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The El Nino Alert The United Nations' climate agency has warned of an increased risk of extreme weather in the coming weeks and months due to the emerging El Nino weather pattern. El Nino: What to Expect The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued the alert in a news release on Tuesday, saying that there was an 80 percent chance of an El Nino event – marked by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean- between June and August and a roughly 90 percent chance of it forming by November. Global Impacts “The science is clear: El Nino is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90 percent certainty,” said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in a video statement. “The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is.” Severe Weather Patterns Bringing worldwide changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns, El Nino is a naturally occurring phenomenon that generally happens every two to seven years and lasts about nine to 12 months. El Nino can trigger increased rainfall in the southern parts of South America and the United States, parts of the Horn of Africa and Central Asia. It can also cause drought in Australia, Central America, Indonesia and parts of South Asia, and spur hurricane formation in the central and eastern Pacific, according to the WMO. Impacts to ‘cross border with devastating speed’ The UN agency predicted this year’s El Nino phenomenon to be “at least moderate – and possibly strong”. “Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed,” said Guterres. Future Outlook The trend could help fuel especially severe wildfires this year, according to researchers at Imperial College London and the World Weather Attribution network of climate scientists. In anticipation, the European Union has announced plans to deploy a record number of firefighters and aircraft in high-risk areas – spanning Cyprus, Greece, Italy, France, Spain and Portugal.

The LeadThe Guatemalan government has firmly denied reports that it agreed to permit United States military strikes against drug traffickers within its borders, while simultaneously confirming its request for security cooperation with Washington. This clarification comes amid growing concerns about US military operations in Latin America and the complex relationship between regional governments and Washington's anti-drug policies.The Government's Position on Military Operations"There is no agreement authorising foreign military operations by any country within national territory," the government of President Bernardo Arevalo stated in a formal release on Thursday. This denial directly responds to a New York Times report citing unnamed sources who claimed Arevalo had agreed to US military action in Guatemala.Accompanying the government statement was a note from a letter by Guatemala's Defense Minister Henry Saenz to his US counterpart Pete Hegseth, dated May 28. The letter reveals that Guatemala "desires to lead, with US assistance, active military operations" against drug groups identified as "designated terrorist organisations" (DTOs) by Washington."In accordance with existing bilateral agreements and arrangements, such combined Guatemala-led operations would further bilateral interests in defeating DTOs and advancing regional and hemispheric security," Saenz wrote in the document.The Regional Context of US Anti-Drug OperationsThe Guatemalan clarification emerges against a backdrop of increasingly assertive US anti-drug policies in Latin America. Under President Donald Trump, the United States has demonstrated a willingness to use military force in the region, including conducting air strikes against alleged drug boats in the Caribbean Sea and Pacific Ocean.These operations have resulted in at least 194 deaths and drawn criticism from rights advocates who characterize them as extrajudicial killings. The US has also taken more direct action, including the abduction of Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro in January, whom it accused of drug trafficking.Following Maduro's removal, his vice president Delcy Rodriguez has improved relations with Washington and allowed greater foreign involvement in Venezuela's oil sector, though the US continues to exert control over the country's oil exports.The Impact on US-Latin America RelationsMany countries in Central and South America have struggled to contain gang violence related to the drug trade, creating a complex security landscape. In January, Guatemala's Arevalo declared a 30-day state of emergency after suspected gang members killed at least 10 police officers, highlighting the severity of the security challenges.Latin American leaders have consistently demonstrated a nuanced approach to US involvement - wary of direct military intervention but open to intelligence sharing and security cooperation. This delicate balance reflects both the genuine security needs of these nations and the historical sensitivities surrounding US intervention in the region.President Arevalo, elected in 2023 on an anticorruption platform, appears to be navigating this complex terrain carefully, seeking assistance while maintaining sovereignty over military operations within Guatemala.Future Outlook for Regional Security CooperationThe situation in Guatemala suggests a likely continuation of this pattern of conditional cooperation. Regional governments will likely continue to seek US assistance in combating drug trafficking and organized crime while resisting direct military operations on their soil.The coming months may see increased diplomatic efforts to define the boundaries of security cooperation, with Guatemala potentially serving as a model for other nations seeking to balance security needs with sovereignty concerns.As the US continues its anti-drug operations in Latin America, the region's response will likely shape the future of hemispheric security policies and determine whether cooperation can be achieved without compromising national sovereignty.

