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The Lead US President Donald Trump departed for Beijing on Tuesday for a high-stakes summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, saying the two leaders would hold a 'long talk' on Iran even as trade remains the main focus of the visit. Iran's Stance on Peace Iran presses US on peace proposal: Iran's chief negotiator and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Washington must accept Tehran's latest peace plan or face failure. Report says Iran retains missile strength: The New York Times reported Tuesday that classified US intelligence assessments say Iran still has substantial missile capabilities, with about 70 percent of its mobile launchers and pre-war missile stockpile still in action. War Diplomacy Chinese supertanker crosses Hormuz: Chinese crude oil supertanker Yuan Hua Hu was reportedly transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, ship-tracking data showed, passing Iran's Larak Island while heading out of the Gulf. Hezbollah rules out disarmament talks: Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem said his group's weapons were not part of forthcoming ceasefire negotiations between Lebanon and Israel. Qatar warns over Hormuz pressure: Qatar's prime minister said Iran should not use the Strait of Hormuz, blocked since early in the war, as a means of 'blackmail' against Gulf states. The Gulf UAE gas facility hit by war: The UAE's main gas processing complex, one of the world's largest, will not resume full capacity until next year, its operator said, after it was hit in the Iran war. Kuwait arrests alleged IRGC operatives: The country said it arrested four men accused of belonging to Iran's IRGC after they tried to infiltrate Bubiyan Island by sea and injured a Kuwaiti soldier. In the US Trump on Xi: Trump said he does not believe the US needs China's help to end the war involving Iran, but confirmed the issue would still feature in his talks with Xi Jinping this week. Trump says war's end will bring down inflation: Facing growing domestic pressure over rising prices linked to the conflict, Trump said the war 'will not be long' and argued its end would trigger a sharp drop in oil prices and inflation. US says Iran war has cost $29bn: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told lawmakers the war has cost Washington at least $29bn in munitions and equipment over 74 days, excluding damage to bases. The Impact Analysis The ongoing conflict in Iran has significant implications for the global economy, with rising oil prices and inflation being major concerns. The war has also led to a humanitarian crisis, with hundreds of thousands of students displaced and schools destroyed in Lebanon. The Prediction The future outlook for the conflict in Iran remains uncertain, with both sides showing no signs of backing down. However, with growing domestic pressure and international diplomacy, there is a possibility that the conflict could be resolved peacefully in the near future.

The Lead: A High-Stakes Diplomatic Encounter Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to seek concessions on Taiwan and US tariffs when he meets United States President Donald Trump for a critical summit taking place in the shadow of the war on Iran. Trump's arrival in China marks the first trip by a US leader to the country since 2017, setting the stage for what could be a pivotal moment in US-China relations. The Taiwan Confrontation: Core Interest and Red Lines Unlike Trump's mercurial policymaking approach, Xi is widely seen as predictable in his goals for the summit, particularly concerning Beijing's "core interests" related to national security and territorial integrity. At the top of that list is Taiwan, which Beijing views as an inalienable part of its territory despite Taiwan's self-governing status. China has named Taiwan as the first of "four red lines" that "must not be challenged." In a call with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio last month, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi described Taiwan as "the biggest risk in the China-US relationship." While analysts say it's unlikely the US will change its position on Taiwan due to Chinese pressure, Trump has indicated the summit will include discussions about the $14bn arms package approved by Congress for Taiwan. The Trade War Dynamics: Economic Uncertainty and Strategic Maneuvering Xi is also eager to smooth over US-China relations after a tumultuous 18 months that saw Trump launch a second trade war with the world's second-largest economy. The standoff saw both countries implement escalating tariffs and punitive measures, including export controls, before hitting pause in May. During their last meeting in South Korea in October, Xi and Trump agreed to a one-year reprieve in their trade war, though some trade measures remain in place. China is likely to agree to increase purchases of US agricultural exports and Boeing planes during the summit, but is unlikely to make concessions on rare earths—a sector it dominates—without major political trade-offs from the US. The Geopolitical Chessboard: Iran Conflict and Global Implications The US-Israel war on Iran will loom large over the summit. Although not a direct participant, China has been significantly impacted by the economic fallout of the conflict and the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of global oil and natural gas supplies typically pass. Beijing has consistently called for negotiations and a comprehensive ceasefire since the conflict began, a message Xi is likely to reiterate. Despite Trump stating he doesn't need China's "help" resolving the war, the White House has pressured Beijing to influence Iran to reopen the strait. China has maintained a "comprehensive strategic partnership" with Iran since 2016 and purchases more than 80% of its oil, though Xi is expected to limit China's role to mediation, consistent with its non-intervention foreign policy principle. The Future of US-China Relations: Strategic Adjustments and Long-term Planning For Beijing, the stakes are particularly high as its view of Trump has shifted from a "predictable transactional counterpart" to a "more action-oriented and harder-to-restrain opponent." Rather than securing immediate concessions, China's priority is "trying to adjust the current strategic position and negotiating pace that are unfavorable to it, and bring US-China interactions back into a framework that it can better control." Xi may also support Trump's plan to create a "Board of Trade" and "Board of Investment" to oversee US-China economic ties, as Beijing seeks predictability and certainty for the remainder of Trump's term through January 2029. This stability would allow China to plan its own economic policies with greater confidence, particularly regarding tariff levels and trade relationships.

