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The recent meeting of foreign ministers from Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey in Islamabad signals the emergence of a new four-nation bloc in the Middle East. This bloc aims to promote a ceasefire in the region and curb the dominance of Iran and Israel.The group's primary goal is to persuade all sides to stop the escalation and agree to a ceasefire. According to Yasmine Farouk, a Gulf specialist at the International Crisis Group, the group will meet more frequently to achieve this goal.The meeting in Islamabad made some progress, including an Iranian agreement to allow vessels operating under the Pakistani flag to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The group will also act as a primary interlocutor with Iran, keeping indirect negotiating channels open between Tehran and the US.Turkey is seen as the most committed member of the group, with Hakan Fidan, Turkey's foreign minister, and İbrahim Kalın, the director of Turkish intelligence, urging Gulf states to consider the wider context of the war and the risks of encouraging an outcome in which Israel emerges stronger.The bloc's emergence is significant, as it brings together countries with different interests and perspectives on the conflict in the Middle East. The group's success will depend on its ability to navigate these complex relationships and promote a peaceful resolution to the conflict.

The US-Iran conflict, now in its fifth week, has escalated into a war of attrition with no clear strategy or end in sight. The US continues to hit Iranian targets while building up forces in the region, while Iran launches missile and drone attacks on Israel and neighboring Gulf states.The conflict has significant economic implications, with Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz causing oil prices to surge and disrupting global supply chains. The pain is likely to get worse, with shortages already felt across the world, from Asian factories to European diesel markets.The war should never have been started, with the threat not imminent, objectives unclear, and justification falling apart under scrutiny. Responsibility rests with Donald Trump and Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu. The delusion that force can impose a more compliant regime in Tehran has predictably given rise to a conflict that sustains itself.The only plausible exit is negotiation without preconditions. However, Mr. Trump mixes threats of escalation and claims that negotiations are progressing, with little evidence of a meaningful diplomatic track. The conflict cannot be separated from Gaza, where Mr. Netanyahu is gambling that war with Iran will restore his standing.If US ground forces are committed, the dynamic shifts, and American casualties will harden resolve among those who backed the intervention, making withdrawal politically harder. World powers can shift the incentives away from a US ground war by working together to insulate themselves from economic pain and coordinate diplomatic messaging.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has arrived in Jordan as part of his tour to strengthen defence ties in the Gulf region, amid the ongoing conflict with Russia. Security is the top priority, and it is crucial that all partners make necessary efforts toward it, Zelenskyy emphasized.Zelenskyy's visit comes after Ukraine has agreed to cooperate on defence with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Kyiv's anti-drone experts have also been deployed to these countries as Iran targets infrastructure there using drones that Russia has also used during its war with Ukraine.The Ukrainian president has been seeking support from the Gulf states as the Russia-Ukraine war continues, with no end in sight. More than four years since Russia launched a full-scale invasion, Kyiv is struggling to cover its budget deficit and fund domestic weapons production.Ukraine has intensified retaliatory attacks on Russian infrastructure, including refineries, oil depots, and ports, arguing that they were justified targets to sever revenues funding Russia's offensive. A drone strike triggered a fire at Russia's Baltic port of Ust-Luga, which was hit for the second time in several days.According to the Russian regional governor, Alexander Drozdenko, damage was sustained at the port, the fire is now under control, and there were no casualties from the attack. He added that 36 drones were destroyed overnight in the region.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has claimed responsibility for conducting missile and drone attacks on aluminium facilities in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). According to a statement carried by Iran's state broadcaster IRIB, the IRGC targeted sites on Saturday that were allegedly linked to US military bases in the Gulf states.The attacks resulted in injuries to two employees at Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) and significant damage to one of Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) sites in Abu Dhabi, with six people injured. The IRGC stated that the strikes were in retaliation for a US-Israeli attack on Iranian industrial infrastructure launched from military bases hosting US forces in the Gulf states.The attacks have raised concerns about the global aluminium supply, with estimates suggesting that between 4 to 9 percent of the global supply comes from this region. The escalation of attacks in the Middle East has led to increased tensions, with Saudi Arabia intercepting and destroying 10 drones and the Kuwaiti National Guard shooting down four drones.Analysts warn that if Iran continues to match attack for attack, the situation could become very concerning, potentially leading to further escalation in the Gulf Cooperation Council. The attacks have also prompted Oman's Foreign Ministry to condemn the attacks on its territory, with authorities investigating the sources and motives behind the assaults.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has issued a stern warning to neighboring countries, urging them not to allow the US and Israel to use their territory to launch attacks against Iran. In a post on X, Pezeshkian emphasized that Iran does not initiate preemptive attacks but will strongly retaliate if its infrastructure or economic centers are targeted. “To the countries of the region: If you want development and security, don’t let our enemies run the war from your lands,” Pezeshkian stated. This message is part of a broader effort by Iran to prevent the escalation of the ongoing conflict with the US and Israel. The conflict began on February 28, when the US and Israel launched air strikes across Iran, resulting in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Since then, the situation has shown no signs of de-escalation, with Israel announcing daily strikes on Iran and Tehran continuing to target its arch-rival and countries hosting US military assets. In recent developments, several Gulf states have been targeted in attacks. In Kuwait, multiple drone attacks damaged the international airport's radar system, while in Abu Dhabi, strikes caused debris to fall near the Khalifa Economic Zone, injuring six people. Iran's military claimed to have struck a Ukrainian anti-drone system depot in Dubai, which it alleged supported US forces. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also urged regional countries to distance themselves from the US, reiterating Iran's stance that it will not tolerate the use of neighboring territories for hostile actions. The conflict has resulted in significant disruptions across the region, with at least 15 American soldiers wounded in an Iranian attack on a Saudi airbase on Friday. The situation remains volatile, with alarm sirens activated in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia's defense ministry reporting ballistic missile and drone attacks, all of which were allegedly shot down.