Iran Secures FIFA Approval to Relocate World Cup Camp to TijuanaIran will base its squad in the Mexican border city of Tijuana for the 2026 World Cup after FIFA approved the request to move the training camp from Arizona. The announcement was made by Mehdi Taj, president of the Iran Football Federation, in a video posted on Telegram.Logistics of the New Training Base in TijuanaThe camp is situated near the Pacific Ocean and directly on the Mexico‑United States border, allowing the team to fly directly to Mexico with Iran Air. The move is intended to avoid visa‑related complications stemming from the ongoing US‑Israel conflict.Travel Time and Distance Savings for Group G MatchesIran’s first two Group G games are in Los Angeles (vs New Zealand on June 15 and vs Belgium on June 21). The distance from Tijuana to Los Angeles is roughly a 55‑minute flight, considerably shorter than the route from Arizona. This reduction in travel time is expected to lessen fatigue and logistical costs.June 15 – vs New Zealand in Los AngelesJune 21 – vs Belgium in Los AngelesJune 26 – vs Egypt in SeattleGeopolitical and Visa Implications of the RelocationThe shift addresses the fact that Iranian players and staff had not received US visas less than a month before the tournament. By positioning the camp in Mexico, Iran can bypass US entry requirements while still competing in US venues. FIFA was asked to guarantee visas, security, and fair treatment of the delegation.What the Move Means for Iran’s World Cup ProspectsWith a closer base and fewer travel hurdles, Iran may arrive better prepared for its group matches, potentially improving performance against New Zealand, Belgium, and later Egypt in Seattle on June 26. Analysts suggest the logistical advantage could translate into a more cohesive squad heading into the tournament.

The LeadEleven weeks after the start of the Iran war, the Strait of Hormuz has remained closed to naval traffic, bleeding the global economy far beyond the Gulf. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) maintains an iron grip over this narrow, strategic waterway, while a corresponding United States naval blockade on Iranian ports has failed to reopen it.Before the war began, between 120 and 140 ships travelled through the strait each day, about half of them oil tankers carrying some 20 million barrels of oil between them. Now, only a few vessels whose owners have negotiated with the IRGC are permitted to pass.The Strategic Control of HormuzOn Wednesday, Iran said it coordinated the transit of 26 vessels through the Strait of Hormuz in 24 hours, two days after announcing the formation of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA), a new body to provide "real-time updates" on operations in the strait.Since the announcement of a temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran in April, Iran has been working on formalising a mechanism to charge a transit fee from ships crossing the critical chokepoint, through which 20 percent of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) are shipped during peacetime.Tehran has reportedly already charged fees as high as $2m per ship for transit since the war started. Even though countries opposing Tehran say this is illegal, it may still be less expensive than the overall cost of the closure of the strait each day.The Economic Cost of BlockadeNearly one-fifth of global oil and LNG exports were shipped by Gulf producers through the Strait of Hormuz before the US and Israel bombed Iran on February 28, triggering the Iranian closure of the waterway. The strait is the only waterway linking Gulf producers to the open ocean – there is no other route through which they can ship exports.About 20.3 million barrels per day of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz in peacetime – nearly 27 percent of global maritime oil trade. The lion's share of that crude went to Asian markets.Global LNG trade has been similarly hard hit. On the day before the war broke out, Brent crude – the global benchmark for oil prices – closed at $72.48 per barrel. After Iran closed the waterway on March 4 and began attacks on vessels attempting to sail through, traffic came to a standstill, stranding about 2,000 ships on either side of the strait.In terms of lost oil revenues, this amounts to $114.8bn of losses per day. About 10 billion cubic feet of LNG per day also used to pass through the strait, worth a further $7.8bn.The Cost-Benefit Analysis of Transit FeesFor hundreds of ships stranded in the Gulf with thousands of sailors on board, the cost of remaining anchored is steep, including crew wages, loan repayments, repair and management, coupled with inflated war risk premiums.In turn, Iran has reportedly been charging up to $2m for authorisation to pass. Experts say many will see this as worthwhile purely in terms of monetary cost."There is no doubt that paying Iran is cheaper than a continuous blockade because a sitting tanker bleeds money," said Nader Habibi, an Iranian American economist."It makes sense from an economic point of view, but it is not politically feasible," he added. "The companies are under pressure from the US sanctions and not to make arrangements with Iran. This is not just a purely economic cost-benefit analysis, but long-term considerations that are taken into account."International Legal PerspectivesInternational law protects free transit through strategic waters such as natural straits like Hormuz, barring countries from imposing passage tolls even where the waterways fall entirely into territorial waters, like in the case of Hormuz.However, services such as security controls, inspections and insurance regimes can be charged for. Chargeable fees also partly depend on whether a waterway is a man-made passageway or a natural one.These are three different precedents in maritime traffic flow:Panama Canal: An artificial waterway connecting the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Vessels pass through a unique system of locks that raise and lower vessels across elevated terrain. Since Panama built, maintains and operates the canal, it can charge transit fees based on vessel size, cargo capacity and booking priority. These range from several hundred thousand dollars per transit to some slots sold for millions of dollars.Suez Canal: Another artificial canal, linking the Mediterranean and Red seas. Egypt charges transit fees for the use of canal infrastructure, maintenance and traffic management services through the narrow waterway. Container ships and oil tankers pay from several hundred thousand dollars to more than one million dollars per voyage.Turkiye's Bosporus Strait and Dardanelles: These are different because they are natural straits, rather than man-made canals. Turkiye charges for navigation-related services such as lighthouse operations, rescue readiness, medical support and traffic management – and tightly controls ship scheduling and navigation.Regional Cooperation PossibilitiesIran's newly-formed PGSA published a new map of Hormuz, stretching from Kuh-e Mubarak in Iran to south of Fujairah, in the UAE, at the eastern entrance of the strait, and from the tip of Qeshm Island to Umm al-Quwain at the western entrance.Given how the Iran war has spilled over into the Gulf region – with the UAE taking the brunt of Iranian strikes – economist Mohammad Reza Farzanegan said "regional cooperation with Iran is the most realistic path to stable transit through the Strait of Hormuz."The UAE, Oman, Qatar and Iran will have to work together because their economies require it, he argued. A workable arrangement could include a joint maritime authority, shared monitoring, emergency coordination, environmental protection and service-based contributions for maintaining safe passage."This would give Iran a recognised role in the security of the waterway while giving Persian Gulf economies more predictability," Farzanegan added. "Such a framework is also more realistic than relying on external military enforcement, which has been more a source of trouble for these states."The Future OutlookWhile it may seem that the economics of the closure of the strait are currently skewed towards Iran, Aniseh Tabrizi, an associate fellow on the Middle East and North Africa Programme at think tank Chatham House, noted that "the economics by itself is not going to be the driver to change calculation or move from the current standpoint."She emphasized that Iran and the US need to reach a "diplomatic compromise, with other calculations linked in to the economic factor", before there can be an end to the energy supply crisis.Farzanegan added that if the world expects stable access to the Strait of Hormuz, then paying Iran could well be accepted as the price of keeping the vital waterway predictable. "From an economic perspective, a negotiated transit arrangement [with Iran] now makes more sense than continued closure," he concluded.

