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The Escalating Cost of Russia's War in UkraineEvidence of Russia's poor performance in its war in Ukraine, both militarily and economically, has been mounting over the past week. The US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) has confirmed earlier assessments that Russia has lost territory it previously occupied in Ukraine, while Ukraine has managed to reclaim approximately 400 square kilometers in and around Dnipropetrovsk – more territory than at any time since late 2022.Russia's Military Setbacks and Economic StrainRussia has still made a net territorial gain in 2026, but its advance is slowing down dramatically. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank, Russia advanced by a net 104 sq km between January 1 and May 26, 2026, compared to its seizure of 1,619 sq km during the same period last year.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that Russian casualties had increased to 145,000 this year, of which 86,000 were killed and 59,000 troops seriously wounded. Ukraine's Defence Minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, highlighted that this meant 179 Russian losses per square kilometre of advance, compared to 67 last year – a rate higher than what Russia is currently able to replace through recruitment.Russia's war is also becoming increasingly difficult to finance. Having exceeded its entire 2026 budget deficit allowance by April, and depleted its foreign exchange reserves, Russia has been drawing down gold reserves at an unprecedented pace. According to its Central Bank, Russia has sold 27.9 tonnes of its gold reserves this year, worth more than $4bn, leaving reserves at their lowest since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.Shifting Battlefield Dynamics and StrategiesThe DIA attributed Ukraine's territorial gains to Russia losing access to Starlink satellite services used for targeting and counter-battery fire. Ukraine attributes its success to its strategy of interdicting Russian logistics through mid-range drone and artillery strikes, which Fedorov described as a programme called "Logistical Lockdown" designed "to scale up middle-strike and systematically destroy Russian capabilities at the operational depth."This Ukrainian tactic has prevented reinforcements of men and equipment from reaching the frontlines, diminishing Russia's superiority in depth of resources and mass. The effectiveness of this strategy was demonstrated when Kherson occupation governor Vladimir Saldo restricted movement along the M-14 highway connecting Mariupol, Berdyansk and Melitopol, due to the number of vehicles being struck there.On the defensive front, Ukraine received a significant boost when Sweden announced it would donate 16 Gripen warplanes to Ukraine, which would also purchase an additional 20 through the EU's Ukraine Support Loan in a deal worth $2.9bn. Zelenskyy noted that "Gripen fighters with appropriate weapons, in particular Meteor missiles, which destroy targets at a distance of more than 200 kilometres, will help us push back Russian aircraft" against the approximately 3,000 Russian glide bombs dropped weekly.Simultaneously, Ukraine continued its long-range strikes on the Russian oil economy, which funds the war. On May 23-24, Ukraine struck oil depots and terminals at Novorossiysk and Tamanneftegaz on the Black Sea, as well as military and industrial sites including the Metafrax Chemicals plant in Perm and the Taganrog Airbase in Rostov.Russia's Response and Escalation TacticsIn response to Ukrainian advances, Russia pursued its own aerial tactic of striking Kyiv through massive combined attacks of drones and missiles. On May 24, Russia launched 600 long-range drones and 90 missiles against Kyiv and surrounding areas, including 36 ballistic missiles. Ukraine managed to shoot down 91 percent of the drones and 81 percent of the cruise missiles, though those that hit damaged government buildings, museums, and a market, injuring at least 87 people and killing two.Russia framed these attacks as retaliation for what it described as a terror attack on a college in occupied Luhansk, which it claimed killed six students and injured 39. Ukraine's General Staff countered that it was a strike on a centre for Advanced Unmanned Technologies run by Rubikon, Russia's unmanned systems force.Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov informed his US counterpart, Marco Rubio, that Russia would begin striking "military sites" in Kyiv in retaliation, warning foreign citizens, including diplomats, to leave. Moscow specifically mentioned using its newest Oreshnik intermediate range missile in the attacks, which it has also forward-positioned in Belarus.Future Outlook of the ConflictThe current trajectory suggests that Ukraine's strategy of targeted strikes on Russian logistics and supply lines, combined with enhanced air defense capabilities from international partners, will continue to challenge Russia's military advances. However, Russia's demonstrated willingness to escalate attacks on urban centers and its deployment of advanced weaponry indicate that the conflict may enter a more intense phase.As Russia depletes its financial resources and struggles to replace casualties, its ability to sustain current operations may diminish. Conversely, Ukraine's increasing success in securing international military support and refining its asymmetric tactics could shift the balance further in its favor, though the long-term outcome remains uncertain as both sides adapt their strategies.

