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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a stark warning that a further escalation in the Iran war could lead to a global recession, spiralling inflation, and a sharp backlash in financial markets. The Washington-based fund cited the economic damage from the Middle East conflict as steadily rising, prompting it to cut its growth forecasts for 2026.In its half-yearly update, the IMF predicted that the UK would suffer the sharpest growth downgrade and joint highest inflation rate in the G7 this year. Even if the fallout from soaring energy costs can be contained by the middle of 2026, the fund warned of a close call for a global recession under a worst-case 'severe scenario'.This severe scenario, involving a drawn-out war and persistently higher energy prices, would see the world face a global recession for only the fifth time since 1980. Oil prices jumped back above $100 (£74) a barrel on Monday amid choppy trading in global markets. The IMF's chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, noted that despite a temporary ceasefire, some damage is already done, and downside risks remain elevated.The IMF set out three possible scenarios for the war in its World Economic Outlook (WEO), including a central 'reference forecast' based on the assumption that disruption to the world economy from the war fades by mid-2026. This forecast predicts global growth would fall from 3.4% last year to 3.1% in 2026, a downgrade of 0.1 percentage points.Under the adverse scenario, with the global oil price remaining at $100 this year before falling back to $75 in 2027, growth would fall to 2.5% this year, and inflation would rise to 5.4%. In the severe scenario, with a lengthier, intensive war keeping the oil price above $110 into 2027, global growth would collapse to about 2%, a threshold widely seen as equivalent to a worldwide recession.The IMF urged countries to stage a coordinated response to the economic fallout from the war and called on central banks to remain vigilant. It also advised governments to focus on temporary and targeted measures to support businesses and households.

Nelson Mandela once claimed sport could spark hope where despair prevailed – a sentiment that now feels overly optimistic as climate change threatens every arena, from football pitches to alpine slopes.Extreme weather events are already cancelling competitions and rendering venues unplayable through floods, wildfires and storms. Rising heat and air‑pollution expose athletes to heat‑related illnesses, asthma and cardiovascular strain, while also increasing injury risk and diminishing performance for officials and spectators alike.Countries most vulnerable to climate impacts face the harshest sporting challenges. As Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley warned, athletes must compete on the conditions that exist, not on idealised pitches, while wealthier nations and governing bodies often look the other way.Historian David Goldblatt estimates sport’s carbon footprint rivals that of a small‑ to medium‑sized nation – roughly the emissions of Cuba to Poland. Yet the industry continues to chase growth, attracting sponsorship from fossil‑fuel giants and even entities reminiscent of the tobacco era.A 2024 “Dirty Money” report by the New Weather Institute revealed that state‑owned and private fossil‑fuel companies have poured at least $5.6 billion (£4.2 billion) into global sport across 205 active deals. The recent Milan‑Cortina Winter Olympics relied on oil major Eni to fund artificial snow, while the upcoming men’s football World Cup – labelled the “most polluting ever” by Scientists for Global Responsibility – will be plastered with ads from Aramco, the world’s largest corporate greenhouse‑gas emitter, with emissions projected to be 92 % higher than typical tournaments between 2010‑2022.Fans and grassroots organisations are pushing back. Groups such as Surfers Against Sewage, Fossil Free Football, FrontRunners and Protect Our Winters are mobilising, while clubs like Forest Green Rovers and athletes such as Australian cricket captain Pat Cummins are publicly denouncing fossil‑fuel ties.Alternative sponsorships are emerging: Northern Rail backs the Rugby Super League, Metrobank partners with cricket, and Oxford United’s limited‑edition shirt celebrates John Ruskin’s “Study of a Wild Rose,” linking sport to environmental heritage.“The Hotspot” aims to surface the most compelling stories, analyse data, and chart a path forward for sport in a warming world. As the planet races toward a climatic finish line, sport must deliver its own last‑second victory.This excerpt is from the inaugural issue of The Hotspot newsletter. To subscribe, visit this page and follow the instructions.

