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The US war on Iran has now entered its sixth week, with the conflict showing no signs of abating. What was initially touted as a 'precise, overwhelming military campaign' to eliminate 'an imminent nuclear threat' has instead become a protracted and costly endeavor. The war has resulted in rising costs for the US in military equipment and personnel, and has had a significant impact on energy markets, with forecasts of a potential global economic recession in the event of a prolonged conflict.The conflict has also highlighted the Iranian regime's capacity for asymmetric warfare, with the country deploying cheap drones and missiles to disrupt energy facilities and compromise economies in the Gulf region. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil shipments, has also had a significant impact on the war effort, with the US and its allies struggling to reopen it.The US's failure to understand the Iranian regime's subjective complex dynamics has been a significant factor in the conflict's prolongation. The regime's ability to withstand pain and prolonged escalation without a clear scenario of military victory against a superpower has been underestimated, and its proxy groups, such as Hezbollah and the Houthis, have proven to be effective in advancing its interests and preventing outcomes that weaken or isolate it further.The conflict has also highlighted the diverging definitions of victory between the US and Iran, with the US seeking a swift and decisive victory, while Iran is focused on maintaining its viability on its own terms in the face of American hegemony. As the war continues, the question remains: how will this conflict end?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa have pledged to strengthen security cooperation between their countries. The agreement was made during Zelenskyy's visit to Damascus, where he discussed ways to enhance security and development opportunities for both nations. The cooperation aims to provide more security and opportunities for development for their societies, Zelenskyy wrote on Telegram after the meeting. He highlighted that there is a great interest in exchanging military and security experience between the two countries. Ukraine, which has developed significant expertise in countering drone attacks during its ongoing conflict with Russia, has been offering its military capabilities to countries in the Middle East region. Zelenskyy has recently signed long-term military cooperation deals with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and has sent teams to the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia to share Ukraine's expertise. Syria, which currently lacks effective air defenses against Iranian drones and missiles, stands to benefit from Ukraine's experience. Iran and its allied groups have been attacking US and Israeli targets, as well as targets in Gulf countries, using a range of missiles and drones. In addition to security cooperation, Zelenskyy and al-Sharaa discussed joint opportunities to strengthen food security across the region. Zelenskyy emphasized that Kyiv is a reliable grain supplier. The meeting between the two presidents was also attended by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who met with Zelenskyy, al-Sharaa, and Ukrainian Ambassador Andrii Sybiha. This trilateral meeting underscores the growing diplomatic engagement in the region. Zelenskyy's visit to Syria follows his recent trip to Turkiye, where he agreed on new steps in security cooperation with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and discussed joint gas infrastructure projects.

Iranian drone attacks on Sunday inflicted serious damage on two of Kuwait's power and water desalination plants and sparked a fire at the Shuwaikh Oil Sector Complex, though no injuries were reported.Fatima Abbas Johar Hayat, spokesperson for Kuwait’s Ministry of Electricity, Water and Renewable Energy, described the incident as “criminal aggression” that caused “serious material damage” and forced the shutdown of two electricity‑generating units.Al Jazeera’s Malika Traina highlighted the strategic importance of the facilities, noting that around 90 % of Kuwait’s drinking water is produced by these desalination plants, making the disruption a critical blow to the nation’s water security.The strikes come as Gulf states bear the brunt of Tehran’s retaliation to recent US and Israeli attacks on Iran. Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have become the epicentre of these assaults, according to Al Jazeera’s Victoria Gatenby in Doha.Gatenby warned that if President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu follow through on threats to intensify pressure on Iran, Tehran may target similar civilian and energy infrastructure across the Gulf.Bahrain also suffered drone attacks, with its Gulf Petrochemical Industries Co reporting damage to several operational units and Bapco Energies confirming a hit on an oil storage tank. Both incidents caused fires that were quickly extinguished, and no casualties were reported.In Abu Dhabi, authorities responded to multiple fires at the Borouge petrochemical plant, attributing them to falling debris from an interception. Operations were suspended pending a damage assessment, but no injuries have been confirmed.Saudi Arabia announced the interception of missiles early Sunday, underscoring the heightened military alert across the region.Gatenby noted that while Iran claims it is only targeting US military assets, the pattern over the past five weeks shows a broader focus on civilian and critical energy infrastructure. Gulf nations have exercised “incredible restraint,” yet their leaders caution that patience is not unlimited and that Saudi Arabia is invoking its right to self‑defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter.The escalating series of attacks highlights the fragile security environment in the Gulf and raises concerns about the resilience of essential services such as power and water supply amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Satellite‑imaging firm Planet Labs confirmed it will indefinitely suspend the distribution of visuals covering Iran and the wider Middle East conflict zone, responding to a direct request from the United States government.The California‑based company communicated the decision to its customers via email on Saturday, stating that the administration had asked imagery providers to impose an “indefinite withhold of imagery.”This restriction builds on a 14‑day delay introduced last month, which itself extended an earlier 96‑hour hold. Those temporary measures were intended to prevent hostile actors from exploiting commercial satellite data to target U.S. and allied forces.Planet Labs will withhold all imagery captured since March 9 and expects the policy to stay in place until the end of the war, which began on Feb. 28 when the United States and Israel launched aerial strikes against Iran. Since then, the conflict has escalated, with Iran firing missiles and drones at Israeli and U.S. assets and striking civilian infrastructure throughout the Gulf region.Founded in 2010 by former NASA scientists, the company said it will shift to a “managed distribution” model, releasing images only on a case‑by‑case basis for urgent, mission‑critical needs or when deemed to serve the public interest.“These are extraordinary circumstances, and we are doing all we can to balance the needs of all our stakeholders,” Planet Labs said in its statement.Satellite technology remains vital for military operations—supporting target identification, weapons guidance, missile tracking, and communications. Some space analysts warn that Iran could still access commercial imagery through adversarial channels, while journalists and researchers rely on such data to monitor hard‑to‑reach areas.

A tragic incident occurred at the Habshan gas facility in the United Arab Emirates, the country's largest natural gas processing site, after debris from an intercepted attack caused two fires. Local authorities reported that at least one person was killed and others were wounded.The Abu Dhabi Media Office stated that the debris, resulting from a successful interception by air defense systems, led to significant damage and four minor injuries – two Pakistani nationals and two Egyptian nationals. The incident occurred during a period of heightened tensions, with Iran continuing to fire missiles and drones across the Middle East since the US and Israel launched a war against the country on February 28.The UAE has been severely impacted, with several energy sites and civilian facilities targeted. In the past 24 hours alone, Emirati officials reported that at least 18 ballistic missiles, four cruise missiles, and 47 drones were fired from Iran. This surge in attacks prompted the head of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to urge the United Nations Security Council to take measures to halt Iranian attacks and protect maritime corridors.The situation remains critical, with Iran effectively halting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, causing prices to soar.

At the start of 2026 Pakistan was sitting on a surplus of imported liquefied natural gas (LNG). Three consecutive years of falling demand – from a peak of 8.2 million tonnes in 2021 to 6.1 million tonnes by late 2025 – were driven by cheap solar panels and reduced industrial activity. The government responded by quietly selling excess cargoes abroad and shutting down domestic wells to avoid over‑pressurising pipelines. Any gas that could not be diverted would have been pushed into household networks at a loss, adding billions to the sector’s crippling debt. Everything changed on 28 February when the United States and Israel launched the "Epic Fury" operation against Iran. The strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted missile sites, air defences and military infrastructure. Iran retaliated with hundreds of missiles and drones, choking traffic through the Strait of Hormuz – a chokepoint for roughly 20 % of global oil and gas. As part of its retaliation, Iranian drones hit Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City on 2 March, the world’s largest LNG export hub. Qatar, the