Qatar's Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, held crucial talks with senior US officials in Washington, DC, as tensions escalate in the Gulf region due to the ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran.The meetings, which included US Vice President JD Vance and US Secretary Scott Bessent, focused on strengthening the "close strategic cooperation" between Doha and Washington, particularly in defense partnerships given the current regional challenges.Both sides emphasized the importance of ensuring the sustainability of energy supplies and maintaining the flow of liquefied natural gas from Qatar to global markets, supporting global energy security.Vance praised Qatar's active role in promoting regional stability and enhancing global energy security, highlighting the robust strategic partnership between the two nations.The Gulf region has been under heightened tension since February 28, when the US-Israeli war on Iran began, resulting in over 3,000 deaths across the region, mostly in Iran and Lebanon.Iran has since launched drone and missile attacks on Israel, Jordan, Iraq, and Gulf states, prompting regional leaders to urge Iran to cease these attacks to protect civilians.Earlier this month, Qatar reported that Iranian missile attacks on the Ras Laffan Industrial City, the country's main gas facility, caused "significant damage."The conflict has led to an unprecedented global energy crisis as Iran has effectively closed off the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world's oil passes.On Thursday, Sheikh Mohammed also met with US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth in Washington, focusing on developing defense and security collaboration amid regional challenges.The Qatari Cabinet has condemned Iranian attacks on Qatar and its neighbors, calling for an immediate halt to these actions.

The ongoing conflict between the US and Iran has yielded limited results in terms of destroying Iran's ballistic missile capabilities. According to a report by Reuters, based on information from five people familiar with US intelligence, the US has only destroyed about a third of Iran's missile and drone arsenal after a month of military action. The report suggests that another third of Tehran's missiles may have been damaged or buried in underground tunnels and bunkers, leaving a sizeable stockpile still accessible to Iran. This assessment directly contradicts statements made by Donald Trump on Thursday that Tehran had "very few rockets left" and claims from other US officials that the war has eliminated Iran's ballistic missile capabilities. Iranian officials view their ballistic missile program as a crucial deterrent against the US and Israel, given the significant military superiority of these countries. Iran has effectively used ballistic missiles and drones over the last month to attack Israel and critical infrastructure in the Gulf, causing substantial damage to the global economy. The US and Israel have identified degrading Iran's ballistic missile capacity as a primary objective of the war. Washington has deployed thousands of additional troops to the Middle East in recent days, with the administration reportedly considering a ground operation on Kharg island to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Israel has targeted ballistic missile caches and launchers in its aerial campaign against Iran, claiming to have "neutralized" 335 or 70% of Tehran's missile launchers. However, Iran has dispersed its launchers across the country to evade detection and airstrikes, making it challenging for Israel and the US to completely eliminate the threat. Despite the decline in the number of launches due to the ongoing bombing campaign, Iranian missiles have still managed to hit Israel and the Gulf, as interceptors also run out. The conflict has resulted in billions of dollars spent and critical interceptor stocks expended by Israel, the US, and Gulf states to block Iranian missile barrages. A US official noted that assessing Iran's missile stockpile accurately is difficult due to much of it being stored underground, suggesting that "I don't know if we'll ever have an accurate number". The vast tunnel network created an extra challenge in destroying Iran's missile stockpile, but the US military has vowed to continue its efforts.

