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Why I Stopped Checking the Forecast and What I LearnedFor a week I deliberately ignored my weather app, letting the sky dictate my plans. The experiment revealed a mix of pleasant surprises, moments of inconvenience, and deeper insights into how forecasts shape our daily choices.The Week‑Long Experiment: Day‑by‑Day ObservationsDay 1 – Saturday: Sunny start, sudden cloud, then sunshine again; I enjoyed spontaneous outdoor time.Day 2 – Sunday: Expected rain never arrived; a long drive and an 80th‑birthday lunch proceeded without a drop.Day 3 – Monday: Cold morning turned sunny; I dressed simply and adapted to a brief shower.Day 4 – Tuesday: App warned of 15 °C, I ignored it, and the day stayed dry despite a brief heavy shower later.Day 5 – Wednesday: A sudden hailstorm passed while I was inside a café, underscoring the unpredictability of local weather.Numbers That Reveal the Power of ForecastsMore than 50 % of Britons say they would cancel an outing if a forecast shows a 40 % chance of rain.Over 80 outdoor attractions, including Chester Zoo and the Eden Project, complained to the Met Office about lost visitors; Chester Zoo estimates a loss of up to £137,000 in a single day.According to a Harris Poll survey, 37 % of respondents rely only on the headline weather symbol, while 55 % would change plans at a 40 % rain probability.Another 60 % admit they have abandoned a day out only to discover the weather was fine.Reading University’s 2024 accuracy ranking placed the Weather Channel first, AccuWeather second, the Met Office third, Apple fourth and the BBC fifth.How Forecast Bias Shapes Behaviour and BusinessPsychologist Trevor Harley explains that weather apps give an illusion of control in an increasingly uncertain world, especially amid climate‑change anxiety. This “wet bias”—presenting any chance of rain to avoid disappointment—can amplify risk‑averse decisions, driving people to cancel plans or over‑prepare.For businesses, the visual cue of a raincloud can deter visitors, translating into substantial revenue loss. The Met Office’s radar visualisations, while more precise, are still limited by topography and rapid shower development, meaning local accuracy remains a challenge.What the Future Holds for Weather Forecasting and Everyday ChoicesAs hyper‑local radar data becomes more accessible, experts advise checking visualisations rather than summary icons. Meanwhile, mental‑health advocates suggest embracing “weather‑agnostic” habits—stepping outside and observing conditions directly—to reduce anxiety and improve mood.In the coming years we can expect:Greater integration of real‑time radar into mainstream apps.More transparent communication about forecast uncertainty.Public health campaigns promoting outdoor activity regardless of modest rain chances.

The Grim Reality of a Heatwave-Prone Britain If you think the temperature is uncomfortable today, let me take you to the last day of July 2052, where the rays of the climbing sun reveal a city still sweltering in the residual heat of the day before. From the air, London resembles a colossal refugee camp. Streets, gardens and parks are teeming with tents and cobbled-together shelters, within which the city’s residents have spent another uncomfortable night away from the heat traps that their houses and flats have become. After six days when the temperature peaked at about 40C, another scorcher is on the way. The Consequences of Inaction Half-hearted attempts to upgrade insulation across the country’s housing stock ran out of steam and cash decades earlier, and most homes still have few barriers to the infiltrating heat. Almost all the country’s electricity is now from renewables, which has brought the cost down, but the relentless onslaught of extreme weather has driven an ever-deepening economic depression across the world. Many now have air conditioning, but can’t afford to run it. The Data Analysis: A Future of Water Rationing and Food Shortages Water rationing across the south-east of England due to a succession of dry winters and a spring drought. Failed harvests at home in the previous two years, and massively reduced food imports, leading to the rationing of bread and other staples. Every hospital is overwhelmed as the incessant heat and humidity take their toll on vulnerable people, the old and the very young. The Impact Analysis: A Nation Unprepared The UK Climate Change Committee flagged last week in its latest report to the government that our country is not built to handle such heat and its all-pervasive ramifications. More than nine in 10 homes are not well insulated enough to keep out the heat, while by 2050 there is forecast to be a daily shortfall in water supply of 5bn litres. The Prediction: A Future of Increased Hardship Bearing in mind that we continue to pump out CO2 equivalent to the weight of 800,000 Titanics every year, and fossil fuel corporations are actively planning to expand operations, it is practically impossible for emissions reductions to happen fast enough to reduce the rate at which our world is heating. Consequently, 40C-plus mid-century heat in the UK is now baked in. We need, then, to face the fact that life in the 2050s is going to be very different from today, and act now.

The UK's Record-Breaking HeatwaveThe UK has recorded its hottest ever day in May, with an all-time high of 34.8C at London's Kew Gardens. Temperatures above 33C were recorded across the south-east of England, while Wales also provisionally broke its May temperature record. The heat is expected to persist through the week, with a 35C peak forecast on Tuesday.Impact on Daily LifeAs temperatures soar across the country, many are experiencing significant disruptions to their daily routines. The extreme heat is affecting everything from transportation infrastructure to workplace productivity and home comfort levels. People are being forced to make lifestyle changes to cope with the unprecedented temperatures.Community ResponseThe Guardian is reaching out to readers to document how they're experiencing and adapting to the heatwave. Through an interactive form, people can share their personal stories, challenges, and coping mechanisms. This community documentation will help create a comprehensive picture of how the UK is responding to this weather event.Climate ContextThis record-breaking heatwave occurs within the broader context of changing climate patterns. While individual weather events can't be directly attributed to climate change, scientists note that such extreme temperature events are becoming more frequent and intense globally. The UK's infrastructure, historically designed for milder summers, is facing new challenges.Future OutlookAs climate scientists continue to monitor these patterns, there are growing concerns about how the UK will adapt to increasingly frequent heatwaves. This event serves as both a current challenge and a preview of potential future conditions, prompting discussions about necessary infrastructure changes and public health adaptations.

On Monday 26 May 2026 the United Kingdom experienced a “tropical night” as minimum temperatures stayed above 20 °C, breaking the May daily‑minimum record for the second day in a row.Record‑Breaking Night Temperatures Across the UKKenley airfield (south London) recorded a minimum of 21.3 °C, the highest May night ever.Kew Gardens (south‑west London) hit 34.8 °C, setting a provisional all‑time hottest spring temperature.Previous May night record was 19.4 °C at Kenley on the preceding Sunday.12 locations, from Suffolk to Berkshire, broke their local records on Monday.97 Met Office monitoring sites reached or exceeded 30 °C.Numbers That Define the HeatwaveHighs of up to 35 °C forecast for southern England and Wales on Tuesday, with some areas approaching 36 °C.Heat‑wave threshold for this time of year is 28 °C (London and northwards to Cambridgeshire).Eight parts of England already met the three‑day heat‑wave criteria by Sunday evening, including Heathrow, Kew Gardens, Northolt, and sites in Oxfordshire, Suffolk and Essex.Implications for Climate Resilience and Public SafetyMet Office senior forecaster Greg Dewhurst warned that heatwaves are now developing “so quickly” due to the climate crisis.Firefighters battled a grass fire near Arthur’s Seat in Edinburgh as temperatures hit 25 °C.A 13‑year‑old boy died after drowning in a West Yorkshire reservoir amid the heat.Nearly 100 sites surpassing 30 °C underscores how many locations are meeting heat‑wave thresholds.What the Forecast Holds for the Rest of the SummerTemperatures are expected to gradually decline from mid‑week but remain in the high 20s with dry, sunny spells.Potential thunderstorms on Tuesday could temporarily curb peak temperatures.Continued high night‑time minima suggest that further “tropical nights” are likely as the season progresses.

The Heatwave in Western Europe Seven people have died in France in an extreme early-summer heat event that is affecting a swathe of western Europe, as France and the UK set record highs for May and temperatures were forecast to rise further on Tuesday. Record Temperatures and Deaths "What I can say today is that there have been seven deaths linked directly or indirectly to the heat," a French government spokesperson, Maud Bregeon, told TF1 television, adding that five of the deaths were by drowning. Météo France, the national weather agency, said Monday's highest reading, 37.1C, was recorded near Hossegor, in the south-western department of Les Landes, and that temperatures across the west of the country could exceed 36C on Tuesday. The Data Analysis The UK's Met Office said Monday was the country's hottest May day on record, with temperatures hitting 34.8C at Kew Gardens, south-west London, a reading it described as "exceptional in the UK even in mid-summer, let alone May". In Spain, widespread highs of 36-38C in the Guadiana, Guadalquivir and Ebro valleys were expected to continue possibly until Friday, the state weather service, Aemet, said, adding that "in some of those areas, temperatures could reach 40C". The Impact Analysis In Italy's Lazio region, which includes Rome, authorities have imposed restrictions on work in conditions "with prolonged exposure in the sun", for example on farms, construction sites and in the delivery sector, between 12.30pm and 4pm. Eight of France's 96 administrative departments have been placed on an orange high-temperature alert, the second-highest level, requiring the population to "be vigilant and take precautions", with a further 20 on a more moderate yellow warning. The Prediction Christophe Cassou, a climate scientist, told Le Monde: "This is an unprecedented event with a one in 1,000 chance of happening at this time of year in the climate of 1979 to 2025." He added that "it would have been virtually impossible in the pre-industrial era". The prime minister, Sébastien Lecornu, called a meeting of key ministers on Thursday to assess government preparations for heatwaves after more than 350 weather stations across France recorded new monthly highs on Monday.