The Flood Crisis in Southern and Central China At least 10 people have died after heavy rains caused widespread flooding and landslides across southern and central China. Weather Alerts and Warnings The China Meteorological Administration (CMA) maintained elevated orange alerts on Tuesday for heavy rain and severe stormy weather, warning that the huge precipitation system has entered its strongest, most destructive stage. Flood Control and Emergency Response China’s State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters officially activated a Level-IV emergency response, the initial tier to accelerate state-level disaster relief for floods, in Hunan and Guangxi, while maintaining the same emergency tier for Hubei, Chongqing, and Guizhou. Impact of the Floods The torrential downpours have shattered multiple local historical records, particularly in the central Hubei province. State broadcaster CCTV reported that 337 townships in Hubei recorded more than 100mm of rain within a 48-hour window. In Guangxi, six people died after a pick-up truck carrying 15 passengers fell into a swollen river amid heavy rainfall. In Hubei, three people were killed by flash floods in a low-lying village. Another death was recorded in southern Hunan province. Relocation and Emergency Measures Authorities have suspended schools, businesses, and transport services in affected areas. Emergency responses are under way, and residents in parts of Hubei and Hunan are actively being relocated. Cause of the Unusually Large Rainfall Meteorologists attributed the unusually large area of intense rainfall to the convergence of moisture from the Bay of Bengal, the South China Sea, and the Pacific Ocean. They said the slow-moving nature of the weather system had exacerbated cumulative rainfall totals. Forecast and Future Outlook The National Meteorological Centre expects severe weather to move east and south over the next two days, with the heaviest rainfall forecast along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from Wednesday.

The United States military announced on Tuesday that a missile strike carried out by U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) killed four people aboard a stationary vessel in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The attack, captured in a video showing a boat engulfed in flames, represents the fourth lethal engagement in the region within a four‑day span. SOUTHCOM, which oversees U.S. operations across Latin America and the Caribbean, labeled the deceased as “narco‑terrorists.” No evidence was provided to substantiate this claim, and the command offered only vague intelligence indicating the boat was traveling along known drug‑trafficking routes. This latest strike raises the cumulative death toll from the campaign to at least 175 individuals since early September, when former President Donald Trump authorized the operation to disrupt alleged cartel shipments to the United States. In the preceding 48 hours, two people were killed in a Monday strike and five more in two separate Saturday attacks, also targeting vessels in the eastern Pacific. The U.S. Coast Guard has reportedly halted the search for a survivor from the Saturday incidents. International legal scholars and human‑rights organizations argue that the U.S. actions constitute extrajudicial killings in international waters, often targeting civilian fishing boats rather than confirmed drug‑smuggling vessels. Legal experts stress that, even if some boats are involved in narcotics transport, the appropriate response should be prosecution under the rule of law, not lethal force. Critics also highlight the limited impact of the strikes on the U.S. fentanyl crisis, noting that the majority of the drug enters the United States via overland routes from Mexico, with precursors sourced from China and India. As the controversy deepens, questions linger about the legality, efficacy, and broader geopolitical ramifications of the U.S. maritime campaign against alleged narco‑terrorist activity in the Pacific.

