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Ethiopians started voting on 1 June 2026 in parliamentary and regional elections, and analysts expect Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party to dominate the results despite significant security challenges across the country.Voting Begins Amid Exclusion of Tigray and Regional ConflictMore than 50 million citizens are registered to vote, but the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) has suspended polling in the northern Tigray region, citing “unfavourable conditions” after the 2020‑2022 civil war. In Oromia, clashes with the Oromo Liberation Army have caused hundreds of deaths, while in Amhara the Fano armed group has disrupted voting in at least eight of the region’s 138 constituencies.Numbers Shaping the Election: Voter Registration, Seats, and Projected Growth50 million registered voters on election day.Prosperity Party previously won 410 of 484 parliamentary seats in the 2021 election.Ethiopia’s population stands at roughly 135 million, with nearly half under the age of 18.Official forecasts project national economic growth to exceed 10 percent in 2026, one of the fastest rates on the continent.Implications for Ethiopia’s Political Stability and Regional RelationsThe opposition alleges systematic suppression, including arrests of party leaders and legal obstacles to campaigning, claims the government denies. Human‑rights groups warn that recent crackdowns on journalists and civil‑society actors could reverse reforms introduced after 2018. Meanwhile, renewed rhetoric about Ethiopia’s right to sea access has strained ties with Eritrea, reviving old animosities.What the June 11 Results Could Mean for Ethiopia’s FutureIf the Prosperity Party secures a landslide, it will consolidate Abiy Ahmed’s grip on power and enable continuation of his economic agenda. However, persistent regional insurgencies and a fragmented opposition could limit the government’s ability to deliver on promised growth and could reignite internal conflicts, influencing both domestic stability and Ethiopia’s role in the Horn of Africa.

The Lead-Up to the Elections Ethiopia is preparing for its first elections since the peace deal in Tigray, a region that has been a focal point of conflict. The upcoming vote is seen as a critical milestone in the country's journey towards political stability and recovery. Details of the Elections The elections will take place across the country, with citizens heading to the polls to cast their votes. The process is expected to be closely watched by both domestic and international observers to ensure transparency and fairness. The Significance of the Peace Deal The peace deal in Tigray was a significant achievement, bringing an end to a period of intense conflict. The success of these elections will be a crucial indicator of the country's progress in rebuilding and stabilizing. The Road Ahead As Ethiopia moves forward with these landmark elections, the international community is watching closely. The outcome will have implications not just for Ethiopia but for the broader region, influencing political and economic dynamics.

The Lead: Ethiopia's Critical ElectionEthiopia is conducting elections amid a severe human rights crisis that has intensified in recent years. The international community is watching closely as the vote takes place against a backdrop of ethnic conflicts, political repression, and growing humanitarian concerns.The Election Landscape: Political Tensions MountThe Ethiopian election occurs as the country faces significant political challenges. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government has been criticized for its handling of various conflicts, particularly in the Tigray region. Opposition parties have raised concerns about the fairness of the electoral process and the space for political dissent.The Human Rights Crisis: Escalating ConcernsHuman rights organizations have documented widespread violations across Ethiopia. These include arbitrary detentions, suppression of free speech, and violence against ethnic minorities. The conflict in Tigray has resulted in what the UN describes as some of the worst human rights abuses in the world, with millions displaced and thousands killed.International Response: Global Pressure MountsThe international community has expressed increasing concern about Ethiopia's human rights situation. The United States, European Union, and other nations have called for peaceful resolution of conflicts and respect for human rights. Some countries have imposed sanctions on Ethiopian officials over human rights violations.The Path Forward: Challenges and PossibilitiesAs Ethiopia votes, the country faces critical choices about its future. Addressing the human rights crisis will require political will, reconciliation efforts, and respect for democratic principles. The outcome of this election could significantly impact Ethiopia's trajectory and its relationship with the international community.

