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The Lead The trade war between the US and China is expected to be a long and complex one, with far-reaching consequences for the global economy. While the US goal of curbing China's export dominance is justified, Trump's strategy of scattershot protectionism and belligerence against potential allies is flawed. China's Export Juggernaut China accounts for about a third of the world's manufacturing output, and its share of global manufacturing exports has risen from 3% to 20% over the past few decades. The country has become a dominant player in the global supply chain, with a near-monopoly on critical commodities and products such as pharmaceutical components, critical minerals, and essential chips. The Data Analysis China's share of global manufacturing output: about 33% China's share of global manufacturing exports: 20% China's current account surplus: 3.8% of GDP (official), up to 5% (according to some analysts) The Impact Analysis The trade war will come at a cost to economic wellbeing, with prices of consumer goods rising as countries block imports from China. Manufacturers will have to cope with pricier Chinese inputs, and Chinese exporters will have a harder time finding markets to place their products. The risk of China leveraging its dominance in critical commodities and products to retaliate against countries that block its products or seek to shake its dominance is high. The Prediction A more coordinated approach with allies and targeted tariffs could help mitigate economic pain. However, even a better strategy will not avoid economic pain entirely. The US, Europe, and other major economies will need to build alternative sources of critical commodities and other inputs, a process that will be slow, tortuous, and dangerous.

India's Pragmatic Diplomacy in a Fractured RegionIn a move underscoring its neighborhood-first foreign policy, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hosted Myanmar’s military leader Min Aung Hlaing in New Delhi. The meeting highlights India's strategic decision to prioritize regional stability and border security over Western-led isolation of the junta, arguing that sustained dialogue is the most effective way to manage bilateral interests.The New Delhi Summit and Strategic PosturingThe visit marks Min Aung Hlaing’s first trip to India since assuming the presidency in April 2026, following a disputed election that cemented his power after the 2021 coup. Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri emphasized that New Delhi’s policy is not an endorsement of Myanmar's internal politics, noting that history shows disengagement is counterproductive. However, the visit drew sharp criticism from pro-democracy factions. Zin Mar Aung, foreign minister of the shadow National Unity Government (NUG), urged India to weigh the implications of normalizing military rule.February 2021: Myanmar military overthrows the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi.April 2026: Min Aung Hlaing sworn in as president after a widely criticized election.May 2026: NUG sends a formal letter to India's External Affairs Minister expressing concern over the impending visit.June 2026: Min Aung Hlaing meets PM Modi in New Delhi to discuss bilateral and strategic ties.Quantifying the Bilateral TiesThe foundation of the India-Myanmar relationship is built on substantial geographic and economic realities. The two nations share a massive 1,643-kilometre (1,020-mile) border and a maritime boundary in the Bay of Bengal. Bilateral trade reached $1.95 billion in the 2025-2026 fiscal year. Furthermore, security cooperation has yielded tangible results, with the two nations collaborating to rescue more than 2,400 Indian nationals from cybercrime and human trafficking syndicates in Myanmar over the past 18 months.Geopolitical Ramifications of the EngagementBy engaging with the junta, India is making a calculated geopolitical bet. While Western nations have sought to isolate the regime, New Delhi recognizes that a destabilized Myanmar directly impacts Indian security, particularly regarding armed rebel groups operating near the border. The rise of resistance forces, such as the People’s Defence Force (PDF), which has captured swaths of the country, adds layers of complexity to regional security. India's engagement ensures it maintains a channel of influence to protect its strategic interests and manage the fallout of the ongoing multi-front civil war.Future Trajectory of Indo-Myanmar CooperationLooking ahead, the summit sets the stage for an acceleration in specific strategic sectors. Both nations have agreed to deepen collaboration in trade, energy, and critical minerals, alongside efforts to accelerate major connectivity projects. Expect enhanced intelligence sharing and joint efforts to dismantle cross-border scam networks. As Myanmar's internal conflict persists, India will likely continue its pragmatic approach: maintaining state-to-state engagement with the ruling junta to secure its borders and economic interests, while avoiding direct commentary on Myanmar's internal political arrangements.

