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The Problem with Inflated ARR Last month, Scott Stevenson, co-founder and CEO of the legal AI startup Spellbook, took to X to expose what he called a “huge scam” among AI startups: inflation of the revenue figures that they announce publicly. The Event Details: ARR Inflation in AI Startups Stevenson isn’t the first to claim that annual recurring revenue (ARR) — a metric historically used to sum up annual revenue of active customers under contract — is being manipulated by some AI companies beyond recognition. Certain aspects of ARR shenanigans have been the subject of multiple news reports and social media posts. The Data Analysis: Extent of ARR Inflation Some investors have seen companies where CARR (committed ARR) is 70% higher than ARR. One high-profile enterprise startup reported surpassing $100 million in ARR, when only a fraction of that revenue came from currently paying customers. An employee at another startup described a discrepancy where marketing materials claimed $50 million in ARR, while the actual figure was $42 million. The Impact Analysis: Consequences of ARR Inflation The obvious problem with using CARR and calling it ARR is that it is far more susceptible to being “gamed” than traditional ARR. If a startup doesn’t account realistically for churn and downsell, CARR could be inflated. The Prediction: Future Outlook Most people interviewed for this story said that ARR overstatements of all kinds are hardly a novel phenomenon, but startups have become far more aggressive amid the AI hype. The pressure to show rapid growth is prompting some VCs to support, or at least overlook, startups presenting inflated ARR figures to the public.

The Lead: US Imposes New Sanctions on Lebanon The United States has recently implemented additional sanctions targeting Lebanon, escalating economic pressure on the already struggling nation. These measures, announced by the US Treasury Department, come at a critical time as Lebanon faces its worst economic crisis in modern history, with over 80% of the population living in poverty and the currency losing over 90% of its value since 2019. The Event Details: Scope of New Sanctions The latest round of sanctions specifically targets Lebanese financial institutions and individuals accused of facilitating corruption and obstructing political reforms. The US Treasury designated several Lebanese banks and financial entities, freezing their assets and prohibiting American citizens from engaging in transactions with them. Additionally, sanctions were placed on Lebanese politicians and businessmen accused of undermining Lebanon's democratic institutions and facilitating illicit financial activities. The sanctions are part of a broader US strategy to pressure Lebanese officials to implement anti-corruption measures and form a government capable of implementing necessary economic reforms. The US has been critical of Lebanon's political deadlock, which has left the country without a fully functioning government for extended periods. The Data Analysis: Economic Impact Assessment Economic analysts predict that these sanctions could further strain Lebanon's already crippled banking sector. The country's banks have been subject to restrictions since 2019, but the latest measures could isolate them further from international financial systems. Key economic indicators that may be affected: Foreign currency reserves: Already critically low, further sanctions may limit access to international markets Inflation rates: Currently exceeding 200%, additional economic pressure could exacerbate hyperinflation Remittances: Lebanese diaspora contributions, which account for an estimated 15% of GDP, may be disrupted Humanitarian aid: Organizations providing essential services may face increased difficulties in transferring funds The International Monetary Fund, which has been engaged in negotiations with Lebanon for a potential bailout program, has expressed concern that the sanctions could complicate economic recovery efforts. The Impact Analysis: Regional Geopolitical Ramifications The sanctions occur against a backdrop of complex regional dynamics in the Middle East. Lebanon's political landscape is heavily influenced by Iran-backed Hezbollah, which the US has designated as a terrorist organization. The sanctions are likely to deepen the divide between Western-aligned factions and Iran-aligned groups within Lebanon's political spectrum. Regional implications include: Strain on US relations with France and other European allies who have advocated for more measured approaches to Lebanon Potential escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, with Lebanon caught in the middle Increased influence of China and Russia in Lebanon as alternative partners amid Western pressure Impact on the broader Arab world, where other nations may reassess their relationships with the US The sanctions also come as Lebanon continues to recover from the devastating 2020 Beirut port explosion, which killed over 200 people and left thousands injured. The investigation into that incident has been marred by political interference, with several Lebanese officials sanctioned by the US for obstructing justice. The Prediction: Path Forward for Lebanon Looking ahead, Lebanon faces a challenging period of economic adjustment and political realignment. The sanctions may ultimately achieve their stated goals of pressuring Lebanese officials to implement reforms, but they risk exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in the short term. Potential scenarios include: Formation of a reform-minded government capable of implementing IMF-mandated economic changes Deepening economic crisis leading to increased social unrest and potential political instability Greater regional involvement in Lebanon's affairs, with Gulf states potentially offering financial assistance in exchange for political influence Long-term economic restructuring that could take a decade or more to implement The international community will be watching closely to see how Lebanon navigates these challenges. The outcome will likely have significant implications not only for Lebanon's future but also for the broader geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.

The Ripple Effect of Fear in San DiegoThe recent events in San Diego have transcended a local incident, creating a profound sense of instability within the city. The intersection of a specific mosque and the Muslim community has become the focal point of a broader narrative regarding safety and belonging. This situation has not only affected the immediate participants but has also cast a long shadow over the city's social cohesion.A Community Under Siege: The Mosque and Its FollowersThe situation has placed the local Muslim population in a precarious position. The incident at the mosque is not merely a physical event but a psychological one, affecting the daily lives and sense of security of thousands of residents. The mosque has become a symbol of the community's resilience against external pressures, while the surrounding area reflects a heightened state of alert.San Diego has become the epicenter of a growing conversation about religious intolerance and civic safety.The mosque serves as a focal point for both the community's grief and their determination to maintain their presence.Local authorities are facing increased scrutiny regarding the protection of religious sites and the prevention of hate crimes.Shifting Dynamics of Civic TrustThe phrase "a city shaken" suggests a breakdown in the social fabric. When a specific demographic feels targeted, the entire city's sense of safety is compromised. This incident highlights the fragility of interfaith relations in urban environments and the rapid speed at which fear can spread through a community.Navigating the Aftermath of Social UnrestLooking forward, San Diego faces a critical juncture. The city must address the root causes of the tension to restore normalcy. Without decisive action to bridge the divide, the fear generated by this event could have long-term consequences for the community's cohesion and the city's reputation as an inclusive hub.

The Familiar FinalYou could be forgiven for having a sense of deja vu before a fourth Champions League final between the Spanish champions, Barcelona, and French champions, Lyonnes, on Saturday evening.The three-time champions and eight-time champions played each other in the final of Europe's premier competition three times in six years between 2019 and 2024, with Lyonnes earning a 4-1 win over the Catalan giants in 2019 and a 3-1 win in 2022 before Barcelona delivered a 2-0 defeat of the French side in 2024.However, predicting the outcome could not be harder and Barcelona's talismanic No 11, Alexia Putellas, said there is little that can be discerned from those previous meetings. "We can't compare seasons and we can't compare finals," said the two-time Ballon d'Or winner. "Our squad has evolved a lot, so previous finals don't have an influence on the final we are playing tomorrow."The Tactical Chess MatchA lot has changed. Most notably, Lyonnes are now managed by Jonatan Giráldez, who was a coach at Barcelona as they claimed their maiden UWCL title and at the helm for their second and third. Few managers are better equipped to return Lyonnes to the top of European football after a three-year hiatus than the man who understands the way Barça work and exactly how they ended the domination of the French side.As a result, the tactical approach of those on the sidelines is perhaps the most interesting piece of the puzzle in Oslo's Ullevaal Stadion.Giráldez said of Barça's development since he left: "They have some different players but their identity remains the same; this will to dominate and apply pressure. Not thinking about the result as much as about the show and the performance, that's their identity. I feel privileged to face Barcelona as I'm grateful for the experience I had there and I wish them the best – except when we have to win!"Master and ApprenticeOne of Giráldez's two assistants, Pere Romeu, replaced him when he departed for Washington Spirit in June 2024. "We are the two teams that have done the most in this competition to reach the final in recent years," said Romeu. "Tomorrow is going to be a very demanding match. Tomorrow is going to be a match with a lot of quality from both teams. Tomorrow is going to be a match that, as in all finals, is going to be decided by small details. We are going to try to take care of and control it to the maximum."The 32-year-old Barcelona manager won a domestic treble in his first season in charge, but fell short in the Champions League final last season as Arsenal delivered a shock defeat."I see a team that is more mature