations against Hezbollah “more low‑key” ahead of the talks.Israeli strikes continued, killing at least 300 people nationwide on Wednesday—the deadliest day of the offensive—while Al Jazeera’s correspondent reported no slowdown in southern Lebanon’s fighting. Kuwait also reported intercepting seven drones launched from Iran into its airspace within 24 hours.Despite the heightened rhetoric, U.S. Vice President JD Vance expressed optimism, stating he expects a “positive” outcome from the negotiations and that he has received “pretty clear guidelines” from President Trump. Vance emphasized that the United States is ready to extend an “open hand” to Iran if it negotiates in good faith, but warned that any attempt to “play us” would meet a “non‑receptive” negotiating team.Vance’s leadership reflects a non‑interventionist strand of the Trump administration, stepping in as Iran’s trust in special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son‑in‑law Jared Kushner has eroded. Witkoff and Kushner previously headed two rounds of indirect talks on Iran’s nuclear program, both of which collapsed—first after Israel launched a 12‑day war on Iran in June 2025, and again after the latest war erupted on February 28.

Delta Air Lines chief executive Ed Bastian told investors that customers should expect higher airfares as oil prices climb in response to the ongoing US‑Israel conflict with Iran. The carrier has already absorbed an additional $330 million in fuel costs and anticipates a further $2 billion increase in fuel expenses for the current quarter. Despite the cost pressure, Delta forecasts a 10% rise in revenue, citing robust passenger demand that it describes as a "healthy" travel environment. Bastian noted that the surge in demand is especially strong among affluent travelers who continue to purchase premium‑class seats. Other U.S. airlines have begun raising baggage fees, attributing the move to volatile fuel markets. Bastian suggested that such fee hikes could become a permanent feature of airline pricing, adding that "at this level of fuel pricing, it’s hard to call anything temporary." Oil markets showed a brief reprieve after Iran announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under a two‑week cease‑fire agreement with the United States. Brent crude fell from roughly $110 per barrel to just under $95 per barrel, yet prices remain about $20 per barrel above pre‑conflict levels. U.S. carriers have felt the ripple effects of the conflict. Since the start of the year, American Airlines shares have slipped about 25% and United Airlines about 13%. United’s CEO, Scott Kirby, warned that fares could climb as much as 20% if fuel costs stay elevated, even as airlines strive to keep demand strong. Delta’s stock, which surged 17% last year, has been flat so far in 2026, reflecting both consumer resilience and the headwinds from the conflict. The shares did gain 6% in early trading on Wednesday. To mitigate fuel consumption, Delta plans to trim capacity on lower‑load midweek and overnight routes, mirroring a similar capacity‑reduction announcement from United earlier in the month. Bastian also highlighted that Delta has benefited from a "K‑shaped" economic recovery, where wealthier consumers continue to spend on travel while lower‑income households curb discretionary spending. "Our customers at the top of the K are still investing in travel," he told CNBC, emphasizing that premium travel remains a priority for this segment.

Pakistan reaffirmed its commitment to steer the United States and Iran back to the negotiating table, even as it faces "obstacles" that were not disclosed by Foreign Office spokesperson Tahir Andrabi during a weekly briefing in Islamabad.The statement came hours after U.S. President Donald Trump warned he would bomb Iran "back to the Stone Ages" if Tehran rejected Washington’s peace terms, underscoring the volatile backdrop to Pakistan’s diplomatic push.Andrabi emphasized that Pakistan will continue to "promote facilitation and dialogue" and is working to create conditions for meaningful negotiations among relevant stakeholders. He noted that both Washington and Tehran view Pakistan as a neutral intermediary.In a tangible sign of confidence, Iran has permitted 20 Pakistani‑flagged vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Andrabi described this as "a harbinger of peace" and a positive step for regional stability, though he did not confirm whether any ships have already sailed.The Hormuz corridor has been largely blocked since Iran curtailed oil and gas shipments after the outbreak of the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict on February 28, driving up energy prices and straining economies across the region.High‑level contact between Islamabad and Tehran continues. Andrabi cited a March 28 call between Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, during which both leaders stressed the need to "build trust" and praised Pakistan’s "supportive role for peace".Regional diplomacy intensified after Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar returned from Beijing, where he met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. The two sides produced a joint five‑point initiative calling for an immediate ceasefire, urgent diplomatic engagement, and the restoration of normal maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.Andrabi said the China‑Pakistan proposal has been shared with the United States, Iran and other stakeholders, receiving appreciation "across the region and beyond". The plan aligns with outcomes from a four‑nation ministerial meeting in Islamabad that included Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt.Despite a hairline fracture sustained during the Islamabad talks, Dar travelled to Beijing, underscoring Pakistan’s strategic partnership with China. He later announced that Pakistan is ready to host direct US‑Iran negotiations in the coming days, a proposal reiterated by Andrabi at the briefing.While Pakistan positions itself as a facilitator, Andrabi acknowledged that Iran has so far limited mediation to indirect messages and has not committed to direct talks, stating, "Iran, as a sovereign country, determines its own policies."In a separate diplomatic track, Pakistan sent senior officials to Urumqi, China, for discussions with Afghanistan – the first substantive contact since Islamabad launched cross‑border strikes in late February. Andrabi stressed that Afghanistan must demonstrate "visible and verifiable actions" against terrorist groups operating from its territory.Pakistan continues its Operation Ghazab lil‑Haq, launched on February 26 to target terrorist sanctuaries in Afghanistan after alleged cross‑border fire from Taliban forces. Following a five‑day Eid‑ul‑Fitr pause, the operation remains ongoing.Islamabad accuses the Taliban‑run Kabul government of allowing the Tehrik‑i‑Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to use Afghan soil for attacks inside Pakistan, a claim the Afghan side denies. China has also facilitated Pakistan‑Afghanistan engagement, hosting meetings in Beijing and Kabul earlier in the year.