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It's been 12 months since Donald Trump's 'liberation day' on April 2, 2025, when the US president introduced tariffs on nearly every country the US did business with. The move sent shockwaves through the global economy, causing chaos in Washington and beyond. Experts say that if Trump had spent the last 14 months on the golf course instead of in the White House, the US economy would be in a better place. The wholesale slashing of government jobs and defunding of US aid agencies had already signaled that Trump was in a hurry to upset institutions he considered profligate or useless. Investors quickly understood that chaos was an essential tool in Trump's armoury. Almost as soon as he was inaugurated, there was a steady decline in the value of the dollar against other currencies. Investors sold assets denominated in dollars and bought assets elsewhere: Europe, Asia, South America. Dario Perkins, the head of global research at the consultancy TS Lombard, said: 'If you think that discouraging investors from buying assets in the US is a victory, then you don’t believe in a growing economy.' He added that Trump's policies had led to a decline in US manufacturing jobs and a growing trade deficit. The data supports Perkins' claims. US companies stopped hiring almost as soon as liberation day was announced. Significant revisions in February to data covering 2025 pushed payroll employment down by 403,000 jobs, resulting in the addition of just 181,000 jobs last year. This small boost is set against the 163 million people who are employed in the US. Russ Mould, the investment director of the British stockbroker AJ Bell, said: 'America is still home to the world’s largest economy and its reserve currency, as well as the globe’s largest equity and bond markets, but investors continue to reassess their exposure one year on from liberation day.' The next few months of steadily increasing confidence levels followed probably the calmest period in the second Trump presidency. But sentiment began to fall again in the autumn as the White House battled with Congress over the federal budget deficit and much of the public sector was shut down. A poll by the University of Michigan showed consumer confidence at a near record low at the end of 2025. A six-month moving average produced by the Conference Board showed every generation, from baby boomers to gen Xers, had lost confidence in the economy over the past year. Trump’s liberation day executive order stated: 'The decline of US manufacturing capacity threatens the US economy in other ways, including through the loss of manufacturing jobs.' However, the US manufacturing sector shed 100,000 jobs between January 2025 and March 2026. The ratio of manufacturing workers to total nonfarm employment fell to the lowest point since 1939. Bryan Riley, the director of the National Taxpayers Union Foundation’s free trade initiative, said: 'One year after liberation day, the evidence is in. Tariffs failed even by the Trump administration’s own terms. They did not shrink the trade deficit, did not revitalise manufacturing and did not help farmers. It would be a mistake to replace one set of failed tariffs with another.' Some major US companies have redirected their investments to Europe, but China has proved to be one of the main beneficiaries. In the year to February 2026, China’s industrial profits increased by 15.2%. It's a boom that Beijing will struggle to repeat should Chinese companies face fuel and energy shortages and price hikes. But the decline of two major powers can only be to China’s gain.

