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The acting Navy secretary Hung Cao told a Senate committee that the United States is temporarily pausing a $14 bn arms sale to Taiwan to ensure sufficient munitions for the Iran operation dubbed Epic Fury. The disclosure, coupled with a Washington Post report on interceptor usage, has sparked concerns that the U.S. may be exhausting its strategic missile stockpiles faster than they can be replenished. Senate Hearing Highlights $14 bn Taiwan Sale Pause and Iran‑War Munitions Demand During the hearing, Cao emphasized that the pause is a precaution, not a sign of a critical shortage, stating the U.S. has “plenty” of munitions for Epic Fury. Yet his own remarks underscored a broader tension: while officials publicly project confidence, internal data suggest a rapid drawdown of high‑value weapons used against Iran. Interceptors and Tomahawks: The Scale of US Depletion THAAD interceptors: >200 launched – roughly 50% of the U.S. inventory. SM‑3/SM‑6 missiles: >100 deployed. Tomahawk cruise missiles: >1,000 used out of an estimated 3,100. Overall, seven critical munitions saw more than half of their pre‑war stockpiles expended, according to a CSIS report dated April 21. Strategic Ripple Effects for Allies and Future Theaters The depletion has immediate implications for U.S. partners. Japan and South Korea, which rely on American missile‑defence systems, face heightened risk if the supply chain cannot keep pace. Gulf allies also worry about reduced availability of Patriot and THAAD systems should the Iran conflict reignite. Moreover, the same interceptors are needed for potential Indo‑Pacific contingencies involving China, amplifying the strategic stakes. Rebuilding the Arsenal: Timeline and Policy Choices Analysts from the International Institute for Strategic Studies and CSIS warn that restoring pre‑war levels for the seven most‑depleted munitions will require “one to four years” as production pipelines catch up. Factors such as supply‑chain bottlenecks, skilled‑labor shortages, and rare‑earth material constraints slow the ramp‑up. Until capacity improves, U.S. planners must factor stockpile depth into escalation calculations, potentially limiting the frequency or intensity of future strikes.

The Stalemate in US-Iran Peace Talks Iran's mission to the United Nations has accused Washington of 'excessive demands' that are pushing peace talks towards collapse. The development comes amid reports that the US administration is preparing for strikes on Iran if negotiations fail. Pakistan's Mediation Efforts Pakistan's army chief, Asim Munir, visited Tehran and met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. They 'exchanged views on the latest diplomatic efforts and initiatives to prevent escalation of tensions.' The US Stance on Iran US President Donald Trump confirmed that he would not attend his son's wedding and would stay in Washington due to 'circumstances pertaining to government.' This fueled speculation that the situation had entered a sensitive stage. The Road to a Potential Breakthrough Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei cautioned that Munir's visit did not mean 'we have reached a turning point or a decisive situation,' as 'deep and significant' disagreements remained. The Diplomatic Efforts Al Jazeera's Tehran correspondent reported that Araghchi had held phone calls with his Turkish, Iraqi, Qatari, and Omani counterparts, as well as with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, about the state of the peace talks. The Regional Impact The ongoing regional war has affected the global economy due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan's Prime Minister and Foreign Minister are set to discuss efforts to resolve the crisis during their visit to China, Iran's top trading partner.