second‑largest LNG exporter after the United States, declared force majeure and halted all production, releasing it from contractual delivery obligations. The fallout was immediate. Qatar’s forced shutdown cut its LNG output by 17 % and disrupted the supply chain that fuels Pakistan, which sources almost all of its imported gas from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Pakistan’s LNG arrivals plummeted from 12 shipments in January to just two in March. Monthly cargo data from the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) show that the country received between eight and twelve shipments a month through 2025, but only two arrived after the conflict began. Price pressure followed. On 13 February state‑owned Pakistan State Oil and Pakistan LNG Limited bought eight cargoes at an average of $10.47 per MMBtu (totaling $257.1 million). By 12 March the two cargoes that did arrive cost $12.49 per MMBtu – a 19 % increase in just one month. Long‑term contracts have left Pakistan with little flexibility. Two government‑to‑government agreements with Qatar, spanning 15 and 10 years, commit the country to nine shipments a month. Even as domestic demand fell – LNG’s share of Asian markets dropped from ~30 % in 2020 to ~18 % in 2025 – the contracts remained binding. Solarisation has been a double‑edged sword. By 2025 Pakistan installed 34 GW of solar capacity, with about 25 GW feeding the national grid, driving an 11 % decline in overall electricity demand between 2022 and 2025. Gas‑fired power plants built for imported LNG are now under‑utilised, especially during daylight hours. Analysts warn that the surplus was predictable. “Pakistan’s energy planning has been locked into long‑term contracts with little room for adjustment,” says Haneea Isaad of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA). The resulting circular debt now stands at 3.3 trillion rupees (≈ $11 billion), and the government is negotiating to off‑load 177 unwanted shipments worth $5.6 billion through 2031. With Qatar’s LNG shipments effectively halted, the country faces a potential shortfall of more than 21 % of its power generation capacity. The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority confirmed that LNG supplies are under force majeure, while coal imports from South Africa and Indonesia continue. To mitigate the gap, Pakistan is reviving domestic gas production that had been throttled during the surplus period. Roughly 350–400 million cubic feet per day of domestic gas were previously held back for LNG imports, now being released to the grid. Nevertheless, analysts caution that even with restored domestic gas, imported coal and hydropower, “the energy shortage may persist, especially during the peak summer months.” Summer pressure is already building. The State of Industry Report 2025 recorded peak electricity demand of over 33,000 MW last summer, while winter demand sits around 15,000 MW, helped by solar generation of 9,000–10,000 MW daily. Furnace oil, the primary backup fuel, now costs 35 rupees per unit (≈ $0.12), more than double since the Strait of Hormuz disruption. Consumers with grid electricity face higher bills and possible outages; industrial users reliant on gas risk production cuts; those equipped with rooftop solar and battery storage are best insulated. “Returning to the spot market is unlikely given Pakistan’s dire financial position, and competing with wealthier nations would price the country out,” Isaad warns. “The realistic outcome may be planned load‑shedding of two to three hours daily.”

Kuwait has been hit by Iranian missile and drone strikes, targeting a crucial power and desalination plant, as well as the Mina al-Ahmadi oil refinery. The attacks, which occurred on Friday, have raised concerns about the stability of the region and the potential for further escalation. The power and desalination plant was struck before midday local time, with the extent of the damage still unknown. The plant is critical for Kuwait's water supply, as the country is highly dependent on desalinated water. An Indian national was killed in a similar attack on March 30, and Iran denied claims it launched the attacks, blaming Israel instead. The Mina al-Ahmadi oil refinery, one of the largest in the Middle East, was targeted in early morning drone strikes, resulting in fires in several operational units. No employees were injured, but emergency and firefighting teams were dispatched to the scene, and environmental authorities monitored the area for air quality. The attacks are part of a broader escalation of tensions in the Gulf region, with Iran launching retaliatory strikes against US and Israeli targets. The United Arab Emirates' defence ministry reported that it had intercepted 19 ballistic missiles and 26 drones on Thursday alone, while Saudi Arabia destroyed a drone in its airspace overnight. Iran's army spokesperson warned of impending attacks on regional power plants, while US President Donald Trump warned of intensifying strikes on Iran's infrastructure. The situation remains volatile, with concerns about the potential for further attacks and the impact on regional stability.

