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At least 50 new accounts on Polymarket, a prediction market platform, made substantial bets on a US-Iran ceasefire on Tuesday, resulting in profits of hundreds of thousands of dollars. These bets were placed despite escalating rhetoric from Donald Trump and few signals of an imminent deal.An analysis of blockchain data shows that one wallet, created on Tuesday at 10am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8¢ and cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another wallet, which joined the platform on April 6, won $125,500.The trading pattern of newly created accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets has raised questions about insider trading and the need for regulation in prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators and representatives have introduced legislation to broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets.“This is why these markets need regulation,” said Todd Phillips, a professor at Georgia State University. “We can’t have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets.”Polymarket and other industry players, including Kalshi, have acknowledged the need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms.

Pakistan's diplomatic efforts culminated in a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, agreed upon just hours before US President Donald Trump's deadline to destroy Iran's 'civilisation'. The ceasefire was announced by Trump on his social media platform, Truth Social, and confirmed by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.The breakthrough was facilitated by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, who engaged in extensive diplomacy with both sides. Sharif publicly announced the ceasefire, inviting both delegations to Islamabad for further negotiations. The talks are expected to begin on Friday, potentially involving a US delegation led by Vice President JD Vance.The conflict, which began on February 28, had killed over 2,000 people in Iran and disrupted roughly a fifth of the world's oil supplies. Pakistan's role as a mediator was seen as a significant diplomatic achievement, with both Washington and Tehran acknowledging its efforts.The ceasefire is not a peace deal, and key differences remain unresolved, including Iran's uranium enrichment and the Strait of Hormuz. However, analysts view Pakistan's role as a major shift in its diplomatic efforts, positioning itself at the centre of a significant diplomatic initiative.

President Donald Trump has stated that Lebanon was not included in the ceasefire between the United States and Iran, contradicting Pakistan's claim that the truce covers the entire region. This development comes after Israel launched a massive assault on Lebanon, resulting in hundreds of casualties in densely populated areas.Trump described the Israeli conflict with Hezbollah as a “separate skirmish,” indicating that the US-Iran agreement does not extend to Lebanon due to Hezbollah's presence. “Because of Hezbollah, they were not included in the deal,” he told PBS. “That’ll get taken care of, too. It’s all right.”The exclusion of Lebanon from the truce risks jeopardizing the ceasefire across the region. Iranian news outlets have reported that Tehran may take serious steps in response to the Israeli attacks, including potentially suspending oil tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iranian officials have not confirmed these reports.Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had announced that the two-week truce covers the entire region, specifically mentioning Lebanon. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asserted that attacks against Lebanon would continue, despite the US-Iran agreement.Israel's recent assault on Lebanon has compounded the humanitarian and displacement crises, with over 1.2 million people forced to flee their homes. The attacks included a strike on a funeral in the Bekaa Valley town of Shmestar, killing at least 20 people. Lebanon’s Prime Minister Nawaf Salam called on the international community to intervene and end the aggressions.

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World Athletics has announced the postponement of the Doha Diamond League, citing concerns for athlete and spectator safety as the US-Israel war on Iran continues to impact the Middle East. The event, originally scheduled for May 8, has been rescheduled for June 19, pending a favorable safety and security situation in the region.The decision to postpone the event was made in the interest of ensuring a safe and secure competition for athletes, media, and spectators. World Athletics has been closely monitoring the situation in Doha and working with local organizers, Qatari authorities, and other stakeholders to assess the risks.The escalating tensions in the Middle East, including missile and drone attacks on Gulf states, have prompted the postponement. Despite a two-week ceasefire deal between Iran and the United States, mediated by Pakistan, the region remains volatile.The Doha Diamond League will now take place at the Khalifa International Stadium, a temperature-regulated venue with air cooling vents, which previously hosted the World Athletics Championships in 2019 and the FIFA World Cup 2022.The event is part of the 2026 Wanda Diamond League season, which will begin in Shanghai on May 16 and conclude with the Diamond League final in Brussels on September 5. The Doha meeting will be the eighth leg of the season, falling between the Bislett Games in Oslo on June 10 and the Meeting de Paris on June 28.

