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The Lead: Iran's Diplomatic HardeningTehran, Iran – Iran's authorities and state media project that they are less interested than before the war in negotiations with the United States if they go beyond their accepted terms, as mediated talks failed to materialise in Pakistan.Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met senior Pakistani officials in Islamabad on Saturday and left for Oman, to be later bound for Russia. The top diplomat, who was not joined by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf like in a previous round of negotiations earlier this month, said he was "yet to see if the US is truly serious about diplomacy".The Failed Negotiation in PakistanEnvoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner had been expected in Pakistan after the White House said Iran asked for a second round of direct negotiations, but US President Donald Trump cancelled the trip and said, "we have all the cards, they have none" while reiterating his claim about "infighting and confusion" among Iran's leadership."If they want to talk, all they have to do is call!!!" Trump wrote in an online post, continuing to put the onus on Iran's leadership.Iran's Projected Unity Amidst US ClaimsAmid a state-imposed near-total internet shutdown in Iran, nearing two months, officials and the supporters of the Islamic Republic emphasise that they are united in opposing any concessions to Trump.The US president said earlier this week he was in "no rush" to reach an agreement with Iranian leadership, whom he claimed, without evidence, were "fighting like cats and dogs" among themselves.Since Trump highlighted the perceived fractures, military, security, judiciary and government authorities in Iran have been releasing synchronised messages with near-identical wording to proclaim absolute unity.Iran's Military Posturing and ThreatsThe Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Saturday afternoon that armed forces would retaliate against the US if it continues its "blockade, banditry and piracy" in Iran's southern waters."We are prepared and determined to monitor the behaviour and movement of the enemies in the region and maintain management and control of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, and to inflict more severe damages on the American-Zionist enemies in case of another aggression," read its statement.The IRGC on Saturday took a state television presenter to broadcast near two vessels seized days earlier in the strait to report that Iran exercised "total control" over the waterway.Domestic Show of Force and UnityThe authorities also claim that more than 30 million people – a third of Iran's total population – have registered in a state-run campaign to express readiness to "sacrifice" their lives if necessary, but they have not provided any documentation to prove this.The messages, circulated through state media and even using similar graphics and fonts but with different colours, claim that everyone in the country is "revolutionary" and exercises "complete obedience" to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.In a rally in downtown Tehran on Friday night, Meysam Motiei, a prominent state-backed religious singer with links to the supreme leader's office, told the crowds that anyone stuck in factional infighting during times of war "has not grown up yet".Hardening Stance Against Nuclear NegotiationsIranian state media reports indicate that the US naval blockade of Iran's ports is undermining the ceasefire extended by Trump and allowing the more hardline voices in Tehran to come out on top.The Tasnim and Fars news agencies, affiliated with the IRGC, argued against allowing any nuclear negotiations to take place with the US, even though Trump and Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu started the war with the predominant goal of preventing a nuclear-armed Iran."The negotiations with the US are strictly to end the war, and Iran does not consider the nuclear issue to be part of the talks," Tasnim said, claiming that time was not on Washington's side due to the tumult in global markets resulting from the war.Regional Military Buildup and Escalation RisksIsrael's Defence Minister Israel Katz earlier this week adopted Trump's apocalyptic messaging, and said armed forces are awaiting a greenlight from the US to "return Iran to the age of darkness and stone by blowing up central energy and electricity facilities and crushing national economic infrastructure".There are currently three US aircraft carriers and their supporting vessels in the Middle East region, according to the US military, which marks the first time this has happened since the buildup to the 2003 invasion of Iraq.Khamenei has not directly commented on more negotiations, but Ali Khezrian, another representative of Tehran in the hardline-dominated parliament, told state media on Thursday that Khamenei was "opposed to any extension of negotiations" under threats from the US and Israel.Civilian Infrastructure Under ThreatThe government of relatively moderate President Masoud Pezeshkian has signalled concern about the potential impacts of systematic targeting of more civilian infrastructure, especially power plants, in case the war continues."We have a simple request from the people: to reduce their consumption of power and energy. For now, we have no need for these dear people to sacrifice their lives, but we need to control consumption," the president said on Saturday. "They have hit our infrastructure and blockaded us, so the people become dissatisfied."Mohammad Allahdad, the head of Tavanir, the government-owned mother company for development and operation of Iran's power grid, told state television that it would pay a reward to citizens who would report any theft and illegal use of electricity.Future Outlook: Stalemate or Escalation?First Vice President Mohammadreza Aref said, "We will build Iran back more glorious" through unity after previous infrastructure attacks that hit oil and gas facilities, steel producers, petrochemical firms, aluminium factories, energy facilities, as well as airports, naval ports, bridges and railway networks.The government reopened Tehran's Imam Khomeini Airport for limited foreign-bound flights on Saturday, including those taking people to the Hajj pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia, despite the potential of war resuming.With both sides digging in their positions and showing little flexibility, the region appears to be heading toward either a prolonged stalemate or a potential escalation that could have far-reaching consequences for global energy markets and security.

