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The US-Israel war on Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for materials used in the production of various everyday products. As the conflict enters its fifth week, global oil shortages are forcing countries to take severe measures to conserve their reserves. While US gas prices have surged to their highest level in years, the impact of rising oil prices extends far beyond drivers. Oil is a crucial component in the supply chain, powering machines that manufacture goods and fueling trucks that transport them to stores. The price increases come at a time when many Americans are already strained by rising housing costs, grocery bills, and electricity statements. A recent Gallup poll found that a third of Americans have had to skip meals and forego other needs to afford their healthcare. Oil and Gas The average cost of gas in the US has jumped about 30% over the last month, with the national average hitting $3.97, the highest since 2023. Diesel, which fuels many trucks transporting goods, has increased by about 50%, or $1.69 more than it did a year ago. Higher diesel costs could soon affect transportation costs and grocery prices, as roughly 85% of agricultural goods are transported by trucks. The impact of oil and gas shortages on the supply chain can be categorized as first-order effects, such as higher prices at the gas pump, and second-order effects, including potential price increases for crops, semiconductor chips, and medical devices. Fertilizer Farmers are struggling as the spring growing season approaches, facing higher fertilizer costs and falling commodity prices. A third of global urea trade, a solid nitrogen fertilizer, passes through the Middle East region, with about 20% of imported fertilizer to the US coming from Qatar. Nitrogen fertilizer is critical to grow corn, which is cultivated by about 500,000 farmers in the US. The White House has promised to minimize disruptions to the US economy, with alternative sources of fertilizer being sought from around the world. Helium The conflict has disrupted the global helium supply after Iranian attacks in Qatar, the second-largest producer of helium after the United States. Helium is a key import used in aerospace, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and semiconductor chips that power AI. Jet Fuel Increases in oil prices could result in higher airfare and shipping costs. The price of jet fuel has doubled since the start of the war, according to the International Air Transport Association. United Airlines announced last Friday that it would have to cut flights due to the surging cost of fuel. < h2>Mortgage Rates Just as US mortgages were starting to fall in February, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate ticked up to its highest level in months, reaching 6.22%. Mortgage rates are closely tied to the overall state of the economy, and the US Federal Reserve's decision to leave rates unchanged last week cited uncertainty in the economy, particularly with conflict in the Middle East.

Iran has launched a significant missile attack on Israel, causing damage and injuries in Tel Aviv. The attack, which occurred on Tuesday, triggered air raid sirens across the city, including in the densely populated areas of Tel Aviv. A multistorey apartment building suffered extensive damage, with gaping holes torn through it, although it was unclear if the damage was from a direct hit or debris from an interception. At least six people were lightly injured at four different sites, according to Israel's Magen David Adom emergency medical service. Police in Tel Aviv reported dealing with multiple impact sites of munitions, while the National Fire and Rescue Authority was searching for people trapped in one building and found civilians in a shelter in another damaged building. In response to the missile strikes, Israel's military carried out a wave of airstrikes in central Tehran on Monday, targeting key command centers associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' intelligence arm and the Iranian Intelligence Ministry. The military also hit over 50 additional targets overnight, including ballistic missile storage and launch sites. The escalation comes amid ongoing uncertainty about possible talks to end the three-week US-Israel war on Iran. The situation remains volatile, with both sides engaging in military actions that could have broader implications for regional stability.

The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has escalated with a series of attacks on Iranian cities, including the capital Tehran, and other locations such as Tabriz, Isfahan, and Karaj. These attacks occurred even as US President Donald Trump claimed that Washington was engaged in productive conversations with Tehran to end the war.Iranian media reported that Israeli-US strikes targeted two gas facilities and a pipeline, hours after Trump postponed planned attacks on power infrastructure. The attacks resulted in partial damage to facilities in central Iran, including a gas administration building and a gas pressure regulation station in Isfahan.A leading scholar and professor at a science university in Tehran, Saeed Shamaghdari, was killed alongside his two children in an attack on his residence north of the capital. Iran's English-language news channel Press TV identified Shamaghdari as a teacher at the engineering department of the Iran University of Science and Technology.The head of Iran's emergency service, Jafar Miadfar, reported that 208 children have been killed since the war began on February 28, with 168 of them dying in the US missile strikes on a girls' school in Minab city. Rights groups have called for an investigation into the Minab attack as a potential war crime.More than 1,500 civilians have been killed across Iran, according to the Iranian government. The US-Israel war on Iran has expanded across the Middle East, leading to a spike in oil prices and triggering a global energy crisis.Despite the escalation of violence, Iran's Foreign Minister Abass Araghchi has held calls with several countries, including Egypt, Pakistan, and Oman, in an attempt to open a diplomatic channel. However, senior Iranian officials have denied that Iran is engaged in talks with the US, contradicting Trump's claims of productive conversations.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has emphasized the need for a negotiated solution to the conflict, warning that the situation is critical for energy supplies and condemning Iran's efforts to block energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz.

