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The Lead: The Derby 2026 Unfolds at Epsom The 247th running of The Derby, the most famous Classic in horse racing, is underway at Epsom Downs with 14 runners vying for the prestigious title. Guardian's Greg Wood provides live coverage, previews, and expert picks for the day's major races including the Derby Stakes, Dash Handicap, and Coronation Cup. The Event Details: Race Previews and Analysis The Derby Stakes, scheduled for 4pm BST, features 14 horses competing to become the 247th horse on the Derby's roll of honor. Recent rain has affected the going, adding an element of unpredictability to the race. Other key races include the 3.15pm Dash Handicap and the 2.40pm Coronation Cup, which features last year's winner, last year's Derby winner, and the officially top-rated horse on the planet, Calandagan. The Data Analysis: Form Guide and Key Contenders For the Derby Stakes, several horses stand out based on recent form. Benvenuto Cellini's Chester Vase win and the competitive Lingfield race between Maltese Cross and Bay Of Brilliance are noted as strong form indicators. Item could become the fifth Dante winner this century to add the Derby to his record, while Ancient Egypt is ready to live up to his pedigree and price tag for Kia Joorabchian and Charlie Johnston. In the Dash Handicap, a field of 20 runners will compete over the minimum five-furlong trip. The high numbers generally hold sway in races at this distance, and the speedy nature of the track means the pace tends to hold up. Kinswoman, the favorite, and Lexington Buzz are expected to perform well, with Irish raider Eclairage also showing promise. The Coronation Cup features an exceptional lineup, including last year's winner Lambourn, last year's Derby winner Jan Brueghel, and the World's Best Racehorse in 2025, Calandagan, who has been on an unbeaten five-race spree at the sport's highest level. The Impact Analysis: Significance in the Horse Racing Calendar The Derby remains one of the most prestigious races in the global horse racing calendar, attracting the best three-year-old thoroughbreds from around the world. The event's cultural significance extends beyond the sport, with celebrities like Mary Berry and Jodie Kidd attending, adding to the pageantry and tradition of the occasion. The rain-softened ground conditions have added an element of unpredictability, potentially favoring horses with proven form on similar surfaces. This could lead to surprises and potentially create new stars in the sport. The Prediction: Expert Picks and Race Outlook Greg Wood has made his selections for the day's key races. For the Derby Stakes, he favors Bay Of Brilliance as an each-way option, citing the strength of the Lingfield form and the advantage of stall position for the horse. For the Dash Handicap, he recommends Eclairage from stall 14, noting the tendency for high-numbered horses to perform well in this race. In the Coronation Cup, Calandagan is the clear favorite, with Wood expecting him to continue his unbeaten streak at the sport's highest level.

The Lead The trade war between the US and China is expected to be a long and complex one, with far-reaching consequences for the global economy. While the US goal of curbing China's export dominance is justified, Trump's strategy of scattershot protectionism and belligerence against potential allies is flawed. China's Export Juggernaut China accounts for about a third of the world's manufacturing output, and its share of global manufacturing exports has risen from 3% to 20% over the past few decades. The country has become a dominant player in the global supply chain, with a near-monopoly on critical commodities and products such as pharmaceutical components, critical minerals, and essential chips. The Data Analysis China's share of global manufacturing output: about 33% China's share of global manufacturing exports: 20% China's current account surplus: 3.8% of GDP (official), up to 5% (according to some analysts) The Impact Analysis The trade war will come at a cost to economic wellbeing, with prices of consumer goods rising as countries block imports from China. Manufacturers will have to cope with pricier Chinese inputs, and Chinese exporters will have a harder time finding markets to place their products. The risk of China leveraging its dominance in critical commodities and products to retaliate against countries that block its products or seek to shake its dominance is high. The Prediction A more coordinated approach with allies and targeted tariffs could help mitigate economic pain. However, even a better strategy will not avoid economic pain entirely. The US, Europe, and other major economies will need to build alternative sources of critical commodities and other inputs, a process that will be slow, tortuous, and dangerous.

England's Men Face New Zealand in Florida Amidst Pitch ConcernsEngland's men's team begins their final preparations for the World Cup 2026 with a warm-up match against New Zealand in Florida. The Three Lions arrived in the state on Monday and are currently acclimatising to the intense heat. However, concerns have already been raised regarding the quality of the playing surface they will encounter.Women's Team Suffers Heaviest Defeat in 17 YearsIn a significant blow to their qualification hopes, the Lionesses suffered a 4-0 defeat to Spain in their recent qualifier. This result marks a historic low point for the team under manager Sarina Wiegman.It was England's heaviest defeat in 17 years, last occurring in the Euro 2009 final against Germany.It was the first time the team conceded four goals in a World Cup qualifier.England needed only a draw to secure automatic qualification for Brazil.Qualification Outlook Shifts DramaticallyThe 4-0 loss means England will likely have to navigate additional playoff rounds to reach the tournament, a stark contrast to their previous automatic qualification hopes.Scotland's Buildup ContinuesMeanwhile, Scotland is preparing to face Bolivia later today as they continue their own preparations for the global event.

Campaigners and industry bodies are urging the UK government to resist calls for another relaxation of the zero‑emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate after an analysis showed that the 2024 rule changes could add 17 million tonnes of CO₂ to the atmosphere by 2030. Campaigners Warn Against Further Weakening of the UK ZEV Mandate The original ZEV mandate, introduced in 2023, required manufacturers to raise electric‑car sales to 80% by 2030. Labour’s 2024 revisions added “flexibilities” allowing higher sales of plug‑in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which combine a small battery with a petrol engine. Projected 17 Million Tonnes Extra CO₂ Emissions by 2030 Industry analysis shows an additional 59 billion miles driven by petrol and diesel cars and vans compared with forecasts made before the ZEV changes. This mileage increase translates to roughly 17 million tonnes of direct CO₂ emissions – comparable to the annual output of a small country such as Croatia. Sales of PHEVs rose 48% this year, reflecting manufacturers’ response to the new flexibilities. The Department for Transport (DfT) attributes most of the extra mileage to the mandate changes, noting that fewer PHEV owners use the electric mode. Consequences for the Charging Industry and Energy Transition Fewer fully electric vehicles on the road threatens the business case for charge‑point investors. Vicky Read, chief executive of ChargeUK, warned that billions of pounds of infrastructure spending are predicated on the original ZEV forecasts, and another rollback could “pull the rug from beneath the charging sector.” Colin Walker of the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit cautioned that further weakening could push consumers toward PHEVs that cost “hundreds, even thousands, of pounds a year more to own and run than an electric car.” Outlook: Potential Policy Paths and Emissions Trajectory The government has pledged a review of the ZEV mandate by early 2027. If the flexibilities are fully exploited, the headline target of 33% electric sales this year could fall to as low as 7%, according to think‑tank New AutoMotive. Stakeholders such as Mike Hawes (Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders) argue for a “review of the transition” to align ambition with market realities, while the government reiterates its commitment to ban new non‑zero‑emission car and van sales by 2035 and is investing over £7.5bn in EV market growth and infrastructure.

