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The war in Iran has sent shockwaves through the UK economy, causing gilt yields to surge to their highest levels since the 2008 global financial crisis. This increase in borrowing costs has significant implications for Chancellor Rachel Reeves' fiscal policy, potentially eroding the £23bn in 'headroom' she had built up against her fiscal rules.Reeves had hoped that this cushion would allow her to focus on tackling inflation and stimulating growth, but with oil prices up 50% since the onset of the war, investors are now expecting higher inflation and interest rates. As a result, the government's cost of borrowing is set to rise, impacting its ability to fund public spending.The yield on 10-year gilts has jumped to nearly 5%, pushing up the cost of borrowing and forcing Reeves to reconsider her spending plans. This development has also raised concerns about the UK's economic fragility and the potential for a Labour leadership contest to be triggered after the May local elections.Economists warn that the chancellor has probably already lost a third to half of her headroom due to the combination of higher inflation, weaker employment, and surging gilt yields. The situation is further complicated by the UK's high debt levels and reliance on global markets, leaving little room for maneuver for any future government.The implications of this crisis extend beyond Reeves, raising questions about the economic pitch of any potential steward of the economy, whether from Labour or other parties. As Angela Rayner considers John Healey as a potential chancellor, the need for a carefully plotted economic policy that balances growth and fiscal responsibility has become increasingly urgent.

Qatar's Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, held crucial talks with senior US officials in Washington, DC, as tensions escalate in the Gulf region due to the ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran.The meetings, which included US Vice President JD Vance and US Secretary Scott Bessent, focused on strengthening the "close strategic cooperation" between Doha and Washington, particularly in defense partnerships given the current regional challenges.Both sides emphasized the importance of ensuring the sustainability of energy supplies and maintaining the flow of liquefied natural gas from Qatar to global markets, supporting global energy security.Vance praised Qatar's active role in promoting regional stability and enhancing global energy security, highlighting the robust strategic partnership between the two nations.The Gulf region has been under heightened tension since February 28, when the US-Israeli war on Iran began, resulting in over 3,000 deaths across the region, mostly in Iran and Lebanon.Iran has since launched drone and missile attacks on Israel, Jordan, Iraq, and Gulf states, prompting regional leaders to urge Iran to cease these attacks to protect civilians.Earlier this month, Qatar reported that Iranian missile attacks on the Ras Laffan Industrial City, the country's main gas facility, caused "significant damage."The conflict has led to an unprecedented global energy crisis as Iran has effectively closed off the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world's oil passes.On Thursday, Sheikh Mohammed also met with US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth in Washington, focusing on developing defense and security collaboration amid regional challenges.The Qatari Cabinet has condemned Iranian attacks on Qatar and its neighbors, calling for an immediate halt to these actions.

The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has entered its fourth week, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining effectively closed. This has led to a broadening of the global energy crisis, with the economic outlook darkening across Asia, Europe, and beyond.Japan has responded by releasing 80 million barrels of oil from its national reserves, enough to last for 45 days. The country's reliance on Middle Eastern crude oil imports stands at 90 percent.The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has warned that the conflict will have a significant impact on the UK economy, predicting inflation of 4 percent this year. UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper has stated that Iran cannot be allowed to hold the global economy hostage.The uncertainty surrounding Trump's policy on Iran has led to the emergence of the TACO trade, an acronym that stands for Trump Always Chickens Out. This phenomenon refers to investors betting that the US president will back down from his threats, resulting in profits for those who bought in.Observers note that Trump's inconsistent messaging has created an opportunity for investors to bet on his policy reversals. For example, Trump extended his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz from 48 hours to five days, and later promised to hold off from attacks on Iran's energy facilities for an additional 10 days. This type of about-face has opened the door to investors willing to bet that the US president will back down.Lena Komileva, chief economist at consultancy firm (g+)economics, notes that global markets have been less inclined to rebound after Trump's Iran-related policy reversals compared to similar shifts in response to his tariff policies. This is due to the complexity of the conflict and the unique objectives of the parties involved.

The escalating tensions with Iran have sparked concerns about a potential price crisis that could have significant repercussions on the global economy. While the immediate focus is on the energy sector, analysts warn that the impact will not be limited to oil prices alone.The conflict's effects are expected to ripple through various industries, influencing markets and economies worldwide. As the situation continues to unfold, experts stress the need for a comprehensive understanding of the crisis's broader implications.Iran plays a crucial role in the global energy landscape, but the consequences of a protracted conflict will likely be felt across multiple sectors, potentially leading to a complex and multifaceted economic crisis.