Lead: Brazil's turbulent road to the 2026 World CupAfter a historic home defeat to Argentina and a series of losses to regional rivals, Brazil secured qualification despite a political crisis at the CBF and the sacking of Dorival Jr. The appointment of veteran coach Carlo Ancelotti in May 2025 revived hopes for a competitive tournament run.Coaching overhaul and tactical shift under Carlo AncelottiAncelotti, aged 66 (turning 67 just before the tournament), has installed a classic 4‑2‑4 formation, emphasizing attacking width and counter‑attacking pace. Injuries to key defenders Eder Militão, Rodrygo and Estêvão force the midfield to shoulder defensive duties, while the lack of high‑level full‑backs raises concerns given Brazil’s legacy of players like Cafu and Roberto Carlos.Key player roster and injury concernsNeymar – selected in the 26‑man squad but nursing a calf injury that could keep him out of the starting XI or the tournament entirely.Vinícius Júnior – slated to wear the iconic No 10 shirt; his pace and dribbling are central to Brazil’s counter‑attack strategy.Endrick – emerging talent from Lyon with 12 goal contributions in 17 Ligue 1 games; likely to be a decisive impact sub.Gabriel Magalhães – core centre‑back expected to anchor the defence amid a shortage of elite full‑backs.Alisson – veteran goalkeeper whose saves will be crucial given the attacking emphasis.Group C fixture schedule and logistical advantage for Brazilian fansBrazil’s group matches are all staged in the United States, aligning with the estimated 2.8 million Brazilians residing there:13 June – vs Morocco in New York (6 pm local, 11 pm BST)19 June – vs Haiti in Philadelphia (8.30 pm local, 1.30 am BST)24 June – vs Scotland in Miami (6 pm local, 11 pm BST)The proximity of venues to major Brazilian diaspora hubs is expected to generate massive supporter turnouts, potentially influencing match atmosphere.Strategic implications for Brazil's World Cup campaignThe combination of Ancelotti’s attacking philosophy and the squad’s injury constraints forces Brazil to rely on swift transitions and individual brilliance, particularly from Vinícius Júnior and the emerging Endrick. Defensive solidity will hinge on Gabriel Magalhães and the midfield’s ability to cover for absent full‑backs.Outlook: What to watch as Brazil heads to the tournamentKey indicators will be Neymar’s fitness, the effectiveness of the 4‑2‑4 system against varied opposition, and Endrick’s impact off the bench. If Brazil can harness its fan base in North America and mitigate defensive frailties, they remain a strong contender for the title despite a rocky qualification journey.

The Rise of Alberta's Separatist MovementCanada is facing a separatist push unlike anything it has seen in decades. In Alberta, after hundreds of thousands signed a petition demanding a vote, a once-fringe movement is now headed towards a government-backed referendum. Prime Minister Mark Carney warns this could become Canada's Brexit moment, potentially reshaping the nation's political landscape.The Mechanics of Alberta's Independence PushThe movement gained significant traction through a petition that attracted hundreds of thousands of signatures, demonstrating substantial public support for secession. What was once considered a fringe idea has now evolved into a legitimate political force, progressing toward a government-sanctioned referendum. This represents a significant shift in Alberta's political discourse, moving beyond historical grievances to concrete action.National Implications and Constitutional ConcernsThe potential separation of Alberta would have profound implications for Canada's political and economic stability. As one of the country's resource-rich provinces, Alberta's departure could trigger similar movements in other regions, potentially fracturing Canadian unity. The federal government faces the delicate challenge of addressing legitimate regional concerns while maintaining national integrity, a balance that has proven difficult to achieve in other multinational states.Comparative Analysis: Canada's Potential BrexitPrime Minister Mark Carney's comparison to Brexit highlights the potential economic and political consequences of such a move. Like the UK's departure from the European Union, an independent Alberta would face complex negotiations on trade, resources, and border relations. The movement's leaders would need to demonstrate a clear vision for Alberta's future outside Canada, addressing economic dependencies and international recognition that Brexit has shown to be significant challenges.Future Trajectories and Possible OutcomesThe coming months will be critical in determining whether this movement gains sufficient momentum to succeed. If the referendum proceeds, its outcome will likely be close, with potential legal challenges regardless of the result. Even without full independence, the movement has already succeeded in shifting national discourse and forcing federal concessions. The long-term impact may be a more decentralized Canadian federation, with provinces demanding greater autonomy even within the union.