On day 57 of the Iran‑Israel‑U.S. war, senior U.S. envoys are slated to travel to Pakistan for back‑channel talks, coinciding with the arrival of Iran’s foreign minister in Islamabad. The diplomatic push occurs against a backdrop of frozen Iranian crypto assets, fresh sanctions, an expanded U.S. carrier presence in the Gulf, and tightening energy markets.US Envoys Set to Arrive in Pakistan Amid Stalled Iran NegotiationsSteve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will depart for Islamabad on Saturday to explore a possible return to the negotiating table.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has already landed in Islamabad, signaling Pakistan’s role as a regional mediator.The talks come as U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth warned that Iran still has an “open window” to abandon its nuclear ambitions.Economic Leverage: $344 Million Crypto Freeze Targets IranThe Treasury, led by Scott Bessent, froze $344 million in cryptocurrency linked to Iranian entities to increase pressure amid energy‑supply disruptions.Washington also announced sanctions on a major China‑based refinery and roughly 40 shipping firms involved in moving Iranian oil.U.S. officials ruled out any extension of waivers for Russian or Iranian oil transits, tightening the financial squeeze.Regional Diplomatic Activity and Military PosturingEuropean Council President Antonio Costa called for the immediate, unrestricted reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.Pakistan’s mediators expressed “cautious optimism,” noting signs of progress despite the lack of concrete talks in Islamabad.In the Gulf, two drones launched from Iraq struck northern Kuwaiti border posts, prompting an Iraqi investigation.The U.S. now has three aircraft carriers operating in the Middle East—the first such concentration since the 2003 Iraq invasion.Energy Markets React: Oil, Gas, and Market TightnessThe International Energy Agency warned that liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets will remain “tight” through 2026‑2027.Brent crude edged above $105 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 1.5% to $94.40.The S&P 500 rose 0.8%, hitting an all‑time high as investors priced in both risk and the potential for a diplomatic breakthrough.What Comes Next? Scenarios for De‑Escalation or Further ConflictOptimistic scenario: Successful Pakistan‑facilitated talks lead to a renewed nuclear‑non‑proliferation framework and a phased lifting of sanctions.Stalemate scenario: Negotiations stall, prompting the U.S. to increase economic pressure and maintain its carrier presence, risking further regional confrontations.Escalation scenario: Failure to reopen Hormuz or a misstep in the Gulf could trigger broader military engagement, driving oil prices higher and deepening market volatility.

US Seizure of Iranian Container Ship Marks New Hormuz FlashpointOn April 20, 2026 US forces opened fire on, then boarded, the Iranian‑flagged container vessel Touska in the northern Arabian Sea, just outside the strategic chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz. The action follows a US‑imposed naval blockade of Iranian ports and mirrors the maritime confrontations of the 1980s “Tanker War”.Revisiting the 1980s Iran‑Iraq Tanker WarA quick look at the original conflict helps explain today’s stakes:1980 – Iraq invades Iran, sparking an eight‑year war.1984 – Iraq begins targeting Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf.1987 – US launches Operation Earnest Will, re‑flagging Kuwaiti tankers for protection.April 1988 – US frigate USS Samuel B. Roberts damaged by an Iranian mine; Operation Praying Mantis follows.August 1988 – UN‑brokered cease‑fire ends the tanker attacks.During that period, attacks killed 116 merchant sailors, wounded 167, and pushed insurance premiums skyward, but global oil demand kept the market flowing.Oil Market Shock: Price Swings and Shipping DisruptionsCurrent data show the Hormuz standoff is already reshaping energy markets:Shipping volume through the strait fell 95% after Iran’s March 4 closure.Brent crude peaked at $119 per barrel in early April, later settling around $106.US Central Command reports 33 Iran‑linked vessels redirected since the blockade began.Iran’s IRGC has imposed tolls on “friendly” ships, limiting passage to vessels from Malaysia, China, Egypt, South Korea, India and Pakistan.These figures underscore how a relatively small maritime disruption can trigger outsized price volatility.Strategic Implications for Global Trade and Regional SecurityThe modern Hormuz crisis differs from the 1980s in several key ways:Unlike the 1980s, NATO allies such as the UK are refusing to join US minesweeping or escort missions, fearing escalation.Iran’s IRGC now possesses a more robust asymmetric capability, including missiles, drones and cyber tools, while still constrained by sanctions.US minesweeping capacity in the Gulf has dwindled, with several dedicated vessels decommissioned last year.Iran’s leadership, including First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref, signals a willingness to keep the strait closed until the US lifts its blockade.Analysts warn that prolonged closure could force global oil shipments onto longer, costlier routes, amplifying supply‑chain risks for Europe and Asia.What the Next Weeks May Hold for Hormuz and Global EnergyLooking ahead, several scenarios are plausible:Escalation – If the US expands interdictions, Iran may respond with missile strikes on commercial vessels, prompting a broader naval showdown.Negotiated reopening – Diplomatic pressure from oil‑importing nations could coax Tehran into a limited reopening, perhaps under UN monitoring.Prolonged stalemate – Continued US‑Iran brinkmanship may keep the strait partially shut, sustaining high oil prices and encouraging alternative shipping lanes.Stakeholders—from energy traders to shipping insurers—should monitor US‑Iran communications, IRGC naval movements, and any UN‑mediated talks as the situation evolves.