Evergrande's billionaire boss, Hui Ka Yan, has pleaded guilty to fraud charges after the collapse of the world's most indebted property developer. Hui, a former steelworker who rose to become one of China's richest people, pleaded guilty to charges including fundraising fraud, misuse of funds, and illegally taking public deposits.The property group has defaulted on most of its $300bn liabilities since 2021, emblematic of China's property sector woes that have long dragged on economic growth. Evergrande's failure to repay billions of dollars of wealth management products unleashed frustration among the lower and middle classes, many of whom had investments wiped out, provoking protests and threatening social stability.Hui and the company also face charges of illegally extending loans, fraudulently issuing securities, and bribery by units, with verdicts to be handed down later. The maximum penalties for illegal fundraising include jail for life and confiscation of property, while bribery can also bring life terms.In 2024, China's securities regulator fined Hui $6.6m and barred him from the securities market for life, after finding Evergrande's leading business had inflated earnings and committed securities fraud. Hui's net worth was estimated at $45.3bn in 2017, but dropped to $3bn by 2023.

The US naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Gulf has taken effect, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict between the US-Israeli coalition and Iran. The blockade, which began on Monday at 5:30 pm Iranian time, applies to any ships entering or departing Iranian ports or coastal areas.US Central Command (Centcom) did not make a formal announcement, but the move is seen as a test of economic endurance for both nations. The blockade aims to restrict Iran's oil exports and imports, potentially costing the country approximately $276 million a day in lost exports and disrupting $159 million a day in imports, according to Miad Maleki, a former US treasury official.Iran has warned that the blockade will lead to higher petrol prices, which could impact ordinary Americans. The country's parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, taunted the US, saying Americans would soon be nostalgic for $4-$5 gas. The current average petrol price in the US is $4.13 a gallon, up from $2.98 before the conflict began.The conflict has also drawn in other nations, with France planning to organize a conference to create a multinational mission to restore navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. However, Germany, Spain, Italy, Poland, and Greece have ruled out sending naval forces to support the blockade. The UK has also stated that it does not support the blockade and will not be drawn into the war.The situation remains volatile, with Iran threatening to retaliate if its ports are threatened, and the US warning that any Iranian attack boats approaching the US flotilla will be "immediately eliminated". The conflict has also sparked a war of words between US President Donald Trump and Pope Leo XIV, with the pope condemning the use of religious language to justify the war in Iran.

Iran's judiciary announced on Monday that the assets of Zahra Ghanbari, captain of the Iranian women's football team, have been released. This decision comes after Ghanbari initially sought asylum in Australia, only to later withdraw her claim and return to Iran. Ghanbari was among a group of six players and one backroom staff member who sought asylum in Australia in March, following their participation in the Women's Asian Cup. The move sparked controversy, particularly as it coincided with the escalating conflict between Iran, Israel, and the United States. Upon their return to Iran, Ghanbari and the other players were greeted as heroes in a special ceremony in central Tehran on March 19. The Iranian judiciary's decision to release Ghanbari's assets was made after she declared her innocence and changed her behavior. The release of Ghanbari's assets is significant, as Iranian authorities have been accused of pressuring athletes who compete abroad, threatening their families or seizing their property if they defect or make statements against the Islamic republic. Rights groups have repeatedly highlighted these concerns, citing cases where athletes have faced intimidation and coercion. In related developments, two Iranian women's footballers remain in Australia and have been training with the Brisbane Roar club. The controversy surrounding the team's asylum claims has unfolded against the backdrop of Iran's men's team preparing to play in the World Cup in the United States in June.

A shocking case of mistaken identity has come to light involving British Gas, a leading UK energy supplier. A homeowner, IW from Northampton, received a £571 bill for a flat they had never occupied or owned. The error occurred because British Gas's tracing agents mistakenly linked IW's address to that of a debtor.IW reported that British Gas opened an account in their name for the incorrect address and sent the hefty bill. When IW disputed the charge, British Gas declined to investigate further, citing a lack of proof that they did not live at the address in question. The company requested a tenancy agreement or mortgage statement, which IW could not provide as they had long since paid off their mortgage.The situation escalated when British Gas threatened IW with a debt collection agency. Despite IW providing bank statements as evidence of their innocence, British Gas ignored this documentation and did not question the competence of the tracing agent used to locate debtors.It was only after IW got involved and contacted The Guardian that British Gas belatedly apologized and removed IW from its records. This incident highlights significant flaws in British Gas's processes for handling customer complaints and verifying identities.The case serves as a cautionary tale for consumers to vigorously dispute incorrect charges and to be aware of their rights when dealing with energy suppliers and debt collectors.