Super Typhoon Sinlaku, a powerful storm system, is bearing down on the remote Mariana Islands in the northern Pacific Ocean. The storm, which formed on April 9, has sustained winds of 278 km/hour (173 mph) and is moving at a slow pace of about 14 km/hour (9 mph).The super storm was approximately 68 nautical miles (126km) southeast of the island of Saipan in the Northern Mariana Islands at about midday on Tuesday local time. While Sinlaku appears to be weakening and could pass by the Northern Mariana Islands with the strength of a Category 4 or Category 5 storm, it still remains extremely dangerous.The Guam’s Office of Civil Defence warned of widespread rain and flooding along with destructive winds that could cause power outages. Although Guam will likely avoid a direct hit from Sinlaku, the island will still encounter high winds of up to 64 to 80 km/hour (40 to 50 mph) and gusts of up to 105 km/hour (65 mph).The office also warned the island’s 170,000 residents to stay out of the water, as dangerous sea conditions are expected to last until Thursday. Before turning towards Guam and the Northern Marianas, the storm left significant damage to the outer islands and atolls of Chuuk in the Federated States of Micronesia.

Experts are closely monitoring climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean, which indicate a high chance of El Niño developing this summer. A strong El Niño event could lead to severe weather conditions, including super-charged rainstorms and droughts, depending on the region. A 'super El Niño' could push 2027 to break global heat records, according to climate scientists. This phenomenon occurs when ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean warm up, leading to significant impacts on global weather patterns. El Niño is characterized by warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It's one of three states scientists observe: La Niña, conversely, happens when sea surface temperatures are below average, and neutral conditions are defined when neither El Niño or La Niña are present and surface temperatures are about average. The 'El Niño-southern oscillation' (Enso) tends to develop during spring in the northern hemisphere and shifts every three to seven years. Warming and cooling at sea surface during El Niño and La Niña can range from 1C to 3C, and have enormous effects on precipitation, drought, heat, and climate disasters in different regions. Conditions are currently shifting from La Niña to a neutral pattern, according to the latest outlook from the US Climate Prediction Center. Models show a 62% chance El Niño will emerge this summer and linger until at least the end of the year. A super El Niño that occurred in 2015 brought severe drought in Ethiopia, water supply shortages in Puerto Rico, and smashed records after unleashing a vicious hurricane season in the central North Pacific. A 'super' El Niño means one that is stronger, typically defined by sea surface temperatures spiking up to at least 2C. Noaa scientists have given a 1 in 4 chance that this could happen by fall or winter, with the caveat that spring forecasts are sometimes muddled. Transitions in conditions that happen in the spring can make outcomes a bit harder to predict. Experts warn that a strong or super El Niño could lead to drought and heat across Australia, southern and central Africa, India, and parts of South America. Heavy precipitation, meanwhile, could hit the southern tier of the US, parts of the Middle East, and south-central Asia.

NASA's Artemis II mission has achieved a major milestone with the successful return of its four astronauts to Earth, marking the end of a 10-day journey that took them farther into space than any human has gone before. The crew, comprising NASA astronauts Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, and Christina Koch, along with Canadian astronaut Jeremy Hansen, completed a parachute landing in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of California at 5:07 pm Pacific time (00:07 GMT). This mission is a critical step towards future lunar exploration, particularly Artemis IV, which aims to land astronauts on the lunar surface for the first time since the Apollo era. The Artemis II mission tested essential technologies for deep space travel, including the performance of the Orion capsule's heat shield, navigation systems, and life-support technology. The mission also marked several historic firsts: Glover became the first person of color to travel around the moon, Koch the first woman, and Hansen the first non-American. During their journey, the crew witnessed a solar eclipse and meteorite impacts, and shared vivid descriptions of the lunar surface. Mission commander Wiseman reflected on the mission's significance, stating, "what we really hoped in our soul is that we could, for just a moment, have the world pause — and remember that this is a beautiful planet in a very special place in our universe".