US President Donald Trump has made a series of claims about concessions secured from Iran ahead of possible ceasefire talks, including that Tehran has agreed to keep the Strait of Hormuz open and turn over its nuclear stockpile.On Friday, Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran had agreed to open — and “never close” — the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil shipments. He also claimed that Iran would turn over its “nuclear dust” and that Israel would be “prohibited” from launching attacks in Lebanon.Iran has confirmed reopening the Strait of Hormuz for the “duration” of the current pause in fighting, which is set to end early next week. However, officials have pushed back on claims regarding its nuclear stockpile, with a source telling Al Jazeera negotiations remain at a preliminary stage.Despite the outstanding questions, Trump struck a celebratory tone, calling Friday “A GREAT AND BRILLIANT DAY FOR THE WORLD!” He also told Bloomberg News that he expected talks to move forward on Sunday with a permanent ceasefire deal in sight.“We’re not seeing the full picture,” Yezid Sayigh, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center, told Al Jazeera, pointing to Trump’s penchant for hyperbole and several unresolved issues. “But this does suggest a positive momentum towards something that may end up being a comprehensive deal.”Sayigh added that Trump could have ulterior motives in striking an upbeat tone, at a time when the chokehold in the Strait of Hormuz is driving up prices for everything from fuel to fertiliser.“It is very interesting that President Trump is putting such a positive spin on things, not only to encourage markets and talk down oil prices and talk stock market prices up,” Sayigh said. “But also, I suspect, because he’s preparing the ground for more revelations about what is being negotiated with Iran.”

The Democratic Republic of the Congo and the M23 rebel coalition commenced a new round of negotiations in Switzerland on Monday, with mediation provided by the United States and Qatar. The talks aim to halt the persistent violence that has continued despite a December peace accord signed in Washington.During the Geneva session, both parties signed an interim peace‑monitoring mechanism, according to Radio France Internationale. The framework creates a joint body tasked with tracking humanitarian and security developments and flagging any ceasefire violations. Representatives from the DRC government, the M23 coalition, and the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) will staff the mechanism.Al Jazeera correspondent Alain Uaykani, reporting from Goma, described the situation on the ground as "very fragile," with each side accusing the other of breaching previous truces. He highlighted the town of Minembwe in South Kivu, where thousands of civilians are caught in crossfire between rival armed groups.Local residents hope that mediators will press both sides to honor the newly‑established monitoring body, after a series of failed agreements. The conflict has intensified since early 2025, when the M23 seized large territories, including the provincial capitals Goma and Bukavu.In December, Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame signed a "historic" peace and economic agreement in Washington, a move that was widely criticized as overlooking Rwanda's alleged support for the M23 rebels. Separate Qatar‑mediated talks have also taken place, yet clashes resumed almost immediately after the December deal.Human Rights Watch issued a statement on Tuesday condemning both parties for obstructing aid deliveries and preventing civilians from fleeing the highlands of South Kivu. Clementine de Montjoye, senior Great Lakes researcher at the organization, warned that the region faces a "dire humanitarian crisis" and that the conflict remains "vastly under‑reported."The newly‑formed monitoring mechanism, supported by MONUSCO, represents the latest diplomatic effort to stabilize eastern Congo and protect vulnerable populations, even as fighting continues to flare in the highland areas of South Kivu.

