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The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) released a stark assessment on Tuesday, projecting that a four‑week US‑Israel conflict with Iran could slash Arab regional GDP by 3.7 % to 6 %. In monetary terms, the loss translates to a contraction of $120 billion to $194 billion, marking one of the deepest economic shocks in recent Middle‑East history. UNDP’s regional director, Abdallah Al Dardari, warned that the downturn would likely eliminate 3.7 million jobs and drive around four million additional people below the poverty line. He described the situation as exposing the “fragility of the Arab economy.” The analysis is based on a scenario of a “short but intense conflict lasting for four weeks.” Should hostilities extend beyond that window, the economic fallout could be even more severe, especially as Iran’s attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure tighten oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Amid tightening supplies, Brent crude futures surged 4.7 % to over $118 per barrel. The report highlighted that disruptions to “strategic maritime corridors” generate “knock‑on effects on inflation, trade flows, and global supply chains,” threatening the livelihoods of interconnected economies across the region. Poverty spikes are expected to be most pronounced in the Levant and in “fragile” states such as Sudan and Yemen, where baseline vulnerability is already high and economic shocks translate quickly into welfare losses. Lebanon faces a compounded crisis after Hezbollah’s retaliatory strikes against Israel, following the US‑Israeli killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on 28 February. Ongoing air strikes, evacuation orders, and widespread destruction of residential areas, transport networks, and public services have triggered large‑scale displacement. Al Dardari concluded with a plea: “We hope the fighting will stop tomorrow, as every day of delay has negative repercussions on the global economy.”

Ukrainian unmanned aircraft have targeted the Russian Baltic port of Ust‑Luga for the fifth time within a ten‑day span, intensifying Kyiv's campaign against Russia's oil‑export infrastructure. Regional governor Alexander Drozdenko reported that three individuals, two of them children, received medical care after the latest overnight raid, and several structures sustained damage. He added that regional air‑raid alerts have since been lifted, though details on port damage remain scarce. Located on the southeastern coast of the Gulf of Finland, Ust‑Luga comprises an extensive network of oil‑processing plants and export terminals. The facility moved 32.9 million metric tonnes of oil products in the previous year and typically handles around 700,000 barrels of crude oil per day. The series of strikes on March 22, 25, 27, 29 and 31 forced temporary suspensions of export operations. According to market‑based calculations, the cumulative effect of drone attacks, a contested pipeline strike and the seizure of tankers has halted roughly 40 % of Russia's oil export capacity. The disruption has contributed to a surge in global oil prices, with Brent crude climbing above $116 a barrel – its highest level in nearly two weeks amid escalating conflicts involving the United States, Israel and Iran. While Kyiv continues to press its aerial campaign, the European Union dispatched senior diplomats, including top envoy Kaja Kallas, to the Ukrainian capital. Their visit, timed with the fourth anniversary of the Bucha massacre, underscored EU commitment to holding Russia accountable for alleged war crimes. Kallas posted on X, describing Bucha as a symbol of Russian brutality, and affirmed that the EU will not allow such atrocities to go unpunished. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha echoed the message, urging international partners to keep their focus on Ukraine despite the widening war in the Middle East. Financially, the EU’s planned €90 billion loan for Ukraine has been stalled by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who objects to Russia's oil transit through the Druzhba pipeline and is also impeding Ukraine's EU accession talks. In parallel, Kyiv announced that its air‑defence forces intercepted 267 of 289 Russian drones launched overnight, while Russian officials claimed control of the village of Mala Korchakivka in the Sumy region. The convergence of intensified drone attacks on Russian oil assets, soaring energy prices, and high‑level EU diplomatic activity highlights the expanding geopolitical ripple effects of the Ukraine conflict across Europe and the broader Middle‑East theater.

President Donald Trump is reportedly weighing a request for Arab countries to fund the U.S.–Israel war on Iran, White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Monday. Leavitt said the president is "quite interested" in calling on regional partners to share the expense.The idea mirrors the financing arrangement of the 1990‑91 Gulf War, when a coalition of Arab and Western nations covered roughly 88% of the $61 billion cost, leaving the United States to foot only about 12%.Trump also hinted that, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, other export‑dependent partners should manage the crisis. The strait carries about 20% of the world’s oil and LNG shipments; its shutdown has pushed Brent crude to **$116 per barrel**, up from pre‑war levels near **$65**.Iran, meanwhile, has demanded that the United States pay reparations to Iranian victims as a precondition for any cease‑fire.So far, there is no clear commitment from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members—countries that have themselves been hit by Iranian strikes—to finance the conflict. Analysts estimate the total bill could run into tens of billions of dollars, though exact figures remain uncertain.Experts note a shift in regional attitudes: GCC states opposed the war before it began and continue to call for diplomacy, according to Zeidon Alkinani of the Arab Perspectives Institute. He added that Israel appears to be the primary driver pushing the United States into the confrontation.History shows the United States has repeatedly sought external funding for wars it leads. During the Gulf War, Saudi Arabia contributed $16.8 billion (27% of total costs) and Kuwait $16 billion (26%). Japan, Germany, the UAE and South Korea also supplied sizable sums.Post‑World War II, the U.S. administered the Marshall Plan, providing over $13 billion to rebuild Europe, while Germany and Japan paid reparations and later funded the upkeep of U.S. bases—about $1 billion annually each.In the ongoing Ukraine war, the United States once delivered the largest aid package—€114.64 billion (≈$134 billion) by mid‑2025. Since Trump returned to office in 2025, he has withdrawn **99% of U.S. support**, shifting the financial load to European allies and turning the U.S. into a major arms supplier, with weapons sales reaching a record **$318.7 billion in 2024**. Recent deals, such as a $10 billion weapons package for Ukraine financed by European partners, illustrate this new model.These precedents underscore a pattern: when U.S. leadership faces costly overseas engagements, it often looks to allies—especially those with strategic interests—to share or assume the fiscal burden.