When billionaire hedge‑fund manager Chris Rokos announced a £190 million contribution to the University of Cambridge, the move instantly became the largest single donation to any UK university in modern history. The funds will establish a new “school of government” aimed at bridging policy, science and emerging technologies. Rokos, a 55‑year‑old Oxford graduate, has amassed an estimated £2.6 billion fortune, primarily through his firm Rokos Capital Management (RCM), which he founded in 2015 after a high‑profile stint at Brevan Howard. RCM now oversees **over £22 billion** in assets, employs roughly 350 staff, and operates from offices in London, New York, Singapore and Abu Dhabi. In the most recent fiscal year ending March, Rokos paid himself nearly £500 million, according to Companies House filings, reflecting the firm’s strong performance amid volatile markets. Beyond finance, Rokos has kept a remarkably low public profile. He famously declined to provide a photograph when launching a £500 million fund in 2007, and he has avoided media attention despite owning one of England’s most expensive private residences. The £175 million refurbishment of the Grade I‑listed Tottenham House in Wiltshire – featuring a tennis pavilion, private cinema, basement squash court and a proposed “subterranean family link” to a pool house – has drawn local council scrutiny but stands as a tangible testament to his wealth. Rokos’s career trajectory began in banking at UBS and Goldman Sachs, moving to Credit Suisse where he was recruited by Alan Howard. He later joined the founding team of Brevan Howard in 2002, generating roughly $4 billion (≈£3 billion) in investor profits and about £600 million for himself before departing in 2012. His philanthropic philosophy emphasizes diversity of thought. In a video released by Cambridge, Rokos warned that a school populated only by “centrist, socially liberal” voices would be a failure, insisting on a broad spectrum of intellectual viewpoints. Earlier this year, RCM’s exploratory talks to bring former UK business secretary Peter Mandelson onto its advisory board collapsed after revelations about Mandelson’s connections to the late Jeffrey Epstein. Rokos also ranks among the UK’s biggest taxpayers and maintains a family office in Mayfair. A lingering legal dispute over a five‑year non‑compete clause with a former employer was settled out of court, clearing the way for his current venture. Overall, the record‑breaking Cambridge donation not only reshapes the university’s academic landscape but also underscores how hedge‑fund wealth is increasingly channeled into high‑impact philanthropy, blurring the lines between finance, education and public policy.

Donald Trump announced over the weekend that he wants to "take the oil in Iran" by seizing control of Kharg Island, the strategic outpost through which roughly 90% of Iran’s oil exports flow. Experts say the remark underscores a blatant disregard for international law and exemplifies what they term “fossil‑fuel imperialism.” Patrick Bigger, co‑director of the Transition Security Project, described the approach as a "might‑makes‑right" logic that is both "abhorrent and spectacularly miscalculated." Trump is slated to give an update on the Iran‑U.S. conflict on Wednesday. He previously claimed the war could end within weeks, a statement that sent the stock market soaring on expectations of de‑escalation. Iran, however, has insisted it needs guarantees against future attacks before halting its counter‑offensive. The fighting continues, highlighted by an Iranian strike on a fully loaded crude tanker in Dubai and threats to "blow up and completely obliterate" Iran’s energy infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened promptly. Kharg Island, a five‑mile strip that handles the bulk of Iran’s oil shipments, along with its power plants and oil wells, has been singled out by Trump. He told the Financial Times that U.S. forces should take over the island and the oil stored there. "My favorite thing is to take the oil in Iran," Trump said, adding that critics in the United States are "stupid people." Amir Handjani, an energy lawyer at the Quincy Institute, warned that the statement "completely discredited" the war’s stated objectives and revealed a classic play for natural resources. Handjani noted that Trump’s desire to seize Iranian oil is not new; he voiced similar ambitions in a 1988 interview while promoting The Art of the Deal, saying he would "do a number on Kharg Island" if elected. The former president has also floated comparable ideas for Iraq, Syria and Venezuela, suggesting the United States could appropriate their oil to offset war costs or bolster strategic reserves. Handjani emphasized that international law provides no framework for waging war to capture sovereign nations' natural resources. From a military perspective, taking Kharg Island would be extremely challenging. Iranian missile defenses have rendered regional U.S. bases inoperable, meaning any assault would likely require a parachute insertion of Marines into heavy fire, with the risk of massive Iranian retaliation. Handjani warned that such retaliation could target oil export terminals across the Persian Gulf, potentially driving crude prices to $200‑$300 per barrel and destabilising the global economy. The conflict has already caused the largest-ever disruption to global energy supplies, killing thousands and sparking sharp fuel‑price shocks. While consumers bear the brunt, major fossil‑fuel companies are enjoying windfall profits. Bigger noted that higher oil prices benefit oil majors and are being used as a pretext to expand U.S. drilling, further entrenching reliance on carbon‑intensive fuels. According to Bigger, Trump’s rhetoric reveals a belief that "fossil fuels are a linchpin of his domestic industrial strategy," and that controlling oil equates to controlling global power. He argues that this mindset threatens the international order and hampers the transition to cleaner energy.

The rising cost of gaming consoles and components, such as the recent £90 price hike of the PlayStation 5, can be attributed to the growing demand for computing power driven by artificial intelligence (AI) data centers. This surge in demand has led to increased prices for RAM and storage, affecting not only console manufacturers like Sony but also PC gamers.AI data centers require massive amounts of computing power to present information, which has driven up the demand and pricing for critical components. The 30% rise in the cost of living over the past half-decade, coupled with Nvidia's market cap hitting £5 trillion, highlights the significant economic impact of AI investment.The situation is further complicated by global economic disruptions, including the wars in Ukraine and Iran, which have contributed to rampant inflation. The video game industry, including major players like Valve, Nintendo, and Sony, is feeling the strain. Valve has run out of Steam Decks, and Nintendo has raised the price of physical games by $10 in the US.Critics argue that the focus on AI is misguided and that it doesn't need to be this way. As Chris Person notes, "I'm tired of these useless jackasses making the computer expensive." The emphasis on AI over consumer needs has led to frustration among gamers, who feel that technology is being forced into everything, making desirable products prohibitively expensive.The article concludes that the issue isn't just about Sony's greed but an indication of a closed economic system in big tech, which prioritizes profits over consumer needs. This shift has resulted in consumers paying more for products like the PlayStation 5 so that a select few can benefit financially from AI advancements.

The UK is facing a severe crisis with organised waste crime, which has become a lucrative industry due to lax regulations and enforcement. Between 8,000 to 13,000 illegal waste sites are scattered across the country, with some containing tens of thousands of tonnes of hazardous waste. The lack of effective regulation and enforcement has allowed criminal gangs to exploit the system, dumping waste in farmland, nature reserves, and even next to schools. The profits from these illegal activities are substantial, with £2,500 per articulated lorry load being a common gain. The consequences of inaction are dire, with illegal dumping costing the economy in England £1bn a year. The clean-up operation for these sites will likely cost tens of billions, not to mention the potential contamination of aquifers by toxic waste seepage. The government's recent 'waste crime action plan' has been criticized for not matching the scale of the crisis, with an extra £15m a year for waste crime enforcement being deemed insufficient. The issue highlights the need for stronger regulations and enforcement to combat organised waste crime.

China's economy is heavily reliant on oil refining, particularly in Shandong province, where independent 'teapot' refineries play a crucial role. These small refineries, often operating on thin margins, have been vital in keeping China's economy stable amidst the global energy crisis. The crisis began with US-Israel strikes on Iran, causing chaos in the Middle East and prompting Tehran to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for oil and gas flows. However, Iranian oil has continued to flow to China, with imports reaching about 1.6 million barrels per day. China's teapot refineries are now facing significant challenges due to rising crude prices. Iranian light crude, which was previously $11 cheaper than Brent crude, now has a discount as low as $2 per barrel. This has reduced the refineries' profits, with some workers fearing salary cuts. The impact is being felt across the industry, with Luqing Petrochemical, one of Shandong's prominent teapots, allegedly sanctioned by the US for buying Iranian oil. The company has started pressuring employees to quit by cutting salaries and relocating them to difficult work sites. The economic shock is also affecting ordinary people in China, with the government intervening in the retail fuel market to reduce a planned increase in petrol and diesel prices. However, if prices continue to rise, some teapot refineries may go bust. The long-term threat to the industry is not just the war but also the rise of electric vehicles, according to Uncle Wang, a petrol station owner in Weifang. As China transitions to cleaner energy sources, the demand for oil is expected to decline, posing a significant challenge to the teapot refineries and the thousands of people they employ.