Pakistani officials have expressed confidence that a significant diplomatic breakthrough could emerge from the latest round of U.S.–Iran negotiations, with Islamabad intensifying its role as mediator in a conflict that has already claimed thousands of lives. On Wednesday, a senior Pakistani delegation led by Army Chief Asim Munir landed in Tehran to deliver a message from Washington to Iranian leaders, according to Iran’s Press TV. The envoy was welcomed by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who thanked Pakistan for its "gracious hosting of dialogue" and indicated that groundwork is being laid for a second U.S.–Iran round of talks. Al Jazeera analyst Osama Bin Javaid noted that Pakistani officials anticipate a "major breakthrough on the nuclear front," with messages shuttling continuously between the two capitals. The core dispute centers on the length of any Iranian enrichment freeze—ranging from a proposed five‑year to a twenty‑year moratorium—and the disposition of Iran’s 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium. Options under discussion include exporting the material, diluting it to natural uranium, or reducing enrichment to a maximum of 3 %. Pakistan’s diplomatic push follows a stalled U.S.–Iran session in Islamabad that ended without a cease‑fire agreement. Mediators are now concentrating on three pivotal issues: the nuclear programme, control of the strategic Strait of Hormuz—which Tehran has effectively closed, driving up global oil prices—and compensation for wartime damages. The conflict, ignited by the United States and Israel on 28 February, has resulted in more than 3,000 Iranian deaths and prompted retaliatory strikes against Gulf states. It has also reignited hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, where over 2,000 casualties have been reported since early March. A cease‑fire declared on 8 April halted attacks in Iran and the Gulf, yet Israeli operations in southern Lebanon have persisted. Simultaneously, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif embarked on a regional tour to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey, a move described by Bin Javaid as a "double‑pronged strategy" aimed at neutralising opposition to a potential deal. According to the White House, President Donald Trump signalled optimism on Tuesday, suggesting the war could conclude within "an amazing two days" and that it is "very close to over." Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt later described the Pakistan‑facilitated talks as "productive and ongoing," adding that further negotiations are likely to take place in Islamabad. Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that message exchanges with the United States have continued via Pakistani channels, with spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei stating that Tehran’s positions have been communicated. Nevertheless, tensions linger. A U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz remains active; U.S. Central Command reported turning back nine vessels as of Wednesday. Iran’s military denounced the blockade as a breach of the cease‑fire, and the Iranian joint command chief, Ali Abdollahi, warned of possible retaliation by disrupting trade routes through the Red Sea, the Gulf and the Sea of Oman if the blockade persists.

As the clock ticked down to President Donald Trump’s 8 p.m. deadline to force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the six‑week Middle East conflict teetered on the brink of a far more devastating escalation.Trump’s rhetoric had escalated dramatically, with his Truth Social posts warning that the United States would unleash strikes capable of “decimating every bridge and power plant in Iran” and that “a whole civilisation will die tonight.” Legal experts labeled the language as bordering on a genocidal threat.Amid the rising tension, a series of rapid developments unfolded on Tuesday:12:06 GMT – Trump announced a plan to target Iran’s civilian infrastructure, promising total destruction of bridges and power facilities.15:21 GMT – Iranian media confirmed that US strikes hit Kharg Island, the nation’s primary oil‑export hub, but reported no significant damage.15:40 GMT – In the UN Security Council, China and Russia vetoed a Bahraini resolution aimed at protecting commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, arguing the draft was biased against Tehran.16:54 GMT – Qatar’s defence ministry reported a successful missile interception, while the United Arab Emirates warned of a barrage of missile and drone attacks.18:23 GMT – Iran’s envoy to Pakistan, Reza Amiri Moghadam, signalled a “step forward” after a “critical, sensitive stage,” praising Pakistan’s “positive and productive” peace efforts.19:17 GMT – Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif appealed to Trump to extend the deadline by two weeks, urging Tehran to keep the Strait open as a goodwill gesture.20:25 GMT – Iran warned it would target US and Gulf‑allied energy infrastructure, threatening to block regional oil and gas supplies for years.20:41 GMT – Joint US‑Israeli airstrikes struck the Amirkabir Petrochemical Plant in Mahshahr, Iran, prompting local assessments of damage.With less than ninety minutes remaining, diplomatic channels intensified. Pakistani officials, including the military chief Asim Munir, facilitated talks that culminated in a two‑week, double‑sided cease‑fire announced by Trump at 22:45 GMT. The United States claimed to have received a “workable” 10‑point proposal from Tehran.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi quickly confirmed the truce, stating Iran would honor it provided attacks on its territory ceased. Sharif then invited both Iranian and US delegations to Islamabad for further negotiations aimed at a permanent settlement.Early Wednesday, Trump’s tone shifted dramatically. In a Truth Social post he hailed the cease‑fire as a potential “Golden Age for the Middle East,” celebrating the pause in hostilities and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.The episode underscores how last‑minute diplomacy, spearheaded by Pakistan, averted a catastrophic escalation and opened a narrow window for a broader peace process in a region long mired in conflict.