Heatwaves have grown hotter and stronger as the planet has warmed, making what doctors call a "silent killer" even more dangerous. How worried should we be about heat – and how can we stay safe as the climate changes?The Human Cost of Extreme HeatHot weather kills an estimated half a million people each year. The average annual death toll is greater than that from wars or terrorism, but smaller than that from cars or air pollution.Despite this, heat is rarely listed as the cause of death. That's because extreme temperatures are largely indirect killers. Most heat victims die early from illnesses – such as heart, lung and kidney disease – that are made worse in warm weather.The Physiological Impact of Heat StressHigh heat stresses the human body, sending the heart and kidneys into overdrive as they work to keep the body cool. The added strain – particularly for those with chronic illness – can prove fatal even before heatstroke hits.There are also secondary health effects from high heat. Heatwaves lead to more accidents, dirtier air, bigger wildfires and more frequent power outages, all of which can increase the burden on health systems.The Critical Role of Nighttime TemperaturesWhen days are too hot to function and nights are not cool enough to recover, the body is unable to rest. This compounds the damage done during scorching days.In many European countries, meteorologists describe nights with temperature minimums above 20°C as "tropical", while in Spain, which is more familiar with extreme heat, they call nights above 25°C "equatorial" or "torrid". In recent years, they have informally introduced a new category for night-time temperatures above 30°C: "hellish".Identifying Vulnerable PopulationsPeople who are forced to be outdoors in scorching weather – builders, farmers, rough sleepers etc – are most likely to suffer from heat exhaustion and the heatstroke that can follow.But older people, and particularly those with underlying illnesses, make up the bulk of heat-related deaths. Women are more likely to die from heat-related causes than men. Poorer people – who are less likely to have air conditioning, well-insulated homes or access to green spaces – are also at greater risk.The Humidity FactorSweat is the body's best defence against heat, lowering internal temperatures as it evaporates. But when humidity is high and the air hot and sticky, the body struggles to cool down because sweat clings to the skin. The effect this has on perceived temperatures can be equal to several degrees, enough to spell the difference between life and death.Climate Change and Escalating HeatwavesMore than a century's worth of fossil fuel pollution has clogged the atmosphere, trapping sunlight and heating the whole planet. Average global temperatures have risen by about 1.3°C since preindustrial times – and land temperatures by even more – which has pushed the baseline higher and made punishing extremes far more common.There is also some evidence that the climate crisis is making heatwaves worse by weakening the jet stream. Scientists think this is increasing the occurrence of heat domes, which are areas of high pressure and heat that get stuck over a region for days or even weeks.The Net Effect of Rising TemperaturesCold weather kills far more people than hot weather today, even in warm regions such as sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. But as temperatures rise, the number of deaths from heat is projected to grow much faster than the number of lives saved from milder cold. When scientists modelled this in 854 European cities, they found a net increase in temperature-related deaths under all emissions scenarios, even accounting for how people adapt.Adapting to a Hotter FutureCutting fossil fuel pollution is the biggest step that can be taken to stop heatwaves from getting even hotter, along with protecting forests and wetlands that suck carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere.Urban planners have called for cities to be redesigned so they have less concrete and fewer cars, and more parks and water. This can negate the urban heat island effect, which makes cities hotter than their rural surroundings.Buildings with air conditioning or passive cooling can bring down death tolls, as can strong healthcare systems and swift emergency warnings.The Air Conditioning DilemmaAir-conditioning units increase planet-heating emissions if the power they consume is generated by burning fossil fuels, as it mostly is today, but their pollution is falling as countries clean up their electricity grids. Some experts cite the scale of the heat-related death toll as a worthy reason to use more air conditioning – particularly for the most vulnerable groups – even if it pushes temperatures higher.This year, the UK's Climate Change Committee (CCC) recommended that air conditioning be installed in all care homes and hospitals within the next 10 years, and in all schools within 25 years.Personal Safety StrategiesThe simplest advice is to stay out of the heat: avoid going outside during the hottest parts of the day, and stay in the shade if you have to. To keep your home cool, close windows during the day and open them after dark, when outdoor temperatures fall below inside temperatures. Cover windows with blinds or curtains to block out direct sunlight.Doctors also recommend drinking water frequently, wearing loose clothing and checking on vulnerable people in your community.