Tim Sweeney, the CEO of Epic Games, the company behind the popular online game Fortnite, has issued an apology after facing backlash for laying off an employee with terminal brain cancer. The layoff not only resulted in the loss of income for the employee's family but also meant they would lose their life insurance. The controversy began when Jenni Griffin, the wife of Mike Prinke, a laid-off employee, shared their story on social media. She revealed that her husband was fighting terminal brain cancer and that the layoff meant they would lose his life insurance. Griffin expressed her concerns about the financial burden they would face, including the cost of a funeral and burial. Sweeney responded to Griffin's post, apologizing for not recognizing the situation earlier and promising that Epic Games would solve the insurance issue for the family. He stated that the company would provide a solution to ensure the family receives the necessary support. Epic Games announced the mass layoffs on March 24, citing a downturn in Fortnite engagement and a need to make major cuts to keep the company funded. Sweeney justified the layoffs by saying that the company was spending significantly more than it was making. Affected employees were offered a severance package, including at least four months of base pay, along with other benefits tied to tenure at the company. The layoffs have sparked controversy, with many questioning the decision to let go of over 1,000 employees despite the company's annual profits of $4 billion. Fortnite is the world's fourth most-played PC game, and the company's financial situation has raised concerns about the impact of the layoffs on employees and their families. Griffin's post, which included a picture of her husband's brain scan, quickly went viral, prompting Sweeney to respond and offer support to the family. The incident has highlighted the human impact of corporate decisions and the need for companies to consider the well-being of their employees.

The impending retirement of millions of small business owners, primarily from the baby boomer generation, poses a significant challenge for the US economy. According to the Small Business Administration, there are approximately 33 million small businesses in the US, but fewer than 7 million employ people. The rest are often solo operations or side gigs with little to no value if the owner were to suddenly disappear. Many small business owners, like the author, operate in a service-based economy, which accounts for 77% of US GDP. These businesses are often built around the owner, with no hard assets to sell, making them unattractive to potential buyers. The author's own business is a prime example, with no valuable assets, a virtual office, and remote employees. A recent McKinsey report predicts a "great ownership transfer" over the next 10 years, with as many as 6 million small and midsize American businesses changing hands. However, without intentional action, many viable small businesses may close rather than transfer ownership. So, what are the options for these business owners? They could hand down the business to their kids, but this only works if the kids are interested and capable. Another option is to build an actual business with value by changing billing models, enforcing contracts, and creating a sustainable brand. However, this approach can be exhausting, especially for older business owners. A more practical approach for service business owners is to build cash and save for retirement. The author has been pulling profits out of their company and saving, planning for retirement through their savings rather than their business. This transition presents a great opportunity for younger entrepreneurs, who could partner with or purchase businesses from older owners, leveraging their existing operations, customers, and relationships to make improvements and grow the business.

The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has entered its fourth week, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining effectively closed. This has led to a broadening of the global energy crisis, with the economic outlook darkening across Asia, Europe, and beyond.Japan has responded by releasing 80 million barrels of oil from its national reserves, enough to last for 45 days. The country's reliance on Middle Eastern crude oil imports stands at 90 percent.The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has warned that the conflict will have a significant impact on the UK economy, predicting inflation of 4 percent this year. UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper has stated that Iran cannot be allowed to hold the global economy hostage.The uncertainty surrounding Trump's policy on Iran has led to the emergence of the TACO trade, an acronym that stands for Trump Always Chickens Out. This phenomenon refers to investors betting that the US president will back down from his threats, resulting in profits for those who bought in.Observers note that Trump's inconsistent messaging has created an opportunity for investors to bet on his policy reversals. For example, Trump extended his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz from 48 hours to five days, and later promised to hold off from attacks on Iran's energy facilities for an additional 10 days. This type of about-face has opened the door to investors willing to bet that the US president will back down.Lena Komileva, chief economist at consultancy firm (g+)economics, notes that global markets have been less inclined to rebound after Trump's Iran-related policy reversals compared to similar shifts in response to his tariff policies. This is due to the complexity of the conflict and the unique objectives of the parties involved.