A new large‑scale randomized trial presented at the European Congress on Obesity in Istanbul indicates that the oral GLP‑1 antagonist orforglipron can help patients retain the majority of weight lost with injectable therapies such as tirzepatide (Mounjaro) and semaglutide (Wegovy).Trial Shows Oral Orforglipron Preserves Most Weight After Switching from InjectablesThe study, funded by Eli Lilly, followed 376 US patients who had been on tirzepatide or semaglutide injections for 72 weeks and then randomized them to a daily orforglipron tablet or placebo for an additional year.Participants were previously on weekly GLP‑1 jabs that typically produce 15‑20% body‑weight loss.After the injection phase, subjects were switched to oral therapy or placebo for 12 months.Primary endpoint: proportion of weight loss retained at 12 months.Quantitative Outcomes: 75% vs 49% Retention for Tirzepatide Users, 80% vs 38% for Semaglutide UsersWeight‑loss maintenance differed markedly between the pill and placebo groups:Tirzepatide cohort: 75% of lost weight retained with orforglipron vs 49% with placebo.Semaglutide cohort: 80% retained with the pill vs 38% with placebo.Secondary benefits—blood pressure, cholesterol, and glycaemic control—were also sustained in the pill arm.Implications for Obesity Management and Healthcare CostsExperts highlighted the broader significance:Dr Louis Aronne (Weill Cornell Medicine) emphasized that treating obesity directly can simultaneously improve glucose, lipid, and blood‑pressure metrics.Dr Marie Spreckley (University of Cambridge) noted patient preference for oral therapy due to convenience, storage, and lower cost.Dr Simon Cork (Anglia Ruskin University) warned that injectable GLP‑1 drugs, while highly effective, are expensive and limit long‑term accessibility for both private payers and the NHS.The findings suggest a potential shift toward oral agents that maintain efficacy while reducing financial and logistical burdens.Future Outlook: Oral GLP‑1 Therapies Could Redefine Chronic Obesity CareIf further trials confirm these results, orforglipron could become a cornerstone of chronic obesity management, enabling earlier intervention (BMI 25‑27) and possibly preventing progression to severe obesity.Regulators and payers will likely scrutinize cost‑effectiveness models, but the prospect of a cheap, daily tablet that sustains weight loss may reshape treatment algorithms worldwide.

The Leadership Challenge British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, fighting for his political survival after dozens of his own MPs called for him to resign, promised to press ahead with plans to reform the country before an expected meeting with his potential leadership rival Wes Streeting, the health secretary. Calls for Resignation Starmer has so far defied calls to quit from Labour MPs, who blame him for heavy losses in local elections last week and say he has failed to deliver reforms since coming to power in a landslide 2024 election victory. More than 80, or almost a quarter, of the prime minister's elected MPs have called for Starmer to go, and four junior ministers have resigned in protest. The Meeting with Streeting The meeting in Downing Street will take place before King Charles gives a speech at the opening of parliament – a grand ceremony led by him and used by the government to set out its political priorities and legislative agenda for the year ahead. A public statement is not expected to follow the Streeting-Starmer meeting to keep the attention on the speech, according to British media reports. The Future of Starmer's Leadership Despite the turmoil, Starmer will take part in parliament's grand opening on Wednesday. He said in a statement on Tuesday evening: 'Britain stands at a pivotal moment: To press ahead with a plan to build a stronger, fairer country or turn back to the chaos and instability of the past.' The implementation of the government's plans remains uncertain, and if Starmer were to be removed, his successor would not be bound to follow the same plan.

