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In a stark address delivered as the cease‑fire in the Iran conflict teetered, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that the war will leave a permanent scar on the global economy, slowing growth beyond the IMF’s original projections for 2026. Georgieva noted that, had the hostilities not erupted six weeks ago, the Fund would have been poised to raise its 2026 growth outlook. Instead, even the most optimistic scenario now entails a downgrade, and a swift return to pre‑war conditions appears unlikely. The uncertainty surrounding the cease‑fire—exacerbated by divergent positions of Washington and Tehran—has already pushed oil prices higher, reflecting fears of continued disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital conduit for world energy supplies. According to the IMF’s upcoming World Economic Outlook, the conflict’s “scarring effects” will translate into lower living standards worldwide. The Fund had previously forecast global growth of 3.1% in 2026, a modest slowdown from 3.2% in 2025, buoyed by a tech‑driven investment surge. Georgieva emphasized that the war arrived when the economy was riding “considerable momentum” from technology investment and supportive financial markets. She outlined the mechanisms of damage: damaged infrastructure, supply‑chain interruptions, eroded confidence, and prolonged uncertainty over oil and gas production in the region. These factors will depress growth regardless of whether a peace agreement is ultimately reached. Georgieva highlighted that the most vulnerable will be net oil‑importing nations, poorer economies and small island states, which stand to feel the brunt of higher energy costs and reduced trade flows. She urged governments to avoid unilateral measures such as export bans or price controls, warning that such actions could "pour gasoline on the fire" and further destabilise markets. With many countries already carrying elevated debt levels and higher borrowing costs, the IMF chief called for targeted, temporary assistance to protect the most at‑risk households. She cautioned against broad tax cuts or blanket energy subsidies, which could stoke inflation and strain fragile public finances. Central banks, she added, should keep policy rates steady while remaining ready to act against inflationary pressures. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who also chairs the Financial Stability Board, echoed the IMF’s concerns, describing the conflict as a "very big shock" that has heightened market volatility. He stressed that the situation remains fluid and that policymakers must stay vigilant. Overall, the IMF’s message is clear: the Iran war will reshape the global growth trajectory for the foreseeable future, and coordinated, prudent policy responses are essential to mitigate its lasting impact.

As the 2026 local and regional elections draw nearer, the spectre of Trussonomics looms large over the British political landscape. From the Conservatives to the Greens, parties are unveiling extravagant fiscal promises that they claim can be funded by cuts elsewhere or additional borrowing, while insisting the broader economy will remain unharmed. Critics warn that any adverse effects will inevitably be shifted onto people and businesses outside the parties' core constituencies, effectively socialising the risk. Only Keir Starmer and his Labour cabinet appear to resist the pressure to re‑engineer the economy without acknowledging inevitable spill‑overs or extra costs. Former Prime Minister Liz Truss famously pledged £45 bn of tax cuts, financed through extra borrowing and so‑called welfare “efficiencies”. The plan was pitched as a catalyst for an entrepreneurial surge that would lift the UK out of a prolonged period of low productivity. Heading into May’s local polls, the Conservatives are touting a new “big‑spending” agenda after recent welfare cuts, highlighted by a headline pledge to shrink the welfare bill by £23 bn. Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride declared that the “culture of ‘something for nothing’ must end, now”. Green Party leader Zack Polanski has softened some of his party’s more radical proposals, yet the manifesto remains vague. Earlier drafts featured a litany of “free lunches”, signalling an ambition to raise taxes by **more than £170 bn a year** by the end of the next parliament. Key components of the Green plan include a £90 bn annual carbon tax and a matching increase in day‑to‑day public spending, alongside a proposed £90 bn boost to the capital‑spending budget (raising it from £160 bn to £250 bn per year). Reform UK has embraced Trussonomics with gusto, promising to raise the income‑tax threshold from £12,570 to £20,000 – a move that would cost the exchequer **over £40 bn each year**. Underlying many of these pledges is a belief that the UK can reverse a century of economic decline with a “magician’s wand”, ignoring potential repercussions for financial markets, trading partners, and a rapidly disintegrating global order. While the article briefly references the United States and France, the French electorate’s recent rejection of similarly flamboyant policies in local elections serves as a cautionary tale: voters in key cities like Paris and Marseille opted for centrist candidates over the radical platforms of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally and Jean‑Luc Mélenchon’s LFI. The broader context is a decade marked by two major wars, a quantum technological shift, and accelerating climate change – none of which offer quick‑fix solutions. Labour’s economic strategy, championed by Rachel Reeves, hinges on an early‑parliament spending surge intended to generate growth before the next general election. However, the damage inflicted by the previous government is still being reassessed, with the public‑finance gap now appearing larger than the £22 bn initially highlighted by Reeves. Labour still holds considerable funds earmarked for investment, but bureaucratic inertia in Whitehall hampers swift action, and Starmer bears responsibility for this paralysis. Demonstrating tangible returns on public spending – with HS2 currently the sole benchmark – could justify future tax increases on higher earners, provided the money is not wasted. In an uncertain world, the article argues that rational, evidence‑based governance is preferable to “outlandish initiatives” that create a multitude of losers. Ultimately, the piece concludes that Truss’s experiment was a disaster not merely because of the misguided belief that tax cuts can drive sustainable growth in a mature economy, but because it relied on an imagined “escape hatch” to propel the UK to a higher economic plane.

