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The United States and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with Iran reopening the strategic Strait of Hormuz and talks set to begin in Islamabad, Pakistan. The agreement was reached after a request from Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and pressure from China.Iran's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abbas Araghchi, confirmed that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be ensured for two weeks through coordination with the country's armed forces. Under the agreement, Iran and Oman will be allowed to charge transit fees on passing ships, with Tehran planning to use the revenue for post-war reconstruction.The ceasefire was agreed upon just an hour before US President Donald Trump's deadline to escalate the conflict expired. Trump's move followed a request from Pakistan's Prime Minister, who urged Washington to extend its deadline for a deal and called on Iran to reopen the strait. The breakthrough came after talks with Pakistan's leadership, which had pushed for a ceasefire.Iran has proposed a 10-point peace plan, which includes lifting sanctions, creating a war-loss fund, a potential US troop withdrawal from the Gulf, and recognition of Iran's right to enrich uranium in exchange for a pledge not to build nuclear weapons. However, it is unclear whether the US has agreed to any of these proposals.The ceasefire has triggered street celebrations in Tehran and Baghdad, with Iranian leaders declaring the conflict is ending 'on Iran's terms'. However, some citizens remain skeptical, warning the US and Israel may be using the pause to 'buy time' and regroup.The agreement has also had an impact on the global economy, with crude prices falling below $100 after Trump's announcement. However, analysts remain cautious, with markets in 'wait-and-see mode' as a 'big gap' remains in negotiations.

At a Pentagon briefing, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth asserted that Iran’s request for a temporary cease‑fire was a direct result of the United States’ intensive air campaign, which he described as having reduced Iran’s weapons factories to rubble and rendered its military ineffective for years to come. Hegseth, standing beside Joint Chiefs Chairman Dan Caine, said the final wave of strikes before President Donald Trump announced a two‑week pause had completely destroyed Iran’s defense industrial base. While Iran can still fire from existing stockpiles, it can no longer replace lost munitions, according to the secretary. President Trump posted on Truth Social that he had agreed to suspend hostilities less than two hours before his self‑imposed deadline to “decimate the entirety of Iranian civilization.” The decision followed a last‑minute diplomatic push by Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and army chief Gen Asim Munir. Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed Tehran’s acceptance of the pause, and the country’s supreme national security council announced it would send a delegation to Islamabad for formal talks starting Friday. Both sides claimed victory: Iran’s security council said it had achieved “nearly all the objectives of the war,” while the United States highlighted the crippling of Iran’s military capabilities. The cease‑fire ends a conflict that began on 28 February, when the U.S. and Israel launched nearly 900 strikes in a 12‑hour window against Iranian military infrastructure, missile sites, and leadership. The opening day saw the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with his son Mojtaba Khamenei named successor on 8 March. Hegseth warned that the United States had prepared additional strikes on Iran’s power plants, bridges and energy infrastructure—targets he said Iran could not defend or rebuild for decades—if Tehran had refused the pause. According to Joint Chiefs Chairman Caine, 13 U.S. service members were killed during the fighting. Total casualties across the region exceed 5,000, including over 1,600 Iranian civilians and at least 1,497 deaths in Lebanon. By the sixth day of the war, U.S. military spending had reached roughly $12.7 billion, with a pending supplemental request of $200 billion before Congress. The future of a lasting settlement remains uncertain. Trump later announced that Iran would hand over its enriched uranium and cease all enrichment activities, while Iran’s supreme national security council released a 10‑point counter‑proposal that explicitly demands the right to continue enrichment. Disagreements also persist over the cease‑fire’s scope. Israel maintains that the pause does not apply to Lebanon, where ground and air campaigns are at their most intense since Israel’s northern invasion. Both Pakistan and Iran, however, have stated that Lebanon is included in the cease‑fire. Subsequent reports indicated Iranian missile and drone attacks on Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, as well as strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure on Lavan Island. Iran’s supreme national security council warned that its forces remain on high alert, stating, “our hands are on the trigger, and any mistake by the enemy will be met with full force.” When asked about the long‑term U.S. presence in the region, Hegseth replied unequivocally: “We’re not going anywhere.”