The Diplomatic Standoff in Tehran Pakistan's powerful army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, arrived in Tehran on Friday as diplomatic efforts to broker a peace agreement between Iran and the United States intensified. Pakistani officials are reportedly playing a growing mediation role as regional powers push to prevent a wider conflict. But Iranian officials have tempered expectations for a quick breakthrough. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said differences in the mediated talks between Tehran and Washington remain "deep and significant", signalling that major obstacles still stand in the way of a formal agreement. Meanwhile, outrage is growing over Israel's treatment of Gaza aid flotilla activists after organisers of the Global Sumud Flotilla said at least 15 detainees reported incidents of sexual assault, including rape, following their seizure by Israeli forces in international waters. The allegations have added to mounting international scrutiny over Israel's handling of pro-Palestinian activists and detainees. Iran's Strategic Position on Hormuz Hormuz 'security service': Iran said fees and tolls linked to transit through the Strait of Hormuz are part of a "security service" provided to vessels crossing the strategic waterway, as Tehran rejects US threats of escalation and asserts control over the strait under what it calls a "new reality". Iranian officials say more than 30 vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy over the past day. War halt 'essential': An Iranian official said stopping the war "on all fronts" is a necessary condition for any future negotiations with the US, while stressing that no final agreement has yet been reached despite ongoing efforts to bridge differences between Tehran and Washington. The source added that a positive diplomatic atmosphere alone is "not enough" to secure a deal. The Decisive Stage of Diplomacy 'Turning point': Iran said intensive diplomacy with the US has reached a "decisive" stage, with Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei citing the presence of senior Pakistani officials in Tehran as part of efforts to secure a peace agreement. He said Iran would not publicly discuss details of nuclear negotiations after past talks "led us into war", while reiterating Tehran's right to pursue peaceful nuclear energy. Sanctions not a priority: An Iranian official says ending the war, lifting the US blockade and ensuring stability in the Strait of Hormuz remain Tehran's main priorities in ongoing peace talks, while stressing that lifting sanctions on oil exports and releasing frozen assets are "not details for us". The official also praised Qatar's role in supporting Pakistani-led mediation efforts. UN push on Hormuz: France has drafted a United Nations Security Council resolution proposing an international mission to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, as a competing US-Bahraini proposal faces resistance from Russia and China, which have signalled they may veto the measure. The dispute over control of the strategic waterway has become a key obstacle in efforts to end the US-Israeli war on Iran amid rising oil prices and shipping disruptions. US Position and Domestic Pressures Diplomatic efforts continue: The US said "some progress" has been made in talks with Iran, though major differences remain over Tehran's enriched uranium programme and control of the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan and Qatar step up mediation efforts in Tehran as Secretary of State Marco Rubio warns Washington still has "other options" if diplomacy fails. Domestic pressure grows: Jason Campbell of the Middle East Institute said President Donald Trump is facing mounting pressure to de-escalate the war with Iran as oil prices rise and US midterm elections approach, despite Trump insisting the conflict "will be over soon". Campbell said Tehran believes it can withstand prolonged economic and security pressure, while "time is not a neutral factor" for the White House. Escalating Regional Conflicts US sanctions in Lebanon: Washington has imposed sanctions on nine individuals in Lebanon, including two military officers accused of links to Hezbollah, even as the US continues to mediate talks between Lebanese and Israeli officials. Deadly strikes in Lebanon: Israeli attacks across southern Lebanon have killed at least 11 people, including several healthcare workers and paramedics, in the latest violence to test the fragile US-mediated ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. The strikes hit multiple locations in the Tyre district, including Deir Qanoun en-Nahr, Hannaouiyah and Nabatieh, as Israel says it will continue targeting Hezbollah despite the truce. Lebanon economy strained by war: Business owners in Lebanon said the wars involving Israel, Hezbollah and Iran are deepening the country's economic crisis, with rising fuel and supply costs driving inflation higher and hurting livelihoods. In Beirut, barber Mario Habib says soaring generator, petrol and product costs have reduced business, as economists warn Lebanon's fragile recovery could stall if the conflict continues. Hamas accuses Israel of seeking Palestinian displacement: Senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan said Israel's war on Gaza aims to "end the Palestinian presence" in the territory rather than merely occupy it, rejecting calls for Hamas to disarm and warning that Palestinians would continue to resist what he described as efforts to force them from their land.