The recent developments in the conflict between the US and Iran have left global markets reeling. President Donald Trump's threat to attack Iran's civilian power infrastructure led to a surge in oil prices, a plummet in stock futures, and a climb in bond yields. However, the president quickly walked back his statement, announcing that talks with Iran were going well. This move, dubbed 'Taco' (Trump Always Chickens Out), was first seen during the tariffs crisis last year. The immediate market reaction was significant, with bonds and stocks recovering rapidly after Trump's statement. The S&P; 500 stock index jumped 1.5% by 9:30 am in New York, defying earlier futures contracts that signaled a 1% daily decline. However, Iran's response has shown that Trump's tactic may be losing steam. Iranian officials denied the 'productive conversations' Trump claimed had taken place, and launched missile attacks on Israel, Iraq, and other American allies in the Gulf. This has led to renewed market volatility, with oil prices rebounding and stocks giving up their gains. The article suggests that Trump no longer has control of events in Iran and that the conflict's outcome will likely be decided by Tehran. The Iranian regime has little incentive to back down, having already suffered significant losses but still capable of imposing enormous costs on the world by throttling the Strait of Hormuz and depriving the global economy of 12.5 million barrels of oil and 11.5 billion cubic feet of gas per day. As markets continue to react to the situation, it appears that Trump's 'Persian Tacos' may not be enough to calm investor nerves. The S&P; index lost 1.78% on Thursday, closing at a new low for the year, and the price of Brent crude hovered around $108.

Iran has assured that 'non-hostile' vessels can safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for about one-fifth of the world's oil and liquified natural gas supplies. The assurance comes amid a significant collapse in maritime traffic through the strait, which has contributed to a major global energy crisis.In a statement released through its mission to the United Nations, Iran specified that ships would be allowed to transit the strait 'provided that they neither participate in nor support acts of aggression against Iran and fully comply with the declared safety and security regulations.'The development follows a sharp decline in shipping traffic through the strait, with only about 5 vessels passing through daily, compared to an average of 120 daily transits before the US-Israel conflict began. This reduction has led to a surge in global energy prices, with Brent crude experiencing significant fluctuations.Iran's statement also mentioned that ships will be allowed to transit 'in coordination with the competent Iranian authorities.' The country has shared similar assurances with the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the UN body responsible for international shipping safety and security.The move comes as US President Donald Trump mentioned ongoing negotiations to end the conflict with Iran, despite Tehran's previous denials of talks. The situation remains complex, with global markets closely watching for any signs of resolution.

Global markets experienced a significant shift as stock markets in Asia and Europe rose following reports that US President Donald Trump had sent a 15-point framework for peace to Iran. This development sparked hopes of a ceasefire in the Middle East, influencing market sentiment. The price of oil, which had fallen by 4% in early trading to below $100 (£75) per barrel of Brent crude, later recovered to approximately $100. This fluctuation was driven by the prospect of an end to the conflict easing the squeeze on oil supply. The straits of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane through which 20% of global oil supplies transit, had been effectively closed by Iran, causing a significant disruption to oil and gas shipments. Iran's announcement that it would permit “non-hostile” ships to pass safely through the strait of Hormuz helped to reopen this crucial waterway. This move, combined with the potential peace plan, contributed to the positive market sentiment. Stock markets in Asia saw notable gains, with Japan’s Nikkei rising by 2.9%, India’s S&P; BSE Sensex almost 2% higher, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up by just under 1%. European markets also saw increases, with the FTSE 100 in London up by almost 1%, Germany’s Dax trading 1.6% higher, and France’s Cac 40 climbing by 1.4%. However, Iran’s foreign affairs ministry informed the UN Security Council and the International Maritime Organization that “non-hostile” vessels could pass through the strait, which also poses a risk to global food security due to the disruption of fertiliser supplies. The World Trade Organization warned that this could lead to food price shocks. The conflict's impact on gold prices was also noted, as the metal traditionally seen as a safe haven asset during troubled times experienced a 13% decline to about $4,460 per ounce. Additionally, Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, warned that a prolonged conflict could lead to oil prices rising to $150 a barrel, potentially triggering a global recession.

The current situation highlights the urgent need for a long-term strategy to address energy costs. The CBI and EnergyUK have argued that a reset is necessary to cut energy costs for businesses, citing the thesis that high energy costs are holding back the UK economy. While the debate may be delayed by the current crisis, it is unlikely to go away, especially as other countries are adopting more strategic energy policies.

The UK's manufacturing sector has been hit by the sharpest rise in cost inflation since Black Wednesday in 1992, as the conflict in the Middle East drives up oil prices and disrupts supply chains. According to the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), cost inflation in manufacturing jumped to its highest level since October 2022, marking the largest month-on-month change since 1992.The rapid increases in costs mainly relate to fuel, transportation, and energy-intensive raw materials. The composite PMI index, covering services and manufacturing, stood at 51, suggesting the economy is still expanding, but at a sharply slower pace than the 53.7 seen in February.Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P; Global Market Intelligence, said: "Output growth across manufacturing and services has slowed to a crawl as companies blamed lost business directly on the events in the Middle East, whether through heightened risk aversion among customers, surging price pressures, higher interest rates, or via travel and supply chain disruptions."The CBI's survey of the retail sector also showed the fastest annual decline in sales volumes since April 2020, with the balance of retailers reporting rising sales at -52% in March, down from -43% in February.Martin Sartorius, lead economist at the CBI, said: "Retailers report that weak economic conditions continue to weigh on household spending, with subdued activity also evident across the broader distribution sector."Emily Sawicz, a director and industrials senior analyst at RSM UK, said: "Despite some resilience, geopolitical tensions remain a key concern for UK manufacturers – underscoring that conditions remain highly uncertain. The recovery many hoped to see take hold in 2026 now appears likely to be delayed at best, as rising energy costs and persistent inflation risks threaten to slow momentum."