Britain’s energy regulator is poised to announce another steep quarterly price‑cap, signalling that electricity bills will stay high for the foreseeable future. The rise is driven not just by volatile wholesale prices but by a cascade of non‑commodity costs that are set to balloon over the next decade.Why the Next Ofgem Price Cap Is Likely to Remain ElevatedEnergy consultant Cornwall Insight predicts the typical household electricity bill will reach £1,850 this quarter – an increase of £209 from the previous period. The regulator’s messaging will likely cite the ongoing disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and the mitigating effect of new wind and solar generation.Cost Drivers Behind the Rising Electricity BillsWholesale electricity now accounts for only 30% of the bill, down from 90% a few years ago.Non‑commodity charges – grid upgrades, carbon taxes, warm‑home discounts and nuclear subsidies – dominate the cost structure.Network Use of System charges are projected to jump from £7.6bn this year to £12.1bn by 2029‑30, a ~60% increase.Balancing costs could rise from £2bn annually now to as much as £8bn by 2030.Industry leaders warn that even a 50% cut in wholesale prices would still leave bills 20% higher due to fixed non‑commodity costs.Broader Economic and Industrial ImplicationsHigh electricity prices threaten UK manufacturing competitiveness, as highlighted by the CBI and Energy UK. The Climate Change Committee stresses that cheaper power is essential to accelerate heat‑pump and electric‑vehicle adoption, yet the current cost trajectory delays those decarbonisation gains.What Transparent Medium‑Term Forecasts Could ChangeAnalyst Ben James estimates an average increase of £79 per household between 2025 and 2030. If Ofgem published similar medium‑term models, policymakers could better allocate levies, decide on taxation versus direct subsidies, and provide households with clearer expectations. Greater openness would also sharpen the political debate on who should bear the rising grid and balancing costs.

Court of First Instance Imposes Two-Year Sentence on Sonia DahmaniThe Tunisian Court of First Instance delivered a verdict on Friday, sentencing Sonia Dahmani to two years in jail for remarks made during a 2023 radio interview that criticised prison conditions. The decision was announced by her lawyer Sami Ben Ghazi to AFP.Accumulated Prison Terms and Legal ChargesCurrent sentence: 2 years for prison‑condition criticism.Previous convictions: 18 months in May 2024 for a sarcastic TV comment on migrants, and an additional 18 months in April 2024 for remarks about cemeteries and buses reserved for Black people.Overall, Dahmani faces prosecution in five separate cases, all rooted in statements deemed violations of Decree 54.Escalating Repression Under Saied’s Decree 54Decree 54, enacted in 2022, criminalises the spread of “false information” and has been widely condemned by human‑rights groups as a tool for political repression. Since President Kais Saied seized power in the July 2021 coup, the law has been invoked to target lawyers, journalists and activists, intensifying a climate of fear.Human‑rights organisations note a sharp increase in arrests and sentencing, linking the crackdown to broader anti‑migrant rhetoric that has sparked violence against sub‑Saharan migrants.Potential International Response and Future Legal BattlesDahmani’s lawyer has lodged an appeal, indicating that the case may ascend to higher courts. International watchdogs are likely to monitor the appeal closely, and renewed diplomatic pressure could arise from EU and UN bodies concerned with freedom of expression.If the appeal fails, the cumulative sentences could keep Dahmani detained for several years, further exemplifying the tightening of dissent in Tunisia and potentially prompting renewed calls for sanctions or conditional aid from foreign partners.

The Call for Urgent Action Climate campaigners have called on the UK government to urgently start installing air conditioning units in schools, care homes, and places where vulnerable people live. This call comes as the country experiences record high temperatures, with over 3,000 people dying from heat-related causes in 2022. The Impact of Heatwaves The UK has warmed by about 1.5C relative to the pre-industrial average, with Europe warming faster than any other continent. The majority of English homes overheat during the summer, making it essential to take measures to mitigate the effects of heatwaves. The Role of Air Conditioning Studies have shown that air conditioning can cut heat-related deaths by 75%. However, the use of air conditioning units is not without its challenges, as they consume a lot of electricity. To address this, experts suggest pairing air conditioning with solar power, which can provide a sustainable and green solution. The Way Forward Some experts argue that air conditioning should be prioritized for those who need it most, such as the elderly and young children. Additionally, investing in community solutions like cool spaces, such as community centers and churches, can provide respite for those at risk. The government has announced plans to cover grants for heat pump installation, including those with a cooling function, but experts argue that more needs to be done to increase energy supply on the grid. The Future Outlook As the climate continues to get hotter, the need to adapt properties to cope with extreme temperatures is becoming more urgent. The UK government must take action to address the issue, including investing in green energy and implementing measures to keep homes cool during the summer. This can include installing shutters, retrofitting homes with insulation, and promoting the use of air conditioning units in vulnerable settings.