The Lobito Corridor: A New Direction in US-Africa Ties When veteran naval officer Frank Garcia was appointed by the United States Senate as assistant secretary of state for African affairs, he praised the administration of Donald Trump for affirming Washington’s engagement in “trade and investment for mutual benefit” in the African continent. In particular, Garcia highlighted the Lobito Corridor – a strategic 1,300km (810-mile) rail and transport route linking the Atlantic port of Lobito in Angola to the mineral-rich regions of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Zambia – as an example of this new direction during his confirmation hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on March 5. The Event Details The Lobito Corridor connects the mineral-rich Copperbelt to the Atlantic Ocean via Angola’s Lobito Port, amid a global surge in demand for critical minerals to secure supply chains for the global energy transition. Its foundational infrastructure, the Benguela Railway, was first developed in 1902 as a colonial trade corridor to transport raw minerals from Africa’s inland to international markets in Europe and the Americas. The Data Analysis The US government committed billions of dollars to the initiative to increase Lobito’s transport capacity and reduce the cost of moving critical minerals. In 2022, the US – under former President Joe Biden – the European Union and other G7 members signed a memorandum of understanding pledging to mobilise $600bn for infrastructure development over five years, of which the US committed $200bn. The Impact Analysis For some, the Lobito Corridor is an example of how US investments can boost Africa’s regional trade, create jobs, and improve infrastructure while offering investment opportunities. But critics say it mainly serves US efforts to secure alternative supply chains for critical minerals needed for the manufacture of electric vehicles, clean energy technologies and defence, furthering regional instability and conflicts. The Prediction “There is a real danger that the corridor exacerbates the crises [in conflict-torn African nations], rather than offering solutions,” Mike Jennings, professor of global development at SOAS University of London, told Al Jazeera. “And its implementation feels very neocolonial in practice, spirit and objectives.”

The India-US Critical Minerals Framework India and the United States have signed a framework agreement to secure supplies of critical minerals and rare earths, including their mining and processing, according to the Indian Ministry of External Affairs and the US embassy in India. What are Critical Minerals and Why are They Significant? Critical minerals are nonfuel minerals used to manufacture batteries, clocks, wiring, military hardware, semiconductors, and other technological products. The US describes them as “essential to the economic or national security of the US” and having “a supply chain vulnerable to disruption”. The Data Analysis: Critical Minerals Stockpile India has 13.15 million tonnes of monazite, a phosphate mineral that contains rare earth oxides, one of the main natural sources of rare earths. The Indian government estimated that the country’s monazite contains 7.23 million tonnes of rare earth oxides (REOs). By comparison, a US Geological Survey report estimated that China has an estimated 44 million tonnes of REOs in its reserves, almost half of the world’s known reserves. The Impact Analysis: Reducing Reliance on China The US and other countries rely heavily on China for these minerals, and Washington, especially under President Donald Trump, has pushed to diversify US sourcing of these minerals to reduce reliance on China. The deal matters for India because its ambitions for critical minerals development require financing, and secure offtake. The Prediction: Future Cooperation and Investment The Quad countries have also agreed to share information on good practices and technical approaches for permitting, licensing, and other regulatory processes. They also agreed to cooperate on recycling and recovery of critical minerals, including during processing, to strengthen supply chains and promote the recycling of critical minerals among Quad partners and “like‑minded” countries.

Mark Carney, Canada’s prime minister, called for a renewed US‑Canada partnership in a New York speech, framing it as a way to “help make America great again” and to boost Canada’s strategic autonomy ahead of the USMCA review.Carney Proposes a “True Partnership” in New York SpeechSpeaking in New York on Thursday, Carney said the two nations need a “true partnership” that re‑imagines cooperation in sectors under intense global competition. He argued that diversification away from the United States must be balanced with deeper collaboration on shared challenges.Trade Numbers Highlight Canada’s Strategic ValueCarney backed his call with striking statistics that underscore Canada’s importance to the U.S. economy:Canadian aluminium exports to the U.S. equal the energy output of 10 Hoover dams.Canada supplies 99% of U.S. natural‑gas imports, 85% of electricity imports and 60% of crude‑oil imports.Canada is the United States’ biggest customer for automobiles, outpacing China, Japan and Germany combined.Canada holds vast reserves of potash, nickel, copper and uranium, critical for food security, defence and AI‑driven energy demand.Implications for North American Trade and GeopoliticsThe speech signals a shift from confrontational rhetoric—exemplified by former President Donald Trump’s trade war and talk of annexation—to a strategic alignment that could reshape North‑American supply chains. By positioning Canada as a reliable source of critical minerals and energy, Carney aims to reduce U.S. vulnerability to “weaponised integration” and to counteract the “American hegemony” narrative he raised at Davos.What the Next USMCA Review Could Mean for Bilateral TiesThe mandatory USMCA review in July will test whether the proposed partnership can translate into concrete policy changes. If Canada’s proposals on aluminium, steel, automotive integration and critical minerals are embraced, the agreement could evolve into a deeper economic bloc, strengthening both nations’ competitiveness against China and other global rivals. Conversely, a failure to reach consensus may reignite tariff disputes and weaken the “strategic autonomy” Carney seeks.

