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Analysts warn that the world is confronting the most severe energy shock since the 1970s, a looming global recession and a renewed surge in living‑cost pressures that are hitting the most vulnerable households hardest.Against a backdrop of sweltering Washington heat, the atmosphere at the International Monetary Fund’s spring meetings shifted dramatically as delegates confronted the fallout from the Iran war. The usual optimism about rising living standards was replaced by a palpable sense of unease.IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva addressed finance ministers and central‑bank governors, noting that “some countries are in panic” and urging that “the sooner it ends, the better for everybody.”Such gatherings are rarely venues for open geopolitical confrontation. Yet, as a record‑breaking April heatwave baked the capital, the mounting economic damage from the conflict could no longer be ignored.During a G20 breakfast that included U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and outgoing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, participants described the mood as somber, with frank discussions about the war’s ramifications.Former IMF deputy managing director Mohamed El‑Erian likened the session to a “twilight‑zone meeting,” identifying three looming shadows: the overall health of the global economy, the disproportionate impact on lesser‑discussed nations, and the paradox that the United States, as the war’s initiator, would suffer comparatively less.British Chancellor Rachel Reeves started her day with a jog alongside counterparts from Spain, Australia and New Zealand on the National Mall, posting an Instagram selfie captioned, “Friends that run together – work together.” The image underscored her resolve to confront the war’s economic fallout.Reeves had earlier condemned the conflict as a “mistake” and “folly,” arguing that the war had not enhanced global security and was driving up energy prices for UK families and businesses.In a one‑on‑one with Bessent near the White House, Reeves emphasized the urgency of the situation, noting that the UK, like many other nations, was feeling the pain of higher energy costs triggered by the conflict.Despite the tension, the UK and the United States continue to share deep interests in artificial intelligence, financial services and trade, though the British government signalled little tolerance for the Iranian regime.The IMF’s own warning that the war could precipitate a global recession singled out the United Kingdom as the “biggest G7 casualty,” highlighting the stakes for British growth forecasts.Observers noted Reeves’s vocal stance, recalling earlier disagreements between Bessent and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde that had remained behind closed doors.A cocktail reception at the British ambassador’s residence brought together senior diplomats and financiers—including Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and Barclays CEO CS Venkatakrishnan—where transatlantic friction was a hot topic, just weeks before King Charles’s state visit to the United States.Meanwhile, revelations about former ambassador Peter Mandelson’s vetting process added another layer of political strain for the UK government.Before the war, the IMF agenda focused on global cooperation, AI adoption, job creation and poverty eradication. The conflict has now complicated each of these priorities, especially the goal of coordinated international action.Former UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband observed that many nations are now “hedging against American decisions,” acknowledging the United States’ outsized role—about 25% of the global economy—while noting its recent retreat from several forums.The irony was not lost on participants: the meetings were held in institutions born out of U.S. leadership after World War II to prevent the economic chaos of the 1930s, yet they now convene amid a war that threatens similar turmoil.Economists also recognized that real policy leverage sits “two blocks away,” behind the security cordons surrounding the White House, casting doubt on the ability of the IMF and World Bank to influence the conflict directly.Amid the uncertainty, the rapid growth of AI—exemplified by Anthropic’s Mythos model—offers a glimmer of economic resilience, but most countries cannot afford to sever ties with the United States entirely.El‑Erian summed up the dilemma: “People want to go long the private sector and short the mess, but it’s almost impossible to do.”

The United Kingdom's decision to ban Israelis from attending the Royal College of Defence Studies (RCDS) over Israel's actions in Gaza has sparked concern within the college about its reputation. The Ministry of Defence (MOD) announced the ban in September after Israel planned a major ground assault on Gaza City.The British government made the decision amid widespread condemnation of Israel's escalation of the war. Previously unreported correspondence shows that the move prompted discussion within the RCDS about potential harm to its reputation as an institution that welcomes students of all backgrounds.RCDS commandant George Norton asked a senior military official, Tom Copinger-Symes, for help in shaping the public narrative while a government minister was preparing to answer a question about the ban in the UK's upper house of parliament. Norton sought to ensure that the public understood the college played no role in the decision.In an email, Norton told Copinger-Symes that it would be important for the government minister to highlight that the college does not invite or select participants in its courses, and that invitations were a government-to-government matter. He emphasized that the college's reputation as a welcoming institution could be harmed by the perception that it was deciding which countries to invite or not.The emails, obtained by Al Jazeera via a Freedom of Information request, reveal the college's efforts to distance itself from the government's decision. The MOD spokesperson stated that decisions about military education and training are made on a case-by-case basis and following robust assessment of benefits and risks.The UK-Israel relationship has been strained due to Israel's actions in Gaza, where over 72,000 Palestinians have been killed since Israel launched its military operation. The RCDS did not respond to a request for comment.