than last season," said Romeu. "I see a team with greater capacity to change things during the game than last season and I think we have reached a good point."Putellas described Romeu as a "complete coach", before the showdown on Saturday. "We've been working together for several seasons now and he has always tried to help me evolve as a player, which I'm very grateful for," she said. "He's the most complete coach. This season I've tried to do the best I possibly can without forgetting my own qualities in order to help the team."Romeu is relishing the master-apprentice battle in such a significant game. "I, as a coach, am super-excited to be able to face this match against a former coach of the club in Jonatan," he said. "I'm sure we'll both do everything we can to keep our teams' identities and keep doing the best we can to win."Dominate DomesticallyBarcelona secured another domestic treble on Saturday with a 3-1 Copa de la Reina final win over Atlético Madrid in their final game before travelling to Norway. Meanwhile, Lyonnes are one game away from their own domestic treble, having dispatched Nantes with an emphatic 8-0 win in the semi-final of the Premiere Ligue play-offs, with the final between the holders and Paris FC, taking place next Friday.The Lyonnes midfielder Lily Yohannes told Uefa that the club "just have so much hunger in us," after their three-year European dry spell. "We have so much fight. No matter what happens, we stick together, we rise above the challenges, and we just have such a winning mentality in the group."The 35-year-old centre-back Wendie Renard, who has been involved in each of the club's record eight Champions League wins, similarly spoke about a togetherness and desire in the team after a disappointing European run last season."If I had to sum up our journey this season: dedication," she told Uefa. "A Champions League campaign never comes easy, from one game to another. We've also had doubts and fears at times, but the squad has remained strong, and we've kept focusing on work and humility and performed well together."The Midfield BattleThe midfield battle will be key, with the impact of Melchie Dumornay, who was the difference maker in their semi-final fightback against Arsenal, critical for Lyonnes and Barcelona unsure of the readiness of the three-time Ballon d'Or winner Aitana Bonmatí, who is "feeling better every day", according to Romeu, but has not played 90 minutes for the team since November and only played 18 minutes of the Copa de la Reina final.Contrasting StylesThe Champions League final will ultimately be a contest between two different ways of playing, Barcelona's slick tiki-taka football and the more aggressive way Lyonnes play. Both cannot dominate possession in this game, one will have to cede it and find a different way to win. That is what makes it an enthralling fixture.

The Rediscovery of Gaza's Pre-Conflict EraDecades-old photographs have emerged, offering a rare glimpse into life in Gaza during happier times. These images, recently brought to light, showcase a vibrant community filled with laughter, cultural activities, and everyday joys that stand in stark contrast to the current reality in the region.A Visual Journey Through Gaza's HistoryThe collection of photographs spans several decades, capturing moments of celebration, family gatherings, and community life in Gaza. The images reveal a society rich in culture and social connections, with markets bustling, children playing in the streets, and families enjoying leisure time together.Documenting a Lost EraThese photographs hold significant historical value, documenting a period before the conflicts that have shaped Gaza's recent history. They serve as an important cultural record, preserving memories of a time when daily life was marked by normalcy rather than the challenges faced by residents today.Generational Impact of Historical ImagesThe circulation of these historical images has sparked conversations about Gaza's cultural heritage and the resilience of its people. For many, particularly younger generations who have only known life under conflict, these photographs provide a connection to a past that may seem almost foreign.Cultural Preservation Through PhotographyHistorians and cultural preservationists emphasize the importance of such visual documentation in maintaining collective memory. These photographs not only capture moments of joy but also serve as a testament to the rich social fabric of Gaza that continues to endure despite ongoing challenges.