Gulf countries are increasingly concerned about the threat posed by Iran-backed militias and proxy armed groups in the region. These groups, which include Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, have been used by Iran as a pillar of its foreign and security policy for decades.In a joint statement, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan condemned Iranian attacks on their soil, both as strikes carried out directly from Iran and “through their proxies and armed factions they support in the region”. The statement also called on the Iraqi government to take measures to halt attacks launched by factions, militias, and armed groups from Iraqi territory.Kuwait recently foiled a plot to kill state leaders and arrested six suspects believed to be associated with Hezbollah. The Houthis also confirmed they had launched a missile strike on Israel, the first time the proxy group have admitted involvement in the war in the Middle East.The threat of these groups is seen as particularly worrying for countries such as Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, which have a history of Iran-backed militia carrying out violent attacks. Analysts warn that the presence and danger of Iranian proxy groups in the Gulf had not reached levels anything close to those during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, but the threat remains greater the longer the conflict with Iran drags on.Bilal Saab, a senior managing director of the Trends US thinktank, said: “If this war escalates, the worst-case scenario for the Gulf countries is Iran activating their sleeper cells and these Shia militia movements in the region. We could see a whole lot more if things really escalate.”

Following Donald Trump's recent claims that the US is engaged in 'strong talks' to end the war with Iran, Qatar took the unusual step of publicly distancing itself from any alleged diplomatic negotiations. The Gulf state's government spokesperson Majed al-Ansari explicitly stated, 'Qatar was not involved in any mediation efforts,' adding pointedly, 'If they exist.'This represents a significant departure from Qatar's traditional role as a chief mediator in Middle East conflicts, having previously facilitated negotiations between Israel and Hamas, the US and the Taliban, and peace deals in Lebanon and Sudan.Over the past three weeks, Gulf states have found themselves on the frontlines of the conflict after their mediation efforts to prevent war were ultimately rejected by the US. The pattern of broken negotiations is particularly telling: the US attacked Iran twice during talks aimed at halting the Iranian nuclear program, which were championed by Oman. Discussions last June were halted as the US and Israel conducted strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, and revived talks in February were similarly undermined when Trump began bombing Tehran before the final round of meetings.Since the war began, Gulf states have been forced to spend billions defending against daily Iranian missile and drone attacks, with their economies and sovereignty suffering substantial damage. Analysts suggest their reluctance to engage with the alleged ceasefire efforts reflects both the heavy toll of continued warfare and lingering suspicion about whether Trump's peace initiatives are genuine or merely a pretext for further escalation.As Bilal Saab, senior managing director of advisory group Trends US and former Pentagon official in the first Trump administration, explained: 'They've been burned by their previous experience. They previously thought they played a useful mediating role – until they realised that it was all for naught. Not to mention that they have been directly implicated in the war and are still being attacked by the Iranians. So there's a lot of pent-up frustration and disappointment.'By Wednesday night, the Iranian regime had outright rejected Trump's 15-point plan to end the war, submitted to Tehran via Pakistani generals, as 'extremely unreasonable' and presented their own substantially different proposal.The concern among Gulf states is that any negotiations could become a front for military escalation or even the assassination of additional Iranian leaders. This anxiety is compounded by the simultaneous deployment of thousands of US troops to the region and the persistent fear of being used as pawns in the US and Israel's Middle East strategy.Professor Bader al-Saif of Kuwait University noted: 'Whenever the word negotiation was used by the Trump administration, we unfortunately ended up under the rubric of war.' He emphasized that while Gulf states are reluctant to engage with what they perceive as a potential Trumpian charade, they recognize the critical importance of shaping any realistic peace negotiations that could affect their future.The existential threat to Gulf economic ambitions is particularly concerning. The prospect of Trump ending the war with the current Iranian regime still in place—potentially more vengeful than before and acutely aware of the damage its missiles can inflict on multi-billion-dollar infrastructure—poses significant risks. Additionally, there remains no clear solution to Iran's effective control over the Strait of Hormuz, through which most of the region's oil and gas exports flow.Analysts suggest that beyond relying on US-led negotiations, Gulf states should pursue their own separate dialogue with Iran. As al-Saif stated: 'They shouldn't only count on the US to do the negotiation. They should go and strike a deal with Iran for themselves. This was not our war, and if we can shield ourselves from being impacted any further, we should do it to protect our own national interests.'