The Group of Seven (G7) countries have committed to taking all necessary measures to stabilize the energy market, which has been roiled by the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran. In a statement released after a teleconference organized by France, the G7 emphasized its readiness to preserve the stability and security of the energy market in close coordination with its partners. The meeting came as Brent crude prices surged above $116 a barrel due to Iran's retaliatory actions against Gulf oil producers and the effective blockade of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The G7, comprising the US, Canada, Japan, Britain, France, Germany, and Italy, also called on countries to refrain from imposing unjustified export restrictions on oil, gas, and related products. The International Energy Agency (IEA) had earlier agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from strategic stockpiles to combat spiking global crude prices. The G7 central banks have committed to maintaining price stability, with monetary policy to be based on data. The conflict has raised fears of further escalation that could drive oil and natural gas prices even higher.

President Donald Trump took to his Truth Social account on Tuesday to lambaste several European governments for declining to support the United States’ military campaign against Iran. He told nations struggling with fuel shortages to “go get your own oil” by force, a statement that immediately pushed global oil markets higher. European leaders pushed back. France barred Israeli aircraft carrying weapons from traversing French airspace, while Italy reportedly denied a last‑minute request for U.S. bombers to land in Sicily. Spain’s defence minister announced that Madrid would no longer tolerate “lectures” from any foreign power after refusing U.S. use of its bases and airspace. The United Kingdom, despite allowing U.S. forces to operate from its bases, faced a public rebuke from Trump, who singled out the UK for its inability to secure jet fuel through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth echoed the president’s hard‑line stance, suggesting that allied navies should be ready to intervene in the strategic waterway. Analysts warn that any attempt to seize the Strait of Hormuz by force would be highly risky and likely unrealistic. Nonetheless, the rhetoric has already contributed to a surge in fuel costs: U.S. gasoline prices have crossed the $4‑per‑gallon threshold for the first time in four years, and Brent crude slipped below $104 a barrel after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian hinted at a possible de‑escalation. The conflict, now in its fourth week, has claimed more than 3,000 lives and triggered a worldwide economic shock. Irish Taoiseach Micheál Martin described the oil‑supply disruption as “probably the worst ever,” reflecting growing anxiety over inflation, stagnant growth, and a cost‑of‑living crisis that many nations are already grappling with. In a parallel diplomatic development, Pakistan and China unveiled a joint five‑part proposal aimed at ending hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, though it remains unclear how this aligns with recent U.S. diplomatic overtures through Islamabad. Meanwhile, the war’s regional dimensions have intensified. Israel announced plans to permanently occupy a swath of southern Lebanon up to the Litani River, a move that would cement its military presence well beyond the current confrontation with Hezbollah. Even the Vatican entered the fray. Pope Francis expressed hope that the fighting would cease by the upcoming Easter weekend, urging world leaders to find “ways to reduce the amount of violence.” His comments were widely interpreted as a subtle rebuke of the Trump administration’s aggressive posture. Overall, Trump’s incendiary remarks have highlighted a widening fissure between Washington and its traditional European partners, while the escalating oil price volatility underscores the broader economic ramifications of the Iran conflict.