Deadly Train Bomb in Balochistan Kills DozensAt least 24 people were killed and more than 50 injured when a suicide car bomb detonated on a train carrying soldiers in Quetta, capital of the southwestern Pakistani province of Balochistan. The attack occurred during Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's four-day visit to China, just before his meeting with China's President Xi Jinping to mark 75 years of diplomatic ties between the two nations.Sunday's Devastating Attack on Military TrainAccording to reports from the scene, several houses and buildings adjacent to the railway line were severely damaged in the blast, which caused train carriages to overturn and catch fire. A state of emergency was declared at public hospitals in Quetta, with doctors and medical staff ordered to remain on duty. Footage shared online showed charred vehicles and train carriages lying on their sides, with thick plumes of black smoke rising into the sky.Pakistan's Prime Minister Sharif condemned the attack in a post on X, stating: "Such cowardly acts of terrorism cannot weaken the resolve of the people of Pakistan. We remain steadfast in our determination to eliminate terrorism in all its forms and manifestations."Escalating Violence: Statistics on Balochistan ConflictResearch from the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies indicates Balochistan recorded at least 254 attacks in 2025 – roughly 26 percent more than in 2024. A December 2025 report by ACLED found that separatists had intensified attacks, with the number of attacks using improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and grenades growing by more than 65 percent in the first 11 months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.The Global Terrorism Index report for 2026 found increased Baloch armed group activity in Pakistan, with the BLA responsible for Pakistan's largest terror attack of 2025 – the hijacking of the Jaffar Express train in March, which resulted in six military personnel killed and hundreds of passengers taken hostage.Who Are the BLA and Major Baloch Armed Groups?The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), which has a suicide squad called the Majeed Brigade, is the largest of several ethnic separatist groups fighting the federal government. It says it is fighting for the independence of Balochistan, Pakistan's poorest region despite its wealth of natural resources. The BLA often targets infrastructure and security forces but has also struck in other areas, including Karachi.The BLA has deployed women suicide bombers and was designated a "foreign terrorist organisation" by the United States in August 2025. The group was also at the center of tit-for-tat strikes in 2024 between Iran and Pakistan, bringing the neighbors to the brink of war.The Baloch Cause: Resources and MarginalizationHome to about 15 million of Pakistan's roughly 240 million people, Balochistan is the country's poorest region despite its wealth of natural resources, including coal, gold, copper, and gas. These resources generate significant revenue for the federal government – unfairly, according to the BLA, which wants Balochistan's natural wealth to belong to its people.The province is home to one of Pakistan's major deep-sea ports at Gwadar, a crucial trade corridor for China's $65 billion investment in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a wing of President Xi Jinping's Belt and Road initiative. It also contains key mining projects, including Reko Diq, believed to be one of the world's largest gold and copper mines.Regional Stability and International Investment at RiskThe attack comes as Pakistan attempts to strengthen economic and security cooperation with China – something the BLA strongly opposes. The movement poses a challenge to Pakistan's efforts to retain Chinese and American investment, potentially revealing deeper instability in the region."The persistence of insurgency has had implications for Pakistan's wider political system," explained Yunas Samad, an emeritus professor of South Asian Studies. "Security concerns in Balochistan have increasingly shaped governance and political discourse, strengthening the role of the military and security establishment in national affairs and undermining the democratisation process."Internationally, the issue matters because Pakistan remains a nuclear-armed state of enormous strategic importance. Any significant escalation in internal instability in a country with nuclear capabilities inevitably attracts international concern.Rare-Earth Minerals and Geopolitical CompetitionAnother major issue is that geological assessments suggest Balochistan contains 12 of the 17 rare-earth minerals on the periodic table. Rare earths are critical minerals used to manufacture a vast array of modern items, including batteries, military hardware, smartphones, and semiconductors.Since the start of his second term, US President Donald Trump has pushed plans to diversify Washington's stockpile of critical minerals to reduce reliance on China, which currently dominates the supply and processing of the world's rare-earth minerals. In December 2025, the US announced a $1.25 billion investment in critical minerals mining at