The recent two-week ceasefire announced by US President Donald Trump in the war on Iran has sent shockwaves through Israel. The move has been met with criticism from Israel's opposition leader, Yair Lapid, who called it one of the greatest 'political disasters in all of our history'. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office issued a statement supporting the US decision, claiming that 'Iran no longer poses a nuclear, missile and terror threat to America, Israel, Iran's Arab neighbours and the world.' However, Netanyahu's war aims of preventing 'Iran from developing nuclear weapons' and creating 'the conditions for the Iranian people so they can remove the cruel regime of tyranny' remain unachieved.Despite significant military successes over the past 40 days of attacks on Iran, neither of Netanyahu's goals has been achieved. The Iranian regime is still in place, its ballistic missile programme could be rebuilt quickly, and it still has 440kg of enriched uranium at 60 percent purity, enough for 10 bombs.Analysts say that Iran has emerged stronger as a result of the war, with key victories including the survival of the Iranian government and its decision to close the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's key energy arteries. The ceasefire has also given Iran an opportunity to continue with newly imposed levies on ships for safe passage through the Strait.Criticism of Netanyahu's handling of the war has been swift, with Ofer Cassif of the left-wing Hadash party saying that the prime minister has 'failed politically, failed strategically, and didn't meet a single one of the goals that he himself set'. Ahron Bregman, a senior teaching fellow at the Department for War Studies at King's College London, said that 'Israel achieved almost nothing tangible' and that the ceasefire has 'strained the US relationship'.

The United States' newly disclosed arrangement to transfer certain detainees to third‑country destinations has triggered a wave of criticism across the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Local authorities and human‑rights groups argue that the deal undermines the DRC's sovereignty and raises serious concerns about the treatment of deportees. While details of the agreement remain limited, the backlash underscores growing tensions over migration policies that involve multiple nations. Critics in the DRC are calling for greater transparency and for the United States to reassess the humanitarian implications of the deportation scheme. Stakeholders emphasize that any such arrangement must comply with international law and respect the rights of individuals facing removal, warning that failure to do so could damage diplomatic relations between the two countries.

Hours after Iran and the United States announced a two-week ceasefire, several Gulf nations have reported missile and drone attacks on their territories. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) said its air defences were actively engaging incoming missiles and drones from Iran.The UAE’s Defence Ministry stated that the sounds of explosions heard across the country were caused by air defence systems intercepting ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and unmanned aerial vehicles. Kuwait also reported intercepting a wave of Iranian drones launched since 8am (05:00 GMT), with some targeting vital oil facilities, power stations, and water desalination plants, causing serious infrastructure damage.Kuwait’s Defence Ministry said it dealt with a total of 28 drones, while Bahrain’s Ministry of Interior reported alleged Iranian attacks that injured two people and damaged several houses. Explosions were heard in Bahrain’s capital, Manama, with smoke rising from an area on Sitra Island that hosts Bahrain’s principal energy facilities.Iran has not responded to the claims by the Gulf nations. Meanwhile, Iranian state television reported that an oil refinery on the country’s Lavan Island came under attack, with firefighters working to contain the blaze. The US-Iran ceasefire was agreed upon barely an hour before US President Donald Trump’s deadline to obliterate Iran was set to expire.Gulf countries have faced repeated drone and missile barrages from Iran over recent weeks in response to the US and Israeli strikes that began on February 28. Iran targeted fossil fuel infrastructure in the oil-rich Gulf nations while effectively closing the strategic Strait of Hormuz to shipping, through which one-fifth of global oil usually passes.

The United States and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with Iran reopening the strategic Strait of Hormuz and talks set to begin in Islamabad, Pakistan. The agreement was reached after a request from Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and pressure from China.Iran's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abbas Araghchi, confirmed that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be ensured for two weeks through coordination with the country's armed forces. Under the agreement, Iran and Oman will be allowed to charge transit fees on passing ships, with Tehran planning to use the revenue for post-war reconstruction.The ceasefire was agreed upon just an hour before US President Donald Trump's deadline to escalate the conflict expired. Trump's move followed a request from Pakistan's Prime Minister, who urged Washington to extend its deadline for a deal and called on Iran to reopen the strait. The breakthrough came after talks with Pakistan's leadership, which had pushed for a ceasefire.Iran has proposed a 10-point peace plan, which includes lifting sanctions, creating a war-loss fund, a potential US troop withdrawal from the Gulf, and recognition of Iran's right to enrich uranium in exchange for a pledge not to build nuclear weapons. However, it is unclear whether the US has agreed to any of these proposals.The ceasefire has triggered street celebrations in Tehran and Baghdad, with Iranian leaders declaring the conflict is ending 'on Iran's terms'. However, some citizens remain skeptical, warning the US and Israel may be using the pause to 'buy time' and regroup.The agreement has also had an impact on the global economy, with crude prices falling below $100 after Trump's announcement. However, analysts remain cautious, with markets in 'wait-and-see mode' as a 'big gap' remains in negotiations.