The Bank of England's Cautious Approach The Bank of England is in no rush to raise interest rates while the outcome of the Iran war remains uncertain and the UK's growth rate stays weak, the governor, Andrew Bailey, said. Interest Rates and Inflation Dynamics In a signal that borrowing costs will remain at 3.75% at least during the summer, Bailey said it was tolerable for inflation to stay above the Bank's 2% target during the current crisis. However, that would change if a more permanent increase in prices began to take effect. Bailey emphasized that the Bank's tolerance for above-target inflation would weaken if signs of second-round effects begin to emerge. He noted that financial markets had initially expected the Bank to cut interest rates twice this year to 3.25%, but now a rise of 0.25 percentage points to 4% before December is forecast. Economic Uncertainty and Global Context Speaking at a conference in Reykjavik organised by Iceland's central bank, the governor said the economic situation had deteriorated since the start of the bombing of Iran by the US and Israel. Bailey stressed the need to monitor the situation in the Middle East and its effects on the UK economy and inflation closely. He noted that central banks worldwide have struggled to cope with shock increases in energy costs sparked by the Iran war. Monetary Policy and Market Reactions Bailey mentioned that one reason the Bank was prepared to wait was that borrowing costs had risen for homeowners and businesses without the central bank needing to adjust interest rates. Mortgage costs had increased since hostilities broke out as lenders reversed their expectations of rate cuts, dampening the housing market. Hedge funds and other financial institutions that lend money to businesses had also increased borrowing rates. Future Outlook and Preparations Bailey indicated that the central bank was better prepared now to assess the likely impact of rising energy costs on the economy and inflation after adopting scenario planning. The Bank now highlights the wide range of factors that could turn a temporary increase in inflation into something more permanent. Bailey assured that the Bank would take swift action if there's a repeat of the previous inflation increase.

The Lead-Up to Ethiopia's Elections Ethiopia will head to the polls on June 1 for its first nationwide elections since the formal end of the Tigray war, a devastating two-year conflict from 2020 to 2022 that concluded with a peace agreement between the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Ethiopia at a Glance Ethiopia is a landlocked country in the Horn of Africa, covering an area of 1,104,300sq km (426,400sq miles) and bordered by Eritrea, Sudan, South Sudan, Kenya, Somalia and Djibouti. The country has sustained notable economic growth over the past two decades, with the IMF projecting a 9.2 percent expansion in 2026, the highest on the continent. Yet persistent challenges remain, including high inflation (11.7 percent as of April 2026), foreign exchange shortages, and the costly burden of post-war reconstruction. Ethiopia's Ethnic Groups The East African country is one of the most ethnically diverse countries in the world, with more than 80 distinct groups. The Oromo are the largest, making up about 35 percent of the population, concentrated largely in the south and central regions. The Amhara are the second-largest, about 24 percent, and have historically been the politically dominant group. Other significant groups include the Somali (7 percent), in the east; the Tigrayan (6 percent), concentrated in the northern Tigray region; and the Sidama (4 percent), in the southern highlands. Armed Violence Across the Country Ethiopia has been in near-continuous conflict since 2020, across several fronts: Tigray (2020-22): Ethiopian forces (ENDF) and their allies, including Eritrean forces, fought the Tigray defence forces (TDF). Oromia (2019-present): Conflict between Oromia regional forces, the ENDF, and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) has killed thousands of civilians. Amhara (2023-present): Amhara militias fought alongside federal troops in the Tigray war, but that alliance collapsed when the federal government reached a peace deal with the TPLF. According to Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), an independent conflict monitor, between January 1, 2022 and May 15, 2026, more than 7,400 attacks have been recorded across the country.