Lead: Massive Street Demonstrations Across ArgentinaTens of thousands of Argentines converged in major cities on Tuesday to denounce the Javier Milei administration’s cuts to the public university system, a cornerstone of the nation’s tuition‑free higher‑education model.Thousands Take to Streets as Milei’s Cuts Target Tuition‑Free UniversitiesProtesters marched from central Buenos Aires toward the presidential palace, chanting against budget shortfalls that they claim undermine the foundations of higher education. The public university system has been tuition‑free since 1949 and has produced five Nobel laureates.Estimated protest size: tens of thousands nationwide.Key locations: Buenos Aires, Córdoba, Rosario.Government stance: Alejandro Alvarez, undersecretary for university policy, called the march “completely political”.Budget Shortfalls and Salary Declines Highlight Fiscal StrainCongress approved a law last year to finance operating costs and raise academic salaries in line with soaring inflation, but the Milei government has refused implementation and is challenging the legislation in court.University operating‑cost financing law: passed 2025.Real‑term professor salaries have fallen by about one‑third since Milei took office in late 2023.Unemployment and real wages are also declining, contributing to sliding approval ratings for Milei.Erosion of Higher‑Education Foundations Threatens Social MobilityThe cuts strike at a system that has historically enabled social mobility and scientific achievement. Public anger is amplified by corruption allegations surrounding Manuel Adorni, Milei’s cabinet chief, whose alleged lavish spending contrasts sharply with his official salary.Public universities: tuition‑free, historically elite‑producing.Corruption probe: media reports on extravagant expenses by Adorni.Political climate: protests include a broad cross‑section of ages and political leanings.Future Trajectory: Potential Escalation and Policy Reversal ScenariosIf the government continues to block the financing law, protests may intensify, potentially forcing a legislative or judicial reversal. Conversely, a negotiated settlement could restore funding, stabilizing university salaries and tempering social unrest.

The Trump-Xi Summit: A Pivotal Moment in US-China Relations Donald Trump's state visit to China this week – the first by the US president in nearly a decade – comes amid a time of geopolitical upheaval, a new and intractable conflict in the Middle East, and a sometimes rocky relationship between the world's two major superpowers. There is much for Trump and Xi Jinping to discuss, but a few key issues are likely to dominate the agenda. Five Critical Issues on the Summit Agenda The high-stakes meeting between the two leaders addresses several pressing matters that could reshape the global landscape: The Iran Conflict and Hormuz Strait Crisis Trump is eager for China to lean on Tehran to advance peace talks and reopen the strait of Hormuz. To now, Beijing has sat back and watched the US struggle against Iran, at least publicly. But with about half of China's crude oil imports passing through the strait, Xi does want the waterway unblocked. China knows its exports will suffer if a global recession results from an oil supply crisis. Complicating the picture, the US this week put sanctions on several Chinese firms accused of assisting Iranian oil shipments and supplying satellite imagery allegedly used in Iranian military operations, claims that Beijing denied. Trump's arrival comes after Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, visited Beijing last week. Taiwan: The Flashpoint in US-China Relations Beijing is keen to push the US on Taiwan, with Trump saying he is prepared to raise the issue of arms sales to the island, which China claims as a breakaway territory despite never having ruled it. In December, Trump authorised an $11bn arms package for Taiwan, the largest weapons sale ever to the island, but no shipments have been made yet. Xi may seek changes in how the US refers to Taiwan. Ideally, from the perspective of Beijing, this would be a statement from Washington "opposing" Taiwan's independence rather than "not supporting" it. Taiwan will be watching closely. Just two weeks ago, China's foreign minister in a phone call with Marco Rubio urged the US to "make the right choices" on Taiwan. With Trump known to veer off script, John Kirby, a former US state department and Pentagon spokesperson cautioned: "They just have to be so extraordinarily precise when you're talking about Taiwan because, quite frankly, the stakes are enormously high." The AI Cold War: Technological Supremacy at Stake China and the US are locked into a race on artificial intelligence that is becoming something of a technological cold war. In April, the White House accused China of stealing US AI labs' intellectual property on an industrial scale, claims Beijing denied. Meanwhile, Beijing has been frustrated by Washington's reluctance to allow Nvidia to export its most powerful processing chips to China. In