Why Ethiopia’s June Vote Is a Turning PointThe upcoming national election, slated for June 2026, marks the first scheduled poll since the 2018 political reforms and the subsequent postponement of the 2020 vote. Observers see it as a litmus test for the durability of the reform agenda and the country’s ability to manage deep‑seated ethnic and security challenges.Key Political Players and the Electoral CalendarThe contest pits incumbent Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his Prosperity Party against a fragmented opposition that includes the Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice (ECSJ) and regional parties representing the Oromo and Tigray regions. The electoral timeline, set by the National Election Board, includes voter registration deadlines in April 2026 and a campaign period that officially opens in May 2026.Economic and Demographic Indicators Shaping Voter SentimentInflation has hovered above 30% for the past year, eroding real wages.Unemployment among youth remains above 20%, fueling discontent.Population growth of roughly 2.5% annually adds pressure on public services.These macro‑economic pressures intersect with regional grievances, influencing how different constituencies view the ruling party’s performance.Potential Ripple Effects Across the Horn of AfricaA credible election could bolster Ethiopia’s role as a stabilising force in the Horn, encouraging investment and cooperation on trans‑border water projects. Conversely, a contested result risks reigniting cross‑border tensions, especially with neighboring Sudan and South Sudan, where refugee flows and trade links are already sensitive to Ethiopian domestic stability.Scenarios to Watch as the Ballot ApproachesScenario A – Peaceful Transfer: International observers certify the vote, opposition gains parliamentary seats, and reforms accelerate.Scenario B – Disputed Outcome: Allegations of fraud trigger protests, security forces intervene, and the political crisis deepens.Scenario C – Postponement or Cancellation: Renewed security concerns lead to another delay, further eroding public trust.Each pathway carries distinct implications for Ethiopia’s democratic trajectory and for regional geopolitics.

The Lead-Up to the Election Ethiopians vote on Monday in a general election to choose members of parliament, who will in turn select the next prime minister. The National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) said 47 political parties and more than 10,900 candidates are in the race, including 2,198 for the federal parliament, 8,736 for regional and city councils and 73 independents. The Main Political Parties The contest brings together ruling, opposition, regional and independent politicians under Ethiopia’s federal parliamentary system, where the government is formed through a parliamentary majority and MPs select the prime minister. The Prosperity Party (PP) The Prosperity Party is the ruling political party in Ethiopia, led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. It was formed in 2019 following the merger of several regional parties that previously made up the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). The party holds a majority in the House of Peoples’ Representatives following the 2021 general election. The National Movement of Amhara (NAMA) The National Movement of Amhara is a regional political party operating mainly in Ethiopia’s Amhara region. It is led by Belete Molla and participates in Ethiopia’s federal parliamentary elections through constituency-based contests. Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice (EZEMA) The Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice is a national political party led by Berhanu Nega. Formed in 2019, it has participated in national elections since 2021 and operates across multiple regions. The Peace for Ethiopia Coalition The Peace for Ethiopia coalition is an alliance of smaller regional parties, including the Agew National Council, Gamo Democratic Party, Gambella Peoples’ Freedom Movement, Kaffa Green Party, and Tigray Democratic Cooperation. Electoral Stakes and Political Environment The election will determine the composition of Ethiopia’s federal government and which party or coalition controls parliament. Elected MPs will select the prime minister, who then forms the federal government. Voter Engagement and Demographics NEBE reports that more than 50 million people are registered to vote in the election. Young people make up a large share of the population, with a median age of about 19 years, according to UN population estimates. Women account for around half of registered voters.