The EU Sanctions and Settler Leaders’ Defiant ResponseWhen the European Union announced a new tranche of sanctions targeting Israeli settler organisations and their leaders, the reaction was unexpectedly celebratory. Regavim, co‑founded by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, and activist Daniella Weiss of the Nachala movement both dismissed the penalties as a “badge of honour” and “ridiculous”. Their statements signal a broader refusal to be swayed by diplomatic pressure.Sanctioned Entities and the Scope of EU MeasuresThe EU’s package targeted:Regavim – a settler‑rights NGO linked to Bezalel SmotrichNachala – led by Daniella Weiss, known for border‑area conferences on settlement expansionAmana – a cooperative that finances West Bank settlementsMeir Deutsch – director of RegavimIn total, four entities and three individuals were listed. The sanctions complement earlier actions by the United Kingdom, Canada and other allies that targeted Smotrich for alleged support of violence in the West Bank.Casualties and Displacement Figures Since October 2023Human‑rights monitors have documented a sharp rise in settler‑related violence after the October 2023 Hamas attack. Reported figures include:1,168 Palestinians killed in the occupied West Bank12,666 injured33,000 displacedNearly 23,000 Palestinians detained, many without chargeThese statistics illustrate the human cost accompanying the settlement push.Implications for the Israeli‑Palestinian Conflict and International PressureAnalysts argue that the EU’s “toothless” sanctions may inadvertently grant domestic prestige to hard‑line settlers. The lack of tangible repercussions—settlers rarely travel to Europe and thus feel little personal impact—means the measures are unlikely to curb expansion or hold perpetrators accountable. The article notes a “closed loop” of entitlement, where settler ideology, state support, and military backing reinforce each other, sustaining a climate of impunity.Outlook: Prospects for Settlement Expansion and Diplomatic LeverageGiven the settlers’ defiant stance and the Israeli government’s ongoing endorsement—exemplified by plans for the E1 corridor linking East Jerusalem to Maale Adumim—future settlement growth appears probable. Without stronger, enforceable international actions, the EU sanctions risk remaining symbolic. Observers warn that continued violence and displacement will likely persist, further complicating any diplomatic pathway toward a two‑state solution.

The Lead: Aviation Leaders Converge in Rio Amid Fuel CrisisDespite concerns about soaring jet fuel prices and geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains, aviation industry leaders have gathered in Rio de Janeiro for the annual International Air Transport Association (Iata) AGM. The summit, which was abandoned during the Covid years and held online since, marks a return to in-person gatherings as the industry continues to navigate unprecedented challenges.The Fuel Crisis: Rising Costs and Supply Chain ChallengesJet fuel prices have surged dramatically, climbing from just over $80 a barrel at the last summit in Delhi to over $140 a barrel currently. Despite the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran affecting oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, airlines have largely maintained operations. European carriers, initially seen as most vulnerable, have continued flying full schedules ahead of the lucrative peak season, with new fuel sources found in the US and West Africa to address supply concerns.The Financial Impact: Billions in Additional Costs and Market TurmoilAccording to aviation analysts Cirium, jet fuel constituted over a quarter of global airlines' costs in 2025. Every dollar increase per barrel adds approximately $3 billion to the annual fuel bill. In response, about 6% of available seats have been removed from airline schedules worldwide over the past month. Many major carriers have hedged their fuel supplies to mitigate price shocks, though some like easyJet have suspended hedging due to extreme volatility. The financial pressures have already resulted in easyJet becoming a takeover target for US private equity firm Castlelake.The Industry Transformation: Geopolitical Shifts and Market ConsolidationThe US-Israel-Iran conflict has particularly impacted Gulf carriers whose geographic position and rapid growth had reshaped global travel patterns. Emirates, one of the industry's most influential players, will be an unusually quiet presence at the Rio summit with its chief executive absent. Meanwhile, environmental concerns about aviation's carbon footprint have taken a backseat to immediate financial pressures, though fuel efficiency remains a priority as it directly impacts costs. The industry is also facing potential consolidation, with easyJet's tumbling share price attracting takeover interest and other carriers potentially vulnerable to acquisition or bankruptcy.The Future Outlook: Navigating Uncertainty and Leadership TransitionAs the industry faces prolonged uncertainty, Iata's director general Willie Walsh has announced his departure after leading the organization since 2020, with plans to take over as CEO of India's Indigo airline. Walsh had previously championed sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) as the industry's only viable solution but has since criticized governments for imposing mandates while production has faltered. The summit in Rio will likely focus on immediate survival strategies rather than long-term environmental goals, with airlines demonstrating resilience despite the challenges. The question remains how long this resilience can continue as fuel prices remain elevated and geopolitical tensions persist.