President Donald Trump declared that the U.S. Navy will commence a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz immediately after peace talks between Washington and Tehran in Pakistan ended without an agreement. In a social‑media post, Trump labeled Iran’s actions as “extortion” and warned that American warships would hunt down and interdict any ship that has paid Iran a toll to traverse the waterway, while also beginning mine‑clearing operations. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard responded that civilian vessels may still cross the strait under “specific regulations,” but any military craft attempting entry would be deemed a breach of the cease‑fire and would be “dealt with severely.” Since the February 28 war launched by the United States and Israel, Iran has effectively taken control of the strategic chokepoint, a route that carries about 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Traffic has now dwindled to a trickle, sending shockwaves through the global economy and raising alarm among Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. Al Jazeera correspondents noted that the rhetoric from the White House has amplified “alarm bells” across the GCC, where leaders had hoped the two‑week ceasefire would evolve into a longer‑term peace framework. Oman’s foreign minister, Badr Albusaidi, urged on social media that the ceasefire be extended and that all parties make “painful concessions” to avoid a return to war. Trump’s statements also included a stark threat: any Iranian forces that fire on U.S. or “peaceful” vessels would be “blown to hell.” He claimed the blockade would involve “other countries” and that the United Kingdom, along with “a couple of other nations,” were dispatching minesweeper vessels to assist – a claim the British government has not confirmed. Domestic criticism emerged quickly. Democratic Senator Mark Warner told CNN he “doesn’t see how blockading the strait will compel Iran to open it,” questioning the strategic logic behind the move. Iran denied U.S. allegations that two of its warships had recently passed through the strait for mine‑clearing, warning that any military vessel attempting such a passage would meet a “strong response.” Tehran officials have floated the idea of instituting a post‑conflict toll system for vessels using the waterway, a prospect that could further entrench Iran’s leverage over global energy flows. Analysts warn that heightened tensions in the Hormuz corridor could push oil prices higher, amplifying inflationary pressures worldwide. As the situation unfolds, mediators continue to press both sides to resume diplomatic talks and avoid a broader escalation.

The British government announced that it is putting on hold a bill that would return the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, after President Donald Trump signaled a lack of US support for the arrangement.A UK spokesperson told Reuters and AFP that the deal would only move forward with American backing, stating, "We have always said we would only proceed with the deal if it has US support." The statement added that the islands, particularly Diego Garcia, remain a critical military asset for both nations.Last May, London and Port Louis unveiled a plan under which Britain would cede full sovereignty of the 60‑plus islands to Mauritius while retaining a 99‑year lease on Diego Garcia to preserve the US‑run base that anchors American power in the Indian Ocean.Trump dismissed the proposal in January as an "act of great stupidity," arguing that relinquishing the archipelago would undermine the strategic partnership. In response, the UK reiterated that the base’s long‑term security is the primary reason for the agreement and that it continues to engage with both Washington and Mauritius.At an Indian Ocean conference in Mauritius, Foreign Minister Dhananjay Ramful pledged that his government would "spare no effort" to pursue every diplomatic and legal avenue to complete the decolonisation of the Chagos archipelago, calling the issue a matter of justice.After an initial softening of tone following a February conversation with Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Trump later resumed his criticism on Truth Social, labeling the cession a "big mistake" and a "blight on our Great Ally." The dispute has unfolded against a backdrop of strained US‑UK relations over the ongoing US‑Israel conflict in Iran and the UK's leadership of a 30‑nation coalition protecting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz without US participation.Former senior civil servant Simon McDonald told BBC Radio that Trump’s hostility has forced the agreement into a "deep freeze," noting that when the US president is openly opposed, the British government must reassess its position.Britain has administered the Chagos Islands since 1814, even after Mauritius gained independence in the 1960s. The Diego Garcia base has been pivotal in US operations in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. The displaced Chagossian community continues to seek compensation, and a 2019 International Court of Justice advisory opinion recommended that the archipelago be returned to Mauritius.