A 20‑year‑old Texas man has been formally charged after surveillance footage captured him hurling a molotov cocktail at the San Francisco home of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and attempting to ignite the AI firm’s headquarters.The FBI affidavit, filed in federal court on Monday, identifies the suspect as Daniel Moreno‑Gama. Police say he traveled from Texas to California, carrying multiple incendiary devices, kerosene and a lighter, before the arrest.Moreno‑Gama was also found with a self‑authored “anti‑AI” manifesto that prosecutors cite as evidence of motive. The document contained explicit threats toward Altman, prompting U.S. Attorney Craig Missakian to warn that, if the evidence shows an intent to influence public policy or coerce officials, the case will be pursued as domestic terrorism.He faces charges of attempted damage and destruction of property by means of explosives and possession of an unregistered firearm. Conviction could result in a mandatory minimum of five years, up to 20 years for the explosives count, and up to 10 years for the firearm charge.The incident adds to growing scrutiny of OpenAI’s role in national security, especially amid debate over a proposed U.S. government deal to deploy its artificial‑intelligence technology in classified military operations.Authorities recovered several incendiary devices at the scene, and court records indicate Moreno‑Gama told security personnel at the headquarters that he intended to burn the building and harm its occupants.

In a forceful statement released on Monday, a panel of 13 United Nations experts demanded that Israel halt all attacks on displaced Palestinians sheltering in Gaza and cease the accelerating forced‑displacement campaign in the occupied West Bank. Israeli air strikes in March set fire to tents housing Gaza’s internally displaced people, causing numerous fatalities, the experts noted, describing the tactic as part of a broader strategy to make life untenable for Palestinians. “This cycle of displacement, terror, and targeted attacks serves an ultimate purpose: to make life unbearable for Palestinians and permanently force them from their land,” the panel declared, underscoring the systematic nature of the violence. The experts warned that the targeting of makeshift shelters violates international humanitarian law and amounts to a grave breach, given that the majority of Gaza’s population has already endured multiple forced transfers. Beyond the immediate danger of bombardment, civilians living in tents face severe health threats—including hunger, exposure to freezing temperatures, flooding, and a lack of basic services. Women and children, the panel stressed, bear a disproportionate share of deprivation. Turning to the West Bank, the panel condemned what it described as a “sharp escalation in forced displacement” driven by the Israeli army and “state‑backed settler terrorism.” Daily attacks have resulted in killings, injuries, and the widespread destruction of homes, farmland, and livelihoods. According to a 2025 report from the UN Human Rights Office, more than 36,000 Palestinians have been forcibly displaced amid the expansion of illegal settlements, a figure the experts say illustrates a broader policy of ethnic cleansing across the occupied Palestinian territory. The panel urged Israel to end all forced‑displacement activities in the West Bank and to facilitate the safe return of those uprooted. It also called on the international community to uphold its legal obligations, launch independent investigations, and refrain from providing assistance that could enable the continuation of the occupation. The 13‑member panel includes UN special rapporteurs such as Francesca Albanese (occupied Palestinian territory), Paula Gaviria Betancur (rights of internally displaced persons), Michael Fakhri (right to food), and Reem Alsalem (violence against women and girls).

The European Union has issued a stern warning that peace in the region is impossible while Lebanon is gripped by crisis. The statement comes amid escalating tensions and instability in the country.According to the EU, the ongoing turmoil in Lebanon poses a significant threat to regional peace and stability. The international community has been closely monitoring the developments in Lebanon, with many expressing concerns over the potential for further escalation.The EU's statement underscores the complexity of the situation in Lebanon and the need for a peaceful resolution to the crisis. The organization has called for calm and restraint from all parties involved, emphasizing the importance of finding a diplomatic solution to the conflict.