Reko Diq to drive "economic growth in Balochistan."Future Outlook for Balochistan's ConflictWhether the current surge in attacks constitutes an entirely "new phase" of the conflict remains unclear. However, it does appear to indicate a degree of resurgence in militant capability and confidence among sections of the Baloch insurgency."The fact that this latest incident nevertheless occurred may suggest that militant groups retain a significant operational capability despite security efforts," noted Samad. "Whether this constitutes an entirely 'new phase' is perhaps too strong a conclusion at present. However, it does appear to indicate a degree of resurgence in militant capability and confidence among sections of the Baloch insurgency."The Baloch separatist movement remains one of the major unresolved questions over Pakistan's statehood, serving as a constant reminder of the challenges the Pakistani state faces in maintaining unity and stability in the region.

Senate Confirms Garcia as Top Africa DiplomatThe US Senate this week confirmed veteran naval officer Frank Garcia as Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, ending a vacancy in Washington's top Africa-focused diplomatic post that lasted more than a year. The approval came as part of a wider bloc vote covering 49 nominees put forward by the Trump administration.The role is the most senior US diplomatic position in Africa, overseeing Washington's foreign policy and managing relations with all 54 African states.Garcia's Background and Confirmation ProcessGarcia, a former US Navy officer, served for 28 years. He spent approximately 15 years working with the House Intelligence Committee, focusing on African affairs and taking part in multiple visits to the continent alongside congressional delegations.He also served as chief of staff at the National Reconnaissance Office, the US agency responsible for designing and operating intelligence satellites. Between 2016 and 2021, he headed Via Stelle, a defense and intelligence consultancy.Garcia's nomination was approved by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in March by 16 votes to six, with all opposition coming from Democratic senators at that stage. He was later confirmed by the full Senate, with several Democrats ultimately supporting the final vote.Geopolitical Significance of the AppointmentGarcia's appointment fills a longstanding gap in one of Washington's most strategically important diplomatic roles in Africa, at a time of growing global competition for influence across the continent. His profile has drawn scrutiny in some circles, with Nigerian newspaper The Whistler describing him as largely unknown among African policy and academic communities, noting that he has no significant published work on African affairs.The confirmation comes as the United States faces increasing competition with China and other powers for influence in Africa, particularly over access to critical minerals needed for clean energy technologies and electric vehicles.Shift from Aid to Trade in US Africa PolicyDuring his confirmation hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on March 5, Garcia said US policy in Africa had for too long prioritised aid and dependency, arguing that past commitments were often open-ended and 'focused on spreading divisive ideologies.'He said the administration, working through Secretary of State Marco Rubio, is shifting US engagement towards 'trade and investment for mutual benefit,' anchored in what he described as core US national interests and aligned with the 'America First' approach.Garcia pointed to the Lobito Corridor as an example of the new direction. He described the project as a model linking job creation, regional integration, and expanded commercial ties. He also said all US spending, including humanitarian and health assistance, would be assessed through the lens of its contribution to national security and economic interests.Future of US-Africa Relations Under New LeadershipThe Lobito Corridor, a strategic 1,300km (810-mile) rail and transport route linking the Atlantic port of Lobito in Angola to the mineral-rich regions of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia, represents the new direction of US policy in Africa.The corridor is being upgraded to move copper, cobalt, and other critical minerals more quickly from Central Africa to global markets, placing it at the centre of growing geopolitical competition over resources needed for electric vehicles and clean energy technologies.By offering a faster westward export route to the Atlantic, the project aims to reduce reliance on longer and costlier routes through southern and eastern Africa. The United States and European allies are backing the corridor as part of efforts to secure alternative supply chains for critical minerals, while China, which already holds significant influence over mining and infrastructure networks across Central and Southern Africa, remains a key competitor.That has turned the corridor into part of a broader contest over who controls access to Africa's strategic resources, with Garcia's appointment signaling a more assertive US approach to securing these vital resources and economic opportunities.