The United Kingdom's Defence Minister, John Healey, announced that British forces had successfully tracked and deterred three Russian submarines in a covert operation within UK waters in the High North maritime region. This area is strategically important due to its proximity to key shipping routes and crucial undersea cables.Healey revealed that the month-long operation, which involved British warships and military aircraft, did not find evidence of Russian vessels damaging undersea infrastructure. However, the decision to publicly disclose the operation was made to 'call out' Russian activity and send a clear message to Russian President Vladimir Putin.“We see you, we see your activity over our cables and pipelines. And you should know that any attempt to damage them will not be tolerated, and will have serious consequences,” Healey stated. The British Defence Ministry identified the submarines as an Akula-class Russian nuclear-powered attack submarine and two specialist submarines from Russia's Main Directorate of Deep Sea Research (GUGI), which defence experts consider one of Moscow's most secret facilities.The Russian embassy in London rejected the British government's claims that its submarines posed a threat to undersea cables. According to Healey, the Russian attack submarine was likely a decoy to distract from the two specialist vessels designed to survey underwater infrastructure during peacetime and sabotage it in conflict. The operation highlights growing concerns about threats to undersea cables, which connect about 99 percent of global internet traffic, with the UK having 60 cables near its waters.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer embarked on a visit to the Gulf on Wednesday, following a two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. This development brings a moment of relief to the region and the world, as stated by Starmer.The ceasefire, agreed on Tuesday evening, effectively cancels a self-imposed deadline by US President Donald Trump for Iran to surrender or face widespread destruction. Starmer emphasized the need for the international community to support and sustain this ceasefire, with the goal of turning it into a lasting agreement.During his visit, Starmer will discuss diplomatic efforts to uphold the ceasefire and protect the UK and global economy, which has been impacted by the conflict. The British government aims to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil and gas shipping route that has been closed since US-Israel attacks began.The visit comes amid mounting pressure on Starmer to limit US access to British airbases, following Trump's warning that a 'whole civilization will die' if Tehran did not comply with his demands. Trump's comments were criticized by military observers and retired officers as 'likely war crimes'.British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper has been in talks with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, urging a swift end to the conflict and giving the UK's backing to negotiations. Cooper and Rubio also discussed international efforts to open the Strait of Hormuz, including a UK-led meeting that brought together over 40 countries to pursue reopening.

The UK Home Office has refused rapper Kanye West’s request to travel to Britain, stating that his presence would not be "conducive to the public good" after a wave of criticism over his anti‑Semitic comments and open admiration for Adolf Hitler.West, now performing under the name Ye, submitted a visa application on Monday for a headline slot at London’s Wireless Festival in July. The Home Office issued a denial on Tuesday, effectively barring him from entry.In response, the festival’s organisers announced the cancellation of the entire event and pledged to refund all ticket holders, underscoring the pressure from sponsors and politicians to distance the show from the controversial artist.Amid the controversy, West publicly offered to meet members of the British Jewish community, saying he wanted to demonstrate “unity, peace and love through music” and that “words aren’t enough – I’ll have to show change through my actions.”The backlash intensified after West released a track titled “Heil Hitler” and marketed a swastika‑bearing T‑shirt on his website, actions that have drawn widespread condemnation for glorifying Nazism.West has performed in the United States and Mexico City this year, but was barred from Australia in July 2023 for similar reasons. He later placed a full‑page apology in the Wall Street Journal, attributing his behavior to an untreated bipolar disorder.British government minister Wes Streeting dismissed the bipolar‑disorder explanation as “appalling,” while Prime Minister Keir Starmer called the decision to book West “deeply concerning” given his prior anti‑Semitic remarks and celebration of Nazism.The Campaign Against Antisemitism welcomed the Home Office’s move, stating that it “backed up its words with action” and affirmed that antisemitism has no place in the UK.West’s European tour continues to face resistance; the mayor of Marseille, France, publicly declared the rapper “not welcome” for a scheduled June concert.