The Lead: Pakistan's Diplomatic Push in Iran CrisisPakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, is in Iran as part of ongoing mediation efforts to end the Israel and United States's war that began on February 28. This high-level diplomatic visit comes as the US reports slight progress in negotiations while tensions remain high in the region.The Event Details: Pakistan's Second Mediation MissionMunir arrived in Tehran on Friday, Iran's state-run IRNA news agency reported, citing the Pakistan Army. "On arrival, he was received and warmly welcomed by Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni," IRNA said, adding that "Pakistan's Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi was also present at the reception."It is the second such trip to Tehran by Munir amid Pakistani mediation efforts to end the war. Islamabad helped secure a temporary ceasefire between the warring sides on April 8, and later hosted the highest-level talks between the US and Iran since 1979 on April 11-12.During this visit to Iran, unnamed Pakistani sources told the Anadolu news agency that Munir will discuss Iran-US talks, regional peace and stability, and other "important issues".The Data Analysis: Shifting Positions in Negotiations"The current process and the presence of senior Pakistani officials in Tehran means that we have reached a turning point or a decisive situation," Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil ⁠Baghaei said on Friday.Iranian state media quoted Baghaei as saying the gaps between Tehran and Washington are "deep and significant". "We cannot necessarily say that we have reached a point where an agreement is close," he said. "The focus of the negotiations is on ending the war. Details related to the nuclear issue are not being discussed at this stage."Speaking at the White House on Friday, US President Donald Trump said, "Iran is dying to make a deal". "We'll see what happens. But we hit them hard, and we had no choice because Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. They cannot have it," Trump added.US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday that "slight progress" was made during talks with Iran. "I don't want to exaggerate the progress in talks, saying there had been 'a little bit of movement, and that's good'. He said the conversations were ongoing.The Impact Analysis: Regional and Global RamificationsThe Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries a fifth of global oil production, have sent ripples through the global economy, driving energy prices soaring.As diplomatic efforts continue, European Union nations moved towards imposing sanctions on Iranian officials and others responsible for blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the EU said on Friday. Tehran effectively closed the key shipping lane for global oil and gas supplies in retaliation for the US-Israeli war."The EU will now be able to introduce further restrictive measures in response to Iran's actions undermining the freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz," the European Council representing EU nations said.Trump has repeatedly set deadlines for Tehran and then backed off. But he's also previously indicated he would hold off on military action to allow talks to continue, only to turn around and launch strikes. The US president said he called off attacks on Iran this week at the request of allies in the Middle East, including the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.The Prediction: Path Forward for Diplomatic SolutionsIran's ⁠Baghaei said ⁠on Friday that a Qatari delegation ‌was currently holding talks with Iran's foreign minister, ⁠but added that ⁠Pakistan remained the main ⁠mediator in ⁠the ⁠negotiations.With Pakistan intensifying its mediation process to secure a second round of direct talks between the US and Iran, the region remains on edge. While both sides report some progress, the deep gaps between Tehran and Washington suggest that a comprehensive resolution to the conflict remains elusive, with potential for both diplomatic breakthroughs and military escalation still on the table.