The Lead: Pakistan's Diplomatic Push in Iran CrisisPakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, is in Iran as part of ongoing mediation efforts to end the Israel and United States's war that began on February 28. This high-level diplomatic visit comes as the US reports slight progress in negotiations while tensions remain high in the region.The Event Details: Pakistan's Second Mediation MissionMunir arrived in Tehran on Friday, Iran's state-run IRNA news agency reported, citing the Pakistan Army. "On arrival, he was received and warmly welcomed by Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni," IRNA said, adding that "Pakistan's Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi was also present at the reception."It is the second such trip to Tehran by Munir amid Pakistani mediation efforts to end the war. Islamabad helped secure a temporary ceasefire between the warring sides on April 8, and later hosted the highest-level talks between the US and Iran since 1979 on April 11-12.During this visit to Iran, unnamed Pakistani sources told the Anadolu news agency that Munir will discuss Iran-US talks, regional peace and stability, and other "important issues".The Data Analysis: Shifting Positions in Negotiations"The current process and the presence of senior Pakistani officials in Tehran means that we have reached a turning point or a decisive situation," Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil ⁠Baghaei said on Friday.Iranian state media quoted Baghaei as saying the gaps between Tehran and Washington are "deep and significant". "We cannot necessarily say that we have reached a point where an agreement is close," he said. "The focus of the negotiations is on ending the war. Details related to the nuclear issue are not being discussed at this stage."Speaking at the White House on Friday, US President Donald Trump said, "Iran is dying to make a deal". "We'll see what happens. But we hit them hard, and we had no choice because Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. They cannot have it," Trump added.US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday that "slight progress" was made during talks with Iran. "I don't want to exaggerate the progress in talks, saying there had been 'a little bit of movement, and that's good'. He said the conversations were ongoing.The Impact Analysis: Regional and Global RamificationsThe Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries a fifth of global oil production, have sent ripples through the global economy, driving energy prices soaring.As diplomatic efforts continue, European Union nations moved towards imposing sanctions on Iranian officials and others responsible for blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the EU said on Friday. Tehran effectively closed the key shipping lane for global oil and gas supplies in retaliation for the US-Israeli war."The EU will now be able to introduce further restrictive measures in response to Iran's actions undermining the freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz," the European Council representing EU nations said.Trump has repeatedly set deadlines for Tehran and then backed off. But he's also previously indicated he would hold off on military action to allow talks to continue, only to turn around and launch strikes. The US president said he called off attacks on Iran this week at the request of allies in the Middle East, including the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.The Prediction: Path Forward for Diplomatic SolutionsIran's ⁠Baghaei said ⁠on Friday that a Qatari delegation ‌was currently holding talks with Iran's foreign minister, ⁠but added that ⁠Pakistan remained the main ⁠mediator in ⁠the ⁠negotiations.With Pakistan intensifying its mediation process to secure a second round of direct talks between the US and Iran, the region remains on edge. While both sides report some progress, the deep gaps between Tehran and Washington suggest that a comprehensive resolution to the conflict remains elusive, with potential for both diplomatic breakthroughs and military escalation still on the table.

Heatwave Fuels Surge in Holiday Road TravelTemperatures are forecast to exceed 30 °C in parts of the UK this Monday, turning the late‑May bank holiday into a high‑traffic event. Motoring groups warn that the combination of heat and the start of the half‑term break will make coastal roads and border crossings exceptionally busy.Key Traffic Figures for the Long WeekendThe RAC expects almost 19 million drivers on Britain’s roads, 1 million more than the same period in 2025.Nearly four in ten drivers plan a leisure trip, with the peak traffic on Friday and Saturday.About 5 % of drivers say high fuel prices will keep them at home; the average petrol price is 158.52p, the highest since December 2022.Coastal destinations on England’s east and north‑west coasts, as well as routes to the south‑east and Cornwall (A303, M5, A38), are flagged for severe congestion.Transport analytics firm Inrix predicts the worst bottlenecks on the M1, M25, M5, and M6.Border Checks and Rail Disruptions Compound DelaysAt the Port of Dover, the EU’s entry‑exit system (EES) remains partially manual, leading to hour‑long queues for the estimated 18 000 travellers between Friday and Sunday. Ferry departures peak on Saturday morning.Rail services will also face interruptions: £64 million of engineering work continues, with replacement buses on the east‑coast mainline (London‑Edinburgh) and the Great Western mainline (Newport‑Bristol Parkway). Strikes by the TSSA union will reduce timetables on routes linking the Midlands, Birmingham, Liverpool, and London.Broader Implications for UK Travel and EconomyThe surge in road traffic and associated delays could strain fuel supplies, exacerbate congestion‑related emissions, and pressure border infrastructure. Despite these challenges, demand for domestic and short‑haul leisure travel remains robust, with the AA noting a higher proportion of day trips to the coast than overnight stays, and the travel association ABTA reporting strong bookings for Mediterranean holidays.What to Expect Over the Bank Holiday WeekendTravelers should anticipate the heaviest road congestion on Friday and Saturday, especially on the highlighted motorways and coastal routes. Ferry passengers at Dover are advised to arrive early to avoid prolonged border checks. Rail users should check for service alterations and consider alternative routes or modes of transport, given ongoing engineering works and strike‑related reductions.