January, the White House said Nvidia could export its second most powerful chip, the H200, but no shipments have been sent yet. Analysts and ethics leaders hope Trump and Xi will discuss non-binding AI guidelines, including sharing information about AI misuse and safety, which are seen as critical guardrails amid the advent of AI weaponry and military adoption. Trade War: Rare Earth Minerals and Economic Leverage Trump has repeatedly threatened China over trade, imposing tariffs above 140% last year. But Xi held some cards of his own and did not fold. Instead, China blocked exports of its rare earth minerals and magnets to the US. Trump, finally, backed down. The US has depleted notable levels of its weapons arsenal in the war against Iran, with many weaponry components requiring critical minerals that are linked to supply chains dominated by China. China is expected to announce purchases related to Boeing airplanes, American agriculture and energy, US officials have said. In turn, Beijing wants the US to ease curbs on exports of advanced semiconductors. Beijing also wants to reduce barriers to investment in the US, and hopes to establish a Board of Investment to match the Trump-back Board of Trade. Fentanyl: The Drug War and Political Posturing Fentanyl is a key item on Trump's agenda this week, Politico reported, citing an administration official granted anonymity to preview the closed-door sessions. The US has long accused Chinese businesses of knowingly supplying the chemical precursors to Mexican cartels who use them to make the drug. Trump knows that being seen to press China hard over fentanyl and precursors plays well with his Maga base. But Trump lost important leverage on the fentanyl front when China defied his tariffs threats. In March, the US and China clashed over fentanyl and trade at a UN drugs meeting. China wants to be removed from the state department's annual list of "major drug transit or illicit drug producing countries", due to be updated in September.

Morning Snapshot: UK Bond Market Bruised by Political Turbulence Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy. The UK bond market is bruised this morning after a day of political turbulence drove up Britain’s borrowing costs. Rising Yields: 10‑Year Gilt Above 5% – Highest Since 1998 UK long‑term bond yields hit their highest levels in 28 years on Tuesday, pushing the 10‑year gilt yield back above 5%, the highest level since 1998. Numbers at a Glance: Yield Spike and Borrowing Cost Implications 10‑year gilt yield: > 5% (first time above 5% since 1998) Yield rise triggered by fears of a left‑leaning Labour government and potential fiscal expansion. Higher yields mean investors demand greater compensation, increasing the cost of borrowing for the UK Treasury. Political Shockwaves: Labour Leadership Uncertainty and Reform’s Rise Investors are wary that a shift to the left under Keir Starmer could lead to higher spending and larger deficits. At the same time, the prospect of Nigel Farage entering Downing Street after Reform’s gains in the recent local elections adds another layer of uncertainty. Senior analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya of Swissquote notes that the market is "grappling with their own political shakeups" and that the combination of fiscal concerns and inflation outlook is driving yields up. Market strategist Bill Blain of Wind Shift Capital cautions that investors may not view Reform as a "safe pair of hands" for managing the bond market and public spending. Looking Ahead: What the King’s Speech Could Mean for Debt Markets The UK government will outline its legislative agenda in the King’s Speech later today, which could provide some respite for Keir Starmer amid ministerial resignations and calls for his departure. 10am BST: IEA monthly oil market report 10am BST: Eurozone GDP report (latest estimate for Q1 2026) 1.30pm BST: US producer prices inflation report for April 3pm BST: Bank of England policymaker Catherine L. Mann to release speech on “The UK’s international exposures and vulnerabilities”

A Novel of Female Defiance"Yes, you will leave this place," the chorus of child protagonists in a community of sex workers say at the start of Tahmima Anam's incantatory and fiery new novel of female defiance, Uprising. "This story will save your life," we were told three times in Deepa Anappara's 2020 debut, also featuring precarious children dwelling in the margins. What is the distance between imagination and action, lived realities and dreams? How can solidarities be forged in such circumstances? Uprising holds within its pages some answers and a deep conviction – for a better life, a more just world – and then reaches out and fights for it.The Island Community and Its OppressionAs a journalist, Anam visited the infamous "floating brothel" Banishanta in Bangladesh; her new novel, set on an isolated island "at the end of the country, in the middle of a river that emptied into the sea", fictionalises the island's community and ecological precarity. Here, a generation of daughters grow