The Lead: Guardiola's Emotional Farewell After a Decade of Excellence Pep Guardiola has officially announced his departure from Manchester City after 10 transformative years at the helm of one of football's most dominant clubs. The Spanish manager, who has led City to unprecedented domestic success, delivered his final press conference with characteristic emotion and wit, reflecting on a journey that has changed both him and the club forever. The Event Details: A Press Conference Like No Other Guardiola's final press conference was anything but ordinary. Having conducted over 1,100 media sessions during his City tenure, this one required him to summarize a decade of achievement in just 30 minutes. The manager arrived in a black hoodie, cracking jokes about facing Aston Villa while clearly preparing for an emotional farewell. The morning had been a whirlwind of announcements: first confirming his exit at 11:12am, then learning that City's expanded North Stand would be named in his honor. Chair Khaldoon al-Mubarak delivered the news about the stand, while Guardiola only discovered his future statue when informed by a journalist - joking he fears being covered in bird poo. Guardiola's emotional farewell speech to the players earlier that day was, in his own words, "a disaster," highlighting the difficulty of finding appropriate words after such a long and successful tenure. He expressed relief similar to what John Stones felt upon hearing the news, acknowledging the emotional toll of his decision. The Data Analysis: A Legacy Measured in Trophies and Transformation Guardiola's decade at Manchester City has been one of the most successful managerial spells in English football history. Under his leadership, City has: Won 6 Premier League titles, including 4 consecutive championships Secured 2 FA Cups Lifted 6 League Cups Reached the UEFA Champions League final Transformed from a promising club to a global football powerhouse The Catalan manager's impact extends beyond trophies. He has revolutionized City's playing style, developed world-class talent, and transformed the club's global brand. His influence is so profound that many consider City "the club Guardiola built," with him stating, "I like to think my vibe and energy will be there for ever." The Impact Analysis: Changing Manchester and Football Forever The symbiotic relationship between Guardiola and Manchester has transformed both. The manager has embraced his role as an honorary Mancunian, referencing the city's culture and even the 2017 Manchester Arena attacks, when his family was at the venue. He famously used the words of Manchester poet Tony Walsh: "This is my place." Guardiola's influence extends beyond football. His presence has been credited with an increase in tapas restaurants and elevated the profile of local clubs like Stockport County, which he famously visited for a League One game. His connection with Noel Gallagher of Oasis and other cultural figures has bridged the gap between football and Manchester's broader identity. The manager's departure comes at a time when City faces significant challenges, including ongoing charges and the need to maintain dominance without their architect. His exit marks the end of an era that has defined English football for the past decade, setting a new standard for excellence and innovation. The Prediction: What Comes Next for Guardiola and Manchester City Guardiola has indicated he will take a well-deserved break, mentioning his desire to play more golf, drink wine, and spend time with his children. While he joked about waiting for the England manager's job to become available, many speculate he may take a sabbatical from management entirely. For Manchester City, the challenge will be finding a successor who can maintain the club's high standards while navigating ongoing legal and sporting challenges. The club has already been linked with Enzo Maresca, though Guardiola's press conference made clear no succession plans were discussed - this was his day. Whatever Guardiola chooses next, his legacy at City is secure. The naming of the North Stand in his honor and plans for a statue ensure his physical presence will remain at the Etihad. As he himself acknowledged, "Nothing is eternal," but his impact on Manchester City and English football will endure for generations to come.

The Spygate Scandal That Reshaped the Championship PlayoffsWhen television cameras captured Hayden Hackney crying after Middlesbrough's extra-time defeat to Southampton in the Championship playoff semi-final, little did the Championship's player of the season know that images captured days earlier would ultimately ensure his presence at Wembley. Southampton's expulsion from the playoffs for spying on Middlesbrough's training session has set up an unexpected final between Boro and Hull City, with both teams attempting to disregard the surrounding 'weird and crazy' noise.The Unfolding of the Spygate ScandalThe controversy began when Southampton manager Tonda Eckert dispatched an intern analyst, William Salt, to film one of Middlesbrough's pre-match training sessions on his phone. The mission's aim was to assess the availability of Hayden Hackney, who had been sidelined with a calf injury. Unfortunately for Salt, a freelance photographer on assignment with Middlesbrough happened to capture images of him attempting to conceal himself between a tree and a bush.Middlesbrough promptly submitted a formal complaint to the English Football League (EFL), and 'spygate' began gaining rapid traction in the national news agenda. The disciplinary commission subsequently expelled Southampton from the playoffs and docked them four points for the next season. When Southampton's appeal was dismissed just over 24 hours later, the precedent was set that would ultimately send Middlesbrough to Wembley.The Financial Stakes of the Unexpected FinalThe Championship playoff final represents a potential windfall of at least £205m in additional Premier League revenue for the winner. Hull City owner Acun Ilicali has spent recent days consulting lawyers who believe Southampton's expulsion should result in automatic promotion and the cancellation of the playoff final. Meanwhile, Jakirovic has bought 70 Wembley tickets for family and friends from Croatia, highlighting the personal significance of this unexpected opportunity.For Middlesbrough manager Kim Hellberg, the situation has been particularly challenging. 'The head is tired,' admitted the 38-year-old as he discussed a 'weird and crazy' fortnight. 'There's been a lot of emotion. I haven't been able to sleep.' Hellberg's initial plan to keep the players training between the semi-final and the disciplinary commission was disrupted, making preparation for the final unusually difficult.How the Scandal Echoes Previous Football Espionage CasesThe EFL disciplinary panel's judgment was heavily informed by the so-called 'Canada case' from 2024, where Canada women's coach Bev Priestman was found to have choreographed a spying operation against New Zealand at the Paris Olympics. Canada was docked six Olympic points, and Priestman and two of her staff were banned from football for a year by FIFA.As Eckert contemplates a career in apparent tatters, he can take some heart from Priestman's impressive comeback at New Zealand's A-League women's side Wellington Phoenix. However, Eckert faces not only the sack at Southampton but a Football Association inquiry into his supervision of espionage against not merely Middlesbrough but Oxford and Ipswich, too, with a potential ban looming.Two Managers' Unexpected Paths to WembleyWhile Middlesbrough's Swedish manager Kim Hellberg was a surprise appointment when he swapped Stockholm's Hammarby for Teesside after Rob Edwards's defection to Wolves last November, Hull's Sergej Jakirovic had even more modest ambitions. Back in August, finishing 'somewhere between 10th and 15th' represented the summit of his aspirations when he arrived from Turkey.When Jakirovic took over at Hull, the club had just avoided relegation to League One on goal difference on the final day of the previous season. Moreover, an EFL transfer embargo restricted him to recruiting free agents and loan signings. Hull's sixth-placed league finish and defeat of Millwall in the playoff semi-final emphasizes that Hellberg would be unwise to underestimate the tactical talent of this Mostar-born Jürgen Klopp admirer and gegenpressing disciple.The Future of English Football Post-SpygateThis scandal has raised important questions about the integrity of English football and the measures needed to prevent similar incidents in the future. The EFL will likely face pressure to strengthen its regulations regarding spying and unauthorized filming of training sessions. Meanwhile, both Middlesbrough and Hull City must now navigate the unique challenge of preparing for a playoff final that neither expected to reach just weeks ago.For the players, particularly Hayden Hackney who is expected to make his first appearance since March, the final represents an opportunity to write their own story, separate from the controversy that has dominated the headlines. As both teams prepare for Wembley, the focus will shift from the 'weird and crazy' spygate noise to the football itself, with the winner securing a place in the Premier League and the financial rewards that come with it.

The Lead Thomas Tuchel has made Ivan Toney the wildcard selection for England's World Cup squad after holding 'clear-the-air' talks with him over his attitude. The England head coach also considered how Harry Kane likes to play alongside Toney before making the Al-Ahli striker the most eye-catching inclusion of his 26-man party for the tournament. Tuchel's Squad Announcement Tuchel's squad announcement at Wembley was dominated by the players he overlooked – chiefly Cole Palmer, Phil Foden, and Harry Maguire. Tuchel said Palmer had 'just failed' to produce consistently this season, while he admitted he no longer knew Foden's best position. The Data Analysis Toney has come in from the cold, having been involved in only one camp under Tuchel – in June of last year for the matches against Andorra and Senegal. Toney's involvement was limited to two minutes of the latter game and he did nothing to impress Tuchel with his application. The Impact Analysis Tuchel was plainly annoyed at how Maguire reacted to being told of his exclusion. The central defender took to social media to declare himself 'shocked and gutted'. Tuchel said Maguire's words were a 'surprise' and 'not necessary'. The Prediction Tuchel has overlooked Luke Shaw, Trent Alexander-Arnold, and Adam Wharton. The manager said that a factor in Wharton's omission was the ability of Reece James and John Stones to play as a deep midfielder. The squad's Arsenal contingent – Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka, Noni Madueke, and Eberechi Eze – will join up a little later for the World Cup acclimatisation camp in Florida.