Lead: War Day 84 Marks a Shift Toward DiplomacyThe conflict between Iran and the United States entered its 84th day with renewed diplomatic activity. Both sides are exchanging draft proposals, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio highlighted "some good signs" while President Donald Trump warned of "very drastic" action if Tehran refuses to relinquish its uranium stockpiles.Mediated Negotiations Gain MomentumPakistani officials are conducting "intense mediation activity" in Tehran, according to Al Jazeera correspondent Almigdad Alruhaid. Senior Iranian sources say negotiators are close to a draft framework, though others caution that a final agreement remains premature.Pakistani mediation is accelerating to prevent further escalation.US‑Iran red‑line shift: Cato Institute senior fellow Doug Bandow stresses the need for both parties to move beyond entrenched nuclear red lines.Key Figures and Financial Stakes7,200 civilians rescued from rubble by the Iranian Red Crescent.More than two dozen MQ‑9 Reaper drones destroyed, losses estimated at $1 bn (≈20% of pre‑war inventory).At least 42 US aircraft damaged or destroyed, total losses near $2.6 bn.US has paused a $14 bn arms sale to Taiwan to preserve munitions for the Iran campaign.Regional and Military ImplicationsCentcom reports the USS Abraham Lincoln strike group remains at "peak readiness" in the Arabian Sea, signaling continued pressure despite diplomatic overtures. Meanwhile, Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon and new US sanctions on Hezbollah allies heighten the risk of a broader regional flare‑up.Outlook for a Potential DealIf the current draft proposals survive scrutiny, a diplomatic settlement could emerge within weeks, easing military pressure and opening pathways for humanitarian aid. However, the dual track of high‑cost equipment losses and political warnings from both Washington and Tehran suggests that any agreement will require substantial concessions on nuclear constraints and future US military commitments in the region.

Lead: U.S. Treasury Announces Sanctions on Hezbollah‑Linked Politicians and Security FiguresThe United States has designated nine people for allegedly enabling Hezbollah to undermine Lebanon’s sovereignty, marking the latest effort to cripple the group’s financial networks.U.S. Treasury Targets Hezbollah‑Linked Politicians and Security OfficialsIn a Thursday statement, the Treasury said the individuals were sanctioned “for obstructing the peace process in Lebanon and impeding the disarmament” of Hezbollah. The State Department added that the list includes members of Lebanon’s parliament, an Iranian diplomat, and security officials who “abused” their roles.Mohamed Abdel‑Mottaleb Fanich – executive council leaderNizammeddine Fadlallah – elected Hezbollah MPIbrahim al‑Moussawi – longtime officialHussein Al‑Hajj Hassan – longtime officialMohammad Reza Sheibani – Iranian ambassador‑designate to LebanonAhmad Asaad Baalbaki – Amal Movement security officialAli Ahmad Safawi – Amal Movement security officialSamir Hamadi – Lebanese Armed Forces branch chiefKhattar Nasser Eldin – top official at the General Directorate for General SecuritySanctions List and Reward Offer: Numbers and StakesThe Treasury also announced a reward of up to $10 million for information leading to the disruption of Hezbollah’s financial mechanisms.Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health reports that Israeli attacks since March 2 have killed at least 3,089 people and wounded 9,397.Implications for Lebanon’s Sovereignty and Ongoing ConflictState Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott warned that politicians, business leaders, or security personnel aiding Hezbollah will face “real consequences.” Hezbollah dismissed the sanctions as an “intimidation attempt” with “no practical effect” on its strategic choices.The sanctions arrive amid intensified Israeli air raids and shelling across southern Lebanon, including recent strikes in Tyre district towns that killed civilians and destroyed families.Potential Effects on Peace Talks and Regional DynamicsU.S. officials are simultaneously brokering peace talks between Israel and Lebanon, with political negotiations slated for June 2‑3 and security talks scheduled for May 29 at the Pentagon.Pigott said the sanctions aim to “create space for good‑faith conversations” and counter Hezbollah’s efforts to derail the negotiations.Analysts suggest the sanctions could pressure Lebanese officials to curb Hezbollah’s influence, but the group’s rhetoric frames the measures as a badge of honor, potentially hardening its stance ahead of the upcoming talks.