Olly Murs Steps Into the Unknown for Soccer AidOlly Murs recently completed a brutal 400km journey from Old Trafford in Manchester to the London Stadium by running, cycling and rowing – and raised £830,000 for Unicef. On Sunday, he will take part in the 20th annual Soccer Aid match, along with Jill Scott, Tom Hiddleston, Wayne Rooney, Jermain Defoe, Owen Cooper and Angry Ginge.Under the VinesPressing concerns: the first season of this breezy wine-making daytime drama saw chalk-and-cheese step-cousins Louis (Charles Edwards) and Daisy (Rebecca Gibney) grow close after jointly inheriting a kaput New Zealand vineyard. But as this second run begins, Louis seems set on heading back to London with his ex.Gardeners' WorldWith summer making an early appearance, now is the time to embrace Monty Don’s colourful, bold flowers. Only got a patio to play with? Rekha Mistry has big plans for a small space. And Carol Klein is discovering the science of what happens to a seed from the very moment it is sown.Hunting Britain’s Fugitives: DispatchesHow many people are at large in the UK, guilty of serious crimes, but on the run and easily evading the authorities? Lawbreakers may think justice will never catch up with them, but some are less successful at escaping the attentions of reporter Matt Shea, who takes it upon himself to track them down and, in spite of the potential threat of violence, confront them.PoniesAmerican widows Bea (Emilia Clarke) and Twila (Haley Lu Richardson) have made an impactful debut as spies in Moscow in 1977: they’ve burned down a pub. How can they top that? A confident comedy drama fleshes out its two protagonists by giving Bea a new mission that requires her to toughen up, while Twila benefits from letting her guard down.Smoggie QueensLike a more chaotic, camper Beautiful People, the series ends with a bang as the gang, through flashbacks, recount a cheating scandal that happened during the final of the Mr Teesside competition. Expect several unreliable narrators, fake chest hair and “Detective Sexy” (AKA Dickie wearing fake breasts and a Sherlock cap).Film choiceFuze (David Mackenzie, 2025), 6.15am, 12.10pm, 8pm, Sky Cinema Premiere. Two of the bookies’ favourites to be the next James Bond go head to head in David Mackenzie’s tense, rug-pulling thriller. Aaron Taylor-Johnson stars as no-nonsense army bomb disposal major Will Tranter, called to defuse a second world war bomb in central London.

On 29 May 2026 Israel intensified its military campaign, extending strikes across the Lebanese border and triggering large‑scale civilian evacuations. The escalation has heightened regional tensions and sparked urgent humanitarian concerns.Escalation of Israeli Operations into Southern LebanonIsraeli forces moved beyond previously targeted zones, targeting infrastructure and alleged militant positions in border towns such as Marjayoun and Hasbaya. The broadened scope marks a notable shift from isolated cross‑border incidents to a coordinated offensive.Humanitarian Toll: Displacement and EvacuationsUN agencies report that thousands of residents have fled their homes in the affected districts.Temporary shelters have been set up in nearby towns and at UNRWA facilities.Access to basic services—water, electricity, and medical care—has been severely disrupted.Regional Implications for Lebanese StabilityThe attacks risk destabilising Lebanon’s fragile political balance, already strained by economic crisis and sectarian divisions. Hezbollah’s response and the Lebanese government’s capacity to manage the influx of displaced persons are now central to the unfolding security picture.International Reaction and Calls for De‑escalationThe United Nations, European Union, and several Arab states have urged restraint, emphasizing the need to protect civilians and prevent a broader conflagration. Diplomatic channels are being activated to negotiate cease‑fire arrangements.Outlook: Prospects for De‑escalation and Humanitarian ReliefAnalysts caution that without a rapid diplomatic breakthrough, the displacement wave could expand, overwhelming Lebanon’s already limited humanitarian infrastructure. Continued monitoring of Israeli‑Hezbollah engagements will be critical to forecasting the conflict’s trajectory.

The LeadThe Guatemalan government has firmly denied reports that it agreed to permit United States military strikes against drug traffickers within its borders, while simultaneously confirming its request for security cooperation with Washington. This clarification comes amid growing concerns about US military operations in Latin America and the complex relationship between regional governments and Washington's anti-drug policies.The Government's Position on Military Operations"There is no agreement authorising foreign military operations by any country within national territory," the government of President Bernardo Arevalo stated in a formal release on Thursday. This denial directly responds to a New York Times report citing unnamed sources who claimed Arevalo had agreed to US military action in Guatemala.Accompanying the government statement was a note from a letter by Guatemala's Defense Minister Henry Saenz to his US counterpart Pete Hegseth, dated May 28. The letter reveals that Guatemala "desires to lead, with US assistance, active military operations" against drug groups identified as "designated terrorist organisations" (DTOs) by Washington."In accordance with existing bilateral agreements and arrangements, such combined Guatemala-led operations would further bilateral interests in defeating DTOs and advancing regional and hemispheric security," Saenz wrote in the document.The Regional Context of US Anti-Drug OperationsThe Guatemalan clarification emerges against a backdrop of increasingly assertive US anti-drug policies in Latin America. Under President Donald Trump, the United States has demonstrated a willingness to use military force in the region, including conducting air strikes against alleged drug boats in the Caribbean Sea and Pacific Ocean.These operations have resulted in at least 194 deaths and drawn criticism from rights advocates who characterize them as extrajudicial killings. The US has also taken more direct action, including the abduction of Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro in January, whom it accused of drug trafficking.Following Maduro's removal, his vice president Delcy Rodriguez has improved relations with Washington and allowed greater foreign involvement in Venezuela's oil sector, though the US continues to exert control over the country's oil exports.The Impact on US-Latin America RelationsMany countries in Central and South America have struggled to contain gang violence related to the drug trade, creating a complex security landscape. In January, Guatemala's Arevalo declared a 30-day state of emergency after suspected gang members killed at least 10 police officers, highlighting the severity of the security challenges.Latin American leaders have consistently demonstrated a nuanced approach to US involvement - wary of direct military intervention but open to intelligence sharing and security cooperation. This delicate balance reflects both the genuine security needs of these nations and the historical sensitivities surrounding US intervention in the region.President Arevalo, elected in 2023 on an anticorruption platform, appears to be navigating this complex terrain carefully, seeking assistance while maintaining sovereignty over military operations within Guatemala.Future Outlook for Regional Security CooperationThe situation in Guatemala suggests a likely continuation of this pattern of conditional cooperation. Regional governments will likely continue to seek US assistance in combating drug trafficking and organized crime while resisting direct military operations on their soil.The coming months may see increased diplomatic efforts to define the boundaries of security cooperation, with Guatemala potentially serving as a model for other nations seeking to balance security needs with sovereignty concerns.As the US continues its anti-drug operations in Latin America, the region's response will likely shape the future of hemispheric security policies and determine whether cooperation can be achieved without compromising national sovereignty.

The Art of Provocation T Venkanna's paintings are like a sucker-punch. His first institutional solo show at London's Studio Voltaire features an overbearing altarpiece, modified by two squat side panels, depicting an orgasmic thicket of desire. The artwork is a commentary on the disparity between puritanical religious doctrine and licentious reality. The Intersection of Myth and Reality Venkanna's work is a way to consider many things, including the myth of religions. He draws inspiration from ancient Indian temples, where people touch the breasts of sculptures, making them smooth and shiny over time. His paintings are not about shocking, but about showing things around us. The Impact of Upbringing Venkanna's childhood in a small town in south-central India, where his father was a Hindu priest, had a significant impact on his work. He grew up in a one-room home with five other family members, and village people would come to ask about rituals and expectations of appropriate behavior. However, Venkanna discovered that these rules had a convenient degree of flexibility. The Evolution of Style Venkanna's artistic journey began with painting and drawing naked figures at home. He was sent to train as a drawing teacher and later enrolled in a fine art college, where he learned printmaking, miniature painting, and how to make and work with tempera. His early work was met with criticism, but he has since gained recognition, including a gold medal and support from teachers who donated their spare materials. The Future of Art Venkanna's work continues to push boundaries, exploring themes of intimacy, isolation, consent, and violation. His paintings are a counterpoint to gender inequality and prejudice, foregrounding women's experiences and depicting them as satiating their sexual appetite. As Venkanna says, 'I don't want to shock. What I'm showing are things around us.' T Venkanna: Sculpture Garden is at Studio Voltaire, London, until 23 August