The Week's TV HighlightsCape Fear (Apple TV) – Javier Bardem and Amy Adams star in a bold remake of the Scorsese classic. Reviewer Lucy Mangan praised Bardem's performance.Emma Barnett: Fighting Endometriosis (BBC iPlayer) – Today presenter confronts the reality of endometriosis, affecting 1 in 10 women. Reviewed by Rachel Aroesti.Tip Toe (Channel 4) – Russell T Davies tackles homophobia and politics with strong performances from Alan Cumming and David Morrissey. Reviewed by Lucy Mangan.Film Picks of the WeekEnzo – Cannes‑acclaimed drama by Laurent Cantet and Robin Campillo exploring teenage rebellion. Reviewed by Peter Bradshaw.Ghost in the Machine – Documentary examining AI’s roots in right‑wing ideology and eugenics. Reviewed by Leslie Felperin.Acting – Sophie Fiennes’ documentary on Cheek By Jowl’s Declan Donnellan and Shakespeare’s Macbeth. Reviewed by Peter Bradshaw.

The Week's Entertainment LandscapeThis week offers a diverse range of cultural experiences for both home and out-of-home entertainment. From blockbuster movies and live music performances to art exhibitions and streaming content, there's something for every taste and preference.Cinema HighlightsTheaters are featuring several notable releases this week. Nicholas Galitzine stars in Masters of the Universe, bringing the 1980s Mattel hero to life with Jared Leto as the evil Skeletor. Erupcja offers a lo-fi hipster film experience directed by Pete Ohs, while the original team behind Scary Movie returns with a new parody. Robin Campillo completes his friend Laurent Cantet's final film Enzo, a coming-of-age story.Live Music PerformancesFKA twigs brings her brain-melting art-pop spectacular to The O2 in London, featuring material from her recent albums. Gottwood festival celebrates its 15th year with electronic music performances. Norwegian bassist Arild Andersen joins Rob Luft and Daniel Sommer for a European jazz tour. Garsington Opera presents Monteverdi's Il Ritorno d'Ulisse, directed by John Caird.Art ExhibitionsTate Modern hosts a major retrospective of Argentinian artist Julio Le Parc, showcasing his immersive installations and light sculptures from the 1950s to 2020s. Nottingham Contemporary presents Chico da Silva, exploring the Brazilian artist's psychedelic world of mythical creatures.Stage ProductionsThe week offers diverse theatrical experiences, including Garsington Opera's Monteverdi production and various performances across the UK.Streaming ContentHome entertainment options include new releases across various streaming platforms, catering to diverse tastes and preferences.Gaming ReleasesNew gaming options become available this week, offering entertainment for gaming enthusiasts across various platforms.Music AlbumsNew album releases provide fresh listening experiences for music fans across multiple genres.Intellectual EntertainmentFor those seeking brain food, the week offers various options including documentaries, podcasts, and educational content that stimulate the mind.

The Reversal of Fifa's Water Bottle Policy Fifa has again amended its water bottle policy for the World Cup in North America, allowing fans to bring in one sealed, disposable 590ml bottle into stadiums. The Backlash Against the Initial Ban Ticket holders had previously been permitted an empty, transparent and reusable bottle up to one litre but an update earlier in the week confirmed reusable bottles were no longer permitted. The move was criticised by fan groups and scientific experts, who were already concerned about the impact of extreme heat on the welfare of spectators. The Data Analysis: Water Bottle Sales and Pricing Fans attending last summer’s Club World Cup in the United States had been permitted to bring empty bottles in with them. Water was also on sale at Club World Cup stadiums, at prices between £3 and £4.50. The Impact Analysis: Health Risks and Financial Concerns The UK prime minister, Sir Keir Starmer, branded the measure “wrong” and said it was “about making money”. He added: “It’s just wrong. And I can’t help but think that it’s about making money. So you can’t bring plastic bottles in but you can buy a bottle of water when you get in the crowd? And then it’ll be expensive.” The Prediction: Future Policy and Fan Experience Fifa has partially backtracked on the heavy-handed policy as a post from the governing body said: “All fans will be permitted to bring in one, soft, plastic, 20 ounces (590ml), factory sealed disposable water bottle into any Fifa World Cup 2026 match in the USA and Canada.” Heimo Schirgi, the World Cup 2026 chief operating officer, added: “What is not allowed are hard-sided resealable water containers, which could pose a safety and security risk.”