Oil markets experienced a dramatic correction on Wednesday, with Brent crude falling 13.9% to $94.10 per barrel and U.S. WTI futures sliding almost 16% to $95, marking the steepest daily percentage drop since the COVID‑19 crash of April 2020. Despite the plunge, prices remain well above pre‑conflict levels, when Brent traded below $73.The price shock followed President Donald Trump's announcement of a two‑week, conditional ceasefire with Iran, contingent on Tehran reopening the strategic Strait of Hormuz for oil tankers. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, confirmed the strait would be managed by the Iranian military during the grace period, while Iran’s national security council accepted the ceasefire on the condition that U.S. attacks be halted.Equity markets reacted positively. The pan‑European Stoxx 600 surged 4%, its biggest one‑day gain in over four years. In the UK, the FTSE 100 climbed nearly 3% to 10,646 points, its highest level since the early days of the Iran war. Travel and leisure stocks led the rally, with Air France up 14.5%, Lufthansa +11%, IAG +9.5% and TUI +12%.Oil majors were the notable laggards; BP and Shell each lost more than 5% as investors priced in continued supply uncertainty. Asian markets also posted strong gains: Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose over 5%, Australia’s S&P;/ASX 200 jumped 2.55%, South Korea’s Kospi surged 7.5%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 3.1% and China’s CSI300 climbed 3.2%.Bond yields eased on the ceasefire news. The U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield fell to 4.24% from 4.30%, while the UK 10‑year gilt slipped to 4.7% from 4.9%.Safe‑haven assets rallied as well: gold rose more than 2% to $4,812 per ounce, and cryptocurrencies recovered, with Bitcoin up 2.9% to $71,327 and Ether gaining 5.6% to $2,234.Market strategists emphasized the provisional nature of the relief. Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank markets strategist, warned that “investors will be breathing a big sigh of relief, but the durability of the ceasefire remains the key risk.” He noted ongoing Israeli‑Iran strikes and unclear extensions to Lebanon could reignite volatility.Energy analyst Saul Kavonic (MST Financial) described the pause as “an off‑ramp for Trump’s bombastic ultimatum, but not yet an off‑ramp for oil markets or the war.” He expects a limited release of tankers from Hormuz in May, which would ease storage pressure without boosting production.Capital Economics chief economist Neil Shearing highlighted potential transit fees for Hormuz passage, estimating a $1‑2 million charge per tanker—equivalent to roughly $1 per barrel—would have a modest effect on global oil prices but could signal a de‑facto partial nationalisation of the route.TD Securities senior strategist Prashant Newnaha cautioned that “renewed escalation cannot be ruled out, but markets are treating this ceasefire as the real deal, and all parties will sell it as a major win.” He added that oil prices are unlikely to revert to pre‑war levels, keeping inflationary pressures alive.Earlier in the week, U.S. equities swung sharply, with the S&P; 500 dipping 1.2% before rebounding after Pakistan’s prime minister urged Trump to extend the deadline and keep the strait open.The conflict, which began after the U.S. and Israel struck Iranian targets in late February, has choked the Strait of Hormuz—through which about 20% of global oil and LNG supplies flow—fueling a worldwide energy crunch.

The ongoing conflict between the US and Iran has taken a critical turn with the involvement of US Vice President JD Vance in Pakistan-led mediation efforts. Vance has been working closely with Pakistani officials to facilitate a ceasefire and prevent further escalation. The mediation efforts, which began in late March, have gained significant momentum in recent days.According to sources close to the talks, Vance has been in direct communication with Iranian officials, including Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The Pakistani government has been playing a crucial role in facilitating the talks, with Field Marshal Asim Munir, the country's army chief, having spoken with Vance and Araghchi.The mediation efforts have produced tangible movement, with Iran confirming receipt of a ceasefire proposal. However, Tehran eventually rejected the plan, calling it 'illogical'. Despite this setback, the talks are ongoing, with Pakistani officials describing the negotiations as being at an advanced stage.Iran's preference for Vance is rooted in his record on foreign intervention. As a senator, Vance argued that Trump's success in office rested partly on avoiding new wars. He also warned that a conflict with Iran would not serve US interests and would be a 'huge distraction of resources'. This stance has been seen as more sympathetic to ending the conflict than other US officials.The mediation efforts have significant implications for the region, with a potential ceasefire having the potential to prevent further escalation and destabilization. The involvement of Vance and other officials has also raised questions about the political calculus of the US administration and its approach to the conflict.