The UN Court's Landmark Ruling on Workers' RightsThe top United Nations court has ruled that workers and unions have the right to strike under a key international treaty, an opinion that could shape labour laws around the world.International Court of Justice (ICJ) President Yuji Iwasawa announced on Thursday that the court was "of the opinion that the right to strike of workers and their organisations is protected" under the International Labour Organization's (ILO) 1948 Freedom of Association treaty.The finding came in a 10-4 ruling by the court's 14-member panel, resolving a long-standing dispute between workers' and employers' representatives over whether the treaty – known as Convention 87 – implicitly protects workers' right to strike.The Legal Interpretation of Convention 87The ILO, a United Nations agency that sets global labour standards, had asked for the advisory opinion in November 2023 amid the disagreement over the treaty's interpretation.Although ICJ judges affirmed that the treaty enshrines the right to strike, they emphasised their opinion was narrow. The conclusion "does not entail any determination on the precise content, scope or conditions for the exercise of that right," Iwasawa clarified.Convention 87, which lays out protections concerning workers' and employers' freedom to organise, establish and join federations, has been ratified by 158 countries worldwide.The Court's Reasoning Behind the DecisionIn its 43-page advisory opinion, the ICJ reasoned that strikes are "one of the main activities engaged in and tools used by workers and their organisations to promote their interests and improve conditions of labour"."At the same time, freedom of association is instrumental in facilitating workers' organisations to take collective action to further and defend the interests of their members, including through the exercise of the right to strike," the opinion continued.The judges concluded that the right to strike is "in line with the object and purpose" of the convention, effectively ending what the ILO described as "a long-standing difference of views" over Convention 87 among employers and workers.Global Implications for Labor RightsWhile the ICJ ruling is not legally binding, many local courts view the ICJ's opinions as authoritative precedents. Labour advocates expect it will influence countries that have not yet recognised employees' right to strike.Harold Koh, who represented the International Trade Union Confederation, told the court the case was "about more than legal abstractions". "It will affect the real rights of tens of millions of working people around the world," he emphasized.The ILO noted that asking the ICJ to resolve such a disagreement was an "exceptionally rare" move, highlighting the significance of this ruling in international labor relations.Future of Workers' Rights WorldwideThis advisory opinion could lead to renewed efforts to strengthen labor protections in countries where the right to strike has been restricted or contested. The ruling provides international legal backing for workers' collective action.Employer groups may now face increased pressure to negotiate in good faith, knowing that international law supports workers' rights to organize and strike. The ruling may also influence future interpretations of other labor-related international conventions.As global labor markets continue to evolve, this ICJ opinion could serve as a foundation for addressing emerging challenges in workers' rights, including those in the gig economy and digital workplaces.

The LeadEleven weeks after the start of the Iran war, the Strait of Hormuz has remained closed to naval traffic, bleeding the global economy far beyond the Gulf. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) maintains an iron grip over this narrow, strategic waterway, while a corresponding United States naval blockade on Iranian ports has failed to reopen it.Before the war began, between 120 and 140 ships travelled through the strait each day, about half of them oil tankers carrying some 20 million barrels of oil between them. Now, only a few vessels whose owners have negotiated with the IRGC are permitted to pass.The Strategic Control of HormuzOn Wednesday, Iran said it coordinated the transit of 26 vessels through the Strait of Hormuz in 24 hours, two days after announcing the formation of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA), a new body to provide "real-time updates" on operations in the strait.Since the announcement of a temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran in April, Iran has been working on formalising a mechanism to charge a transit fee from ships crossing the critical chokepoint, through which 20 percent of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) are shipped during peacetime.Tehran has reportedly already charged fees as high as $2m per ship for transit since the war started. Even though countries opposing Tehran say this is illegal, it may still be less expensive than the overall cost of the closure of the strait each day.The Economic Cost of BlockadeNearly one-fifth of global oil and LNG exports were shipped by Gulf producers through the Strait of Hormuz before the US and Israel bombed Iran on February 28, triggering the Iranian closure of the waterway. The strait is the only waterway