Households in Great Britain are bracing for a substantial hike in energy bills, with a typical gas and electricity bill forecast to reach £1,929 a year from July. This represents an increase of about £290 a year under the industry regulator Ofgem's quarterly price cap. The forecast hike is £288 a year higher than the £1,641 cap on energy bills set for April to June. Although the April price cap will be £117 a year, or 7%, lower than the January to March rate of £1,758, the short-lived reprieve from rising gas and electricity costs is expected to be more than offset by a string of rises facing households in the spring. The annual cost of essentials, including council tax and water, will increase by more than £200 from April even before the economic impact of the Iran war is felt by UK consumers. Most households in England and Wales will see an increase of about 5% in their council tax, while in Scotland bills will go up by between 4% and 10%. In Northern Ireland, rates are due to increase between 1.96% and 4.5%. Water bills in England and Wales are also due to rise, by an average of £33 a household from April, up 5.4% to £639. The cost of phones and broadband are expected to rise by an average of £39.60 for an annual bill and £27.60 for a typical mobile contract, according to Uswitch. Senior government ministers are expected to discuss the economic turmoil caused by the war at a Cobra meeting on Tuesday, after meeting with business leaders to discuss how the government and private sector can work together to respond to the crisis caused by surging oil market prices. The international oil benchmark rose 4% to more than $118 a barrel on Tuesday as Donald Trump said countries such as the UK should build up the “courage” to go to the strait of Hormuz and “just take” fuel. Experts fear that Brent crude could reach all-time highs of $150 a barrel if the conflict continues. “Bills going up again because of war thousands of miles away will be a tough pill to swallow for households still saddled with debt from last time,” said Jess Ralston, the head of energy at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit. “Unless we continue [to] shift away from gas, whether it comes from the North Sea or not, the risk remains that bills will continue to spike,” Ralston added.

A Kuwaiti oil tanker was attacked by an Iranian drone at Dubai port on Monday night, causing significant concern for the safety of civilian maritime workers in the region. The tanker, owned by Kuwait's state oil company, was carrying approximately 2 million barrels of oil, valued at over $200 million at current prices. The attack occurred amidst the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran, which has already led to thousands of deaths, disruptions in energy supplies, and fears of a global economic downturn. The incident has sparked a significant increase in oil prices, with Brent crude surging above $118 a barrel on Tuesday, marking a 59% gain for March, the largest monthly increase on record. Following the attack, dozens of tankers in the area have chosen to leave, seeking safer locations. A crew member on a nearby oil tanker described the situation as terrifying, stating, 'There's no safe place here.' The incident has also drawn a response from Donald Trump, who warned that the US would obliterate Iran's energy plants and oil wells if it did not open the Strait of Hormuz. The attack on the Salmi tanker, which was headed to Qingdao, China, has highlighted the vulnerability of maritime traffic in the region and the potential for further escalation in the conflict. Despite the fire being extinguished and no injuries reported, the situation remains tense, with many questioning the safety of their operations in the area.

The average price of fuel in the US has surpassed $4 per gallon for the first time in four years, reaching $4.02 per gallon nationwide, according to AAA data. This significant increase comes as the conflict between the US and Iran continues to escalate, boosting oil prices and putting pressure on drivers.On the west coast, drivers are facing even higher prices, with California averaging $5.89 per gallon and Washington state averaging $5.35 per gallon. The surge in oil prices has been driven by the Brent crude price hitting $115.48 per barrel, a global benchmark for oil prices.President Donald Trump has faced criticism for his handling of the situation, with many arguing that the rising fuel prices will hurt his chances in the upcoming midterm elections. In response, Trump has tried to downplay the impact of higher oil prices, claiming that the US will benefit as a whole due to its status as the largest oil producer in the world.However, Trump has also acknowledged that fuel prices will likely drop once the conflict with Iran is resolved. The president plans to withdraw US forces from the war "at some point," but emphasized that other countries will need to take on more responsibility to address the situation.

US President Donald Trump has stated that his 'preference would be to take the oil' in Iran, sparking concerns about the potential for a US invasion or occupation of the country. Iran is one of the world's biggest oil producers, holding around 24 percent of the Middle East's and 12 percent of the world's proven oil reserves, with about 157 billion barrels of proven crude oil.The Trump administration has threatened to target Iran's energy infrastructure, including oil wells, if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has been under a de facto Iranian blockade for weeks, triggering a global energy crisis. The US has also unveiled plans to prepare for limited ground operations in Iran, potentially including raids on Kharg Island and coastal sites near the Strait of Hormuz.Seizing Iranian oil would not be easy, as the US would have to occupy Iran's oil production sites and refineries, essentially occupying mainland Iran. However, if the US were to lift sanctions on Iranian oil after seizing it, it could lead to a flow of more Iranian oil into global markets, bringing down oil prices.The US-Israeli war on Iran has already sent global oil prices soaring, with benchmark Brent crude rising to more than 3 percent on Monday to $116 a barrel – the highest level in nearly two weeks. The oil price was about $65 per barrel before the war.In 2023, Iran's gross domestic product (GDP) was around $457.5bn, according to World Bank data. Iran's net oil export revenues were estimated at $53bn, equivalent to roughly 12 percent of Iran's GDP.This is not the first time the US has shown an interest in Iranian oil. In 1953, the government of Mohammad Mossadegh, Iran's first democratically elected prime minister, was toppled in a CIA-orchestrated coup after he nationalised the British-controlled firm Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (AIOC), the predecessor of modern-day BP.