Signing of the Armenia‑US Strategic Partnership in YerevanArmenia and the United States signed a strategic partnership agreement on May 26, 2026 in Yerevan, just weeks before parliamentary elections. The ceremony was attended by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, and included a framework on critical minerals and a 43‑km transit corridor dubbed the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP).Partnership signed amid rising challenge from pro‑Russia parties to Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.TRIPP corridor will link southern Armenia to Azerbaijan’s exclave Nakhchivan and onward to Turkey.U.S. State Department grants a 74 % share in the “TRIPP Development Company” to American firms.Economic Stakes: Critical Minerals and the TRIPP CorridorThe agreement emphasizes cooperation on critical minerals, a sector the U.S. views as strategic for technology supply chains. By securing a majority stake in the development company, American investors aim to tap Armenia’s mining potential while providing revenue streams for Yerevan.Geopolitical Ripple Effects Ahead of Armenian ElectionsThe timing intensifies the domestic debate over Armenia’s orientation. While Pashinyan has been pivoting toward the West since the 2023 Nagorno‑Karabakh conflict, Russia warns of possible gas price hikes if Yerevan deepens ties with Washington. The partnership also reinforces U.S. influence in a region traditionally dominated by Moscow.What the Partnership Means for Armenia’s Future AlignmentAnalysts expect the deal to bolster Pashinyan’s pro‑Western platform, potentially swaying undecided voters. However, sustained Russian economic pressure could force Yerevan to balance both powers. In the medium term, the TRIPP corridor may become a tangible symbol of Armenia’s shift toward Euro‑Atlantic integration.

The latest Profundo analysis, commissioned by Rainforest Foundation Norway, reveals that accelerating extraction of critical minerals, biofuels and pulp is compounding traditional threats like cattle ranching and logging, driving the world’s largest rainforests toward a breaking point.Report Highlights Escalating Resource Extraction Threats to RainforestsThe study tracks commodity pressures across the Amazon, Congo Basin and Southeast Asia, showing how mining, oil‑gas expansion, and biofuel agriculture together create a “compounding assault” on forest ecosystems.Mining footprints are larger than previously estimated due to water pollution and infrastructure sprawl.Between 10% and one‑third of global forests are already affected, with the share set to rise.Key interviewees include Ingrid Turgen and Barbara Kuepper of Rainforest Foundation Norway.Quantified Deforestation Projections and Commodity PressuresSpecific forecasts illustrate the scale of upcoming loss:57,000 sq km of Amazon forest could disappear by 2034 if Brazil’s 10.2% beef‑production increase proceeds.Open‑pit gold mines already cover 1.9 m ha in the Amazon; projected demand could add 375 sq km of deforestation by 2028.Electric‑vehicle battery minerals may trigger 1,500‑4,700 sq km of forest loss by 2050.Biofuel demand could require an extra 52 m ha of cropland, clearing up to 35,000 sq km of Amazon vegetation by 2035.Broader Ecological and Climate ImplicationsThe combined pressures erode the forests’ ability to regulate temperature, store carbon, recycle water and sustain biodiversity. Secondary effects extend up to 50 km from mines, disproportionately affecting Indigenous territories and critical carbon sinks such as the Cuvette Centrale peatlands.Future Outlook and Policy RecommendationsAuthors stress that recycling alone cannot offset the scale of demand. They propose:Greater transparency and traceability in global supply chains.Stronger enforcement of environmental regulations in extraction zones.Demand‑reduction strategies in consumer markets, especially for fast‑fashion viscose, paper‑based packaging, and biofuel feedstocks.Without decisive action, the report warns that the Amazon, Congo and Southeast Asian rainforests could face “a pretty bleak scenario” within the next decade.