President Donald Trump has proposed that the United States could charge a toll for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz after the war with Iran. This move would likely require direct US military control over the strategic waterway, which connects the Gulf to the Indian Ocean and handles about 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG).Trump made these comments while issuing what he called a 'final' ultimatum to Tehran to reopen the strait and agree to Washington's terms or face attacks against Iran's civilian infrastructure. He emphasized that any deal with Iran must include reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ensuring 'free traffic of oil'.The US president's suggestion comes as Iran has been sustaining drone and missile attacks across the region and maintaining a blockade of Hormuz. Despite this, Trump reiterated that Iran has been militarily defeated, a claim he has been making since the early days of the war.Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has called for 'new arrangements' to manage the waterway after the war, ensuring safe passage for ships and protecting Iran's interests. The White House has also indicated that Trump is considering asking Arab countries to pay for Washington's expenses in its war on Iran.

Iran’s only operational nuclear power station, the Bushehr plant, has endured a series of assaults amid the escalating Israel‑United States campaign against Tehran, sparking alarm over a possible regional nuclear incident.The most recent strike on Saturday resulted in the death of a security guard and damage to an auxiliary building, according to the state‑run Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran (AEOI).Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi asserted that the facility has been "bombed" four times since the conflict erupted on 28 February, accusing the United States and Israel of a "lack of concern" for nuclear safety.Security analysts stress that any bombing of the reactor or its spent‑fuel pools would unleash the radioactive isotope Caesium‑137, a contaminant capable of traveling far via wind and water, rendering soil, food and drinking supplies hazardous for decades and increasing cancer risks for exposed populations.The Bushehr complex, built by Russia and completed in 2011, supplies roughly 1,000 MW to Iran’s grid. It is the Middle East’s first nuclear plant and is slated to host two additional reactors by 2029, with hundreds of Russian technicians on site.The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has repeatedly warned that a direct hit could trigger a “regional catastrophe.” Director‑General Rafael Grossi told the UN Security Council that striking the plant could cause a "very high release of radioactivity" and, if power to the cooling system were cut, could lead to a reactor melt. He called for "maximum restraint," noting that evacuation zones could extend several hundred kilometres, requiring iodine prophylaxis and food‑supply restrictions.Beyond terrestrial fallout, experts highlight the danger of contaminating the Gulf’s shallow waters. Radioactive pollution would devastate marine ecosystems and cripple desalination plants, which lack the technology to filter such material. Qatar’s prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, warned that a simulated Bushehr attack would render the sea "entirely contaminated" and leave the country without water within three days.International law explicitly forbids targeting civilian nuclear installations. Article 56 of Protocol I to the Geneva Conventions bars attacks on "works and installations containing dangerous forces," and the IAEA’s own guidelines prohibit indiscriminate strikes on reactors, fuel storage, or power supplies.Araghchi also criticized the muted Western response, contrasting it with the outcry over Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia plant, which prompted emergency UN sessions, NATO warnings, and statements from the EU, UK and US. In the Bushehr case, the EU has remained silent, while Russia, which maintains a sizable staff at the site, issued a condemnation of the attacks.Historical precedents such as the 2011 Fukushima disaster and the 1986 Chernobyl explosion illustrate the long‑term human and environmental toll of nuclear accidents, underscoring why the safety of Bushehr is viewed as a matter of regional, not merely national, security.

Oman and Iran convened deputy foreign minister‑level talks on Saturday to discuss measures that could guarantee the smooth passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, according to a statement from the Omani Foreign Ministry.The meeting, described as an "undersecretary‑level" dialogue, was attended by specialists from both ministries, underscoring the technical nature of the discussions.Officials said the parties examined possible options to ensure safe transit amid the volatile regional environment, with a series of proposals now slated for further study.Tracking data from the shipping journal Lloyd’s List showed that, on Sunday, three Omani vessels – two large oil supertankers and an LNG carrier – navigated the strait outside Iran’s "approved corridor" near Larak Island, sailing unusually close to the Omani coast.Earlier in the week, an Iranian official announced a draft protocol with Oman aimed at monitoring traffic through the strait, which carries roughly one‑fifth of global oil supplies and has been heavily restricted as retaliation for the ongoing US‑Israeli war on Iran.Since the conflict erupted on February 28, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has permitted limited transits for vessels from Pakistan, France and Turkey, while an estimated about 3,000 ships remain stranded in the region.The Strait of Hormuz is a critical energy chokepoint; any disruption fuels market volatility and compels oil‑importing nations to scramble for alternative supplies.U.S. President Donald Trump took to social media over the weekend, warning that he would unleash “all Hell” if the waterway is not reopened by Monday, highlighting the geopolitical pressure surrounding the passage.Egypt’s foreign minister, Badr Abdelatty, held separate calls with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and regional counterparts, including Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, to explore de‑escalation proposals.Professor Amin Saikal, an emeritus scholar at the Australian National University, cautioned that an expansion of the war would be “hell for the whole region” and stressed the urgent need for a negotiated settlement, though he noted that diplomatic avenues appear increasingly narrow.