The Lead-Up to Ethiopia's Elections Ethiopia will head to the polls on June 1 for its first nationwide elections since the formal end of the Tigray war, a devastating two-year conflict from 2020 to 2022 that concluded with a peace agreement between the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Ethiopia at a Glance Ethiopia is a landlocked country in the Horn of Africa, covering an area of 1,104,300sq km (426,400sq miles) and bordered by Eritrea, Sudan, South Sudan, Kenya, Somalia and Djibouti. The country has sustained notable economic growth over the past two decades, with the IMF projecting a 9.2 percent expansion in 2026, the highest on the continent. Yet persistent challenges remain, including high inflation (11.7 percent as of April 2026), foreign exchange shortages, and the costly burden of post-war reconstruction. Ethiopia's Ethnic Groups The East African country is one of the most ethnically diverse countries in the world, with more than 80 distinct groups. The Oromo are the largest, making up about 35 percent of the population, concentrated largely in the south and central regions. The Amhara are the second-largest, about 24 percent, and have historically been the politically dominant group. Other significant groups include the Somali (7 percent), in the east; the Tigrayan (6 percent), concentrated in the northern Tigray region; and the Sidama (4 percent), in the southern highlands. Armed Violence Across the Country Ethiopia has been in near-continuous conflict since 2020, across several fronts: Tigray (2020-22): Ethiopian forces (ENDF) and their allies, including Eritrean forces, fought the Tigray defence forces (TDF). Oromia (2019-present): Conflict between Oromia regional forces, the ENDF, and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) has killed thousands of civilians. Amhara (2023-present): Amhara militias fought alongside federal troops in the Tigray war, but that alliance collapsed when the federal government reached a peace deal with the TPLF. According to Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), an independent conflict monitor, between January 1, 2022 and May 15, 2026, more than 7,400 attacks have been recorded across the country.

Ethiopia's Contested Election LandscapeAddis Ababa, Ethiopia – Ethiopia will hold general elections on June 1, 2026, with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's governing Prosperity Party (PP) widely expected to secure a decisive victory. A fragmented opposition and violence in parts of the country could keep millions from voting, raising questions about the legitimacy of the electoral process.In the capital, Addis Ababa, the ruling party has closed major roads, including Meskel Square in the city centre, to stage large rallies for supporters, while opposition parties say they have been barred from holding comparable gatherings.Election Dynamics and Government Campaign StrategyThe electoral board claims more than 50 million people have registered to vote out of a population of at least 130 million, though critics dispute these figures, pointing to large parts of the country affected by conflicts in regions including Amhara and Oromia, as well as lingering instability following the Tigray conflict.Several of the country's most populous regions, including Amhara, Oromia, Gambella and Tigray, remain unstable after a civil war that ended in 2022, killing an estimated 600,000 people and displacing millions.Regional Conflicts and Electoral Legitimacy"The polls are primarily a symbolic exercise intended to confer legitimacy on the incumbent," Kjetil Tronvoll, professor at Oslo New University College and an expert on Ethiopia, told Al Jazeera. "Multiparty elections in Ethiopia have never been a genuine contest with the real possibility of changing government, neither under the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) nor under the PP.""With the exclusion of Tigray, the challenge is far bigger than it appears on the surface," Tronvoll said, adding that it reflects Ethiopia's political and territorial crisis. "It is a consequence of the federal government's lack of territorial control and the erosion of federal authority over political institutions in the region."Suppression of Opposition and Media ControlMany opposition voices have been pushed out of formal political space, with armed movements active across Amhara, Oromia and other regions. Tigray has been excluded entirely from the election, as the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), a banned but influential political actor in the region, consolidates its authority.Opposition leader Mistresilasie Tamerat, 23, who heads the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Party (EPRP), says she has been repeatedly denied permits and venues to organize rallies, an issue also highlighted by the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC), a government-established human rights body.Press Freedom Under SiegeMuch of Ethiopia's media and journalists have been warned against critical coverage of the upcoming election, while the media regulatory authority has come under scrutiny for its actions against the press, including the reported deportation of journalists and restrictions affecting outlets such as The Economist and The Africa Report.Ethiopia now ranks 145th out of 180 countries in Reporters Without Borders' 2025 Press Freedom Index, alongside Eritrea, North Korea and Iran near the bottom of the ranking. Addis Standard, a leading critical online publication, has had its licence withdrawn, while The Reporter newspaper, the country's largest-circulation paper, has been warned to align its reporting with government narratives.Diminished Public Engagement and Future OutlookDays before the vote, the mood in Addis Ababa is subdued. There are few campaign signs beyond those of the governing party and little visible political activity, reflecting a mood shaped by double-digit inflation and an influx of displaced people fleeing insecurity elsewhere in the country.Even music perceived as critical of the government, including songs by popular artist Teddy Afro, is increasingly absent from public spaces and radio broadcasts, residents say. For many Ethiopians, the election represents a continuation of the status quo rather than a genuine opportunity for political change, with the government's control over institutions and public space ensuring its anticipated victory.