linking Gulf producers to the open ocean – there is no other route through which they can ship exports.About 20.3 million barrels per day of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz in peacetime – nearly 27 percent of global maritime oil trade. The lion's share of that crude went to Asian markets.Global LNG trade has been similarly hard hit. On the day before the war broke out, Brent crude – the global benchmark for oil prices – closed at $72.48 per barrel. After Iran closed the waterway on March 4 and began attacks on vessels attempting to sail through, traffic came to a standstill, stranding about 2,000 ships on either side of the strait.In terms of lost oil revenues, this amounts to $114.8bn of losses per day. About 10 billion cubic feet of LNG per day also used to pass through the strait, worth a further $7.8bn.The Cost-Benefit Analysis of Transit FeesFor hundreds of ships stranded in the Gulf with thousands of sailors on board, the cost of remaining anchored is steep, including crew wages, loan repayments, repair and management, coupled with inflated war risk premiums.In turn, Iran has reportedly been charging up to $2m for authorisation to pass. Experts say many will see this as worthwhile purely in terms of monetary cost."There is no doubt that paying Iran is cheaper than a continuous blockade because a sitting tanker bleeds money," said Nader Habibi, an Iranian American economist."It makes sense from an economic point of view, but it is not politically feasible," he added. "The companies are under pressure from the US sanctions and not to make arrangements with Iran. This is not just a purely economic cost-benefit analysis, but long-term considerations that are taken into account."International Legal PerspectivesInternational law protects free transit through strategic waters such as natural straits like Hormuz, barring countries from imposing passage tolls even where the waterways fall entirely into territorial waters, like in the case of Hormuz.However, services such as security controls, inspections and insurance regimes can be charged for. Chargeable fees also partly depend on whether a waterway is a man-made passageway or a natural one.These are three different precedents in maritime traffic flow:Panama Canal: An artificial waterway connecting the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Vessels pass through a unique system of locks that raise and lower vessels across elevated terrain. Since Panama built, maintains and operates the canal, it can charge transit fees based on vessel size, cargo capacity and booking priority. These range from several hundred thousand dollars per transit to some slots sold for millions of dollars.Suez Canal: Another artificial canal, linking the Mediterranean and Red seas. Egypt charges transit fees for the use of canal infrastructure, maintenance and traffic management services through the narrow waterway. Container ships and oil tankers pay from several hundred thousand dollars to more than one million dollars per voyage.Turkiye's Bosporus Strait and Dardanelles: These are different because they are natural straits, rather than man-made canals. Turkiye charges for navigation-related services such as lighthouse operations, rescue readiness, medical support and traffic management – and tightly controls ship scheduling and navigation.Regional Cooperation PossibilitiesIran's newly-formed PGSA published a new map of Hormuz, stretching from Kuh-e Mubarak in Iran to south of Fujairah, in the UAE, at the eastern entrance of the strait, and from the tip of Qeshm Island to Umm al-Quwain at the western entrance.Given how the Iran war has spilled over into the Gulf region – with the UAE taking the brunt of Iranian strikes – economist Mohammad Reza Farzanegan said "regional cooperation with Iran is the most realistic path to stable transit through the Strait of Hormuz."The UAE, Oman, Qatar and Iran will have to work together because their economies require it, he argued. A workable arrangement could include a joint maritime authority, shared monitoring, emergency coordination, environmental protection and service-based contributions for maintaining safe passage."This would give Iran a recognised role in the security of the waterway while giving Persian Gulf economies more predictability," Farzanegan added. "Such a framework is also more realistic than relying on external military enforcement, which has been more a source of trouble for these states."The Future OutlookWhile it may seem that the economics of the closure of the strait are currently skewed towards Iran, Aniseh Tabrizi, an associate fellow on the Middle East and North Africa Programme at think tank Chatham House, noted that "the economics by itself is not going to be the driver to change calculation or move from the current standpoint."She emphasized that Iran and the US need to reach a "diplomatic compromise, with other calculations linked in to the economic factor", before there can be an end to the energy supply crisis.Farzanegan added that if the world expects stable access to the Strait of Hormuz, then paying Iran could well be accepted as the price of keeping the vital waterway predictable. "From an economic perspective, a negotiated transit arrangement [with Iran] now makes more sense than continued closure," he concluded.