A projectile strike near Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant has resulted in the death of one person, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The incident occurred amid escalating US-Israeli strikes on Iranian industrial sites, raising concerns over the safety of nuclear facilities. The IAEA confirmed that there was no increase in radiation levels after the attack on Saturday, citing Iranian authorities. The agency's Director General, Rafael Grossi, expressed deep concern about the incident, emphasizing that nuclear sites and nearby areas must never be attacked. Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, claimed that the Bushehr facility had been bombed four times since the war erupted on February 28, criticizing the lack of concern for its safety. The strike damaged an auxiliary building on the site, but the main sections of the power plant were not affected. The incident has sparked a renewed call for maximum military restraint to avoid the risk of a nuclear accident. The US and Israel have been escalating their targeting of Iranian industrial sites, including petrochemical plants in the southern Khuzestan region. The Bushehr plant, Iran's only operational nuclear power plant, is located in Bushehr city and is one of the country's most important industrial and military nodes. The plant's safety has been a concern, with 198 Russian staff evacuated following the attack, according to Rosatom, Russia's state nuclear company.

President Donald Trump posted a terse three‑sentence message on Truth Social, giving Iran a 48‑hour deadline to either negotiate a deal or reopen the Strait of Hormuz to international traffic. The post, which omitted any reference to the ongoing hunt for a U.S. pilot believed to have ejected after an F‑15 fighter crashed in Iranian airspace, reignited diplomatic friction. Iran’s central military command responded within hours. General Ali Abdollahi Aliabadi dismissed the ultimatum as a “helpless, nervous, unbalanced and stupid action,” warning that the “gates of hell will open” for the United States. Earlier this week, Tehran claimed to have shot down an A‑10 Warthog near the Hormuz Strait, casting doubt on Trump’s earlier assertion that the United States has established dominance over Iranian airspace. The current threat follows a 10‑day deadline announced on March 26, which required Iran to open the strait or face the “destruction” of its energy facilities. That deadline expires on Monday, prompting Trump to write: “Time is running out – 48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them. Glory be to GOD!” In Tehran, the Khatam al‑Anbiya Central Headquarters echoed Aliabadi’s criticism, labeling the message as reckless and unbalanced. Trump’s rhetoric this week has also targeted Iranian infrastructure more broadly. He has threatened to strike power plants, oil facilities, and even “possibly all desalinization plants,” and in a recent national address warned he would bomb Iran “back to the Stone Ages.” More than 100 international law experts have warned that such attacks on civilian infrastructure could violate the Geneva Convention and constitute war crimes. Diplomatic efforts remain stalled. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran stays open to negotiations but rejected a “15‑point” plan from the Trump administration as “unreasonable.” The United States, meanwhile, views Iran’s demand for sovereignty over the Hormuz Strait as a “non‑starter.” Pakistan has pledged to continue supporting cease‑fire talks despite the “obstacles.” While Trump has not publicly addressed the missing pilot, NBC News reported that he told the network the incident would not affect negotiations: “No, not at all. No, it’s war.” Experts caution that if Iran captures the pilot, it could give Tehran a powerful bargaining chip and undermine U.S. claims of air‑space dominance. Marina Miron, a researcher at King’s College London, told Al Jazeera that the F‑15 shoot‑down demonstrates Iran’s ability to target U.S. aircraft, contradicting statements from Trump and Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth about complete U.S. control of Iranian airspace. She noted that Iran’s likely use of man‑portable air‑defence systems makes locating and neutralising them “much more difficult.” Miron warned that any U.S. rescue attempt could risk additional casualties and further escalation. “It’s a race for time,” she said, noting a critical window of up to 72 hours during which both sides are scrambling to secure the pilot for military and political purposes.