up watching their mothers trapped in sex work – "we knew that the work was something that was paid for in money, and also in bodies" – and wish a different life for themselves. The women are controlled by the cruel Amma, who was once herself sold into sex trafficking. The victim becomes the perpetrator – and the children are discerning enough to know that their mothers are "not here because they had done something bad, but because something bad had been done to them". The first lesson of the island? No one is coming to save you – and living here changes you, as inexorably as the rising tides.The island is a prison. The mothers are ghosts of their former selves. The children, witnessing the "sexing", are all too grown up, stripped of their innocence. By the time they are born, their mothers' memories have faded "like paint in the sun"; they live on the island "tied to" their daughters. What, or who, will it take to break free from these chains?Feminism and Climate Crisis in LiteratureWhen the waters rise, customers stay away. The mothers speculate: "the swirling river was keeping the smaller boats from making the journey"; "the land was cursed". In a last-ditch attempt to lure men back for business, Amma sends for a new girl. Little does she know that Kusum Khan's arrival will signal the beginning of the end. A girl from the city with a history of participating in protests against the Dictator, she doesn't acquiesce to the island's rules, as the others have been conditioned to; instead, she sows the seeds for what will grow into a life-altering act of resistance. The children start to believe that she is their saviour – maybe even Bon Bibi, a legendary guardian of the forest. A different life seems graspable, just beyond the island's shore. When the titular uprising at last arrives, it summons an all-consuming storm, washing over the island. And the reader, too, is ready to join the revolution – their fist in the open air.Uprising is a feminist novel ("here they were: a wall of women") and a protest novel ("The moment Kusum entered the protest, she felt as if she was becoming a small organ in a living, breathing thing"). It is a coming-of-age novel, and a response to the climate crisis; a story of sisterhood protecting, and failing to protect; of structural inequality and the rotten core of patriarchal corruption; of unlucky women in an unfair world. "When the men came to reclaim the island, we stood rooted in place with our eyes closed, unable to watch. We stood rooted in place with our eyes open, unable to stop watching." While the mothers and daughters in Anam's fictional world are victims of specific generational violence, this observation can be applied to humanity at large: we are all watching – frozen, complicit – as injustices rise the world over.The Power of Rage and Radical HopeThrough her unwaveringly political and unflinchingly forthright novel, Anam shows the power of rage and radical hope. A new world can burn bright from the fires of injustice – and here, it's the mothers that hold the match.

Why Labor Opted for a Partial Negative Gearing RetentionIn a video released alongside the 2026 budget, Treasury Minister Jim Chalmers clarified that the Labor Party chose not to abolish negative gearing outright but to retain it in a limited form. The move is presented as a compromise between fiscal responsibility and the political imperative to support property investors.Chalmers' Explanation in the Budget VideoThe video highlighted three core arguments:Revenue Impact: A full repeal would shave billions off projected tax receipts, widening the budget deficit.Housing Supply: Negative gearing encourages investment in rental properties, which helps keep rental vacancy rates low.Electoral Considerations: Property owners constitute a key voter bloc in marginal seats.Budget Numbers Behind the DecisionThe 2026 budget projects a surplus of AUD 12.4 billion after accounting for existing tax measures. A total repeal of negative gearing was estimated to erode that surplus by roughly 5‑6 %, pushing the government toward a modest deficit. By scaling back the deduction to properties with annual losses below AUD 5,000, the Treasury expects to retain most of the fiscal headroom.Broader Political and Market ImpactRetaining a trimmed version of negative gearing sends several signals:It reassures investors that the government will not introduce abrupt policy shocks, stabilising the Australian housing market.It placates the Labor base in outer‑urban electorates where property investment is a significant income source.It leaves the door open for future reforms, such as tightening eligibility criteria or introducing a phased phase‑out.Outlook for Tax Policy and Housing AffordabilityAnalysts anticipate that the next budget cycle will revisit negative gearing as part of a broader tax‑fairness agenda. If fiscal pressures intensify, Labour may consider a gradual reduction rather than an immediate repeal, aiming to mitigate any sharp correction in property prices while still moving toward a more progressive tax system.