The families of British citizens held in the United Arab Emirates over allegations that they shared images of the conflict with Iran have expressed frustration at the British government's failure to help.Several British citizens are among more than 100 foreign nationals who have been detained under draconian Emirate rules that outlaw publishing or sharing material that could 'disturb public security'.UK government ministers have refused to condemn the arrests, amid claims they are too fearful of offending the Emirates because of their economic clout.The campaign group Dubai Watch, which is supporting nine British detainees, said their identities could not be revealed for fear of reprisals. But it has shown the Guardian anonymised correspondence from their increasingly anxious families.A mother whose daughter is being held wrote: 'This experience is exhausting, mentally and emotionally.'She described reading media reports about the continuing conflict in which Iran has retaliated against US and Israelis strikes by firing drones and missiles against its Gulf neighbours, including the UAE.She said: 'I have just read another article, and quite frankly I could do one purely on the inadequacies and sycophantic responses from this [UK] embassy.'She also expressed increasing fears for her daughter's safety as attacks continued. The mother said: 'I spoke to [my daughter] last night and they are no longer allowed to go outside in the courtyard as it's now deemed too dangerous to do so. This is an even bigger worry as they are all just sitting ducks.'Another message from a woman whose husband had been detained under the same law said the case had been 'mishandled'. She added: 'We are scared because nobody is telling us the truth. Can you please help us.'Police in Abu Dhabi said those detained had 'filmed sites and events and disseminated inaccurate information via social media platforms during the ongoing events, an action that could stir public opinion and spread rumours among community members'. In a statement, the officials said these 'violations' amounted to a 'misuse of social media'.Daisy Cooper, the deputy leader of the Liberal Democrats, confirmed that one of the detainees was a St Albans' constituent. She said their family was frustrated by the lack of consular help.Cooper told the Guardian: 'I'm deeply concerned that my constituent has been held with very little contact with their family, with no clear access to legal counsel, and no confirmation that UK consular officials have been permitted to visit them. The family are distressed and desperate for information about their wellbeing.'Cooper also criticised the UAE's round-up of anyone it has accused of sharing images of the conflict. She said: 'The response from the authorities appears wholly disproportionate given the nature of the allegations.'The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office confirmed that five UK nationals were receiving consular assistance in the UAE.David Haigh, a human rights lawyer and founder of Dubai Watch, said: 'There's an awful lot more than five cases. The embassy is overwhelmed.'He added: 'There hasn't been any government intervention because it would offend the UAE and they don't want to do that. Impotent is the best way to describe the response. They're too scared – it's all about the money and investment from the UAE.'

New York City's public hospital system has announced that it will not be renewing its contract with Palantir, a data analytics and AI firm, amid growing controversy over its government contracts in the UK. The decision comes as health officials in the UK express concerns over data privacy issues related to Palantir's £330m agreement with the National Health Service (NHS).The contract between NYC Health + Hospitals and Palantir, which focused on recovering money for insurance claims, was set to expire in October. According to documents shared with the Guardian, Palantir has paid nearly $4m to the hospital system since November 2023. The contract allowed Palantir to review patient health notes and help the hospital claim more money in public benefits through programs like Medicaid.Despite assurances from NYC Health + Hospitals that there was an 'absolute firewall' preventing Palantir from sharing information with US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), activists and data privacy experts have raised concerns over the potential risks of Palantir accessing de-identified patient data for purposes other than research.As New York City prepares to part ways with Palantir, the company is expanding its influence in the UK, despite backlash from activists and lawmakers. Palantir has contracts with the British government's Ministry of Defence and is seeking access to sensitive national financial regulation data through a contract with the Financial Conduct Authority.Medact, a health justice charity, has raised concerns that Palantir's software could enable 'data-driven state abuses of power', including US-style ICE raids. In response, Palantir has denied that its data could be used in this way, citing that it would be illegal and a breach of contract.The decision by NYC Health + Hospitals to drop Palantir has been hailed as a victory by activists, who are now calling on the NHS to follow suit and terminate its £330m contract with the company. The 'Purge Palantir' campaign, which involves nurses, pro-Palestinian activists, and social and climate justice groups, aims to stop Palantir from contracting with government agencies, universities, and corporations.