President Donald Trump escalated rhetoric on Thursday, stating that the United States has yet to begin a full‑scale campaign against Iran’s remaining infrastructure and hinting that bridges and electric power plants could be next targets. The comment followed the release of video showing a U.S. strike on the newly completed B1 bridge that connects Tehran to Karaj, an attack that Iran reports killed eight people and injured 95. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi condemned the strike on civilian infrastructure, describing it as evidence of the “defeat and moral collapse” of the aggressor. In a statement posted on X, he warned that such attacks would not force Iran to surrender. The conflict, now entering its fifth week, has begun to ripple through regional and global markets. Instability around the Strait of Hormuz—a vital conduit for oil and gas—has prompted nations to scramble for alternative shipping routes. Satellite images this week captured smoke over Iran’s Qeshm Island, underscoring the heightened risk to infrastructure near the strategic waterway. Amid stalled negotiations with Iran’s new leadership, Trump’s intensified language comes as the United Nations Security Council prepares to vote on a resolution that could authorize member states to use “defensive means” to keep the strait open. Araghchi warned that any provocative action in the Council would only worsen the situation. Iranian media have begun listing potential retaliation targets, naming major bridges in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan as possible future strike points. The semi‑official Fars News Agency highlighted these crossings as vulnerable following the Karaj bridge attack. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed responsibility for recent strikes on U.S.-linked industrial sites in the Gulf, including steel facilities in Abu Dhabi and aluminium plants in Bahrain. The IRGC warned that if attacks on Iranian industries continue, “the next response will be much more painful” and will focus on the occupier’s core infrastructure. Health infrastructure has also suffered. Iran’s Health Ministry reported that U.S. and Israeli raids severely damaged the Pasteur Institute of Iran, a key research center for diseases such as cholera and COVID‑19. Ministry spokesperson Hossein Kermanpour called the strike “a direct assault on international health security.” WHO Director‑General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus echoed the condemnation, noting that the institute is now unable to deliver health services. The WHO has documented more than 20 attacks on Iranian healthcare facilities since the start of March. In a separate claim, Iranian officials said air defenses downed a second U.S. F‑35 fighter jet over central Iran, suggesting the pilot’s survival was unlikely. The United States has not responded to the allegation. Israel’s military reported a fresh barrage of Iranian missiles, which triggered air‑defence alerts and caused damage to homes, vehicles, and a train station in Tel Aviv. The widening hostilities, combined with threats to critical energy and health infrastructure, highlight the growing regional volatility and its potential to disrupt global markets.

Iran launched a new barrage of missiles at Israel following President Donald Trump’s televised claim that Washington had "destroyed the Iranian military" and was on the brink of completing its war objectives. Trump’s address, delivered hours after he asserted that Tehran had requested a ceasefire—a claim Tehran promptly denied—also featured a pledge to "finish the job" and a statement that the core strategic goals of the United States were "nearing completion." Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian emphasized that Iran holds no hostility toward the peoples of the United States, Europe or neighboring states, while urging the American public to question the motives behind the continued conflict. In Tehran, the war has intensified: US‑Israeli air campaigns continue to cause casualties and infrastructure damage, and Iranian forces persist with missile and drone counter‑attacks. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that, despite receiving messages from Washington, "trust remains at zero" for any negotiation. Senior political figure Kamal Kharazi, a former foreign minister, was seriously wounded when a strike hit his home in Tehran, killing his wife. Kharazi had been involved in back‑channel talks through Pakistan aimed at reviving negotiations. In the Gulf, the United Arab Emirates reported intercepting incoming Iranian missiles and drones, and a tanker off Doha sustained damage from a projectile, though no casualties were reported. President Trump publicly thanked Gulf allies, pledging that the United States would not allow them to be harmed. Within the United States, analysts such as Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute noted that Trump’s speech offered little new information, essentially summarising recent tweets and suggesting a lack of a clear operational plan. Israel’s military confirmed that its air‑defence systems were actively intercepting Iranian missiles, but the attack wounded 14 civilians, including an 11‑year‑old girl, near Tel Aviv. Israeli officials said the timeline outlined by Trump aligns with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s assessment of the campaign. Regional spill‑over continued: an Israeli strike on Beirut killed a senior Hezbollah commander and at least seven civilians, while an air strike on Iraq’s Anbar province killed seven fighters and injured 13 at a military healthcare clinic. On the economic front, the World Bank expressed "extreme concern" about the conflict’s impact on inflation, employment and food security, and is consulting member states on emergency measures. Despite the turmoil, global equity markets rallied and oil prices fell after Trump’s optimistic remarks, indicating short‑term investor relief.