Iran and the United States each declared a triumph after agreeing to a two‑week ceasefire that was announced just before President Donald Trump’s deadline to force Tehran’s surrender. The conflict, which began on 28 February, has already claimed 2,076 lives in U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran and has caused thousands more deaths across the region. The fighting has also shocked global energy markets, stranding oil tankers and pushing prices to unprecedented levels. Trump announced on Truth Social that the United States would halt bombing Iran after receiving a “workable” 10‑point ceasefire proposal, adding that “almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to.” Iran, for its part, said it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, even as some citizens denounced the government’s perceived capitulation. Both parties are set to resume Pakistan‑mediated talks in Islamabad on Friday, though analysts warn that earlier red lines may resurface. Key terms of the Tuesday agreement: the United States will suspend air strikes for two weeks, citing that it has already achieved its military objectives and is close to a “definitive agreement concerning long‑term peace.” Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, pledged to halt “defensive operations” and to allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, while also indicating willingness to fund reconstruction from fees collected on transiting ships. Domestic reaction in Iran remains volatile. University of Tehran professor Foad Izadi noted that the public’s pessimism stems from two prior escalations—June’s 12‑day war and the February 28 strikes—both of which occurred amid ongoing negotiations. Earlier demands: The United States had presented a 15‑point plan on 25 March, calling for a 30‑day ceasefire, immediate reopening of the Strait, Iran’s de‑commissioning of its nuclear facilities, a total ban on uranium enrichment, handover of nuclear stockpiles to the IAEA, cessation of support to regional proxies, strict limits on ballistic missiles, and a full lift of sanctions, among other items. Iran responded with a 10‑point proposal that emphasized a non‑aggression commitment from the United States, controlled passage through the Strait, acceptance of its enrichment programme, comprehensive sanctions relief, withdrawal of U.S. combat forces, compensation for war damages via shipping fees, and a binding UN Security Council resolution. Both sides have already made concessions. Iran moved from demanding a permanent ceasefire to accepting a two‑week pause, and it shifted from insisting on reparations to proposing reconstruction funding from Strait fees. The United States, meanwhile, has softened its demand for an “unconditional” Iranian surrender and has not reiterated its earlier insistence on dismantling Iran’s missile capabilities. One of the most contentious issues remains the status of Lebanon. While Pakistan’s prime minister said the ceasefire would extend to Lebanon, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denied any such inclusion, and Israel launched a major bombing campaign in Beirut shortly thereafter, killing hundreds. Looking ahead, analysts highlight that the United States is unlikely to concede on the complete withdrawal of its roughly 50,000 troops stationed across 19 Middle Eastern sites—a demand Tehran has placed on the table. The outcome of the upcoming talks will hinge on whether Washington can accommodate Tehran’s broader political and economic requests without compromising its strategic objectives.

Celebrations erupted in Tehran after officials announced a two‑week ceasefire with the United States, creating a window for diplomatic talks aimed at de‑escalating the regional conflict.Iran consented to suspend hostilities, with negotiations slated to begin on Friday in Pakistan. President Donald Trump pledged to halt military operations provided Tehran fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime corridor. Iran’s foreign minister added that safe passage through the strait will be coordinated with Iranian armed forces throughout the truce.The breakthrough followed a direct appeal by Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who urged Trump to extend his negotiation deadline and called on Iran to restore strait access.Iranian officials framed the ceasefire as a “victory”, asserting that their preconditions for talks were accepted and that Trump’s acknowledgment of progress on key disputes validates Tehran’s stance. They emphasized that national unity, patience, and military resilience were decisive factors.In their assessment, the earlier U.S.–Israeli strategy of targeting Iranian leadership failed, while the ensuing conflict demonstrated Iran’s capacity to sustain prolonged military operations.Trump, speaking to AFP, described the agreement as a “total and complete victory”, insisting that Iran’s uranium stockpiles would be “perfectly taken care of” under the deal and crediting China for facilitating the negotiations.Despite the truce, Democratic lawmakers announced they will continue impeachment efforts against Trump, condemning his rhetoric toward Iran as “genocidal” and “unhinged.”