The fragile peace in Ethiopia is shattering as the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has formally reinstated the Tigray Government Assembly, effectively nullifying the 2022 Pretoria Agreement and signaling a potential return to hostilities.The Collapse of the Pretoria FrameworkThe TPLF announced via Facebook that its central committee had decided to reinstate the suspended parliament, arguing that the federal government had violated the terms of the peace deal. The party accused the federal administration of withholding funds to pay civil servants and provoking armed conflict within the region. Getachew Reda, a senior TPLF figure, described this move as a "clear repudiation" of the post-war structure established by the African Union.Humanitarian Crisis MetricsThe region is facing a catastrophic recovery phase. The previous conflict resulted in at least 600,000 deaths and 5 million displaced persons. Furthermore, humanitarian assessments indicate that up to 80% of the population requires emergency support due to severe funding shortfalls, particularly following recent US aid cuts.Regional Instability and Diplomatic FalloutThe move threatens to reignite the complex web of alliances that defined the previous war, involving the Eritrean army. The breakdown in relations between the TPLF and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who ended the TPLF's decades-long dominance in 2018, suggests a deepening rift that could destabilize the Horn of Africa.Forecast: A Return to Conflict?Analysts predict a high probability of renewed clashes. With the suspension of the peace deal and the federal government accused of violating the Pretoria Agreement, the window for diplomatic resolution is closing. The international community faces a critical test in preventing a humanitarian catastrophe in Tigray as the conflict risks escalating beyond regional borders.

Iran is experiencing the longest nationwide internet blackout ever recorded, according to the global monitoring group NetBlocks. Since the United States and Israel launched their war on Iran on February 28, connectivity has hovered at about 1% of pre‑war levels, effectively cutting the country off from the global web. The blackout follows a prior 20‑day shutdown in January, which coincided with deadly nationwide protests. Combined, these measures mean that Iranian civilians have spent close to two‑thirds of 2026 in digital darkness, relying only on a slow, state‑controlled intranet for basic services and state‑run news. NetBlocks highlighted that while regions such as Myanmar, Sudan, Kashmir and Tigray have endured longer intermittent outages, no other war has forced an entire nation offline to this extent. The monitor added that Iran is the first country to lose previously functional internet connectivity by reverting to a national network. Economic analysts warned that the January shutdown already caused the economy to lose tens of millions of dollars each day in direct damages, with far‑reaching indirect effects. Companies reported that many online businesses could not survive more than three weeks without connectivity, leading to a wave of layoffs and reduced pay raises. One affected worker, Kamran, a product designer in Karaj, said he was dismissed after the latest wave of cuts. He now relies on a local skill‑matching group, but fears competition from thousands of similarly displaced workers. A senior data analyst from a Tehran firm disclosed that the firm is offering lower-than‑expected raises and shifting to three‑month contracts, creating uncertainty about future employment. Compounding the digital crisis, the war has targeted Iran’s steel factories, petrochemical plants and other civilian infrastructure, aggravating pre‑existing problems of high inflation and unemployment. Only a limited segment of the population can access the global internet—either because they are whitelisted by the state or because they pay steep fees for proxy connections that often disappear after a few hours. Government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani stated that internet access is being granted only to those who can “get the voice out,” such as officials, state‑affiliated entities and news agencies. Citizens on the ground describe a grim reality: frequent power outages, uncertainty about water supplies, and an inability to use services like Google Search or AI tools, even as they watch live feeds from space missions that remain inaccessible. In response to the prolonged shutdown, authorities have begun rolling out a tiered system dubbed “Internet Pro.” Business groups have received a “guide to connect to international internet,” urging them to contact a state‑run messaging app, Bale, for registration. Parallel efforts by a major telecom carrier offer one‑year data packages at prices higher than normal plans, while existing providers have not refunded customers for services they cannot deliver. President Masoud Pezeshkian’s administration, which campaigned on unblocking Iran’s internet, has offered no official explanation for the shutdown, leaving both the battered digital sector and the broader economy facing an uncertain future.