Analysts say that more than two years of relentless campaigns against Gaza, the Houthis, Lebanon and now Iran have reshaped Israel’s politics, economy and social fabric.Washington, rather than Jerusalem, is likely to decide the ultimate outcome of the conflict that Israeli leaders describe as an “existential battle” with Tehran.According to the Bank of Israel, the cumulative cost of these wars has reached 352 billion shekels (about $112 bn), which translates to roughly 300 million shekels ($96 m) per day. The financial pressure is compounded by the International Court of Justice hearing credible genocide accusations and the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrants for the prime minister and a former defence minister.Domestically, Israelis endure frequent air‑raid alerts and school closures, while many families juggle work and shelter duties. Yet a poll by the Israel Democracy Institute in late March showed that 78 % of Jewish Israelis still support continuing the war, even as a majority doubt that Washington and Israeli planners have fully grasped Tehran’s capabilities.Political commentator Dahlia Scheindlin told Al Jazeera that a “graveness” has settled over the population, noting a grim determination to press on despite exhaustion.Israel’s right‑wing coalition, led by figures such as National Security Minister Itamar Ben‑Gvir and ultra‑Orthodox Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, has pushed through a controversial death‑penalty law targeting Palestinians and approved a record $271 bn budget. The budget allocates substantial funds to ultra‑Orthodox and settler communities, a move described by critics as an attempt to shore up Prime Minister Netanyahu’s waning support.Internationally, the United Nations, European Union and several Muslim‑majority states have condemned the new death‑penalty legislation, though Israel has so far avoided direct sanctions.Economists warn that the war’s fiscal impact extends beyond defence spending. A Le Monde analysis highlighted rising defence outlays, lost productivity from reservist mobilisation, and dampened consumer activity. While temporary tax cuts have mitigated fuel‑price spikes caused by Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, political economist Shir Hever cautions that Israel’s reliance on imported fuel means any relief is short‑lived.Hever likens the current economic trajectory to that of a “totalitarian state,” where military expenses are pursued arbitrarily, ignoring broader economic stability.Ultimately, the war’s duration may hinge more on U.S. policy than Israeli strategy. When asked by Newsmax about progress toward its goals, Prime Minister Netanyahu could only claim the effort was “halfway” achieved.

India has taken a significant step to shield its consumers from the impact of rising global energy prices, slashing fuel taxes in the face of increasing tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran. The move aims to prevent a sharp increase in fuel prices that could have been triggered by the crisis.Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri announced on Friday that the government had decided to reduce petrol duties from 13 rupees ($0.14) per litre to 3 rupees ($0.032) per litre. Additionally, the 10-rupee (0.11) per litre duty on diesel has been completely removed, effective immediately.The decision comes as oil prices have surged past $100 per barrel following Iran's near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz after Israel and the US launched attacks on February 28. India, being the world's third-largest crude importer, relies heavily on this passageway for its crude oil supply, with about 40 percent of its crude coming through the Strait of Hormuz.Despite concerns about potential shortages, authorities have assured that there is no shortage of crude and that current reserves will cover 74 days. The government also moved to quash rumours of an impending lockdown, with Minister Puri stating that such claims are 'completely false' and that India is 'resilient.'The impact of the tax cuts on pump prices for ordinary consumers remains uncertain. Analysts suggest that oil companies previously selling at a loss are likely to benefit from the tax reductions. According to economist Madhavi Arora from Emkay Global, the annualised fiscal hit from these cuts is estimated at nearly 1.55 trillion rupees ($16.3bn).In a related move, finance authorities have reimposed export taxes on diesel and aviation fuel, raising them to 21.5 rupees ($0.23) and 29.5 ($0.31) rupees per litre respectively. This comes after the taxes were previously scrapped in 2024.