Revolut, the UK banking app, has reported a 57% increase in profits for 2025, but warned that its support for energy-intensive sectors such as crypto and AI could lead to a reputational risk. The fintech company, which can now launch as a fully fledged UK bank after a five-year wait for regulatory approval, offers crypto trading and has applied for a banking licence in the US.The company's annual report highlighted that cryptocurrency mining and AI datacentres demand large amounts of power, with competition for electricity supplies getting steeper since the US-Israel war on Iran sent energy prices soaring over the past month. Revolut's chief executive, Nik Storonsky, hailed another “landmark year” for the company, which has 68.3 million individual customers and 767,000 business customers.Revolut's growth has been rapid, with revenues climbing 46% to £4.5bn and a £1.7bn pre-tax profit for 2025. The company plans to offer a wider array of banking services in the future, such as lending and other products, and has launched mortgage refinancing in Lithuania. Despite the potential risks, Revolut believes its digital-first approach and emphasis on financial inclusion could lead to it being “relatively insulated and even benefit from an orderly energy transition, relative to traditional financial institutions”.

The UK defence industry is in a state of crisis as a long-delayed military spending plan has left firms 'bleeding cash' and in 'paralysis'. The six-month delay to the defence investment plan (DIP) has resulted in some companies going bust, while others are struggling to stay afloat.Industry groups have warned that the delay has left the UK behind Germany and the US in attracting investment from global investors. The DIP, originally expected last autumn, has been repeatedly postponed amid warnings that the military faces a £28bn funding gap over the next four years.Samira Braund, the defence director of the ADS Group trade body, described the situation as 'paralysis', stating that the government has not put effective mitigation plans in place. The boss of BAE Systems, Europe's biggest defence contractor, has urged ministers to publish the plan, while some smaller firms have been forced out of business.One such company was MTE Heat Treatment, a Yorkshire-based manufacturer with just over 30 employees that helped make turbine blades for jet engines. It fell into administration in February. Andrew Kinniburgh, the head of the trade body Make UK's defence arm, warned that the delay risks deterring investment in the UK at a time when the US and Europe are also raising military spending.The DIP will show how the government plans to fund its strategic defence review, the blueprint for transforming the military amid growing threats from Russia, rising commitments to Nato and against the backdrop of the US-Israel war on Iran. Ministers accepted all the review's recommendations when it was published last June, but the head of the military, Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton, told MPs in January that defence cuts would be needed without more funding.

Japan will begin releasing its largest-ever oil reserves this week, according to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. The decision aims to cushion the country against possible energy shortages triggered by the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran and its impact on tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The government has approved the release of 15 days' worth of private-sector reserves and will start releasing state-owned reserves on Thursday. This move follows concerns that the conflict in the Middle East will continue to disrupt oil supplies. Japan, a resource-poor nation with a significant economy, imports over 90% of its crude oil from the Middle East, making it particularly vulnerable to supply chain disruptions in the region. The release includes about 80 million barrels of stockpiled oil, equivalent to 45 days of domestic demand. This is 1.8 times the quantity made available after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant disaster in 2011. As of last year, Japan held reserves of approximately 470 million barrels of oil, enough for 254 days of domestic consumption. In addition to the oil reserve release, the government has introduced subsidies for fuel products to cap gasoline prices at about ¥170 ($1.10) per liter. This move comes after the average retail price of gasoline reached a record ¥190.8 per liter. The subsidies will be reviewed weekly based on oil prices. The Strait of Hormuz crisis has also triggered concerns among Japanese consumers about the availability of essential goods, including toilet paper. In response, the trade and industry ministry has advised consumers against hoarding toilet paper, urging them to make rational purchasing decisions based on accurate information.

The world is currently experiencing a severe energy crisis, surpassing the combined impact of the 1970s oil shocks and the Ukraine war, according to Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Speaking at a media event in Australia, Birol warned that the energy crunch prompted by the US-Israel war on Iran has exceeded the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks and gas shortages stemming from Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.Birol stated that the crisis is equivalent to two oil crises and one gas crash combined. He noted that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on energy facilities have reduced global oil supplies by about 11 million barrels per day (bpd), more than double the combined shortfalls of the 1970s crises. Additionally, liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies have been reduced by about 140 billion cubic meters, compared to a shortfall of 75bcm in the aftermath of Ukraine's invasion by Russia.At least 40 energy facilities across nine countries have been severely damaged in the conflict, according to the IEA chief. Birol emphasized that the global economy is facing a major threat and expressed hope that the issue will be resolved soon.Birol also expressed concern that the scale of the crisis had not been fully understood, which prompted him to speak publicly about the situation. The IEA has proposed measures to reduce energy consumption, including facilitating remote working and carpooling, and lowering speed limits on motorways.The IEA chief is in consultation with different countries about releasing more strategic oil reserves if needed. However, he emphasized that the single most important solution to the crisis is to unblock the Strait of Hormuz, which usually carries about one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies.

US President Donald Trump has taken to social media to mock UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, sharing a Saturday Night Live (SNL) skit that depicts Starmer panicking at the prospect of a call with Trump. The skit, which aired on the premiere of the new British version of SNL, shows Starmer, played by George Fouracres, trying to avoid a call with Trump.The video was shared on the same evening that Trump and Starmer spoke about the escalating tensions in the Middle East and the US-Israel war on Iran. During their call, the two leaders focused on the need to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively blocked by Iran since the US and Israel launched strikes on February 28.The closure of the strait has sent oil prices soaring, creating the biggest energy crisis since the 1970s. Trump has repeatedly criticized Starmer for not doing enough to support the US efforts to break the blockade, accusing him of being a 'coward' and saying he is 'disappointed' in him.Starmer has asserted that any attempt to reopen the Strait of Hormuz needs careful consideration and a viable plan, and that his number one priority is to protect British interests and de-escalate tensions. The UK government has given authorization for the US to use its military bases to carry out strikes on Iranian missile sites that were attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz.